Summary of the Conference Call on the "Belt and Road" Initiative Industry Overview - The "Belt and Road" initiative is actively promoted by China, with high-level meetings and state visits enhancing connections with participating countries, such as President Xi Jinping's visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia in April 2023, and the upcoming summit organized by the UN Global Compact in Indonesia, indicating positive international response [1][4][2] Core Insights and Arguments - Chinese construction companies exhibit strong competitiveness in the international market, with firms like China Communications Construction Company, China State Construction Engineering, China Electric Power Construction, and China Railway Construction ranking among the top ten in the ENR Global 250 International Contractors list. They have undertaken significant projects along the "Belt and Road," showcasing their scale and technical advantages [1][5] - The current market for the "Belt and Road" sector is favorable, with international engineering business sentiment surpassing domestic conditions. Core companies have valuations with safety margins, as historical data shows that market performance is closely linked to policy announcements and related meetings [1][6] - Countries along the "Belt and Road," particularly in Central Asia, Africa, and Southeast Asia, are experiencing high GDP growth rates, benefiting from foreign investment and rising prices of commodities and mineral resources. Major infrastructure projects like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway are driving revenue growth for construction companies [1][8] Valuation and Investment Opportunities - As of May 9, 2024, core companies in the "Belt and Road" sector, such as Northern International, China Steel International, China National Materials, and China Chemical, have low valuations with P/E TTM ratios of 10x, 12x, 11x, and 8x, respectively. Their dividend yields are also high, with China Steel International and China National Materials nearing 5%, indicating defensive investment value [1][9] - The "Belt and Road" sector is seen as having high allocation value, especially in light of global trade tensions and the increasing importance of this market for China's exports. Recent meetings and communications with countries along the initiative further emphasize its significance [2] Growth in Overseas Orders - Chinese state-owned construction enterprises are experiencing robust growth in overseas orders, with significant increases in new contracts compared to domestic orders. For instance, China Steel International's overseas new orders grew by 54% year-on-year in 2024, while China National Materials and China National Machinery also reported growth [3][10] - Notable companies with high overseas business ratios include China Steel International, China National Materials, and China National Machinery, which have shown impressive performance and significant compound growth in overseas revenue and gross profit [3][11] Responses to the "Belt and Road" Initiative - There is a positive international response to China's "Belt and Road" initiative, with events like the first summit on high-quality "Belt and Road" construction organized by the UN Global Compact in Indonesia and Colombia expressing interest in joining the initiative [4] Future Expectations - The valuation of state-owned enterprises in the "Belt and Road" sector is expected to improve, driven by long-term debt management measures and ongoing market value management. The importance of the "Belt and Road" initiative is increasingly highlighted in the current global context, suggesting these enterprises possess good time and allocation value [17]

- The report predicts adjustments to the sample stocks of seven major broad-based indices in the Chinese market, including CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, STAR 50, STAR 100, ChiNext Index, and ChiNext 50, based on the index compilation rules and data as of April 30, 2025 [1][7] - The CSI 300 Index selects stocks from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets that meet criteria such as good operational status, no significant financial issues, and no abnormal price fluctuations. The selection process involves ranking stocks by daily average trading volume and market capitalization over the past year, applying buffer rules, and excluding stocks with significant losses or long-term suspensions. Adjustments are limited to 10% of the constituent stocks per review [8] - The CSI 500 Index excludes CSI 300 constituents and follows a similar methodology, focusing on stocks with good operational status, no financial irregularities, and stable price movements. Stocks are ranked by daily average trading volume and market capitalization, with buffer rules applied, and adjustments are capped at 10% of the constituent stocks [10] - The SSE 50 Index is derived from the SSE 180 Index, selecting stocks based on daily average market capitalization and trading volume over the past year. The accuracy of SSE 50 predictions depends on the SSE 180 Index's accuracy. Adjustments are limited to 10% of the constituent stocks [13] - The STAR 50 Index represents the top 50 securities on the STAR Market by market capitalization and liquidity. Stocks are ranked by daily average market capitalization, with buffer rules applied, and adjustments are capped at 10% of the constituent stocks [15] - The STAR 100 Index includes 100 mid-sized securities from the STAR Market, reflecting the performance of mid-cap companies. The selection process is similar to STAR 50, with adjustments limited to 10% of the constituent stocks [17] - The ChiNext Index selects stocks from the ChiNext Board based on the top-ranked daily average market capitalization over the past six months. Buffer rules are applied, and stocks with significant losses or long-term suspensions are excluded. Adjustments are capped at 10% of the constituent stocks [20] - The ChiNext 50 Index selects the most liquid stocks from the ChiNext Index's 100 constituents, considering industry coverage and applying buffer rules. Adjustments are limited to 10% of the constituent stocks [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction and decoration sector is expected to benefit from ongoing incremental policies, with a focus on the actual implementation of construction projects [1] - The overseas contracting business in China is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 3.1% year-on-year in 2024, with new contract amounts increasing by 1.1%, reaching a historical high [2][11] - The report highlights opportunities in specialized manufacturing engineering sectors, prefabricated buildings, energy conservation, and carbon reduction, suggesting that companies with relevant transformation strategies may benefit [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Recent financial policies announced by the State Council aim to stabilize market expectations, including interest rate cuts and measures to support key sectors like technology innovation and real estate [5][13] - The construction PMI showed a decline in April, indicating weak project expectations, while infrastructure investment growth was reported at 5.8% year-on-year in the first quarter [10][11] Overseas Expansion - The report emphasizes the potential for increased cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly with Europe and ASEAN countries, following recent diplomatic visits by President Xi Jinping [2][11] - Companies such as China National Materials International and Shanghai Port Construction are recommended for their potential in the international engineering sector [2][11] Demand Structure - There are promising developments in demand structure, particularly in segments related to prefabricated buildings and cleanroom construction for semiconductors, which are expected to maintain a favorable market outlook [2][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction and decoration sector is expected to benefit from ongoing incremental policies, with a focus on the actual implementation of construction projects [1] - The overseas contracting business in China is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 3.1% year-on-year in 2024, with new contract amounts increasing by 1.1%, reaching a historical high [2][11] - The report highlights the positive demand structure and investment opportunities arising from new business developments in specialized manufacturing, prefabricated buildings, energy conservation, and carbon reduction [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Recent financial policies announced by the State Council aim to stabilize market expectations, including interest rate cuts and measures to support key sectors like technology innovation and real estate [13] - The construction PMI showed a decline in April, indicating weak project expectations, while infrastructure investment maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% in the first quarter [10][13] Overseas Expansion - The report emphasizes the potential for increased cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly with Europe and ASEAN countries, following recent diplomatic visits by President Xi Jinping [2][11] - Companies such as China National Materials International and Shanghai Port Construction are recommended for their potential benefits from overseas engineering demand [2][11] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with transformation layouts in high-demand sectors, such as prefabricated buildings and semiconductor clean rooms, with specific recommendations for Honglu Steel Structure and Asia Xiang Integration [2][11] - Infrastructure leaders and local state-owned enterprises are highlighted as having opportunities for valuation recovery due to their stable performance [10][11]

广发证券联席 首席金工分析师 陈原文 SAC: S0260517080003 chenyuanwen@gf.com.cn 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 研究背景： 近年来，指数化投资理念愈发受到投资者认可。根据指数编制规则，上证50、沪深300和中证500等宽基指数于每年的6月和12月定期调仓，成 分股名单会部分调入调出。跟踪相应指数的指数型基金，同样会参照指数编制规则，被动调整持仓成分股。当前的被动型基金规模屡创新高，若指数成分 股存在较大变动，则可能带来潜在的投资机会。 指数类产品规模统计： 规模继续增长。根据Wind，截至4月30日，1969只被动指数型基金（ETF和场外被动指数型基金）规模合计3.4万亿元，346只增强 指数型基金规模合计2211亿元，合计规模高于偏股混合型基金（2.07万亿元）。根据跟踪指数的不同，统计各类指数的产品跟踪情况，跟踪指数产品规模 靠前的指数分 ...

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [6] Core Insights - Humanoids can address pain points by providing lower deployment costs for long-tail cases where industrial robots are not economically viable. They are expected to deliver emotional value over the next decade [2] - Initial adoption scenarios for humanoids include box picking and 3C assembling, where they can help manufacturers reduce costs without competing with other robots like AGVs and AMRs. Delivery applications may also see humanoid integration within the next five years [3] - Key differentiators among integrators will be supply chain management and integration capabilities. A thorough understanding of components, whether through self-development or customization, is crucial for effective model development. Poor quality inputs can hinder humanoid performance [4][9] Summary by Sections - **Humanoid Adoption**: Humanoids are expected to adapt to complex environments and automate advanced tasks, solving many corner cases for broader applications. The U.S. has advantages in synthetic data and algorithms, while China's supply chain and government support may provide a long-term edge [9] - **Industry Players**: Insights from speakers from companies like UBTECH, Dobot, EngineAI, Flexiv, and Meritco Services highlight the importance of data collection from popular products to enhance generalization capabilities [9] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report covers various companies in the industrial sector, with ratings indicating potential investment opportunities. For example, China State Construction Engineering and Sany Heavy Industry are rated Overweight, suggesting expected performance above the average [57][59]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Zhongzheng Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index (931000) rose by 1.05% as of May 12, 2025, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Guangdong Hongda (002683) up 6.04%, China Shipbuilding Defense (600685) up 4.54%, and Huada Gene (300676) up 3.93% [1] - The Greater Bay Area ETF (512970) increased by 0.85%, with a latest price of 1.19 yuan, and has seen a cumulative rise of 2.34% over the past week as of May 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Fund Performance - The State-Owned Enterprise Win-Win ETF (159719) rose by 0.20% as of May 12, 2025, with a latest price of 1.49 yuan, and has shown a cumulative increase of 1.02% over the past week as of May 9, 2025 [2] - The State-Owned Enterprise Win-Win ETF has achieved a net value increase of 44.07% over the past three years, ranking 77 out of 1747 index stock funds, placing it in the top 4.41% [2][3] - The fund has a year-to-date relative drawdown of 0.15%, the smallest among comparable funds [3] Group 3: Fee Structure - The management fee for the Greater Bay Area ETF is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05% [1] - The management fee for the State-Owned Enterprise Win-Win ETF is 0.25% and the custody fee is 0.05%, which is the lowest among comparable funds [3] Group 4: Strategic Insights - The State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for state-owned enterprises to enhance their capabilities in key technological areas and integrate artificial intelligence into critical business processes [3] - Analysts believe that the ongoing benefits from state-owned enterprises present long-term investment value, with potential opportunities in debt reduction and mergers and acquisitions, as well as investments in undervalued sectors with high dividends [3] Group 5: Index Composition - The State-Owned Enterprise Win-Win ETF closely tracks the FTSE China State-Owned Enterprises Open Win-Win Index, which consists of 100 constituent stocks, including 80 A-share companies and 20 Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong [4] - The top ten constituent stocks of the Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index include BYD (002594), China Ping An (601318), and China Merchants Bank (600036), collectively accounting for 53.49% of the index [4][8]

Core Insights - The China Central Enterprise Innovation Driven Index (000861) has shown a strong increase of 1.37% as of May 12, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Ruike Laser (300747) up 11.37% and Guorui Technology (600562) up 9.99% [3] - The Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF (515900) has also risen by 1.34%, with a latest price of 1.44 yuan, and has a trading volume of 562.87 million yuan [3] - The ETF's scale has reached 3.3 billion yuan, ranking it in the top quarter among comparable funds [3] Performance Metrics - As of May 9, 2025, the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF has achieved a net value increase of 24.83% over the past three years, ranking 312 out of 1747 in equity funds, placing it in the top 17.86% [4] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 15.05% since inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being five months and a total gain of 24.91% [4] - The average return for the months with gains is 4.08%, and the annual profit percentage stands at 80.00%, with a historical three-year holding profit probability of 97.34% [4] Risk and Fee Structure - The management fee for the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4] - The tracking error over the past five years is 0.038%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4] Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven Index include Hikvision (002415), State Grid NARI (600406), and China Telecom (601728), collectively accounting for 34.48% of the index [5][6] - The individual weights of the top stocks range from 5.08% for Hikvision to 2.60% for China Railway (601390) [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent meetings have played a crucial role in stabilizing the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index continuing to progress steadily [1] - There are positive developments regarding ceasefire announcements between India and Pakistan, as well as potential progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which may benefit market sentiment [1] - The key focus is on the US-China talks, which lasted for 8 hours on May 10, indicating a shift towards resolving differences, with constructive progress expected [1] Group 2: Company Performance - For 2024, GDS Holdings Limited (万国数据-SW) is projected to achieve revenue of 10.322 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and an adjusted EBITDA of 4.876 billion yuan, up 3% [3] - The company’s domestic operational area reached 613,583 square meters by the end of Q4 2024, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth, with a cabinet utilization rate of 73.8% [3] - GDS's international business, DayOne, has signed contracts totaling 467 MW, with an operational scale of 121 MW, generating revenue of 1.73 million USD and adjusted EBITDA of 0.45 million USD in 2024 [4] Group 3: Industry Insights - Chinese construction companies are increasingly competitive in the international market, with several state-owned enterprises ranking among the top 10 in the ENR "Global Top 250 International Contractors" for 2024 [5] - The demand for construction projects along the Belt and Road Initiative is strong, with significant projects like the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway and China-Europe Railway Express enhancing infrastructure in participating countries [6] - The international engineering business is experiencing better conditions than the domestic market, with a notable increase in new contracts signed overseas by major Chinese construction firms [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering sector [13] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the high dividend investment opportunities in the construction sector, particularly focusing on state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, international engineering firms, and quality private enterprises [2][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Central State-Owned Enterprises - The report highlights China State Construction as a top pick due to its complete qualifications and stable operations, benefiting from steady growth. The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from around 20% to over 24%, with a projected new contract amount of 1,414.9 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.1% [8][9] - Other notable mentions include China Communications Construction and China Railway Construction, with dividend yields of over 5% and 6% respectively [8] Local State-Owned Enterprises - Sichuan Road and Bridge is identified as a key player, with a projected dividend yield of around 6% for 2025. The company plans to repurchase shares worth 100-200 million yuan, reflecting confidence in future growth [8][9] - Other local state-owned enterprises with attractive valuations and high dividend yields include Anhui Construction and Tunnel Engineering [8] International Engineering - The report stresses the investment opportunities presented by the "Belt and Road" initiative, recommending companies like China Steel International and China National Materials, which have high overseas order growth and dividend yields around 5% [8][10] Quality Private Enterprises - Jianghe Group is highlighted for its robust fundamentals and high dividend payout ratio, with a projected payout exceeding 95% for 2024. The company has expanded its overseas business significantly, with new orders growing by 57% year-on-year [8][11]