旅游景区&商超百货公司符合量化投资审美的特点 旅游景区&商超百货公司的一些特殊特点，该行认为是符合量化投资的审美，包括：①重置成本高，资 产具备较高实际价值，②股价单价较低，③机构持仓较少，④政策持续促进的方向。这些使得旅游景区 &商超百货公司的股票，时常会体现出较大的弹性，而其总盈利容量与交易量也较大，可以容纳各种不 同的策略。 并非只有利润表是"基本面" "基本面"通常被认为是"利润表的改善或提升空间"，但实际上，旅游景区&商超百货公司，其资产是有 实际的重估价值的，这个重估价值并不能体现在利润表里，但确实也是公司资产的基本面，而这个资产 重估的实际价值，在过去时常以实际股权交易案例体现出来，如三江购物，永辉超市等股权交易。 智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，关注旅游景区&商超百货的四大边际变化方向——股权&管 理层&牌照&新经济模式变化，自上而下政策对于消费促进的方向，叠加符合量化投资审美的特点，旅 游景区与商超百货公司，其潜在投资价值被激活的空间较大。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 旅游景区&商超百货公司的资产特殊性 旅游景区&商超百货公司，其资产较重，重置成本较高，但其利润表表现相应没那么强，同时满 ...

1月5日，记者从渭南市商务局获悉：2025年，渭南市商务系统将消费品以旧换新作为提振消费的关 键举措，持续释放政策红利，全年拉动消费36.9亿元。 作为惠民利企的重要抓手，渭南市以旧换新政策精准聚焦群众消费需求，覆盖汽车、家电、数码产 品等重点领域，通过真金白银的补贴激发市场活力。在政策实施过程中，渭南市商务系统强化统筹协 调，优化申领流程，推动政策落地见效，让消费者在以旧换新过程中享受优惠，同时助力企业扩大销 售、盘活存量市场。 在以旧换新政策带动下，渭南市消费市场多点发力、亮点纷呈。2025年1月至11月，渭南市限上消 费品零售额同比增长7.3%，较年初提高2.8个百分点；前三季度社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.8%，消 费市场韧性持续显现。与此同时，聚焦商超百货、住宿餐饮、成品油等类别发放本地消费券，与以旧换 新政策形成叠加效应，进一步放大了政策惠民实效。 为持续释放消费潜力，今年，渭南市将进一步调整优化以旧换新补贴范围和标准，持续放大政策效 能。目前，汽车、家电和数码产品参与活动企业征集工作正在有序推进。 渭南市商务局相关负责人表示，渭南市将持续深化促消费政策创新，推动以旧换新与电商促销、产 销对接、文 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·社会服务 社会服务行业深度报告 服务消费深度研究-旅游景区&商超百货：量 化投资风格与政策促进方向的共振 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：宏观经济波动，市场竞争风险，居民消费习惯变迁等。 2026 年 01 月 07 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600525070003 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025/1/7 2025/5/8 2025/9/6 2026/1/5 社会服务 沪深300 相关研究 《高教股：低估值硬资产发生了怎样 的转变？》 2025-09-14 《连锁餐饮行业框架（一）：规模与格 局，逆周期下的连锁化浪潮》 2025-05-28 东吴证券研究所 1 / 30 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 旅游景区&商超百货公司的资产特殊性：旅游景区&商超百货公司，其 资产较重，重置成本较高，但其利润表表现 ...

消费复苏态势延续；把握景气及顺周期 --商社行业2026年度投资策略 证券分析师 姓名：丁一 S1350524040003 行业评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 商贸零售 2025年12月28日 主要内容 1. 2025年行业发展回顾 2. 2026年行业机会展望 3. 重点标的 4. 风险提示 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 n 2025年行业发展回顾 n 风险提示 Ø 经济环境表现不及预期；行业竞争加剧风险；出海政策风险；品牌力下降风险。 2 dingyi@huayuanstock.com Ø 社服、零售板块涨跌幅表现弱于沪深300指数，社服板块涨跌幅好于零售板块 Ø 黄金珠宝：金银珠宝零售总额高增，或主要受益于金价高涨；消费趋势看，黄金珠宝情绪价值驱动消费，珠宝品牌出海进行时 Ø 餐饮行业：餐饮供给端或进入理性增长阶段；消费趋势看，餐饮连锁化率预计持续提升，性价比消费趋势凸显 Ø 出行链：出行端持续复苏，节假日出行需求旺盛；细分表现看，海南离岛免税额9-10月增速转正；博彩端景气度较高 n 2026年行业机会展望 Ø 方向一——消费复苏态势延续：1）关注高端消费中免税、博彩、酒 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that the cross-year consumption trend is driven by policy and expected recovery, with general retail and tourism sectors performing well [12][19] - It emphasizes the strong recovery in offline consumption during the New Year and Spring Festival, particularly in major cities [17] - The tourism sector is projected to see significant growth in consumer spending, with a daily average of 6.263 million trips during the Spring Festival, representing 126% of 2019 levels [19] Summary by Sections Cross-Year Consumption Trends - The report analyzes the market performance from 2019 to 2025, noting that general retail and tourism sectors have outperformed others during the cross-year period [12] - The upcoming Q1 consumption peak and policy catalysts are expected to drive strong performance in the retail sector [12] General Retail and Supermarkets - The report anticipates a robust recovery in offline consumption during the New Year and Spring Festival, with significant year-on-year growth in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [17] - For the Spring Festival 2025, Shanghai's offline consumption is projected to reach 46.5 billion RMB, while Beijing and Guangzhou are expected to see 8.1 billion RMB and 36.4 billion RMB, respectively [17] Tourism and Travel - The Spring Festival is expected to be the largest travel season after National Day and May Day, with daily average spending of 84.6 billion RMB, second only to National Day [19] - The average spending per person during the Spring Festival is projected to be 1,351 RMB, indicating a recovery trend, although it has not yet reached 2019 levels [19] Key Company Announcements and Industry News - The report includes significant announcements from companies such as Zhejiang China Commodity City Group, which appointed new executives [23] - It also notes that the National Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.3% year-on-year increase in retail sales for November 2025, with service retail sales growing by 5.4% from January to November [24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with strong organizational structures and management capabilities in the beauty and personal care sector, such as Mao Geping and Shangmei [25] - In the gold and jewelry sector, it suggests focusing on high-quality brands like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [25] - For the cross-border e-commerce sector, it highlights the easing of tariff conflicts and the recovery of demand, recommending companies like Xiaoshangpin City and Jiao Dian Technology [25] - In the supermarket and retail sector, it advises monitoring companies like Miniso and Yonghui Supermarket for their reform effectiveness [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector, indicating expected performance above the market index [3][41]. Core Views - The overall consumption growth remains stable, with retail sales in August 2025 reaching CNY 3.97 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The growth in commodity retail sales was 3.6%, while catering revenue grew by 2.1% [1][14]. - The report highlights that individual stock performance will be more significant than overall industry trends in the current market environment, emphasizing the importance of stock selection [1][11]. Summary by Sections Beauty and Personal Care - The third quarter is typically a slow season for the cosmetics industry, but marketing efforts have been advanced in preparation for Q4 promotions. Despite a supportive year-on-year growth forecast, rising online channel costs and a lack of product innovation are expected to increase expense ratios, leading to continued stock differentiation within the sector [1][12]. Gold and Jewelry - In August 2025, the gold and jewelry sector saw a retail sales increase of 16.8% year-on-year. The sector is expected to perform well due to low base effects and rising gold prices. Products that appeal to younger consumers, such as fixed-price gold items, are anticipated to see growth above the industry average [1][12]. Supermarkets and Department Stores - From January to August 2025, department store retail sales slightly increased by 1.2%, while supermarket sales grew by 4.9%. The sector is undergoing a transformation, and companies are expected to stabilize their performance in the second half of the year, setting the stage for a potential rebound in 2026 [2][12]. Cross-Border E-commerce - Major companies in the cross-border e-commerce sector are expected to benefit from steady overseas demand and domestic product innovation. However, profit margins may vary due to external environmental disruptions. Leading domestic platforms are seen as resilient against risks due to their strong product capabilities and flexible tariff strategies [2][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including: - Beauty and Personal Care: Upgrading products and refining channel operations are expected to enhance market share for domestic leaders like Shiseido, Aokang Technology, and others [3][41]. - Gold and Jewelry: Companies focusing on differentiated designs and fixed-price products, such as Chow Tai Fook and Man Ka Long, are expected to benefit from current market conditions [3][41]. - Offline Retail: Companies like Miniso and Yonghui Supermarket are highlighted for their potential to improve performance amid a stable domestic demand environment [3][41]. - Cross-Border E-commerce: Companies with strong risk resilience, such as Small Commodity City and Focus Technology, are recommended for investment during market dips [3][41].

Group 1 - The event in Sanhe City showcased 29 intangible cultural heritage (ICH) booths, featuring exquisite handicrafts and enticing food, with 19 enterprises representing various sectors such as automotive, agricultural products, real estate, and sports goods, enhancing consumer engagement and vitality [1] - The "Sanhe Five-a-Side Football Super League" is currently ongoing, with over 500 spectators present at the matches, which are organized by the Sanhe municipal government and involve 23 teams from different localities, running from September to November [1] - The event aims to integrate commerce, tourism, culture, and sports, creating a unique "watching and experiencing" consumption scenario that enriches the spectator experience and stimulates local economic growth by converting event traffic into economic increments [1] Group 2 - Sanhe City is leveraging the popularity of the football event by distributing consumer vouchers totaling over 79,000 yuan to stimulate the market, available for use in various local businesses from September 6 to October 8 [2] - The city is actively exploring innovative measures for the integration of commerce, tourism, culture, and sports, promoting night economy initiatives and cultural markets to enhance consumer engagement and extend the consumption chain [2] - The city organizes themed markets and cultural experiences during traditional festivals, aiming to attract crowds and boost local dining and retail consumption, thereby promoting the synergy between culture and economy [2]

Core Insights - The "潮朝外 码上 GO" consumer season market has opened at Meike Meijia Plaza, providing a diverse shopping experience combining culture, tourism, food, and interaction for residents in the Chaoyang District [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The market features over 40 participating merchants, offering a range of products including specialty snacks, cultural and creative goods, and daily necessities [1] - The "爱逛码" mini-program has been launched to support the market, allowing some merchants to accept online orders for home delivery or in-store pickup [1] Group 2: Mini-Program Impact - The "爱逛码" mini-program has attracted over 350 merchants from various business circles in Chaoyang since its launch 8 months ago [1] - The program has generated over 1 million yuan in additional revenue for merchants and saved consumers over 520,000 yuan, with more than 15,000 offline orders processed [1] Group 3: Consumer Engagement - Merchants' products are fully available online, enabling a one-stop operation for coupon collection, ordering, and redemption [1] - Consumers can access real-time coupons, local discount information, and in-store redemption features through the "爱逛码" mini-program [1]

Core Insights - Instant retail is reshaping lifestyles, with a projected market size of over 1.5 trillion yuan in 2024, growing at a rate of 26.2% [1] - Major platforms like Meituan, Taobao, and JD are intensifying competition in the instant retail space, enhancing market penetration [1] - The complexity of grocery and general merchandise delivery presents challenges in packaging, distribution, and operations, necessitating efficient fulfillment and quality assurance [1] Group 1: Delivery Solutions - SF Express has launched a tailored delivery solution for grocery and general merchandise, addressing pain points in self-delivery and platform delivery models [1][12] - A standardized delivery process has been established, ensuring the safe transport of diverse products while maintaining their quality [3] - The delivery radius for grocery items typically spans 3 to 5 kilometers, requiring customized fulfillment strategies to manage complex delivery needs [6] Group 2: Brand and Service Standardization - In a competitive retail environment, building a brand membership system and standardizing service across channels is crucial for differentiation [4] - Consumers are increasingly seeking branded and standardized service experiences, prompting businesses to establish unified quality service standards [4] - SF Express offers customized delivery personnel and fulfillment plans, enhancing brand recognition and consumer trust [4] Group 3: Integrated Operations - The instant retail ecosystem is expanding, with brands shifting towards an integrated public and private domain operational model [9] - Brands are leveraging membership systems to enhance customer retention while also utilizing multiple public domain platforms for growth [9] - SF Express provides comprehensive channel support, allowing brands to maintain pricing and operational autonomy while improving efficiency and reducing costs [9] Group 4: Case Study and Performance - Sam's Club's online channels contribute approximately 55% of sales, with 70% of orders fulfilled through front warehouses [10] - SF Express has reported a 26.2% year-on-year increase in non-food business revenue, reaching 3.695 billion yuan, with significant growth in grocery and convenience categories [12] - Collaborations with major retailers like Sam's Club and Metro are enhancing service experiences and expanding business scales [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its H1 2025 performance, showing a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating a resilient profit margin despite revenue challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue was 8.04 billion yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 770 million yuan, up 8.7% [2]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 3.77 billion yuan, down 8.8%, with net profit of 300 million yuan, up 8.0% [3]. Business Segment Analysis - The department store segment faced pressure on revenue due to lower customer spending, despite improvements in foot traffic and average transaction value [3]. - The supermarket segment is expected to maintain slight revenue growth due to ongoing store adjustments [3]. - The appliance segment experienced a revenue decline of approximately 15% in June due to the temporary suspension of national subsidies and a narrowing of the subsidy scope [3]. - The automotive trade business is transitioning from traditional fuel vehicles to a consignment sales model for new energy vehicles, impacting reported revenue [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - H1 2025 gross margin improved by 1.78 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 showing a 2.2 percentage point increase [4]. - The automotive trade segment saw significant gross margin improvement due to changes in sales models and product matrix optimization [4]. - Total expenses decreased by 5.3% in H1 2025, supported by organizational optimization and cost reduction efforts [5]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from resilient consumer demand in Chongqing and proactive adjustments across various business segments, leading to stable growth [5]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 is 1.38 billion yuan and 1.47 billion yuan, respectively, with a current valuation of 9x, indicating a safety margin [5].