Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for key companies in the "fruit chain" sector, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance in the coming year [4][5]. Core Insights - The recent reduction in tariffs from 120% to 54% for small packages valued under $800 is expected to create a recovery window for "fruit chain" companies, which have been undervalued due to high tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties [1]. - The anticipated product innovations from Apple, including foldable screens and AI glasses, are projected to drive growth and valuation recovery in the supply chain, particularly between 2026 and 2027 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Changes and Market Impact - The U.S. government has lowered tariffs on small packages, which is expected to alleviate pressure on "fruit chain" companies and enhance market sentiment [1]. - The combination of tariff relief and low valuations is likely to lead to a valuation uplift for these companies, especially with the upcoming price increases for new products in the fall of 2025 [1]. Product Innovations - Apple is set to launch its first foldable smartphone in the second half of 2026, featuring a 7.8-inch inner screen and a 5.5-inch outer screen, which is expected to reshape the foldable screen ecosystem [2]. - The introduction of Apple Glass, anticipated by late 2026 or early 2027, will further drive innovation in the sector, with custom chips being developed to meet performance needs [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in the foldable screen and AI glasses segments, including 宜安科技 (Yian Technology), 蓝思科技 (Lens Technology), and 立讯精密 (Luxshare Precision) [3]. - Other core companies in the "fruit chain" sector recommended for investment include 舜宇光学 (Sunny Optical), 瑞声科技 (AAC Technologies), and 长电科技 (Changdian Technology) [3].

Core Insights - The report indicates a "relatively hot" market sentiment with a composite score of 64, suggesting a positive outlook for market performance [6][10]. - Recent trends show that when the sentiment score is below or near 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [10]. Industry and Company Highlights - **Robotics Theme**: The use of exoskeleton robots for hiking has gained popularity, reducing physical exertion by 20%-40%. Related companies include Weisi Medical (688580) and Jinggong Technology (002006) [7]. - **Big Data Theme**: The State Council has approved a draft for a data-sharing regulation aimed at breaking down data barriers and enhancing public services. Companies involved include Aofei Data (300738) and Inspur Information (000977) [7]. - **Apple Supply Chain Theme**: Apple is expected to launch its first foldable iPhone in Fall 2026, impacting the product release schedule of other models. Related companies are Lingyi Technology (002600) and Changying Precision (300115) [7]. Market Activity - The report lists the top ten stocks with significant net inflows, including Qingdao Kingking (44,781.89 million) and Tongwei Co. (34,070.72 million), indicating strong investor interest [11]. - The report also highlights the top ten stocks with net outflows, such as Zhonghang Chengfei (188,507.92 million) and Luxshare Precision (89,100.55 million), reflecting investor caution in certain sectors [13][23]. Financing and Margin Trading - The report details the top ten stocks with net buying in financing, led by Xinyi Technology (29,979.81 million) and Zhongji Xuchuang (24,836.71 million), suggesting bullish sentiment among investors [13]. - Conversely, the top ten stocks with net selling in margin trading include Luxshare Precision (869.33 million) and CATL (807.16 million), indicating bearish sentiment [14]. Industry Trends - The report identifies the electronics sector as a leading area for net buying in financing, with a total of 118,857 million, while the automotive sector shows significant net outflows of -342,284 million, indicating a shift in investor focus [20][23].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily discuss the export chain industry, particularly companies affected by tariffs and their strategies to mitigate impacts. Specific companies mentioned include Jiangxin Home, Juxing Technology, and Chunfeng Power, as well as companies related to the Belt and Road Initiative and the fruit chain (electronics industry). Core Points and Arguments - **Impact of Tariffs on Profitability**: In 2019, the implementation of a 25% tariff on exports to the US resulted in a 5-10 percentage point decrease in gross margins and a 2-3 percentage point decline in net profits for listed companies. Some companies managed to mitigate these impacts through transfer or hedging measures [1][3][4]. - **Establishment of Overseas Factories**: Between 2023 and 2024, export chain companies established overseas factories in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Mexico, effectively reducing the impact of the 25% tariff and achieving historically high profitability, although valuations did not significantly improve [1][3]. - **Stock Performance and Market Reactions**: In the second half of 2024, stock returns for some export chain companies increased significantly due to expectations surrounding Trump's potential re-election. However, in 2025, the implementation of global tariffs led to notable declines in stock prices for companies like Jiangxin Home and Juxing Technology [1][3][4]. - **Recent Stock Recovery**: Recently, stocks of companies like Jiangxin Home have rebounded, indicating a 10-20% increase from their lows. The uncertainty surrounding new tariffs is expected to have a limited impact on financial statements, although overall rates remain higher than before [4][5]. - **Future Profitability of Export Companies**: The ability of export companies to maintain profitability will depend on global trade policies, corporate strategies, and market demand. Many companies have adapted by establishing overseas factories and implementing pricing strategies to offset tariff impacts [5][6]. - **Market Response in 2025**: The market's response to the machinery export sector in the first half of 2025 is complex, with traditional export chains facing limited opportunities despite potential short-term profit impacts from tariffs. The US is expected to accelerate inventory replenishment, which may positively affect export data in late May to June [6][7]. - **Concerns for North American Machinery Exporters**: North American machinery exporters should monitor tariff impacts, short-term demand fluctuations post-inventory replenishment, and long-term demand trends influenced by interest rates and consumer behavior [7]. - **Prospects for Belt and Road Initiative Companies**: Companies involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, such as construction machinery and oil and gas equipment manufacturers, are expected to perform well due to favorable fundamentals and potential marginal profit increases [2][8]. - **Outlook for the Fruit Chain**: The fruit chain (electronics industry) is anticipated to have a positive growth trajectory over the next one to two years, benefiting from tariff reductions and domestic substitution strategies [9]. - **Recommended Investment Directions**: In the current high-volatility environment, the focus should be on military and robotics-related assets, which have performed well due to geopolitical events. Additionally, opportunities in companies with high exposure to the Belt and Road Initiative and domestic construction should be prioritized [10]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The notes highlight the importance of strategic adjustments by companies in response to tariff changes and market conditions, emphasizing the need for flexibility in operational strategies to sustain profitability amidst evolving trade environments [5][6]. - The potential for recovery in stock prices suggests a market that is responsive to both macroeconomic signals and company-specific strategies, indicating a dynamic investment landscape [4][6].

1）细分持仓比例及变动：25Q1 电子行业基金持仓总市值约 2344 亿，占比 18.09%，环比 24Q4 提升 1.25pct，细分板块中半导体持仓占 比显著提升，消费电子保持稳定，元件板块有小幅下降。其中半导体/电子化学品/光学光电子/其他电子/消费电子/元件持仓占比分别达 到 10.69%/0.43%/0.66%/0.08%/4.62%/1.61%，环比提升 2.02/0.06/0.01/-0.09/0/-0.76pct。 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 消费电子 证券研究报告 25Q1：AI 业绩红利兑现伊始、机构持仓稳定，看好算力开支及新机带动下的板块修复机遇 电子及消费电子行业基金持仓情况：国产算力+国补政策助推 25Q1 基金持仓比例进一步抬升至 18.09%，大幅超配。 元件及光学光电子板块 25Q1 业绩总结：AI 业绩红利开始显著兑现。1）被动元件：汽车及 AI 算力已经成为新动能。2）PCB：作为业绩 增速较为亮眼的子行业板块，显著受益于高速 PCB 的旺盛需求。沪电股份：25Q1 公司实现营收 40.38 亿元，yoy+56%，实现归母净利润 7.62 亿元，yoy+48%，延续高速增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, which is expected to alleviate pressure on the supply chain, particularly for Apple-related products, enhancing growth potential in the second quarter [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The US will modify tariffs on Chinese goods, reducing the tariff from 125% to 34%, with 24% of the tariff suspended for the first 90 days, while retaining a 10% tariff on non-US origin products [2][3]. - The joint statement from the trade talks indicates that the short-term impact of the tariffs on the supply chain is largely mitigated, allowing for a more favorable environment for growth [3]. Group 2: Impact on Apple Products - Apple has announced significant price reductions for the iPhone 16 series, with the iPhone 16 Pro Max dropping by $160 and the iPhone 16 Pro by $176, aimed at boosting sales in the second quarter [2][4]. - The price cuts are expected to enhance shipment volumes, with a reported 6% year-on-year increase in iPhone shipments during Q2, driven by promotional activities on platforms like Pinduoduo and JD.com [4]. Group 3: Future Growth and Innovations - The upcoming launch of AI smartphones and foldable devices is anticipated to drive a new replacement cycle for iPhones, potentially increasing the average selling price (ASP) of core components in the supply chain [4][5]. - The market sentiment around emerging technologies such as humanoid robots and AI glasses is expected to positively influence the valuation of core suppliers in the Apple supply chain [5]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks in the Apple supply chain include Lens Technology (300433.SZ), Lianyi Intelligent Manufacturing (002600.SZ), Xinwanda (300207.SZ), and Pengding Holdings (002938.SZ) [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintained)" [6] Core Insights - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, with the effective tariff rate dropping from 125% to 34%, alleviating negative pressures on the supply chain [2] - Apple's price reduction on the iPhone 16 models aims to boost sales volume in the second quarter, which is typically a season for inventory clearance, thus positively impacting the supply chain [3] - The introduction of AI smartphones and foldable screens is expected to drive a new replacement cycle for iPhones, enhancing the average selling price (ASP) of core components in the supply chain [3] - The market sentiment around emerging terminal technologies, such as humanoid robots and AI glasses, has led to an increase in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of core suppliers, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the supply chain [4] - Recommended core supply chain stocks include Lens Technology, Linyang Technology, Xinwanda, and Pengding Holdings [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Changes - The US has announced a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs on Chinese goods for 90 days, with only 10% remaining, effectively neutralizing the short-term impact of the tariff war on the supply chain [2] Section 2: iPhone Pricing Strategy - Apple's recent price cuts on the iPhone 16 Pro Max and Pro models, with reductions of $160 and $176 respectively, are aimed at increasing sales volume and supporting supply chain growth [1][3] Section 3: Future Innovations - The anticipated launch of AI smartphones and foldable devices is expected to create a new wave of demand, leading to a rise in ASP for core suppliers over the next two years [3] Section 4: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Despite the positive developments, the market has not fully recovered to pre-tariff levels, but the recent price cuts and tariff negotiations suggest a potential for valuation recovery in the supply chain [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, with the effective tariff rate dropping from 125% to 34%, alleviating negative pressures on the supply chain [2] - Apple's price reduction on the iPhone 16 models aims to boost sales volume in the second quarter, which is typically a season for inventory clearance, thus positively impacting the supply chain [3] - The introduction of AI smartphones and foldable screens is expected to drive a new replacement cycle for iPhones, enhancing the average selling price (ASP) of core components in the supply chain [3] - The market sentiment around emerging terminals like humanoid robots and AI glasses has led to a recovery in the valuation of core suppliers in the supply chain, with expectations for further valuation recovery due to the recent tariff negotiations [4] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The US has suspended 24% of tariffs on Chinese goods for the first 90 days, with only 10% remaining, indicating that the negative impact of the tariff war on the supply chain is largely mitigated [2] iPhone Pricing Strategy - Apple's recent price cuts on the iPhone 16 Pro Max and Pro models, with reductions of $160 and $176 respectively, are intended to stimulate sales and support supply chain growth [1][3] Future Innovations - The anticipated launch of AI smartphones and foldable iPhones is expected to create a new wave of demand, leading to an increase in both volume and price for core suppliers over the next two years [3] Valuation Recovery - Despite the initial negative impact of tariff policies, the market is gradually desensitizing to these changes, and core suppliers are expected to experience a clear valuation recovery due to Apple's unexpected global price cuts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is experiencing fluctuations, with the China Rare Earth Industry Index showing a slight decline, while the rare earth ETF fund has demonstrated significant growth over the past week, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 13, 2025, the China Rare Earth Industry Index decreased by 0.83%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1]. - The rare earth ETF fund (516150) has seen a cumulative increase of 6.27% over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [1]. - The rare earth ETF fund recorded a turnover rate of 1.35% and a transaction volume of 24.72 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Fund Metrics - The latest scale of the rare earth ETF fund reached 1.831 billion yuan, marking a new high for the past month and ranking first among comparable funds [3]. - The fund's latest share count is 1.640 billion shares, also a new high for the past month [3]. - The rare earth ETF fund has experienced continuous net inflows over the past five days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 31.89 million yuan, totaling 105 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Valuation and Outlook - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the index tracked by the rare earth ETF fund is 29.94 times, which is in the 12.55th percentile over the past year, indicating a valuation lower than 87.45% of the time in the past year [3]. - Following export controls on certain heavy rare earths since April 4, 2025, overseas supply has tightened, leading to significant price increases for some products [3]. - Historical trends suggest that domestic rare earth prices may rebound significantly after initial declines following export controls, indicating potential for substantial price recovery [3]. Group 4: Key Stocks - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index accounted for 57.42% of the index, including companies like Northern Rare Earth, Wolong Electric Drive, and China Rare Earth [4]. - Investors can also consider using linked funds (011036) to capitalize on investment opportunities in the rare earth sector [4].

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 87, indicating an "overheated" market condition. Historical trends suggest that when sentiment is below or near 30, the market finds support, while above 90, resistance is likely to occur [6][10]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Robotics Theme**: During the recent holiday, exoskeleton robots gained popularity in mountainous tourist areas, reducing physical exertion by 20%-40%. Related companies include Weisi Medical (688580) and Jinggong Technology (002006) [7]. - **Big Data Theme**: The State Council has approved a draft for a data-sharing regulation aimed at breaking down data barriers and enhancing public services. Key companies in this sector are Aofei Data (300738) and Inspur Information (000977) [7]. - **Apple Supply Chain Theme**: Reports indicate that Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to launch in Fall 2026, impacting the product release schedule. Related companies include Lingyi Technology (002600) and Changying Precision (300115) [7]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include Dongfang Caifu (300059) with a net inflow of 134,142.46 million, and Zhonghang Chengfei (302132) with 106,038.11 million [11][12]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Gongxiao Daji (000564) with a net outflow of -30,063.10 million, and Runhe Software (300339) with -29,332.32 million [13][23]. Industry Insights - The top ten industries with the highest net inflow include Electric Equipment (SW) with 299,840 million and Defense Industry (SW) with 267,288 million [17]. - The top ten industries with the highest net outflow include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (SW) with -73,792 million and Retail (SW) with -28,707 million [18].

Group 1 - The reducer concept sector increased by 3.20%, ranking 9th among concept sectors, with 107 stocks rising, including Chuncheng Precision, Xiangyang Bearing, and *ST Haihua hitting the daily limit [1] - Notable gainers in the reducer sector included Aifute, Tongli Technology, and Jiangnan Yifan, which rose by 13.30%, 11.09%, and 9.87% respectively [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 1.044 billion yuan from main funds, with 51 stocks receiving net inflows, and 7 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflow [2] Group 2 - The top net inflow stock was Xiangyang Bearing, with a net inflow of 247 million yuan, followed by Zhaowei Electromechanical, Wuzhou Xinchun, and Lingyi Zhi Zao with net inflows of 197 million yuan, 185 million yuan, and 165 million yuan respectively [2] - The main fund inflow ratios were led by Chuncheng Precision, Xiangyang Bearing, and Meihu Co., with net inflow ratios of 31.14%, 13.53%, and 13.15% respectively [3] - The reducer sector's performance was supported by significant trading volumes, with stocks like Xiangyang Bearing and Zhaowei Electromechanical showing high turnover rates of 25.00% and 7.25% respectively [3]