2026年02月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：原料端扰动，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：小幅震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：过剩格局未改 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：交投清淡，横盘整理 | 12 | | 钯：持续震荡 | 12 | | 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，关注投机属性风险 | 14 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 12 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 黄金：震荡反弹 白银：高位回落 贵金属基本面数据 | | | ...

2026 年 2 月 12 日 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，关注投机属性风险 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 2）根据钢联，印尼镍矿商协会 (APNI) 透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于 2026 年初修订镍矿商 品的基准价格公式，修订要点之一是政府将开始将镍的伴生矿钴视为独立商品并征收特许权使用费。 3）SMM 报道印尼林业工作组披露了多家企业违规占用林地，面临的潜在罚款约 80.2 万亿印尼盾，部 分受影响的矿山正与政府部门进行积极协商以解决这些处罚，最终的罚款金额可能会低于最初估算的 80.2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 139,360 | 6,010 | 1,680 | -5,010 | -4,840 | 19,980 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Indonesian news disturbances reappear, and attention should be paid to the risks of speculative attributes [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Favorable sentiment boosts the market, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday capital behavior [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The market volatility has decreased [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Some warehouse receipts have been cancelled, and attention should be paid to the impact of sentiment [2][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 139,360, with a change of 6,010 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,040, with a change of 300 compared to T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform; the Indonesian nickel miner association revealed that the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products will be revised; some mines in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegal occupation of forest land; the KPPU reported monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park; the Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has approved the 2026 mining work plan and budget; a Swiss investment group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala [4][5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 150,260, with a change of 12,920 compared to T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, position, and various lithium - related product prices also showed corresponding changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 10, 2026, Gotion High - tech and BASF signed a strategic cooperation memorandum. Gotion High - tech has made progress in its solid - state battery project, and there have been multiple cooperation agreements in the new energy battery field [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,375, with a change of - 75 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 48,950, with a change of - 420 compared to T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, position, price differences, and inventory also showed corresponding changes [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: India's 2026 - 27 fiscal year federal budget shows that the new energy and renewable energy department will receive a 24% increase in total funding, with a 32% increase in photovoltaic industry funding [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is 0 [15].

Core Viewpoint - Eramet's joint-venture PT Weda Bay Nickel has received a production quota of 12 million wet metric tons (Mwmt) from Indonesian authorities, significantly lower than the previously approved quota of 42 Mwmt for 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Production Quota and Adjustments - The initial production and sales volume granted to PT WBN is 12 Mwmt, compared to an initial RKAB of 32 Mwmt and a revised quota of 42 Mwmt in July 2025 [1]. - PT WBN acknowledges the complex production quota policy by Indonesian authorities aimed at sustainable management of the nickel industry, which has led to an increase in the nickel ore index [2]. - PT WBN plans to prepare a Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) and will engage with local authorities and stakeholders to adjust its mining setup to minimize economic impacts on North Maluku [3]. Group 2: Future Plans and Commitments - PT WBN intends to apply for a revision of the production quota to a higher volume, reflecting the supply needs from smelter and HPAL facilities in the IWIP industrial park, estimated to exceed 100 Mwmt [3]. - The company is committed to maintaining a constructive dialogue with Indonesian authorities to secure sustainable production levels that benefit employees, local communities, and the regional economy [4]. Group 3: Company Overview - Eramet focuses on transforming mineral resources to provide sustainable solutions for industrial growth and energy transition challenges, recovering essential metals like manganese, nickel, lithium, and cobalt [5]. - The company aims to be a reference for responsible transformation of Earth's mineral resources, contributing to robust infrastructures and efficient technologies [6].

Core Viewpoint - Eramet has implemented a temporary management structure in its finance department due to the suspension of its CFO, which is unrelated to the dismissal of its CEO, Paulo Castellari, over operational disagreements with the Board of Directors [2][3]. Group 1: Management Changes - The CFO, who joined Eramet in mid-September 2025, has been temporarily suspended to facilitate an independent investigation following employee warnings regarding the finance department's management [3]. - The dismissal of CEO Paulo Castellari was due to divergences in operating methods with the Board of Directors, as stated in a previous press release [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Eramet focuses on transforming Earth's mineral resources to provide sustainable solutions for industrial growth and energy transition challenges [4]. - The company is involved in the recovery and development of essential metals such as manganese, nickel, lithium, and cobalt, which are crucial for building a more sustainable world [4][5]. - Eramet aims to be a reference point for the responsible transformation of mineral resources, contributing to robust infrastructures, efficient mobility, and safer health tools [5].

Paris, February 6th, 2026 INFORMATION ON THE FINANCIAL TERMS OF THE DEPARTURE OF PAULO CASTELLARI, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER (According to the recommendations of the Afep-Medef corporate governance code) During its meeting held on 1 February 2026, the Board of Directors decided the departure of Mr. Paulo Castellari from his duties as Chief Executive Officer, with effect as of the same date, and, upon the recommendation of its Compensation and Governance Committee, set the financial terms of his departure in ...

Core Insights - Eramet Grande Côte has achieved the IRMA 50 performance level, marking a significant milestone in responsible mining practices within the Eramet Group [1][6][9] Group 1: IRMA Standard and Evaluation - The IRMA Standard for Responsible Mining is recognized as one of the most comprehensive evaluation frameworks in the mining sector, distinguishing four performance levels: IRMA Transparency, IRMA 50, 75, and 100 [2] - The IRMA 50 level indicates compliance with critical requirements across four principal areas: social responsibility, environmental responsibility, business integrity, and planning for positive legacies [2] Group 2: Audit Results and Transparency - The audit of Eramet Grande Côte revealed strong environmental, social, and governance practices, with specific performance levels: Business integrity at 74%, Social responsibility at 74%, Environmental responsibility at 67%, and Planning for positive legacies at 67% [7][9] - The audit process is voluntary and based on independent external evaluation, with full publication of the audit report to ensure transparency [4][6] Group 3: Continuous Improvement and Stakeholder Engagement - Follow-up audits will be conducted every 18 months to verify ongoing compliance with the IRMA standard, with results made publicly available [5][6] - Areas for improvement have been identified, focusing on best practices, stakeholder engagement, grievance management, resettlement processes, and water quality monitoring [10][11] Group 4: Commitment to Responsible Mining - The achievement of the IRMA 50 level aligns with the State of Senegal's goals for economic sovereignty and responsible development in the mining sector [8] - The Eramet Group aims to leverage this responsible mining approach to engage stakeholders in adopting higher environmental and social standards [9]

Eramet tumbled on the Paris stock market on Monday as the firing of its CEO just months into his term caught investors by surprise and raised questions over governance at the nickel, manganese and lit... ...

French mining company Eramet terminated the mandate of CEO Paulo Castellari on Sunday over what it called divergences in operating methods https://t.co/9OqcMaRslX ...

Core Viewpoint - The Board of Directors of Eramet has terminated the mandate of CEO Paulo Castellari due to operational method divergences, effective immediately, and appointed Chairwoman Christel Bories as interim CEO while searching for a new CEO [1][2]. Group Management Changes - Paulo Castellari's termination as CEO is attributed to differences in operational methods [1]. - Christel Bories has been appointed as interim CEO, with the intention to separate the roles of Chair and CEO once a new CEO is selected [2]. Company Performance and Strategy - The Board expresses gratitude to Paulo Castellari for his contributions and emphasizes ongoing commitments to safety, operational performance, and cost reduction in a challenging environment [3]. - Eramet's portfolio includes world-class assets that are well-positioned to support the energy transition, with a successful lithium site ramp-up in Argentina serving as a new growth pillar [3]. Upcoming Financial Reporting - The publication of the Group's annual results is scheduled for February 18, 2026 [4]. Company Overview - Eramet focuses on transforming Earth's mineral resources to provide sustainable solutions for industrial growth and energy transition challenges, with a commitment to responsible practices across its operations [5]. - The company recovers and develops essential metals such as manganese, nickel, lithium, and cobalt, contributing to sustainable infrastructure and technology [6].