1.6月6日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.31%，标普500指数期货涨0.40%，纳指期货涨0.41%。 | ■ US 30 | 42,452.50 | | T | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ US 500 | 5,962.80 | 5,967.60 5,924.60 | | | 틀 US Tech 100 | 21,636.10 | 21,661.30 21,445.60 | | 2.截至发稿，德国DAX指数跌0.23%，英国富时100指数跌0.05%，法国CAC40指数跌0.02%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.03%。 | 3.截至发稿，WTI原油跌0.13%，报63.29美元/桶。布伦特原油跌0.08%，报65.29美元/桶。 | | --- | 市场消息 AI增长动能放缓?博通(AVGO.US)Q2营收创新高，但Q3指引未达最乐观预期。芯片巨头博通公布了一份超预期的第二财季业绩，但对第三财季的指引不够惊 艳令一些投资者感到失望。财报显示，在截至5月4日的第二财季，博通销售额同比增长20%至150亿美元，略高于分析师平均预期的149.6亿美元 ...

放眼全球市场，自美国关税政策调整后，整个运动行业都受到了强烈的冲击。耐克2025财年第一季度北 美市场收入在汇率不变基础上同比下降11%；阿迪达斯2025财年第一季度北美地区的销售额仅增长 3%；彪马2025年第一季度北美地区销售额下滑11.1%；Geox健乐士2024年财年业绩中北美市场营收下 降11.9%...... 21世纪经济报道记者 高江虹 实习生 魏琳 北京报道 6月6日，加拿大运动品牌lululemon（纳斯达克证券代码：LULU）发布了2025财年第一季度财报，展现 强劲的增长势头。在第一季度，公司全球净营收同比增长7%至24亿美元，在各个渠道、品类，以及包 括美国在内的所有市场均实现了增长。其中，国际业务净营收增长19%，中国市场业务净营收同比增长 21%，在固定美元汇率基础上，净营收同比增长22%。 值得注意的是，尽管财报数据显示美洲地区净营收增长3%，但受到美国新一轮关税政策带来的风险， 美洲地区的可比销售额下降2%，按不变汇率计算下降1%。 而从纵向对比来看，这已不是lululemon第一次在北美市场上业绩表现不佳，2024财年全年美洲地区净 营收增长4%，显示出美洲市场消费疲软。Lu ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights lululemon's strong financial performance in Q1 of FY2025, with global net revenue increasing by 7% to $2.4 billion, and international business net revenue growing by 19% [2] - In the China market, lululemon's net revenue for Q1 FY2025 increased by 21% year-over-year, with a 22% increase on a constant dollar basis [2] - CEO Calvin McDonald emphasized the company's robust growth in China and other international markets, attributing success to a combination of high-performance products and community engagement [2] Group 2 - For Q2 FY2025, lululemon expects net revenue to be between $2.535 billion and $2.560 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately 7% to 8% [3] - The company projects FY2025 net revenue to be between $11.150 billion and $11.300 billion, indicating a growth of about 5% to 7%, or 7% to 8% when excluding the 53rd week [3] - Expected diluted earnings per share for FY2025 are projected to be between $14.58 and $14.78 [3]

Group 1 - Major stock index futures are showing positive movements, with Dow futures up 0.37%, S&P 500 futures up 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.34% [1] - Tesla's stock rebounded over 6% in pre-market trading, surpassing the $300 mark, following reports of a scheduled call between Trump and Musk to avoid escalating conflicts [1] - Li Auto's stock rose over 1.2% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs raised its target price to $35.3 [1] - Circle, referred to as the "first stock of stablecoin," continued to rise by 11% in pre-market trading after a 165% increase on its first day of trading [1] - Lululemon's stock fell over 21% in pre-market trading after the company lowered its full-year profit guidance, citing decreased store traffic in the Americas due to economic uncertainty and inflation pressures [1] - Virgin Galactic's stock increased over 6% in pre-market trading as the company announced plans to resume commercial space flights, entering a "new phase" in the space tourism sector [1] Group 2 - Trump Media & Technology Group has submitted an S-1 registration for a "Truth Social Bitcoin ETF," which aims to directly hold Bitcoin and reflect its price performance upon approval for listing on the NYSE [2] - Apple's App Store facilitated $1.3 trillion in developer revenue and sales in 2024, according to a new study released on the company's official website [2] - BlackRock is reportedly planning a second round of layoffs this year, with around 300 employees expected to be affected, which is over 1% of its total workforce of approximately 22,600 as of March 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. trade deficit significantly narrowed to $61.6 billion in April 2025, the lowest since September 2023, down from $138.3 billion in March [2] - A major reason for the reduction in the trade deficit was a notable decline in the value of U.S. imports, which fell by 16.3% month-over-month to $351 billion [2] - The decline in imports may indicate weakening demand expectations, which is not a positive sign for economic outlook [4] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 8,000 to 247,000, the highest since October 2024, reflecting signs of a softening job market amid uncertainty from tariff policies [4] - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 was reported at 48.5, indicating economic contraction as it remains below the neutral level of 50 [4] - The annualized core inflation rate in April 2025 was steady at 2.8%, but the impact of tariff policies may lead to rising consumer price indices, complicating future inflation targets [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point rate cut on June 5, signaling the potential end of its monetary policy cycle, which contrasts with the U.S. Federal Reserve's stance [5] - Despite more rate cuts in the Eurozone, the euro remains strong against the dollar, reflecting concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [5] Group 4 - U.S. stock indices weakened on June 5, with economic performance being a significant drag on market performance [7] - Tesla's stock dropped 14.26% due to escalating tensions between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, resulting in a market cap loss of over $150 billion [7] - Lululemon's first-quarter earnings exceeded expectations, but the outlook was negatively impacted by tariff policies, leading to a 22.37% drop in stock price post-earnings [8]

Core Insights - Lululemon reported a 7% year-over-year increase in global net revenue for Q1 FY2025, reaching $2.4 billion, with international revenue up 19% and revenue from mainland China up 21% [1] - CEO Calvin McDonald highlighted the company's resilient business model and strong product innovation, which contributed to growth across all channels and markets [1] - The company's inventory increased by 23% year-over-year, reaching $1.7 billion at the end of Q1 FY2025 [1] Revenue Projections - For Q2 FY2025, Lululemon expects net revenue to be between $2.535 billion and $2.560 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 7% to 8% [2] - The company projects full-year net revenue for FY2025 to be between $11.15 billion and $11.30 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of about 5% to 7% [2] - Expected diluted earnings per share for FY2025 is projected to be between $14.58 and $14.78 [2]

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3877.56 | ↑0.23 | | 2317.5 | | | | | | IF2506 | 3852 | ↑0.21 | -25.56 | 569.7 | 49359 | ↑1872 | 116859 | ↑448 | | IF2507 | 3813.2 | ↑0.22 | -64.36 | 37.8 | 3309 | ↓332 | 14077 | ↑518 | | IF2509 | 3776 | ↑0.15 | -101.56 | 157.3 | 13900 | ↓810 | 80891 | ↑711 | | IF25 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon Athletica's Q1 2025 earnings report and lowered full-year profit guidance have raised concerns about intense competition and tariff policies undermining the company's growth ambitions, leading to a significant stock drop of 23% post-announcement [1] Financial Performance - Q1 net revenue increased by 7% year-over-year to $2.37 billion, slightly above analyst expectations of $2.36 billion - Comparable sales growth was 1%, below the analyst average expectation of 2.8% - Revenue growth in the Americas was 3%, with comparable sales down 2%; international market revenue grew by 19%, with comparable sales up 6% [1] - Gross profit rose by 8% to $1.383 billion, with a gross margin of 58.3%, up from 57.7% year-over-year - Operating profit was $439 million, a 1% increase year-over-year, but the operating margin decreased by 110 basis points to 18.5% - Net profit was $314 million, down from $321 million year-over-year, with diluted earnings per share of $2.60, exceeding analyst expectations of $2.58 [1] Future Outlook - For Q2, Lululemon expects revenue between $2.54 billion and $2.56 billion, with analyst expectations at $2.56 billion; EPS is projected between $2.85 and $2.90, while analysts expect $3.29 [1] - For the full year 2025, revenue is expected to be between $11.15 billion and $11.3 billion, with analyst expectations at $11.24 billion; EPS is projected between $14.58 and $14.78, down from previous guidance of $14.95 to $15.15, with analyst expectations at $14.89 [2] Competitive Landscape and Challenges - The CEO expressed dissatisfaction with growth in the U.S. market, noting that consumers are more cautious and selective in their purchasing decisions, which has been a recurring theme in previous reports [2] - The company plans to strategically raise prices on select products to mitigate tariff impacts, with adjustments starting in the latter half of the current quarter and extending into Q3 [3] - Lululemon is attempting to boost demand by entering new product categories and expanding into running, tennis, and golf, while facing changing fashion trends favoring looser styles over its signature tight yoga pants [3][4] Product Performance - The company is satisfied with the early performance of new products, including high-waisted pants and athletic shorts; however, analysts note that tariff pressures and weak store traffic overshadow any positive feedback from new offerings [4]

Core Viewpoint - PVH's stock has dropped nearly 20% after lowering its full-year guidance despite exceeding Q1 expectations, raising questions about potential investment opportunities in the premium retailer's stock [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - PVH, formerly known as Phillips-Van Heusen Corporation, operates iconic fashion brands like Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, specializing in a wide range of apparel and accessories sold globally [2]. - The company has consistently surpassed earnings expectations, achieving a Q1 EPS of $2.30, exceeding the expected $2.24, although this represents a 6% decline from the previous year's $2.45 [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - PVH reported Q1 sales of $1.98 billion, surpassing estimates of $1.93 billion and showing an increase from $1.95 billion in the prior period [6]. - The company has maintained an average earnings surprise of 13.47% and a sales surprise of 1.38% over the last four quarters [6]. Group 3: Guidance and Projections - PVH has lowered its EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 to between $10.75 and $11.00, down from a previous range of $12.40 to $12.75, and below the current Zacks Consensus of $12.59 [8][9]. - Despite the lowered guidance, Zacks projects a 13% increase in annual earnings for FY27 to $14.21, although EPS estimates may trend lower following the recent guidance [9]. Group 4: Valuation Metrics - PVH's stock is currently valued at 6.4X forward earnings, significantly lower than the Zacks Textile-Apparel Industry average of 13.3X, indicating a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors [11]. - The company's PEG ratio stands at 0.57, suggesting it is undervalued relative to its growth rate, and it trades at less than 1X forward sales [12]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - Following the Q1 report, PVH stock holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), with potential for a rebound, but investors should monitor earnings estimate revisions closely [16]. - A decline in FY26 EPS estimates is anticipated, and a significant drop in FY27 estimates could indicate further downside risk [16][17].

露露柠檬（LULU）美股盘后跳水21%，该公司下调全年业绩指引，提及"动态的宏观环境"。 ...