2026 年 01 月 11 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 于畅 S0350124080008 | | | | yuc02@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 多晶硅、丁二烯价格上涨，关注反内卷和铬盐 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2026/01/09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 | 10.7% | 9.6% | 45.1% | | 沪深 300 | 3.5% | 1.0% | 25.9% | 相关报告 《基础化工行业周报：辛醇、硫酸价格上涨，关注 反内卷和铬盐（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏》 ——2025-12-08 《基础化工行 ...

行业深度分析 投资评级：买入-A 周期伊始，破卷而立 ——2026年度化工投资展望 | 王华炳：S1450525110002 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 郝逸璇：S1450125110007 | 联系人 | | 王友舜：S1450125110015 | 联系人 | 2026年1月6日 证券研究报告 核心结论 新周期的两个观察： 一、"反内卷"的主动与被动。 二、新质生产力方向发力。2025年10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》发布。核心内容看，"高水平科技自立自强"被置于 前所未有的战略高度。重点方向看，科技创新、绿色能源、高端制造、消费升级四大领域成为政策发力的核心方向，新质生产力培育成为贯穿各领域的主线。化工领域 投资机会层面，建议重点关注： 引言：当前化工行业正处于长达四年的下行周期底部，多项指标显示行业已基本触底，2026年有望成为周期反转的转折点。从价格指标来看，中国化工产品价 格指数(CCPI)在2025年12月31日报3930点，较2021年的高点下降39%，处于近五年百分位的23%，表明行业已进入历史低位区间。从盈利指标分析，2025年 ...

2、国内有机硅行业自律行动推进：近期，有机硅行业通过产业自律协同调涨价格，有机硅主流单体厂 于11/18召开行业会议，会后山东单体厂报盘涨至13100元/吨，其余主流单体厂报盘涨至13200元/吨。 产业趋势：《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》出台以来，在政策支持之下，产业科技 创新能力有望得到增强，新型市场及应用需求有望得到拓展，供给端有望得到科学调控，石化化工行业 转型升级有望加速。化工板块资本开支已近尾声，在建工程同比连续三个季度下滑，叠加老旧装置淘汰 更新+节能降碳等"反内卷"政策的深化与显效，部分两高及落后产能确定性退出，中小型企业加速出 清，供给端边际明显改善。2025三季度石化产业指数整体ROE小幅回升至10.1%，筑底态势趋于明确， 而市盈率分位数仍处于近十年中枢水平附近，板块估值性价比值得关注。 相关产品：化工行业ETF（516570，场外联接A/C: 020104/020105）一键打包三桶油、万华化学等石油 石化、基础化工产业龙头，指数构成接近于石化化工板块中哑铃策略标的，同时涵盖高股息+高成长成 份券，2023年以来收益表现在可比化工行业指数中保持领先。化工行业ET ...

MDI Market Overview and Outlook Industry Overview - The global MDI market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, primarily due to new capacities from China and South Korea, coupled with the impact of US-China tariffs, which limit price increase momentum. The domestic market has entered a low season, and short-term prices are expected to remain stable [1][2] - Global MDI demand growth is lower than expected but still positive. Recent domestic prices for polymer MDI are around 14,500-14,600 RMB/ton, while pure MDI has decreased to approximately 19,500 RMB/ton [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Dynamics**: The MDI industry has seen significant changes in 2025, with slow recovery in domestic and overseas demand. The expected global demand growth was initially set at 3-4%, with domestic expectations at 5-6%, but actual growth has fallen short [2][5] - **Regional Price Comparison**: Recent price adjustments in Asia were lower than anticipated, with a recent increase of $100 instead of the expected $200. Current prices in Europe and domestically are close, while the US market remains stable due to anti-dumping policies and stable demand [2][3] - **Production Rates**: Domestic MDI operating rates have dropped to around 70%, with planned maintenance by companies like Wanhua Ningbo and BASF Chongqing having limited supply impact. European operating rates are also around 70%, while US production has returned to normal levels [4][6] - **Demand Drivers**: Domestic demand for MDI is positively influenced by growth in refrigerator and freezer production, automotive production, and cold storage capacity. The demand for formaldehyde-free board materials is increasing, and wind turbine blade demand is also growing [5][7] Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Levels**: MDI inventory is distributed among factories, traders, and end customers. Factory inventories are normal, while traders are keen to stock up, and downstream customers are maintaining low inventory levels due to seasonal price fluctuations [11] - **Future Demand Outlook**: The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with reduced tariff impacts and recovery in the refrigerator and freezer supply chain. The automotive sector is expected to maintain high growth, although slightly lower than in 2025. Exports may rebound, particularly from Europe, Africa, and India, compensating for weakness in the US market [9][10] - **Cost Structures**: Domestic production costs vary, with Wanhua using a coal chemical route at a lower cost compared to others using natural gas. European production costs are higher due to stable natural gas prices, while US production costs remain the lowest globally [13][15] Conclusion - The MDI market is navigating through a complex landscape of supply-demand dynamics, pricing pressures, and regional variations. The outlook for 2026 appears positive, with several growth drivers in place, although challenges remain in the form of geopolitical tensions and market fluctuations.

2025 年 12 月 09 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 209 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 辛醇、硫酸价格上涨，关注反内卷和铬盐--行业周报 业绩稳定增长，后续管线丰富--华东医药/化学制药(000963/213701) 公司点评 超长债企稳了吗？--债券研究周报 隆培素上市在即，期待 TransCon 技术长效生长激素商业化空间--行业周报 固收买卖方怎么看待当前债市点位的配置价值？--债券研究周报 去产能迎来加速阶段，布局生猪底部--行业周报 节奏为先，革新求变——2026 年可转债年度策略--策略 PPT 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、辛醇、硫酸价格上涨，关注反内卷和铬盐--行业周报 分析师：李永磊 S0350521080004 分析师：董伯骏 S0350521080009 联系人：于畅 S0350124080008 2025 年 12 月 4 日，国海化工景气指数为 91.81，较 11 月 27 日上升 0.45。 投资建议： 日本首相高市早苗近期 ...

万华化学：公司为全球MDI行业的龙头，国内及亚太地区最大的MDI制造企业，拥有380万吨MDI产 能；公司此前宣布将从12月1日起，上调在东南亚及南亚地区的聚合MDI与纯MDI产品价格，调涨幅度 为200美元/吨。 据生意社12月3日消息，匈牙利宝思德公司宣布1日起对所有MDI产品涨价，涨幅均为300欧元/吨（约 2400人民币）。 消息面上，据慧正资讯，亨斯迈位于荷兰罗曾堡的28万吨/年MDI装置于11月21日前后意外停车检修， 预计停产将持续至少一个月，其另一套16万吨/年装置也同步降至低负荷运行。此外，近期MDI行业进 入密集检修期，在供应收缩预期推动下，国际巨头巴斯夫、万华化学相继提价。 东方证券表示，从下半年的MDI行情来看，纯MDI由于供需更集中于国内，且保质期短难以库存，在下 游氨纶等需求并不旺盛的情况下，价格已经回到去年年末的高点。虽然当下并不是MDI需求的旺季，但 供给端的意外收缩，有望催动MDI价格反弹。而且MDI供给格局与需求情况更好于TDI，不排除本次事 件成为行业中长期拐点的可能。 公司方面，据上市公司互动平台表示， 氯碱化工：公司参股30%上海亨斯迈聚氨酯和15%上海联恒:上海亨斯 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a shift in supply chain dynamics due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in semiconductor materials, leading to accelerated domestic replacements [5][6] - The chromium salt industry is experiencing a value reassessment driven by increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with significant price increases noted [8][9] - The report highlights a potential upturn in the chemical industry as supply-side constraints and rising demand could enhance profitability and dividend yields for leading companies [6][10] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a 24.0% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 16.9% [3] Key Opportunities - Focus on low-cost expansion opportunities in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as sectors like tire manufacturing and pesticide formulations [6][9] - Emphasis on sectors with improving market conditions, including chromium salts, phosphate rock, and polyester filament [9][10] Price Trends - Recent price increases for key products include chromium oxide green at 35,500 CNY/ton and metallic chromium at 84,000 CNY/ton, both up by 1,000 CNY/ton from the previous week [8][16] - The report notes a tightening supply for isooctanol, with prices rising due to increased demand and production disruptions [13] Company Focus - The report identifies several key companies for investment, including Dongfang Shenghong, Hubei Yihua, and Wanhua Chemical, with positive earnings forecasts and attractive price-to-earnings ratios [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, and Daotong Technology [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfur, sulfuric acid, and lithium battery electrolyte, suggesting a focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a weak overall performance, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the glyphosate industry to enter a recovery phase, recommending companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It suggests focusing on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [22]. - The report also notes the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the chemical sector, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies benefiting from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [20][22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report suggests monitoring the glyphosate industry for potential recovery, with a focus on companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It highlights the importance of selecting stocks with good competitive dynamics and profitability, particularly in the lubricant additive and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - Significant price increases were noted for sulfur (10.77%), lithium battery electrolyte (10.53%), and sulfuric acid (9.09%) [19]. - Conversely, products like R22 saw a drastic price drop of 60.49%, indicating volatility in the market [19]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the influence of geopolitical events, such as US sanctions on Russia, on international oil prices, which are expected to remain around $65 per barrel [20][24]. - It also mentions the mixed performance of the chemical industry due to varying demand across different sectors, with some areas like lubricants performing better than others [22].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [74]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in prices for Vitamin A (VA) and Vitamin E (VE), with VA priced at 62.6 yuan/kg and VE at 49.5 yuan/kg, reflecting increases of 0.9 yuan/kg and 6.0 yuan/kg respectively [10][59][63]. - The polyurethane sector shows varied price movements, with pure MDI averaging 18,414 yuan/ton (+214 yuan/ton), polymer MDI at 14,293 yuan/ton (+7 yuan/ton), and TDI at 13,341 yuan/ton (-108 yuan/ton) [2][16]. - In the oil, coal, and gas olefin sector, ethane and propane prices are reported at 1,296 yuan/ton (-68 yuan/ton) and 3,934 yuan/ton (+157 yuan/ton) respectively, while the average price of polypropylene is 6,600 yuan/ton (-80 yuan/ton) [2][24]. - The coal chemical sector shows mixed results, with synthetic ammonia at 2,151 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton) and urea at 1,615 yuan/ton (+19 yuan/ton) [2][40]. - Key listed companies in the chemical sector include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, New Chemical, and Andisu [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Polyurethane Sector - Average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 18,414 yuan/ton, 14,293 yuan/ton, and 13,341 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding gross profits of 5,400 yuan/ton, 2,279 yuan/ton, and 1,918 yuan/ton [2][16]. 2. Oil, Coal, and Gas Olefin Sector - Ethane and propane average prices are 1,296 yuan/ton and 3,934 yuan/ton, with theoretical profits for polyethylene production from ethane at 947 yuan/ton [2][24][33]. 3. Coal Chemical Sector - Average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,151 yuan/ton, 1,615 yuan/ton, 3,943 yuan/ton, and 2,330 yuan/ton respectively, with gross profits of 121 yuan/ton, -69 yuan/ton, -151 yuan/ton, and 80 yuan/ton [2][40][44]. 4. Animal Nutrition Sector - VA and VE prices are reported at 62.6 yuan/kg and 49.5 yuan/kg, with recent increases noted [10][59][63].

证券代码：605589 证券简称：圣泉集团 公告编号：2025-086 济南圣泉集团股份有限公司 关于公司 2025 年前三季度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 济南圣泉集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券 交易所《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披 露：第十三号——化工》的要求，现将公司 2025 年前三季度主要经 营数据披露如下： 二、主要产品和原材料的价格变动情况 （一）2025 前三季度公司主要产品价格变动情况 | 主要产品 | 2025 年前三季度 | | 2024 年前三季度 | | 变动比例（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 平均售价（元/吨） | | 平均售价（元/吨） | | | | 合成树脂类 | | 6,958.45 | | 7,573.81 | -8.12 | 主要产品 产量（吨） 销量（吨） 营业收入（万元） 合成树脂类 585,520.23 588,666.24 409,62 ...