袁理 东吴证券分析师: 各位投资者大家晚上好，我是东吴证券原理。那今天晚上，我们节后第一天复工，给大家 讲一讲我们节前发布的这个矿业双碳系列的深度报告，关于来的这个部分。那我们这个报 告的标题，讲的是来自资源卡位和技术提取，其实已经充分地说明，就是来这种稀有金属 它这两个核心的看点，一方面是资源的瓶颈，一方面是提取技术的一个突破。那大家众所 周知，都知道我们一直推荐的这个赛恩斯，其实它的核心要点之一就来自于二股东紫金矿 业合作下，通过这个紫金矿业的铜钼矿的这个资源去提取这个伴生伴生来的。 然后比如说航，商业航天领域中间的发动机和卫星的轨控的这个设施，就基本上用到高温 合金的部分，来是一个必须的添加量。再比如说燃燃气轮机等等，就是我们是可以看到来 的应用中间，几个主要的下游，都处在一个非常快速的成长的一个阶段。所以我们有个结 论是，到 2030 年我们去估算的话，整个全球的来消费量将将会达到 191 吨，这个数据是 比前十年的这个来的消费量，截止 2019 年的 75 吨有一个翻倍以上的增长的，非常快速 的一个增长。那同时在这个全球需求中间，中国的需求增长有非常的亮点。 比如说 2020 年中国的需求可能是 8 ...

会议主持人: 好的，各位投资者新年好。 甚至是食品饮料，也都出现了这个明显的这个机会所以我觉得就是在今天大家都要看到在 中国市场，它的市场结构变得更加广泛，更加具有梯度。科技和非科技都在出现这个投资 机会。同时，权重和小市值也在出现投资机会。所以我觉得市场结构本身的变化也非常值 得大家去重新的审视今年中国市场的一个。这个眼镜，那说到我们的看法，大家也其实大 家也比较熟悉了。在 1 月中旬以来，国泰海通应该是唯一一个在市场当中讲，要开始重视 内需，要开始重视这个传统行业的这样的一个，这个证券公司和研究团队。 李鹏飞 国泰海通金属分析师: 现在就是我们联合还是策略跟十大周期行业的首席，给大家开年梳理一下这个周期整个板 块，这个投资逻辑，还有这个机会。那首先，我们还是有请策略首席方毅老师发言。 方奕 国泰海通策略首席: 好的，谢谢。各位朋友，大家晚上好，我是方毅。大家新年快乐，这是开年以来，这个第 一天，也是第一次和大家沟通我们对中国市场的看法。那应该来说，2026 年以来，实际 上大家可以看到今年所上涨的这个板块，其实和去年是有比较大的这个差异的。比如说去 年比较强劲的这个算力，今年普遍的表现是这个比较差的。那当 ...

2月25日，上证指数早盘涨逾1%，钢铁、有色金属、化工板块领涨，市场近4000只个股上涨。小金属板块持续大涨，Wind数据显示，中证稀有金属指数 早盘盘中涨超6%，相关ETF如稀有金属ETF（159608）同步跟涨，盘中交投活跃，涨幅居前。Wind数据显示，稀有金属ETF（159608）最新规模超50亿 元，流动性同类居前；从业绩表现看，该ETF近1年涨幅超114%，在Wind二级分类中排名前2%，期间跟踪指数误差仅0.0326%。 消息面上，美国计划利用五角大楼开发的人工智能项目，为关键矿产制定参考价格，以支撑其构建全球金属贸易集团的计划，首批将聚焦锗、镓、锑、钨 四种金属，随后将逐步扩大覆盖范围。 一键布局稀土+有色，稀有金属ETF（159608，联接A/C类019874/019875）跟踪中证稀有金属主题指数，指数样本聚焦不超过50家业务涉及稀有金属采 矿、冶炼和加工的上市公司证券。截至2月24日，该指数申万三级前10大行业（及权重）分别为稀土（15.1%）、铜（14.1%）、锂（13.4%）、其他小金 属（11.5%）、钨（8.0%）、钴（7.3%）等；前十大权重股覆盖洛阳钼业、北方稀土、华友钴业、盐 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Quality ETF Zhongjin (515910), which rose by 1.35% to 0.678 yuan with a trading volume of 1.0338 million yuan as of the midday close [1] - The top holdings of the Quality ETF Zhongjin include companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, which increased by 2.17%, Zijin Mining up by 2.19%, and Xinyi Technology rising by 3.38% [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the MSCI China A-Shares International Quality Index, managed by Zhongjin Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of -33.12% since its inception on January 21, 2021, and a return of 1.24% over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, with significant inflows into the Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metal ETF, which has reached a new high in fund size since its listing [1][2] - The Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159157) has seen a net inflow of 1.067 billion yuan over the last ten trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The ETF closely tracks the industrial non-ferrous index, with a composition that includes 61.93% industrial metals, 22.49% minor metals, and 3.72% precious metals, featuring major stocks like Luoyang Molybdenum and Northern Rare Earth [1] Group 2 - The current PE-TTM for the industrial non-ferrous index is 27.57 times, which is at the 44.67% historical percentile, suggesting that the valuation is relatively reasonable and offers a certain margin of safety for medium to long-term investment [2] - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs have contributed to increased risk aversion, which has positively impacted the financial attributes of non-ferrous metals [2] - Post-Spring Festival, there is a strong demand for inventory replenishment from downstream enterprises, while global copper supply remains constrained due to aging mines, supporting the price structure [2]

Group 1 - The cyclical sectors in A-shares continue to strengthen, with Xiyie Co. hitting the daily limit, and rare earth permanent magnet concepts rising, leading to Northern Rare Earth increasing by over 9% and China Rare Earth by over 5% [1] - The Tianhong ETF (159157) focused on non-ferrous metals has seen continuous net inflows, accumulating over 1.067 billion yuan in the last 10 days, with a current scale of 2.159 billion yuan [1] - The Tianhong ETF primarily targets industrial metals, with copper, aluminum, and rare earths making up nearly 70% of its portfolio, including leading companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum [1] Group 2 - Heavy rare earth prices have significantly increased, with Yttrium reaching 850 USD/kg and Dysprosium at 1100 USD/kg, marking the highest levels since 2015 due to ongoing supply concerns [1] - London base metals saw a broad increase, with Citigroup optimistic about copper prices, predicting they will reach 14,000 USD per ton in the next three months, while JPMorgan forecasts an average aluminum price of 3,200 USD per ton by Q2 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The rare earth permanent magnet concept is rising, with significant price increases in heavy rare earths; Yttrium has reached $850 per kilogram and Dysprosium $1,100 per kilogram, marking the highest levels since 2015 due to ongoing supply concerns [1] - Precious metals and industrial metals prices are generally increasing, driven by multiple factors including the reshaping of monetary credit patterns, rising U.S. fiscal deficit rates, and low gold reserves in China, which are expected to push gold prices higher in the long term [1] - The copper price is expected to remain strong in the short term due to solid fundamental support, with significant production disruptions in copper mines and tight non-U.S. inventories, alongside initiatives to expand national copper strategic reserves in China [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) includes 50 prominent securities in the nonferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 49.87% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth [2]

数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证稀有金属主题指数前十大权重股分别为洛阳钼业、北方稀土、华 友钴业、盐湖股份、赣锋锂业、厦门钨业、中矿资源、天齐锂业、中钨高新、中国稀土，前十大权重股 合计占比59.71%。 稀有金属ETF（562800）跟踪中证稀有金属主题指数，是布局稀有金属板块的便利工具。 场外投资者还可以通过稀有金属ETF联接基金（014111）关注稀有金属板块投资机遇。 2026年2月25日早盘，截至10:27，中证稀有金属主题指数强势上涨4.57%，成分股三川智慧上涨 12.14%，云南锗业上涨10.01%，江特电机上涨9.97%，锡业股份，北方稀土等个股跟涨。 消息方面，美国计划利用五角大楼开发的人工智能项目，为关键矿产制定参考价格，以支撑其构建全球 金属贸易集团的计划，首批将聚焦锗、镓、锑、钨四种金属，随后将逐步扩大覆盖范围。此外，2月24 日钨价格出现异动，钨条(≥99.95%)现货2月24日已涨至1775.00元/千克，当日涨幅1.14%，周涨幅 1.14%，月涨幅29.09%。 西部证券表示，中国是全球钨资源的主要供应来源，随着中国资源管控、出口管制和私采打击等措施逐 步进行，海外原 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal industry, particularly the non-ferrous metal ETF fund, which has seen significant increases in both stock prices and net inflows [1][2]. - As of February 25, 2026, the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (000811) rose by 3.39%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Yunnan Tin Industry (10.01%) and Chihong Zn & Ge (8.49%) [1]. - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) has experienced a year-to-date increase of 20.76% as of February 24, 2026, with a recent net inflow of 206 million yuan [1]. Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index account for 51.85% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [2]. - The highest monthly return for the non-ferrous metal ETF fund since its inception was 27.00%, and it has achieved a maximum consecutive monthly gain of 69.57% [1]. - The fund has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 2.00% since inception, indicating strong performance relative to market standards [1].

消息面上，铜铝价格持续走强，花旗称，短期看涨铜价，预计未来三个月铜价将触及每吨14,000美元； 2026年平均铜价基准情景预测仍为每吨1.3万美元。摩根大通预计2026年第二季度铝均价为每吨3200美 元，且2026年下半年价格仍将获得有力支撑。 申万宏源研究指出，当前铜矿生产扰动较大、非美库存紧张，叠加电网投资增长、AI数据中心建设等 长期需求支撑，铜价中枢有望持续抬高；铝方面，在国内产能天花板约束下供需格局趋紧，价格有望延 续上行趋势；小金属中钴、镍受供给端扰动影响价格环比上涨，稀土氧化镨钕价格亦现回升。此外，中 国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫在新闻发布会上提出，除储备精炼铜外，还可研究将贸易量大、易 变现的铜精矿纳入国家铜战略储备范围，并探索国有骨干企业试行商业储备机制。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 截至2026年2月25日 09:55，中证工业有色金属主题指数(H11059)强势上涨2.46%，成分股驰宏锌锗上涨 7.29%，锡业股份上涨6.78%，北方稀土上涨5.42%，盛和资源，西部矿业等个股跟涨。工业有色ETF鹏 华(159162)上涨2.14%，最新价报1元。 工业有色ETF鹏 ...