证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2025 年 10 月 30 日 江海证券研究发展部 计算机行业 执业证书编号：S1410525010001 联系人：刘瑜 执业证书编号：S1410123110011 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -4.09 -4.75 5.83 绝对收益 0.25 10.05 25.6 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-计算机行业： OpenAI 发布 Sora 2 模型，美区应用上线 后热度攀升 – 2025.10.17 2. 江海证券-行业点评报告-计算机行业： DeepSeek-V3.1 发布与阿里持续进行 AI 投入，AI 产业蓬勃发展 – 2025.09.01 3. 江海证券-行业点评报告-计算机行业： OpenAI 推出 GPT-5，腾讯混元开源四款 小尺寸模型 – 2025.08.18 4. 江海证券-行业点评报告-计算机行业： 智能驾驶领域近期消息频出，技术正不断 进步 – 2025.07.11 5. 江海证券-行业点评报告-计算机行业： 华为正式发布鸿蒙电脑，国产操作系统新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft reported strong revenue growth of 18% year-over-year for Q3, maintaining the highest growth rate in a year and a half, but the earnings per share (EPS) growth slowed to 13%, still exceeding analyst expectations [2][14] Financial Data Summary - Revenue: Q3 revenue reached $77.67 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 18%, surpassing analyst expectations of $75.55 billion [7][14] - EPS: Q3 diluted EPS was $3.72, up about 13% year-over-year, exceeding the expected $3.68, while the previous quarter saw a 24% increase [7][14] - Operating Profit: Q3 operating profit was $37.96 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 24%, higher than the expected $35.1 billion [7][15] - Net Profit: Q3 net profit was $27.75 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, compared to a 24% increase in the previous quarter [8][14] Capital Expenditure Summary - Capital Expenditure: Q3 capital expenditure reached $34.9 billion, a year-over-year increase of 74.5%, exceeding analyst expectations of $30.06 billion [8][17] - The increase in capital expenditure reflects significant investments in data centers and AI infrastructure, with a 60% increase from the previous record [17] Business Segment Performance - Commercial Cloud: Revenue from commercial cloud services, including Office and Azure, was $49.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 26%, surpassing expectations of $48.6 billion [9] - Intelligent Cloud: Revenue from the intelligent cloud segment, including Azure, was $30.9 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 28%, exceeding the expected $30.18 billion [9][15] - Productivity and Business Processes: This segment, including Microsoft 365 Copilot AI tools, generated $33.02 billion in revenue, a year-over-year increase of approximately 17% [10] - More Personal Computing: Revenue from this segment, including Windows, Surface, and Xbox, was $13.8 billion, a year-over-year increase of 4%, below the expected $12.88 billion [10] Azure and AI Investment Insights - Azure Growth: Azure and other cloud services revenue grew by 39% year-over-year, matching the highest growth rate in two and a half years, but fell short of some optimistic buyer expectations [2][15] - Investment in OpenAI: Microsoft's investment in OpenAI impacted Q3 net profit by nearly $3.086 billion, significantly higher than the previous year's $523 million [19][20] - Future AI Investments: Microsoft plans to continue increasing investments in AI, including funding and talent acquisition, to capitalize on future growth opportunities [18]

Alphabet第三季度营收、利润及全年资本开支指引全面超出预期，营收首破1000亿美元，多个核心业务实现两位数增 长。AI需求强劲带动云业务提速，订单积压达1550亿美元。公司大幅上修全年资本开支至910-930亿美元，以加码AI和 基础设施建设，盘后股价一度涨超7%。 硬·AI 作者 | 赵雨荷 编辑 | 硬 AI 谷歌母公司Alphabet周三盘后公布第三季度财报显示，该公司营收、利润以及全年资本开支指引均超出分 析师预期，多个主要业务实现两位数百分比增幅，Gemini APP拥有超过6.5亿月活用户数。良好业绩刺激 该公司股价盘后一度上涨7.7%。 以下是谷歌第三季度财报要点： 主要财务数据： 营收： 谷歌母公司Alphabet三季度营收1023.5亿美元，分析师预期998.5亿美元；三季度ex-tac （不包含流量获取成本）营收874.7亿美元，分析师预期851.1亿美元。 自由现金流： 谷歌母公司Alphabet三季度自由现金流同比下降9%，降至245亿美元。 分业务数据： 云营收： 三季度谷歌云营收151.6亿美元，分析师预期147.5亿美元。 服务营收： 三季度谷歌服务营收870.5亿美元，分 ...

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI is actively preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) with a potential valuation of $1 trillion, aiming to be among the largest IPOs globally [1][3] Group 1: IPO Preparation - OpenAI's management is considering submitting an IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in the second half of 2026, with an initial fundraising target set above $60 billion, subject to market conditions [1][3] - The decision-making process regarding the IPO is still in the early stages, with key factors like valuation and timing likely to be adjusted based on business development and capital market conditions [3] Group 2: Financial Status and Market Position - OpenAI is currently in a loss-making position, with an existing valuation of approximately $500 billion [3] - The CEO, Sam Altman, indicated that due to the significant funding needs for AI infrastructure, public market financing will become a necessary choice [3] Group 3: Organizational Structure - OpenAI has restructured its organization, renaming its non-profit parent to "OpenAI Foundation," which holds a stake valued at about $130 billion in the newly formed for-profit entity "OpenAI Group," establishing a legal framework for future capital operations [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry [3] Core Insights - The release of Sora2 by OpenAI marks a second revolution in the AI video industry, showcasing significant technological breakthroughs and the integration of social interaction features [2][18] - The report highlights the rapid growth of "AI comic dramas" and other innovative content forms, which are expected to capture a larger share of internet usage among younger demographics [2][16] - The report identifies three key trends for the future of AI video applications: deep integration with social interactions, evolution towards an ecosystem represented by ChatGPT, and the combination with AI agents for comprehensive video creation solutions [7][17] Industry Overview - The industry consists of 160 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,947 billion and a circulating market value of 1,783.1 billion [3] - The absolute performance of the industry over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -5.4%, 20.3%, and 27.7% respectively, while the relative performance is -8.5%, -3.8%, and 9.3% [5] Technological Breakthroughs - Sora2 has achieved three major technological advancements: realistic simulation of the physical world, multi-modal integration for simultaneous audio generation, and initial capabilities for narrative logic and editing akin to a director [18][51] - The report emphasizes the shift from professional tools to consumer-level applications, with AI video tools becoming more accessible and integrated into social platforms [43][44] Market Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in various sectors: - Film industry: AI video tools are revolutionizing traditional content production, creating new dynamics [7][8] - Gaming: AI video technology is enhancing game development and gameplay innovation, increasing commercial potential [7][8] - Intellectual Property (IP): AI video is accelerating the visualization of IP, reshaping industry value [7][8] Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include Tencent Holdings, Kuaishou, Bilibili, Meitu, Kunlun Wanwei, and Mango TV, among others, which are leveraging AI technologies to enhance their core business operations [8]

随着近期公布的财报业绩"没有最爆表、只有更爆表"，向来以波动剧烈著称的全球内存芯片行业显然正迎来一段持续的超级繁荣期，而这背后无疑得 益于英伟达和OpenAI等企业推动的AI热潮。 以韩国三星电子、SK海力士和美国美光科技、希捷科技为首的内存芯片制造商，正"享受"着AI模型训练与运行所需各类存储产品需求激增 所带来的业绩爆发式增长！ 三星电子周四表示，其7-9月季度的净利润比上年同期增长21%，达到约86亿美元。在有利的价格环境下，其芯片部门实现了创 纪录的季度收入，营业利润增长近80%，达到约49亿美元。 此前一天，SK海力士也公布了创纪录财报，第三季度净利润同比翻倍至约88亿美元。该公司称存储市场已进入"超级繁荣周期"， 明年产能已全部售罄。 大洋彼岸的美国存储厂商同样业绩爆表。美光科技9月公布的最新季度财报显示，净利润同比增长逾三倍至32亿美元，希捷科技 周三公布的业绩也显示，第一财季营收达到26.3亿美元，同比增长21%，超过市场预估的25.5亿美元。 据世界半导体贸易统计组织数据显示，内存芯片约占全球芯片销售额的四分之一。另一大类是逻辑芯片——包括英伟达生产的专用人工智能 芯片(图形处理器或GPU) ...

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) with a potential valuation of up to $1 trillion, which could become one of the largest IPOs in history [1][5]. Group 1: IPO Preparation - The company plans to submit its IPO application in the second half of 2026, aiming for a formal listing in 2027 [3]. - OpenAI has completed a year-long restructuring process, adopting a hybrid structure of a non-profit holding a for-profit entity [4][8]. - The estimated minimum fundraising amount is $60 billion, with the final amount likely to be adjusted upwards [5]. Group 2: Corporate Structure - The non-profit entity, OpenAI Foundation, retains its charitable status and does not seek shareholder returns, holding 26% economic rights and a unique "super voting" power [6]. - The for-profit entity, OpenAI Group PBC, is designed to allow investor dividends while prioritizing public interest in its decision-making [6][7]. - The dual structure aims to attract significant capital while maintaining the mission of benefiting humanity through AGI [7]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Position - OpenAI has engaged with California's Attorney General to ensure compliance and support for its restructuring, emphasizing its role as a key player in the state's economy [7][11]. - The company has secured a deal with California prosecutors, removing major regulatory hurdles for its IPO plans [8][11]. - Significant funding commitments, including $22.5 billion from SoftBank, have been lined up to support AI infrastructure investments totaling $1.4 trillion over the next five years [10].

Group 1: China-US Relations - Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump on October 30 in Busan, South Korea, to discuss China-US relations and mutual concerns [1][2] - The meeting is expected to facilitate strategic communication on long-term issues affecting China-US relations [3] - The Chinese side expresses willingness to work with the US to achieve positive outcomes from the meeting, aiming to provide new guidance and momentum for stable development of bilateral relations [4] Group 2: Trade Agreements - US President Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung finalized details of a trade agreement during a summit in South Korea [5][6] - The agreement focuses on expanding economic cooperation centered around the shipbuilding industry, with South Korea committing to increase investments in the US and imports from the US [7][8] Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The US Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00% [11][12] - This marks the fifth rate cut since September 2024, reflecting a moderate expansion in economic activity and rising inflation [12] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, highlighting internal disagreements among Fed officials regarding future monetary policy [13][14][15] Group 4: Canadian Economic Measures - The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, citing trade conflicts with the US as a factor weakening the Canadian economic outlook [16][17] - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in Q2 2023, with expectations of weak growth in the latter half of the year [17][18] Group 5: Research Collaboration - A study indicates that Chinese scientists are increasingly taking leadership roles in US-China research collaborations, with their share rising from 30% in 2010 to 45% in 2023 [20][21] - The trend suggests that by 2027, China may reach parity with the US in joint research leadership roles, reflecting China's growing influence in global research [20][23] Group 6: Microsoft and OpenAI Agreement - Microsoft and OpenAI announced a new agreement that values OpenAI at $500 billion, allowing OpenAI to restructure as a public benefit corporation [24][25] - Microsoft will hold a 27% stake in the new structure, which aims to facilitate OpenAI's future public listing and resolve previous financing limitations [25][26] Group 7: AI Server Production - Foxconn plans to deploy humanoid robots at its Houston factory to produce AI servers for Nvidia, marking a significant step in their long-term partnership [28][29] - The factory will be among the first to utilize humanoid robots powered by Nvidia's Isaac GR00T N model [29][30] Group 8: Super Micro Computer's New Subsidiary - Super Micro Computer established a subsidiary to provide AI server support to US federal agencies, aligning with the government's push to enhance administrative efficiency [33][34] Group 9: Amazon's AI Infrastructure Projects - Amazon launched the Rainier computing cluster project to support AI company Anthropic, which plans to use over one million chips by the end of the year [38][71] - AWS announced plans to invest at least $5 billion in South Korea by 2031 to build new AI data centers [40][41] Group 10: Semiconductor Industry Developments - SK Hynix reported record quarterly profits and plans to significantly increase investments, anticipating a "super cycle" in the chip industry driven by AI demand [46][49] - Samsung Electronics also reported strong Q3 earnings, with a 160% increase in operating profit, driven by robust demand for memory chips amid the AI boom [63][67] Group 11: Automotive Industry Innovations - Lucid Group aims to become the first automaker to offer Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities, collaborating with Nvidia for technology support [85][88] - BYD launched its first K-Car model, Racco, specifically designed for the Japanese market, set to begin pre-sales in 2026 [92]

业内人士称， OpenAI正考虑最早于2026年下半年向证券监管机构提交上市申请，初步讨论中的融资规模至少600亿美元 。 据市场消息称， 全球人工智能领军企业OpenAI正筹备首次公开募股（IPO），此次IPO对该公司的估值或高达1万亿美元。这有望缔造史上 规模最大的IPO 。 在IPO计划被曝出之际，OpenAI本周宣布已完成重组，其非营利实体现更名为OpenAI基金会（OpenAI Foundation），并持有价值约1300 亿美元的营利部门部分股权。OpenAI的营利部门则改制为一家公益性公司（Public Benefit Corporation），名为OpenAI Group PBC。 在新架构下，OpenAI基金会将持有26%的股权，现任及前任员工与投资者合计持有47%。而作为OpenAI最大股东的微软将获得27%股 权，价值约1350亿美元。 此次重组最关键的变化是将各投资方的投资转换为普通股权，并解除了此前对潜在财务回报的上限限制，从而为潜在IPO扫清了障碍。 不过，他们同时提醒称，目前谈判尚处于早期阶段，包括融资额和时间在内的计划可能会根据业务增长和市场状况而改变。 OpenAI潜在的融资 ...

在韩国举办的2025年APEC会议更是吸引着全球目光。赴韩的美国总统特朗普与李在明进行了会面，并 宣布双方已基本达成了新的贸易协定，前者会将关税下调至15%，而后者将至少在美国投资3500亿美 元。此前市场消息称，两国之间会就加强人工智能、量子计算、6G等领域的合作签署一项广泛的协 议。根据路透社等的报道，白宫方面在两国首脑见面后表示，这项被称为"技术繁荣协议"的初步协议包 括联合制定人工智能政策框架、共同促进人工智能出口、确保制药和生物技术供应链的安全，以及在太 空探索等方面进行合作。 人类历史上第一家5万亿美元市值企业——英伟达，还有什么好消息要公布？ 市值接近2.5万亿美元，横跨云计算、电商、AI等领域的多栖巨头——亚马逊，有何新计划？ 刚刚完成资本重组，预计2027年上市，IPO估值可能达到1万亿美元的AI明星——OpenAI又看向了何 处？ 虽然人工智能领域的大事件层出不穷，但至少最近，不少AI巨头都在紧盯着韩国方面的动向。 10月1日，OpenAI宣布与韩国的三星、SK海力士建立合作关系，为计划投资规模高达5000亿美元的"星 门计划"（Stargate）提供芯片及其他解决方案，并支持"韩国版星门 ...