★春节前后科技反弹窗口将至！布局错杀修复与硬科技主线 【本期重点】 ★剧震中的主线切换：高切低行情下，如何把握科技与内需的轮动脉搏？ ★春节行情"预热"：服务消费领跑，数据微光下的结构性机会 ★油价"上有顶、下有底"，三桶油股息在走高 ★事件驱动行情接近尾声，煤价继续上涨空间有限 本期会谈邀请数位买方机构的基金经理，对大盘、政策、以及后市投资机会等进行深度交流。 ★在分歧中锁定共识：全球AI资本开支加速，硬件是穿越波动的"锚" ★旺季将至+政策催化，锂电迎来布局黄金窗口 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the polyester sector, particularly recommending high-quality companies in the polyester filament and bottle chip segments [6][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the cost support for polyester filament remains solid, with expectations for inventory replenishment post-holiday. The operating rate of polyester filament has significantly decreased, laying a foundation for recovery after the Spring Festival [6][7]. - Polyester filament inventory has been consistently declining since the beginning of 2026, with downstream textile raw material inventory also at low levels, indicating a strong demand for replenishment after the holiday [7][11]. - The price spread of polyester filament has improved significantly, with cost support expected to remain strong due to stable raw material prices and proactive supply adjustments [11][13]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate of polyester filament has dropped to 79.65%, down approximately 16 percentage points from previous highs, as companies conduct maintenance ahead of the holiday [6]. - Downstream textile operating rates have fallen to 25.15%, marking a low for the year, which is expected to lead to a rigid demand for inventory replenishment post-holiday [6][7]. Price Trends - As of February 6, 2026, the price spreads for polyester filament POY, FDY, and DTY are 1375, 1575, and 2475 CNY/ton respectively, indicating a recovery in price spreads since late January 2026 [11]. - The PTA price, a key raw material for polyester filament, remains high, with limited downward pressure expected, providing solid support for filament prices throughout the year [11][13]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester filament sector such as Tongkun Co., Ltd. and in the bottle chip sector like Wankai New Materials. It also suggests monitoring leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures [13][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester filament industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for quality companies in this sector [5][14]. Core Insights - The cost support for polyester filament raw materials remains solid, with expectations for a post-holiday inventory replenishment trend. The industry is currently in a seasonal lull before the Spring Festival, but proactive supply adjustments are laying the groundwork for recovery after the holiday [5][6]. - As of February 6, 2026, the operating rate for downstream textile production has dropped to 25.15%, while the operating rate for polyester filament has decreased to 79.65%. This decline is attributed to seasonal maintenance and self-regulated production cuts, effectively alleviating supply pressure [5][6]. - Inventory levels for polyester filament (POY/FDY/DTY) are at historical lows, with respective days of inventory at 12.7, 15.8, and 19.4 days. Downstream raw material inventory has also fallen to a historical low of 8.74 days, indicating a clear need for replenishment post-holiday [5][7]. - The price spread for polyester filament has significantly improved since late January 2026, with POY/FDY/DTY spreads recovering to 1375, 1575, and 2475 CNY/ton respectively. The PTA cost support remains robust, with no major new PTA facilities expected to come online in 2026, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance that will continue to support filament prices [5][12]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with the closing price on February 6, 2026, at 68.05 USD/barrel, down 3.73% from the previous week. The WTI price was 63.55 USD/barrel, down 2.55% [21]. - As of January 30, 2026, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 420 million barrels, a decrease of 3.455 million barrels from the previous week, marking a 4% decline compared to the past five years [23]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore increased to 15.63 USD/barrel as of February 6, 2026, reflecting a rise of 6.2 USD/barrel from the previous week [60]. - The price spread for gasoline (RBOB) against WTI crude oil was 18.4 USD/barrel, up 1.8 USD/barrel from the previous week, although still below the historical average of 24.5 USD/barrel [63]. Polyester Sector - The profitability of PTA has increased, while the profitability of polyester filament has decreased. As of February 4, 2026, the average price of PX in Asia was 904.93 USD/ton, down 1.78% week-on-week [5][14]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is currently average, with expectations for gradual improvement as new production capacities are expected to taper off in the coming years [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for the global chemical industry driven by the new demand cycle from anti-involution and AI, with a focus on the upcoming peak season in the chemical sector leading to price increases [1][2] - Chinese chemical companies are expected to benefit from solid cost and efficiency advantages, entering a long-term upward performance cycle [2] - The report emphasizes the potential for increased dividend yields as supply-side constraints and demand recovery enhance industry profitability [2] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on sectors with supply constraints and recovering demand, which are likely to see sustained improvements in industry conditions [2] - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Coal Chemical: Hualu Chemical, Luxi Chemical, Baofeng Energy 2. Oil Refining: Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC 3. Polyurethane: Wanhua Chemical, Huafeng Chemical 4. Phosphate Fertilizer: Yuntianhua, Yuntu Holdings, Xinyangfeng, Batian Shares 5. Pesticides: Yangnong Chemical, Lier Chemical, Xingfa Group, Limin Shares, Jiangshan Shares, Xin'an Shares, Runfeng Shares 6. Potash Fertilizer: Salt Lake Shares, Yara International, Oriental Iron Tower [2] Supply Drivers - The report notes that domestic anti-involution measures and the exit of European production capacity are expected to support the chemical industry's recovery [3] Demand Drivers - The report identifies several demand-driven opportunities, including: 1. Gas turbines and SOFC upstream: Zhenhua Shares, Yingliu Shares, Longda Shares, Wanze Shares, Sanhuan Group 2. Refrigerants and fluorinated liquids: Juhua Shares, New Zhoubang, Runhe Materials 3. Energy storage industry chain: Chuanheng Shares, Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, Batian Shares, Yuntu Holdings 4. Robotics materials industry chain: PEEK - Kingfa Technology, Zhongyan Shares, Guoen Shares, Huitong Shares 5. Semiconductor materials industry chain: Photoresists: Yanggu Huatai, Wanhua Shares, Dinglong Shares, Tongcheng New Materials, Jingrui Electric Materials, Jiuri New Materials, Yake Technology [7][10] Recent Performance - The chemical industry has shown strong relative performance, with a 1-month increase of 5.7%, a 3-month increase of 15.4%, and a 12-month increase of 47.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [5] Key Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for many, with several companies rated as "Buy" [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Oil ETF (561360), which opened with a gain of 0.84% at 1.442 yuan on February 9 [1] - The major holdings of the Oil ETF include China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Sinopec, with varying performance: China National Petroleum down 0.74%, China National Offshore Oil down 0.29%, and Sinopec unchanged [1] - The Oil ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index return, managed by Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 42.91% since its establishment on October 23, 2023, and a return of 13.78% over the past month [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances within the ETF include Jerry Holdings up 2.76%, China Merchants Energy up 2.55%, and Henglian Petrochemical up 1.17% [1] - The article provides a detailed overview of the ETF's performance metrics, indicating a strong upward trend in the oil sector [1]

截至10：26，中证石化产业指数（H11057）涨0.83%，权重股万华化学涨0.12%，中国石油跌0.37%，中 国石化涨0.62%，盐湖股份涨1.7%，中国海油跌0.79%，藏格矿业涨2.78%，巨化股份跌0.25%，恒力石 化跌0.12%，华鲁恒升跌0.25%，宝丰能源涨0.66%。截至2月6日，该指数近一年上涨47.26%。 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）跟踪中证石化产业指数，备受资金青睐。数据显示，该基金连续10日获 资金净流入，合计超13亿；最新基金规模攀升至16.98亿元。 | 近5日净流入 | | | 单位(万元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 25217 | | | | | | 1402 | 2942 | 4852 1413 | | 2-2 | 2-3 | 2-4 | 2-5 2-6 | | 天数 | | 净流天 | 净流额 净流率 | | 5 | | 5 | 35824 25.94% | | 10 | | 10 | 130943 309.61% | | 20 | | 16 | 146086 588.64% | 消息面上，美国与伊朗之间持续的紧张局势促使投 ...

石油ETF鹏华(159697)，场外联接(A：019827；C：019828；I：022861)。 截至2026年2月9日 11:00，国证石油天然气指数(399439)上涨0.56%，成分股和顺石油上涨7.28%，杰瑞 股份上涨7.17%，招商轮船上涨6.16%，中远海能上涨3.69%，洪田股份上涨3.00%。石油ETF鹏华 (159697)上涨0.67%，最新价报1.34元。 石油ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相 关上市公司的证券价格变化情况。 消息面上，全球区域局势不断升温，当地时间6日，古巴通报即将采取的一系列紧急措施，旨在全力保 障社会基本服务运转。主要内容包括：燃料将优先用于保障民生基本服务及关键经济活动，非必要活动 予以推迟；积极恢复燃料供应，扩大本国原油产量，并加快绿色能源项目的建设与投入使用；实施燃料 配给与节能措施，行政工作集中安排在周一至周四进行；确保居民供水、粮食生产、医疗卫生、国防安 全、灾害预警和创汇产业等关键领域的燃料供应等。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 信达证券指出，截至2026 ...

近日，标普全球能源CERA数据发布的2026年原油行业报告显示，2026年全球八大待投产油田开发项 目，将为原油市场新增逾45万桶/日供应量。其中非洲与南美洲成为绝对主力，美国、中东增量有限， 且新增产能集中于非OPEC+国家，以海上及深水项目为主。 中东仅伊拉克有项目入围，其东巴格达浅水油田计划2026年年中扩产，新增日产量4.65万桶，待南部油 田扩产完工后，2027年总产量将达12万桶/日，以轻质至中质原油为主，在区域增量中占比偏低。 北美原油增量集中于美国，阿拉斯加州皮卡油田是该区域最受期待的陆上油气资产，由桑托斯与雷普索 尔联合开发，位于北坡盆地，包含原油处理设施及钻井场，2026年底初期日产量4.1万桶，峰值将达7.6 万桶，预估可采储量4.25亿桶。墨西哥湾有两个深水项目上半年投产，合计新增日产量3.9万桶： Buckskin油田二期3月投产，新增1.86万桶/日，可采储量1.49亿桶；Monument油田7月投产，日产量超2 万桶，可采储量1.5亿桶。 关于新增产量对油市的影响，沙特分析师阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·穆克比尔指出，2026年上游新项目虽多，但 增量产能的可靠性与投放能力，受制于物料、技术及 ...

Group 1 - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has established a new subsidiary named CNOOC (Shanwei) New Energy Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 1 billion RMB [1] - The legal representative of the new company is Zhang Chuantao, and it is fully owned by CNOOC (China) Limited [1] - The business scope of the new company includes energy management contracts, power generation, transmission, and distribution services, as well as installation, maintenance, and testing of electrical facilities [1][2] Group 2 - The company is registered in Shanwei City and has a business duration until February 6, 2026, with no fixed term thereafter [2] - The company is classified as a limited liability company (sole proprietorship) in the power production industry [2] - The establishment of this new energy company indicates CNOOC's strategic move into the renewable energy sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recently, CNOOC (Shanwei) New Energy Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 1 billion RMB, indicating a strategic move into the renewable energy sector by CNOOC [1] Company Information - The legal representative of the newly established company is Zhang Chuantao [1] - The company is wholly owned by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1] Business Scope - The business scope includes contract energy management, power generation, power transmission, and distribution services [1] - The company will also engage in the installation, maintenance, and testing of power transmission, distribution, and receiving facilities [1]