[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 02 月 24 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（2.9-2.13） 春季配置需求回归，债券 ETF 有望扩张 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 联系人：李茂怡 电话：15528164673 邮箱：limaoyi@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 各类债券 ETF资金净流入情况：市场情绪偏多，债券 ETF净流入金额转正。 上周利率债类 ETF、信用债类 ETF、可转债类 ETF净流入资金分别+50.98亿 元、+142.12亿元、+5.87亿元，债券 ETF市场合计净流入金额 198.96亿元。 展望后市，债券 ETF 规模在经历年初季节性资金流出后，有望随机构春季配 置需求的回归以及"两会"定调的关键政策重回扩张通道。品种上 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The Taiwan Fund has shown strong performance, benefiting from its high dividend policy and market recognition of structural opportunities in Taiwanese stocks [1] - In 2025, the overall fund inflow for Taiwanese ETFs was significant, with the Yuanta Taiwan 50 ETF (0050) achieving a net inflow of NT$335.9 billion, surpassing NT$1.13 trillion in total size, making it the first Taiwanese ETF to exceed NT$1 trillion [1] - High dividend ETFs like Yuanta High Dividend (0056) and Qunyi Taiwan Selected High Yield also recorded inflows in the billion NT dollar range, reflecting market demand for stable cash returns [1] Group 2: Industry Policy and Environment - The Taiwanese stock market occupies a key position in the AI industry chain, benefiting from the global AI capital expenditure cycle [1] - The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund (NBIM) significantly adjusted its holdings in Taiwanese stocks in the second half of 2025, focusing on increasing positions in high-precision manufacturing sectors such as semiconductor testing and low-orbit satellite components [1] - The Taiwan Fund, as a one-stop investment tool for Taiwanese stocks, indirectly benefits from these structural opportunities, with its portfolio including core AI hardware companies like TSMC, enhancing its sustainable dividend capacity [1] Group 3: Fund Movement - At the beginning of 2026, public funds implemented high dividend payouts, with Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF achieving a single dividend total of NT$11 billion, setting a record for domestic ETFs [2] - This trend is driven by improved liquidity and policy support, as fund managers optimize investor returns through dividends [2] - The Taiwan Fund's dividend policy aligns with the overall market trend of increased payouts, enhancing short-term market attention [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in public fund dividends, with nearly 36 billion yuan distributed before the Spring Festival, marking a growth of over 35% compared to the previous year [1][3] - In 2026, stock funds have emerged as the dominant force in the dividend distribution, contributing over 56% of the total dividends, amounting to approximately 202.24 billion yuan, which is a 158% increase year-on-year [3][4] - Conversely, bond funds have seen a substantial decrease in dividend payouts, totaling 82.17 billion yuan, a decline of 47.81% compared to the previous year [3][4] Group 2 - The largest contributors to stock fund dividends include the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, which distributed 98.11 billion yuan, followed by the E Fund CSI 300 ETF at 44.79 billion yuan [4][5] - The increase in stock fund dividends is attributed to two main factors: the recovery of the A-share market in 2025, leading to substantial distributable profits, and a greater emphasis on investor returns within the public fund industry [6][8] - In contrast, bond funds have faced challenges due to a turbulent bond market in 2025, resulting in lower distributable income and a decrease in overall dividend amounts [6][9] Group 3 - Dividend-themed funds have also played a significant role in the current dividend wave, with these funds focusing on high-dividend, stable cash flow companies, collectively distributing over 2 billion yuan this year [8] - Fund managers are increasingly recognizing the value of dividend assets, especially in a low-interest-rate environment, where stable dividend returns are becoming a scarce source of income [9] - The rebalancing of dividend indices in December 2025 has led to an average dividend yield of around 5%, making dividend assets more attractive for reallocating funds from traditional savings and investment products [9]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations in the early session, with all three major indices declining collectively, and the ChiNext Index leading the drop. The CSI A500 Index fell by 0.83% [1] - The military industry sector showed the highest gains, while the semiconductor sector was active, and the paper-making concept strengthened repeatedly. Conversely, the port and shipping concept saw a collective decline [1] ETF Performance - As of the morning close, the ETFs tracking the CSI A500 Index dropped nearly 1%. Notably, 11 CSI A500-related ETFs had transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan, with 2 surpassing 7.2 billion yuan. The A500 ETF Fund and A500 ETF Huatai-PB had transaction volumes of 9.776 billion yuan and 7.27 billion yuan, respectively [1] - Specific ETF performance included: - A500 ETF Fund: Current price 1.235, down 0.80% - A500 ETF Huatai-PB: Current price 1.313, down 0.76% - CSI A500 ETF: Current price 1.243, down 0.88% - A500 ETF Southern: Current price 1.292, down 0.84% - A500 ETF E Fund: Current price 1.266, down 0.78% [2] Market Sentiment - Analysts indicated that there is currently no clear main theme in the market, with sectors rotating based on events or news catalysts, lacking sustainability. The recommendation is to remain observant and await increased capital flow post-holiday [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05% to close at 4134.02 points, with a daily high of 4140.59 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.86% to close at 14283.0 points, reaching a high of 14296.48 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.32%, closing at 3328.06 points, with a peak of 3334.35 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return for stock ETFs was 0.56% [2] - The highest return among scale index ETFs was 2.45% for the Fortune China Science and Technology Innovation 200 ETF [2] - The highest return among industry index ETFs was 2.67% for the Bosera National Certificate Industrial Software Theme ETF [2] - The highest return among strategy index ETFs was 1.18% for the Qianhai Kaiyuan CSI 500 Equal Weight ETF [2] - The highest return among style index ETFs was 1.81% for the Wanji Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Growth ETF [2] - The highest return among theme index ETFs was 4.43% for the China Universal Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design Theme ETF [2] ETF Performance Rankings - The top three ETFs by return were: - China Universal Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design Theme ETF (4.43%) [6] - GF Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design Theme ETF (4.28%) [6] - E Fund Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (4.2%) [6] - The top three ETFs by decline were: - Guotai Junan CSI Film and Television Theme ETF (-3.72%) [6] - Yinhua CSI Film and Television Theme ETF (-3.5%) [6] - Huatai-PB CSI Animation and Game ETF (-2.31%) [6] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by fund inflow were: - Southern CSI 500 ETF (inflow of 1.124 billion) [9] - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (inflow of 819 million) [9] - Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF (inflow of 514 million) [9] - The top three ETFs by fund outflow were: - Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF (outflow of 995 million) [11] - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation 50 Component ETF (outflow of 842 million) [11] - Southern CSI A500 ETF (outflow of 839 million) [11] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs by margin buying were: - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation 50 Component ETF (320 million) [12] - Guotai Junan CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF (263 million) [12] - E Fund ChiNext ETF (261 million) [12] - The top three ETFs by margin selling were: - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (10.2265 million) [14] - Southern CSI 500 ETF (5.3715 million) [14] - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation 50 Component ETF (3.9157 million) [14] Institutional Insights - Open Source Securities indicated that the semiconductor chip industry is entering an upward cycle, driven by the growth of AI, smart connected vehicles, 5G, cloud computing, and IoT [15] - The global semiconductor packaging materials market is expected to exceed 26 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.6% until 2028 [15] - Donghai Securities noted that storage prices have been rising, with the memory industry achieving record output, and AI remains a key narrative for the foreseeable future [16] - There is an expectation for continued acceleration in domestic semiconductor production, suggesting a focus on leading companies in specific segments [16]

Group 1: Market Overview - Since 2026, the issuance of bond funds has significantly cooled, with a notable decline in the number and scale of new pure bond funds compared to the previous year [1] - In contrast, "fixed income +" funds have continued their strong performance from 2025, dominating the new bond fund issuance [1] - The A-share market showed a mixed performance on February 12, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05% to 4134.02 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.86% to 14283 points [1] Group 2: Fund News - On February 12, only 2 new funds were launched, primarily mixed funds, with Morgan Stanley's Hong Kong Stock Connect Ningyuan Growth Mixed A aiming to raise 8 billion yuan [2] - As of February 11, net inflows into Hong Kong-themed ETFs reached 54.435 billion yuan this year, pushing the total scale of cross-border ETFs back to over 100 billion yuan [2] - In February, the gray testing of ByteDance's AI video generation model Seedance 2.0 has sparked significant market interest in the multi-modal industry chain, leading to strong performance in AI application-related sectors and ETFs [2]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index both declining over 1% [1] - The chemical sector has recently shown strength, particularly in the fiberglass concept, while the film and cinema sector experienced a collective decline [1] ETF Market Activity - On February 11, the non-monetary ETF market saw significant inflows, with the E Fund ChiNext ETF increasing by 324 million shares and a net inflow of 1.065 billion yuan [1] - The Hai Fu Tong Shanghai City Investment Bond ETF also saw an increase of 100 million shares with a net inflow of 1.027 billion yuan [1] - The Ping An Zhongdai High-Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor ETF had an increase of 8 million shares and a net inflow of 866 million yuan [1] Fund Performance - The E Fund ChiNext ETF had a decline of 1.15%, despite the increase in shares and net inflow [2] - The Hai Fu Tong Shanghai City Investment Bond ETF had a slight increase of 0.08% with a net inflow of 1.027 billion yuan [2] - The Ping An Zhongdai High-Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor ETF increased by 0.04% with a net inflow of 866 million yuan [2] Fund Outflows - The Southern CSI A500 ETF saw a reduction of 522 million shares and a net outflow of 678 million yuan [2] - The Huatai-PB Shanghai Dividend ETF experienced a decrease of 156 million shares with a net outflow of 496 million yuan [2] - The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF had a reduction of 104 million shares and a net outflow of 489 million yuan [2] Top ETF Inflows - The top 20 ETFs by net inflow for the month include the Huatai-PB Hang Seng Technology ETF with 3.885 billion yuan and the Hai Fu Tong CSI Short-term Bond ETF with 3.852 billion yuan [4] - Other notable inflows include the Huatai-PB Hang Seng Internet Technology ETF with 2.872 billion yuan and the E Fund ChiNext ETF with 1.772 billion yuan [4] Overall Market Statistics - As of February 11, the total ETF shares in the market reached 33,335.10 billion shares, with a total scale of 54,141.40 billion yuan [4] - The information sector saw the largest increase in shares, with four funds tracking it, while the largest thematic increase was in the CSI Robotics Index, tracked by nine funds [4]

Market Overview - On February 11, the A-share market exhibited a volatile trend, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 0.09% [1][6] - In this market environment, the Huatai-PB Low Volatility ETF (code: 512890) increased by 0.17%, closing at 1.188 yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.56% and a transaction amount of 470 million yuan, ranking first among similar ETFs in terms of transaction volume [1][6] ETF Performance - As of February 11, the Huatai-PB Low Volatility ETF has accumulated a total transaction volume of 23.061 billion yuan over 28 trading days this year, with an average daily transaction of 824 million yuan [2][7] - Fund flow data indicates that as of February 10, the ETF saw a net inflow of 880 million yuan over the last 10 trading days, 3.472 billion yuan over the last 20 days, and 4.470 billion yuan over the last 60 days, with a circulating scale of 30.128 billion yuan [2][7] Investment Recommendations - Recent recommendations from various institutions suggest a "hold stocks over the holiday" strategy, indicating that the A-share market's performance before the Spring Festival may influence post-holiday trends [4][9] - Huajin Securities noted that the current spring market is not yet over, with expectations for improved economic and corporate profit forecasts during the Spring Festival, and a neutral risk appetite anticipated [4][9] - Zhongtai Securities emphasized that the configuration logic for high-dividend sectors is becoming clearer, with expectations for policy measures related to growth stabilization and consumption promotion to gradually materialize after the Spring Festival [4][9] ETF Characteristics - The Huatai-PB Low Volatility ETF was established on December 19, 2018, with a benchmark of the CSI Low Volatility Index [4][9] - As of February 10, 2026, the ETF has achieved a return of 79.95% over the past five years, outperforming its benchmark and ranking 51st among 909 funds [4][9] - Investors can participate through a systematic investment plan to smooth out volatility risks, and those without stock accounts can access it through its off-market linked funds [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF managed by Huatai-PB has experienced a decrease in both share count and total assets in 2025, indicating a potential decline in investor interest [1][2] Group 1: Fund Performance - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890) closed at a gain of 0.99% on February 11, with a trading volume of 37.2364 million yuan [1] - The fund's management fee is set at 0.50% annually, while the custody fee is 0.10% annually [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the Hang Seng Stock Connect High Dividend Low Volatility Index [1] Group 2: Fund Size and Liquidity - As of February 10, the fund's latest share count is 83.008 million, with a total size of 127 million yuan, reflecting a 12.63% decrease in shares and a 6.16% decrease in size since December 31, 2025 [1] - Over the last 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount reached 595 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 29.7258 million yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the cumulative trading amount is 775 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 27.6773 million yuan [1] Group 3: Fund Holdings - The current fund manager is Li Qian, who has managed the fund since September 4, 2024, achieving a return of 52.12% during her tenure [2] - Major holdings include Shougang Resources (3.77%), Yancoal Australia (2.68%), and Hang Seng Bank (2.63%), among others, with specific holding values and percentages detailed [2]