证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 02 02 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 美联储迎来沃什，4 大关键点 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】美联储迎来沃什，4 大关键点——20260201 【宏观】物价回升如何影响税收收入？—2025 年财政回顾与 2026 年展 望——20260131 【宏观】1 月 PMI 超季节性回落的背后——20260131 【策略】月度高胜率窗口的经验与应对——20260201 【海外】优选地产、大宗和科技——2026 年 2 月海外金股推荐—— 20260131 【金融工程】短期调整不足为惧——20260201 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周拥挤度指标明显弱化——20260131 【固定收益】联储换帅、市场波动与债市逻辑——20260201 【固定收益】赎纯债、降久期、增信用——债基 2025Q4 季报分析—— 20260201 【固定收益】资金平稳跨月，存单偿还地方债放量——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20260131 【固定收益】固收+继续扩张，增配科技化工——25Q4 基金转债持仓分 析——20260131 【电新】低轨星座竞赛与太空算力革命，引爆太空光 ...

一周时间，黄金克重价格从1255元降至1060元，线下门店销售也如同过山车。2月1日，北京商报记者走 访线下多家门店看到，一些黄金品牌的柜台客流明显减少，回收业务反而引发排队热潮。同时，个别门 店的小克重投资金条出现缺货情况。记者从商场内部了解到，商场内黄金品牌一周的日销售额，最高达 21万元，低则仅为3000元。线下金店的困境，不仅源于金价波动和消费心态变化，更暴露出传统黄金零 售模式的深层弊端。有分析认为，传统线下金店须打破传统盈利模式，降低溢价，优化库存管理，同时 精准对接消费者需求，提升产品设计和服务质量，才有望在行业洗牌中脱颖而出。 销售冰火两重天 黄金价格的大幅波动，让消费市场面临大考。北京商报记者走访西单商圈看到，周日下午商场内人头攒 动，但黄金柜台前却门可罗雀。在西单大悦城二层黄金珠宝区域，大部分消费者多在咨询当日金价，真 正出手购买的消费者却并不多。其中一家品牌门店的销售人员表示，近两日黄金价格跳水，相比一周前 排队购买的情况，目前大部分消费者处于观望状态。 位于汉光百货二层的黄金珠宝区域，依旧大多为观望的消费者。一位老凤祥的员工表示，2月2日的黄金 开盘价格或将决定未来的销售业绩，若金价持 ...

一周时间，黄金克重价格从最高1255元到1060元，线下门店销售亦如同过山车。2月1日，北京商报记者走访线下多家门店看到，一些黄金品牌的柜台客流明 显减少，回收业务反而引发排队热潮。同时，个别门店的小克重投资金条出现缺货情况。记者从商场内部了解到，场内黄金品牌一周内的日销售额，高的达 到21万元，低则只有3000元。 线下金店的困境，不仅源于金价波动和消费心态变化，更暴露了传统黄金零售模式的深层弊端。分析指出，传统线下金店须打破传统盈利模式，降低溢价， 优化库存管理，同时精准对接消费者需求，提升产品设计和服务质量，才有望在行业洗牌中脱颖而出。 t mk s Ball 0 U 41 1 t 2017 1 - 2 a ry 44 0 11 5 a f 销售冰火两重天 回购业务进入高峰 黄金价格的大幅波动，让C端市场面临一场大考。北京商报记者走访西单商圈看到，周日下午商场内人头攒动，但黄金柜台前门可罗雀。在西单大悦城二层 的黄金珠宝区域，大部分消费者多为咨询当日金价，真正购买的人群寥寥无几。其中一家品牌门店销售人员表示，近两日黄金价格跳水，相比一周前排队购 买的情况，门店购买人数减少，大部分消费者处于观望状态。 位 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of HBN, a leading domestic skincare brand, which has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong growth potential in the efficacy skincare market [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends high-quality companies in high-growth sectors, including gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [6][49] Summary by Sections Retail and Social Services Market Review - For the week of January 26 to January 30, the retail and social services indices closed at 2435.34 points and 9283.84 points, respectively, with declines of 4.18% and 3.45% [5][14] - The jewelry sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 7.07% and a year-to-date increase of 19.39% [15][18] Industry Dynamics: HBN and Efficacy Skincare - HBN, established in 2019, is the largest domestic skincare brand in the efficacy segment, focusing on visible results and innovative product strategies [24][25] - The brand's core products, including the "A Retinol" series, have achieved significant sales milestones, with a strong emphasis on scientific validation and consumer trust [29][33] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus areas include: - Gold and jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Laopuhuang and Chaohongji [6][49] - Offline retail companies adapting to market changes, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][49] - Domestic cosmetics brands that emphasize emotional value and safety, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [6][50] - Medical aesthetics firms with unique product lines, recommending Meilitiantian Medical Health and Aimeike [6][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of HBN, a leading domestic skincare brand, which has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong growth potential in the efficacy skincare market [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][49] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - The commercial retail and social services indices reported declines of 4.18% and 3.45% respectively during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, ranking 26th and 23rd among 31 primary industries [5][14] - The jewelry sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 7.07% and a year-to-date increase of 19.39% [15][18] Key Industry Developments - HBN, established in 2019, is recognized as the largest domestic skincare brand in the efficacy skincare segment, with a market share of 0.8% in the Chinese improvement skincare market as of 2024 [24][25] - HBN's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with high-efficacy skincare products accounting for 78.6% of total revenue [29] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [6][49] - Investment Theme 2: Highlighting retail companies that adapt to emotional value and intelligent trends, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][49] - Investment Theme 3: Emphasizing beauty and personal care brands that innovate with emotional value and safe ingredients, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [6][50] - Investment Theme 4: Targeting differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Aimeike and Meilitiantian [6][51]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the gold jewelry sector, indicating that consumer enthusiasm remains strong despite fluctuations in gold prices, particularly during the Chinese New Year [10][24]. Core Insights - On January 30, gold prices experienced significant volatility, yet consumer interest in Lao Pu gold stores remained high, showcasing the brand's growing influence [10]. - Promotional activities at Lao Pu gold stores and SKP malls are expected to sustain high-end gold brand consumption during the Spring Festival, with various discounts and gifts driving consumer demand [10]. - Lao Pu gold's fixed-price model contrasts with competitors that price by weight, leading to stronger consumer expectations for price increases, thus insulating the brand from gold price fluctuations [10]. - The report highlights that despite a drop in gold prices at the end of January 2026, certain Lao Pu stores in Shanghai and Beijing continued to see long queues, indicating strong brand appeal during price volatility [10]. Industry Data Tracking - According to Guojin Digital Future Lab, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com in the fourth week of December increased by 49.2% year-on-year [11]. - The top five categories in terms of growth during this period were books and audio-visual products, automotive and bicycles, watches, toys, and shoes and bags [11]. Market Review - For the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index recorded changes of -0.44%, -1.62%, 0.08%, 2.38%, and -1.38% respectively, while the retail sector saw a gain of 4.18% [17]. - Notable stock performances included *ST Huike, Yiyaton, Yiwan Yichuang, Yuyuan Co., and Kaichun Co., which saw gains attributed to AI application catalysts [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cross-border e-commerce, particularly companies with strong brand power and product differentiation, which are expected to show resilience in performance [24]. - In the gold jewelry sector, the report anticipates that consumer enthusiasm will remain strong despite high baseline figures in January, with same-store growth expected to continue [24]. - The report highlights the potential for companies like Chao Hong Ji, which is expected to benefit from new product launches and an increase in self-produced products, driving profitability [24]. - The duty-free sector is also noted for its potential growth, particularly with the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is expected to significantly impact local and national duty-free businesses [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel industry, including Li Ning, Anta Sports, Shenzhou International, and others [9][21][29]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a low overall fund holding ratio, with a total market value of approximately 9.76 billion yuan at the end of Q4 2025, slightly down from 10.31 billion yuan at the end of Q3 2025. However, the proportion of heavy holdings increased from 0.13% to 0.25% [1][12]. - The report highlights the resilience of the sports footwear and apparel sector, predicting it will outperform the broader apparel market in the long term. Companies like Li Ning and Anta Sports are expected to manage inventory effectively and benefit from upcoming marketing initiatives [2][17]. - The report emphasizes the healthy inventory levels in the industry, anticipating that stable replenishment from downstream will lead to increased orders for upstream manufacturers [3][18]. - The report suggests focusing on quality stocks with stable growth or potential for performance reversal, particularly in the brand apparel segment, where companies like HLA and Luolai Living are highlighted for their growth prospects [4][19]. Summary by Sections Fund Position Analysis - The textile and apparel sector's fund holding ratio remains low, with significant increases in holdings across sub-sectors such as home textiles, textile manufacturing, and accessories [1][12][15]. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with declines noted in both textile manufacturing and brand apparel segments [24][25]. Key Company Recommendations - Li Ning is recommended due to its expected brand strength during the Olympic cycle, with projected profits of 2.74 billion yuan in 2025 and a growth forecast for 2026 [2][17]. - Anta Sports is highlighted for its strong operational capabilities, with expected profits of 13.2 billion yuan in 2025 and growth in 2026 [2][17]. - Shenzhou International is recommended for its cost-effectiveness and positive customer trends, with a projected PE ratio of 11 times for 2026 [3][18]. - HLA is expected to see stable profit growth, with a projected PE ratio of 12 times for 2026 [4][19].

作者：行情君 本文源自：市场资讯 2月1日10点，国际金价报4860.3美元/盎司，国际钯金报1698.5美元/盎司，国际银价报84.42美元/盎司， 国内金价报1125.0元/克。 根据国内主要品牌金店报价，周大福价格最高为1625元/克，老凤祥价格最低为1498元/克；周生生今日 黄金价格1618元/克，六福珠宝今日黄金价格1625元/克，谢瑞麟今日黄金价格1625元/克，金至尊今日黄 金价格1625元/克，潮宏基今日黄金价格1625元/克，菜百首饰今日黄金价格1552元/克，老庙黄金今日黄 金价格1546元/克，中国黄金今日黄金价格1552元/克，周六福今日黄金价格1620元/克。 ...