袁理 东吴证券分析师: 各位投资者大家晚上好，我是东吴证券原理。那今天晚上，我们节后第一天复工，给大家 讲一讲我们节前发布的这个矿业双碳系列的深度报告，关于来的这个部分。那我们这个报 告的标题，讲的是来自资源卡位和技术提取，其实已经充分地说明，就是来这种稀有金属 它这两个核心的看点，一方面是资源的瓶颈，一方面是提取技术的一个突破。那大家众所 周知，都知道我们一直推荐的这个赛恩斯，其实它的核心要点之一就来自于二股东紫金矿 业合作下，通过这个紫金矿业的铜钼矿的这个资源去提取这个伴生伴生来的。 然后比如说航，商业航天领域中间的发动机和卫星的轨控的这个设施，就基本上用到高温 合金的部分，来是一个必须的添加量。再比如说燃燃气轮机等等，就是我们是可以看到来 的应用中间，几个主要的下游，都处在一个非常快速的成长的一个阶段。所以我们有个结 论是，到 2030 年我们去估算的话，整个全球的来消费量将将会达到 191 吨，这个数据是 比前十年的这个来的消费量，截止 2019 年的 75 吨有一个翻倍以上的增长的，非常快速 的一个增长。那同时在这个全球需求中间，中国的需求增长有非常的亮点。 比如说 2020 年中国的需求可能是 8 ...

地壳里藏着一种极其罕见的物质，它在地球上的含量仅仅只有十亿分之一。当中国勘探团队接连确认发 现这种稀缺资源的巨额储量后，原本掌握着垄断地位的欧美国家坐不住了。带着航空发动机领域最核心 的技术方案找上门，试图用技术换取这种资源。面对如此诱人的筹码，中方却给出了一个令世界意外的 答案：绝不出手。这到底是什么宝贝，能让西方大国如此焦虑？中国拒绝的底气又从何而来？ 深山里的惊人发现，打破西方半个世纪的"资源封锁" 我们先从这种资源的特殊性聊起。这种金属名叫铼，在矿业界有个响当当的名号——"超级金属"。想在 地层里找到它，难度堪比大海捞针。想要得到它，必须经过一套极其繁琐复杂的化学提纯流程，不仅步 骤多，损耗也大。 这就导致了一个结果：全球极其缺铼。把全世界已探明的铼储量加在一起，也不过2500吨左右。在很长 一段时间里，这点可怜的家底都被几家大户攥在手里。智利是头号玩家，美国排第二，俄罗斯紧随其 后。产量更是少得可怜，2019年全球总产量才45吨，2024年全球供应量虽然提升到了105.1吨，但面对 庞大的工业需求，依然是杯水车薪。 他们派出了高级别的商业代表团，敲开了中国企业的大门。他们拿出的交换筹码，是航空制造领 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the critical role of rhenium as a strategic metal in aerospace, emphasizing its increasing demand driven by advancements in aircraft and commercial space engines, while also noting the supply constraints due to its scarcity [8][9]. - By 2030, global rhenium demand is projected to rise from 75 tons in 2019 to 191 tons, with China's demand increasing from 8 tons to 56 tons, primarily fueled by the aerospace sector [17][18]. - The report underscores the high dependency of both the US and China on imported rhenium, with the US relying on imports for 82% of its consumption [9][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Rhenium: A Strategic Metal for Aerospace - Rhenium is essential in high-temperature alloys used in aircraft engines and rocket engines, with its unique properties allowing for higher performance under extreme conditions [8]. - The global rhenium consumption in 2019 was approximately 75 tons, with the US being the largest consumer [9][10]. - The report forecasts that by 2030, rhenium demand in the aerospace sector will significantly increase due to advancements in engine technology and the growth of commercial space ventures [17][18]. 2. Supply Constraints - Global rhenium supply is limited, with only about 2,600 tons of proven reserves, primarily concentrated in Chile, the US, and Russia [34][35]. - Rhenium is mainly recovered as a byproduct of copper and molybdenum refining, which adds to the supply rigidity [35][36]. - The report notes that China's rhenium production is heavily reliant on imports, with a significant portion of its supply coming from copper and molybdenum smelting processes [34][36]. 3. Demand and Price Dynamics - If domestic rhenium supply does not improve, China could face a supply gap of 51 tons by the long term, indicating a potential price increase for rhenium [17][18]. - The report reviews historical price trends, indicating that rhenium is currently in a new price increase cycle, with ammonium perrhenate prices rising significantly [17][18]. - Profitability analysis shows that if rhenium prices rise to 120 million yuan per ton, net profits could reach 45 million yuan per ton [17][18]. 4. Company Insights: Sains - Sains is positioned as a key player in rhenium extraction, with strategic partnerships and technological advantages in rhenium recovery [17][18]. - The company has initiated a production line for ammonium perrhenate and is expected to expand its rhenium production capacity through partnerships with major mining companies [17][18].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网2月10日讯 ，赛恩斯在接受调研者提问时表示，在铼深加工的实际生产过程中，铼和铼酸铵 的价差受到产品纯度、市场供需、生产成本、原材料来源等多种因素的共同影响。公司长期与矿业公司 保持良好合作关系，未来就铼资源回收方向也期待与更多的企业进行交流合作。 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网2月10日讯 ，赛恩斯在接受调研者提问时表示，在铜、钼矿的加工中，主要的采、选、冶成 本由主产品铜和钼承担。铼作为价值较高的伴生元素，仅需从既有流程（如烟尘或溶液）中进行分离提 纯，其回收的边际成本较低。因此，矿石的铼品位越高，综合回收的经济效益就越好，越有助于降低单 位生产成本。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the stark contrast between the strategic metals rhenium and tungsten, emphasizing that the U.S. monopolizes rhenium resources and sells it to China at exorbitant prices, while China, despite holding global dominance in tungsten, sells it at low prices [1][4] - The U.S. controls 70% of global rhenium supply and high-purity technology, pricing aerospace-grade rhenium powder at $12.3 per gram, equivalent to $12,300 per kilogram, which is over ten times the international benchmark price, illustrating a "stranglehold pricing" strategy [4] - The article argues that if tungsten were controlled by the U.S., it would be subjected to similar pricing strategies, leading to significant price increases and shortages, thereby becoming a strategic weapon against China's military and manufacturing sectors [4] Group 2 - China, despite being the largest producer and holder of tungsten reserves, has been engaging in low-price competition and disorderly expansion, effectively undervaluing a critical national resource [4][5] - There is a prevailing misconception within China that rising tungsten prices are merely speculative, which the article criticizes as shortsighted and ignorant of the strategic value of the resource [4] - The article calls for a shift in China's approach to tungsten pricing, advocating for controlled supply, rejection of low-price competition, and a focus on maintaining value to regain pricing power [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the operations and strategies of a company involved in the mining and metallurgy sector, specifically focusing on molybdenum and rhenium extraction from copper mines, particularly the Giant Dragon Copper Mine [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Rhenium and Molybdenum Production - The Giant Dragon Copper Mine has a moderate to high rhenium content of approximately 200 grams per ton, with a potential total rhenium resource of about 560 kilograms [2][3]. - The company operates under a light asset model, purchasing molybdenum concentrate for smelting, which allows for stronger control over rhenium resource acquisition [2][6]. - Current daily processing costs for waste acid recovery are around 2 million yuan, excluding depreciation [2][6]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The annual copper production from the Giant Dragon Copper Mine is estimated at 30,000 to 40,000 tons, with existing rhenium production capacity of 4,000 to 5,000 tons, indicating significant future expansion potential [2][10]. - The company is collaborating with Jilin Zijin and Heilongjiang Zijin for copper smelting, aiming for an annual rhenium output of about 3 tons [2][11]. Strategic Partnerships and Supply Chain - The company emphasizes strategic partnerships to ensure stable supply chains, particularly through deep binding in the smelting process [2][8]. - Future collaborations with Zijin Mining will depend on market conditions and further negotiations [3][4]. Market Dynamics and Pricing - Rhenium prices are expected to rise due to demand from the aerospace and gas turbine sectors, with a long-term upward price cycle anticipated [4][19]. - The company currently holds an inventory of approximately 500 kilograms of rhenium, primarily for downstream processing preparation [21]. Technological and Operational Advantages - The company has over ten years of experience in ammonium molybdate recovery processes and collaborates closely with Central South University for technology and process optimization [2][16]. - The company plans to expand its business through various models such as EPC+O and BOT, ensuring stable raw material supply and extending the industrial chain downstream [2][16]. Product Development and Market Position - The company is expanding its production of copper extractants to 7,000 tons, with plans for an additional 5,000 tons, although this expansion is not expected to be operational until 2026 [27]. - The flotation reagent business focuses on copper, lead, and zinc mining needs, with significant advancements in environmentally friendly flotation agents [26][30]. Other Important Information - The company is currently evaluating the feasibility of self-built production capacity to enhance cooperation and control over resources [7][10]. - The copper smelting collaboration with Jilin Zijin and Heilongjiang Zijin is progressing, with the latter expected to start production in the first half of 2026 [20]. - The company’s procurement strategy is based on market pricing, ensuring transparency and competitiveness in transactions [9]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market positioning, and operational capabilities in the mining and metallurgy sector.

赛恩斯(688480.SH)公告，公司开展钼加工及销售业务，主要目的为控制铼资源源头，为公司铼综合回 收提供持续、稳定的资源保障。目前上游为生产钼精矿的有色金属矿业企业，下游为钼粉、钼铁、钼合 金、催化剂等生产加工企业。 ...

智通财经APP讯，赛恩斯(688480.SH)公告，公司开展钼加工及销售业务，主要目的为控制铼资源源 头，为公司铼综合回收提供持续、稳定的资源保障。目前上游为生产钼精矿的有色金属矿业企业，下游 为钼粉、钼铁、钼合金、催化剂等生产加工企业。 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Metal and Resource Market Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal market is expected to maintain strong growth in 2026, with a baseline increase of 30% to 50% driven by both EPS and PE improvements. The current non-ferrous metal index still has room for growth [1][3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended investment order: 1. Gold 2. Silver 3. Tin 4. Minor metals (Tungsten, Uranium) 5. Basic industrial metals (Copper, Aluminum) - Precious metals are preferred due to their price increase trends and PE expansion potential. Minor metals show good price elasticity, while basic industrial metals have long-term value [1][5] Gold Market Insights - Current gold price is $1,150 per ounce, with an upward trend expected to continue due to geopolitical factors driving safe-haven demand. Related companies have a PE of only 12-13 times, indicating significant investment potential [1][6] - The gold industry is projected to see a PE increase to at least 15 times, suggesting further upside [6][24] Silver Market Insights - Silver price is nearing $30,000 per ton, with significant growth potential. Companies like Shengda Resources show promising prospects. The silver market is expected to present substantial investment opportunities in the next couple of years, potentially reaching ten times the current price by 2027 [1][7][9] Tin Market Challenges and Projections - The tin market faces supply concentration risks, particularly in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The semiconductor industry's rapid growth is creating a supply gap. Tin prices are expected to reach 450,000 yuan by 2027, with related companies' PE potentially reaching 18 to 20 times [1][10] Tungsten Market Dynamics - China controls a significant portion of global tungsten supply, with stable demand from military and nuclear sectors. A global tungsten shortfall exceeding 5% is anticipated from 2026 to 2027, with prices expected to rise to 600,000 yuan [1][11] Copper Market Challenges - The copper market is facing headwinds from high inventories and geopolitical factors. Current copper prices are fluctuating around 100,000 yuan, with a potential decrease in volatility. Companies like Zijin Mining have a market cap of 1 trillion yuan, corresponding to a PE of 16 times, indicating safety in holding or increasing positions [1][4][14] Aluminum Market Overview - The aluminum market is experiencing price increases, currently ranging from 24,000 to 25,000 yuan, with potential to stabilize above 25,000 yuan. Companies like China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum are highlighted for their growth potential [1][15][16] Lithium Market Outlook - The lithium market is seeing strong consumption growth, but supply is not keeping pace, leading to sustained high prices. Regulatory risks are present, but the overall trend remains bullish [1][12] Minor Metals Investment Opportunities - Minor metals like Rhenium and Uranium are highlighted for their investment potential, with Rhenium primarily used in aerospace and Uranium seeing increasing demand in nuclear power [1][13] Conclusion - The overall outlook for the non-ferrous metal market is positive, with various segments showing strong growth potential. Investment strategies should focus on precious metals and minor metals, while being cautious of supply risks in industrial metals.