Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the commitment of the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) to build a world-class energy group with distinct marine characteristics during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and outlines the strategic direction for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4][5] - CNOOC aims to enhance its energy security capabilities, improve operational efficiency, and foster innovation while addressing challenges posed by external market conditions [4][6] - The company plans to focus on high-quality development, technological innovation, and digital transformation to strengthen its core competitiveness and contribute to national energy security [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - CNOOC has established a comprehensive marine energy development system, covering conventional oil and gas, deepwater oil and gas, LNG, and offshore wind power, positioning itself as a leader in marine energy development in China [8] Strategic Goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - CNOOC will focus on eight key areas: enhancing oil and gas exploration and production, refining and chemical industries, sales and trade of oil and gas products, strategic development of "electricity-hydrogen-carbon" businesses, exploration of marine mineral resources, improving technical service capabilities, enhancing financial service capabilities, and boosting technological innovation [6][7] Performance and Financial Outlook - CNOOC's oil production is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.0% from 2021 to 2024, while natural gas production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.5% [9] - The company has shown resilience in performance during periods of declining oil prices, with significant improvements in free cash flow exceeding 100 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023 [9] - CNOOC plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, highlighting its commitment to returning value to investors [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on CNOOC and its subsidiaries, including CNOOC Oilfield Services, CNOOC Engineering, and CNOOC Development, due to their integrated advantages across the oil and gas value chain and strong growth potential [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company, CNOOC Services, is recognized as one of the largest integrated oilfield service providers globally, offering a comprehensive range of services across various stages of oil and gas exploration, development, and production [2] Group 1: Company Overview - CNOOC Services possesses a complete service chain and a robust offshore oil service equipment fleet [2] - The company's primary business includes geophysical data acquisition, engineering surveying services, drilling services, oilfield technical services, and vessel services [2] - CNOOC Services can provide both standalone operational services and integrated turnkey project services to its clients [2] Group 2: Service Regions - The service areas of CNOOC Services encompass offshore and onshore operations in China, as well as regions in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Europe, the Americas, and Africa [2] - In Europe, the company specifically operates in the North Sea, covering the UK and Norwegian sectors [2]

Market Overview - The oil service engineering sector experienced a decline of 3.44% on January 16, with Tongyuan Petroleum leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4101.91, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14281.08, down 0.18% [1] Stock Performance - Notable declines in individual stocks include: - Daoyuan Petroleum (300164) at 7.10, down 11.91% with a trading volume of 1.887 million shares and a transaction value of 13.49 billion [1] - Keli Co., Ltd. (920088) at 35.69, down 11.77% with a trading volume of 82,700 shares and a transaction value of 303 million [1] - Zhunyou Co., Ltd. (002207) at 8.26, down 8.43% with a trading volume of 435,000 shares and a transaction value of 365 million [1] Capital Flow - The oil service engineering sector saw a net outflow of 460 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 391 million [1] - The table of capital flow indicates that: - Zhongyou Engineering (600339) had a main fund net inflow of 5.4486 million, while retail investors had a net inflow of 3.3170 million [2] - Haiyou Engineering (600583) experienced a main fund net outflow of 20.4936 million, but retail investors had a net inflow of 2.5745 million [2] - Beiken Energy (002828) faced a main fund net outflow of 23.0657 million, with a significant retail net inflow of 39.8684 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas industry is experiencing a surge in oil service stocks despite geopolitical tensions not driving oil prices higher, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][19]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - Since January 2026, geopolitical tensions have escalated, particularly with military intervention in Venezuela and sanctions on Iran, yet oil prices have not surged as expected [1][19]. - The U.S. military's swift action to control Venezuela's president, Maduro, aimed at accessing the country's vast oil reserves [22][23]. Group 2: Investment and Market Reactions - Trump announced a plan for deep U.S. involvement in rebuilding Venezuela's oil industry, urging major oil companies to invest at least $100 billion [23][35]. - Following these announcements, oil service companies like Schlumberger and Halliburton saw significant stock price increases, with Schlumberger rising nearly 5% and Halliburton over 10% in a few days [5][20]. - In the Chinese market, companies such as Jun Oil and Shandong Molong also experienced substantial gains, with Jun Oil rising 10.78% over seven trading days [6][28]. Group 3: Venezuela's Oil Industry Challenges - Venezuela holds over 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the largest globally, yet its production has plummeted from a peak of 3.5 million barrels per day to around 1 million [30][31]. - The country's oil infrastructure is severely outdated, with a 60% equipment failure rate, resulting from years of mismanagement and underinvestment [31][33]. - The national oil company has shifted to a predatory extraction model due to declining revenues, leading to a complete neglect of infrastructure maintenance [12][33]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Opportunities - To restore Venezuela's oil infrastructure, an estimated $53 billion is needed, with total investments potentially reaching $100 billion, primarily benefiting oil service companies [15][35]. - The U.S. strategic push for rebuilding the oil industry, regardless of oil price fluctuations, suggests a certain upward trend in capital expenditures for oil services [15][37]. - Companies with core technologies and global reach are expected to benefit significantly from this capital expenditure wave [38].

Industry Overview - Deep-sea technology refers to a series of scientific technologies and equipment systems used for exploration, research, and development in deep-sea areas (typically below 200 meters) [1] - The industry encompasses deep-sea detection, resource development, environmental monitoring, and biological research, including technologies like manned submersibles, unmanned underwater vehicles, and autonomous underwater robots [1] Industry Chain Analysis - The deep-sea technology industry chain includes three main areas: deep-sea material research, deep-sea equipment manufacturing and system integration, and deep-sea resource and application development [3] - Upstream material research focuses on providing high-strength, high-pressure resistant, and corrosion-resistant materials essential for deep-sea equipment [3] - Midstream involves the manufacturing of deep-sea equipment, including manned submersibles and underwater robots, which are critical for deep-sea research and resource exploration [3] - Downstream development focuses on the commercial extraction of deep-sea oil, gas, and minerals, as well as the technological commercialization of underwater security and deep-sea data centers [4] Industry Development History - The development of China's deep-sea technology has gone through four stages, from initial exploration in the late 1980s to the current phase of comprehensive layout and frontier exploration since 2021 [7][10] Policy Background - National policies for the deep-sea technology industry are characterized by systematic and precise features, aiming to promote high-quality development through top-level design and industry guidance [12] - Key policies include support for deep-sea equipment development, critical technology breakthroughs, and financial backing for long-term financing of deep-sea enterprises [12][13] Current Industry Status - The marine economy market in China has exceeded 10 trillion yuan, with deep-sea technology becoming a core driver of new industries [15] - The deep-sea technology market size has grown from 1.90 trillion yuan in 2020 to 2.53 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 7.4% [16] - Investment in deep-sea equipment has increased significantly, from less than 100 million yuan in 2020 to 745 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 72% [18] Regional and Competitive Landscape - Guangdong and Hainan account for nearly 30% of the industry enterprise distribution, with Guangdong at 18% and Hainan at 14% [26] - The competitive landscape shows differentiation, with state-owned enterprises like China Shipbuilding and CNOOC leading in deep-sea equipment manufacturing, while companies like Baotai and Hailanxin excel in specialized materials and underwater communication systems [27] Future Industry Trends - The deep-sea technology market is projected to reach 3.8 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by ongoing investments in traditional oil and gas exploration and the commercialization of new applications [31] - Key trends include the intelligent and autonomous development of equipment, accelerated green energy development, expansion of new application scenarios, and deepening industry chain collaboration [32][34]

Core Viewpoint - CNOOC Services (02883) saw a nearly 5% increase, with a current rise of 3.91% to HKD 7.97, and a trading volume of HKD 140 million, driven by geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [1] Group 1: Market Impact - U.S. President Trump's intensified rhetoric against Iran has raised market concerns about potential U.S. intervention, leading to a spike in international oil prices, reaching a two-month high [1] - LSEG data indicates that geopolitical tensions in Iran and Venezuela have supported global benchmark prices, with the premium of Brent crude over Dubai crude reaching its highest level since July [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to a report from Everbright Securities, significant upstream capital expenditure in China is expected to ensure growth in upstream production and reserves, benefiting oil service companies [1] - The "Three Oil Giants" are actively responding to the Belt and Road Initiative, with their overseas business expansion gradually deepening, allowing subsidiary engineering companies to leverage the advantages of their parent companies and seize new opportunities abroad, likely leading to sustained breakthroughs in overseas business development [1]

Core Viewpoint - CNOOC Services (02883) has seen a nearly 5% increase in stock price, currently trading at HKD 7.97, with a transaction volume of HKD 140 million, driven by rising international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Venezuela [1] Group 1: Market Impact - U.S. President Trump's strong rhetoric against Iran has raised market concerns about potential U.S. intervention, leading to a spike in international oil prices, reaching a two-month high [1] - LSEG data indicates that the premium of Brent crude over Dubai crude has risen to its highest level since July, supported by geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Everbright Securities reports that significant upstream capital expenditure in China will support the growth of upstream production and reserves, benefiting oil service companies [1] - The "Three Oil Giants" are actively responding to the Belt and Road Initiative, with overseas business layouts gradually deepening, allowing subsidiary engineering companies to leverage parent company advantages for new opportunities abroad [1]

Group 1 - Tongyuan Petroleum, based in Chengdu, is a leading company in perforation technology, providing a full range of oil and gas engineering services, and is well-positioned to benefit from rising oil prices through increased orders and revenue [1][36] - Huai Oil Co., located in Jiangsu, has a stable oil and gas production base and benefits from regional cooperation, allowing for dual revenue growth during rising oil prices [2][37] - CNOOC Services, the largest marine oil and gas engineering service provider in China, is set to see significant increases in drilling platform utilization and service orders due to rising oil prices [3][38] Group 2 - Sinopec Oilfield Services, a leading player in oil and gas engineering services, is expected to benefit from increased internal orders and global oil development opportunities as oil prices rise [4][39] - Beiken Energy, based in Xinjiang, focuses on oilfield technical services and is well-positioned to expand its business in response to rising oil prices and increased exploration activities in the western oil and gas regions [5][41] - Zhongman Petroleum, with integrated oil and gas exploration and service capabilities, is likely to see increased orders and revenue from both domestic and international projects as oil prices rise [6][42] Group 3 - Potential Energy, specializing in oil and gas exploration technology services, is expected to benefit from increased demand for high-precision exploration services as oil prices rise [8][43] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation, the largest offshore oil producer in China, is positioned to benefit from rising oil prices through increased revenue from oil sales and a focus on deepwater development [9][44] - Bomeike, focusing on marine oil and gas engineering equipment, is set to see increased demand for its products as marine oil and gas projects accelerate due to rising oil prices [10][45] Group 4 - Blue Flame Holdings, a leader in coalbed methane development, is expected to benefit from rising demand for clean energy and increased coalbed methane sales prices as oil prices rise [11][47] - Shouhua Gas, with a comprehensive natural gas business model, is likely to see revenue growth from both upstream exploration and downstream distribution as oil prices and natural gas prices rise [12][48] - CNOOC Engineering, a leading marine oil and gas engineering construction company, is expected to gain stable orders and enhance profitability through deep cooperation with CNOOC as oil prices rise [13][49] Group 5 - Intercontinental Oil and Gas, focusing on overseas oil resource development, is well-positioned to benefit from rising oil prices through increased sales revenue from its overseas oil fields [14][50] - Guanghui Energy, a comprehensive energy service provider, is expected to see significant revenue growth from its oil and gas extraction and LNG production businesses as oil prices rise [15][51] - CNOOC Development, providing comprehensive marine oil and gas services, is likely to see increased demand for its services as oil production rises due to higher oil prices [16][52] Group 6 - China Petroleum Engineering, a leading oil and gas engineering construction company, is set to benefit from increased orders due to rising oil prices and expanded overseas market opportunities [18][54] - New Natural Gas, focusing on natural gas exploration and distribution, is expected to see revenue growth from both upstream and downstream operations as oil and natural gas prices rise [19][55] - ST Xinchao, despite its current ST status, is expected to see improved performance from its oil and gas business as oil prices rise, benefiting from the synergy between its oil and chemical operations [20][56]

Group 1: Industry Overview - According to Raytad Energy, global upstream exploration and development spending is expected to be around $600 billion in 2025, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, with deepwater investments projected to decline by 6% [1] - China's crude oil production has rebounded since 2019 due to a long-term strategy for increasing reserves and production, with a CAGR of 2.2% from 2019 to 2024, while natural gas production has a CAGR of 7.3% during the same period [1] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China have significantly increased capital expenditures from 2020 to 2023 and are expected to maintain high levels in 2024 and 2025, which will support upstream reserve growth and benefit their oil service subsidiaries [1] Group 2: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, major oil service companies benefited from the ongoing domestic "increase reserves and production" initiative and the gradual release of overseas business performance, leading to improved operational quality despite falling oil prices [2] - CNOOC's oil service subsidiary reported a 23.3% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, while other companies like Haiyou Development and Haiyou Engineering saw net profit changes of +13.1% and -8.2% respectively, with the latter experiencing a 27% increase in gross profit [2] - The annualized ROE for CNOOC's oil service companies in the first half of 2025 showed resilience, with CNOOC at +1.5 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024, indicating a potential improvement in international competitiveness [2] Group 3: Market Performance - As of January 13, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose by 0.81%, with significant increases in stocks such as CNOOC's oil service (+6.03%) and China National Petroleum (+3.57%) [3] - The oil and gas ETF (159697) increased by 1.15%, reflecting a four-day consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 1.23 yuan and a net subscription of 15 million units [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index account for 67.11% of the index, including major players like China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [3]

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