内容概况：随着下游行业家电、汽车、建筑节能等领域的复苏，国内聚合MDI市场需求呈现强劲增长态 势。2025年上半年，中国聚合MDI产量为192.67万吨，同比增长13.96%；聚合MDI消费量为169.06万 吨，同比增长43.38%。从下游细分领域来看，家电行业更新换代需求释放、 新能源 汽车产销量攀升以 及 绿色建筑 标准提升带来的保温材料升级，共同构成了需求端的核心 驱动力 。 相关上市企业： 万华化学 （600309） 相关企业： 中国石化 集团南京化学工业有限公司、山东 华鲁恒升 化工股份有限公司、 中国石油 化工 股份有限公司、 云天化 集团有限责任公司、滨化集团股份有限公司、上海汽车集团股份有限公司、中 国第一汽车集团有限公司、 北新建材 集团有限公司、 东方雨虹 防水技术股份有限公司、 海尔智家 股 份有限公司、 美的集团 股份有限公司、珠海 格力电器 股份有限公司 关键词：聚合MDI、聚合MDI市场规模、聚合MDI行业现状、聚合MDI发展趋势 一、行业概述 聚合MDI（Polymeric MDI），全称为聚合二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯（Polymeric Diphenylmethane Diiso ...

证券研究报告 基础化工周报：受出口端影响，尿素价格波动运行 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年8月24日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业均价为17950/15580/15489元/吨，环比分别+10/-210/-515元/吨， 纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业毛利分别为4577/3241/4619元/吨，环比分别+5/-238/+121元/吨。 ◼ 【油煤气烯烃板块】①本周乙烷/丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1118/4076/495/4123元/吨，环比分别 +16/+111/+0/+62元/吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为7811元/吨，环比+34元/吨，乙烷裂解/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚乙烯理 论利润分别为1349/1932/58元/吨，环比分别+4/+19/-43元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为6990元/吨，环比-10元/吨 ...

买入（维持） [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 万华化学(600309.SH) 2025 年 08 月 22 日 所属行业：基础化工/化学制品 当前价格(元)：65.60 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 46% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 万华化学 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 9.85 | 23.33 | 17.01 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 4.19 | 11.86 | 7.01 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 证券分析师 | [Table_Base] 股票数据 | | [Table_Finance] 主要财务数据及预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

证券代码：605589 证券简称：圣泉集团 公告编号：2025-064 济南圣泉集团股份有限公司 | 主要产品 | 2025 年半年度平 | | 2024 年半年度平 | | 变动比例（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 均售价（元/吨） | | 均售价（元/吨） | | | | 合成树脂类 | | 7,172.62 | | 7,506.15 | -4.44 | 主要产品 产量（吨） 销量（吨） 营业收入（万元） 合成树脂类 400,506.66 391,772.98 281,003.75 先进电子材料及 电池材料 40,510.66 40,142.01 84,553.31 生物质产品 142,261.30 134,080.92 51,573.94 一、 主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 | 主要原料 | 2025 | 年半年度平均采购 单价（元/吨） | 2024 年半年度平均采购 单价（元/吨） | 变动比例 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯酚 | | 6,443.04 | 6,786.59 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of 19.1%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.8 percentage points [6][17]. - New carbon footprint accounting standards for aviation fuel are expected to enhance the market's operational standards and promote the growth of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) [29][30]. - SAF and Used Cooking Oil (UCO) prices are on the rise, indicating a potential phase of simultaneous volume and price increases [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the basic chemical sector is entering a new long-term growth cycle, driven by policy support and improving supply-demand dynamics [14]. - Key investment themes include focusing on core assets, supply constraints, and sectors with upward demand certainty [15][16]. 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 2.5% during the week of August 8-15, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.8 percentage points [17]. - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 19.1%, indicating strong performance relative to broader market indices [17]. 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 235 stocks rose while 181 fell during the week [24]. - The top-performing stocks included Yangfan New Materials (+23.0%) and Kaimete Gas (+22.5%) [25]. 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report discusses the release of new carbon footprint accounting standards for aviation fuel, which will take effect on September 1, 2025 [28]. - Several companies reported their financial results, with notable increases in revenue and profit for some, such as Longqing Co. and Chuanjin No. [31][34]. 5. Product Price and Price Spread Analysis - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) recorded a decrease of 0.7% week-on-week, indicating a slight decline in chemical product prices [36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5][20]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with TDI price increases anticipated to drive profit recovery [1][10]. - Wanhua Chemical's TDI production capacity is expected to reach 144,000 tons per year by May 2025, enhancing its competitive edge in the polyurethane market [10][12]. - The company is focusing on innovation and expanding its product lines, which is expected to create new profit growth points [11][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 175,361 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 245,163 million yuan, with a growth rate of 7.5% [1][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 16,816 million yuan in 2023, declining to 13,033 million yuan in 2024, but recovering to 20,340 million yuan by 2027 [1][12]. - The company's EPS is expected to be 5.36 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 4.15 yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 6.48 yuan by 2027 [1][12]. Product Performance - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from the polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals segments was 368.88 billion yuan, 349.34 billion yuan, and 156.28 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of 4.04%, -11.73%, and 20.41% [2][4]. - The average market price for TDI in the first half of 2025 was around 12,400 yuan per ton, reflecting an 18.42% year-on-year decline [2][10]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the polyurethane segment was 25.68%, while the petrochemical segment experienced a negative gross margin of -0.37% [2][4]. - The average price of raw materials such as pure benzene decreased by 21.53% year-on-year, impacting overall cost structures [3][9]. Capacity and Production - In the first half of 2025, the production of polyurethane products was 2.98 million tons, an increase of 5.30% year-on-year, while sales rose by 12.64% to 3.03 million tons [4][9]. - The company successfully launched new production lines, including MS devices and specialty amines, which are expected to enhance its product offerings [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the price increases of lithium carbonate and photoinitiators, suggesting a potential recovery in the chemical industry driven by anti-involution trends [1] - The basic chemical sector has shown strong relative performance, with a 39.4% increase over the past 12 months compared to the 25.7% increase in the CSI 300 index [3] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The report notes a decline in the Guohai Chemical Prosperity Index to 92.75 as of August 14, 2025, down 0.11 from August 7, 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - Key opportunities identified include: 1. Low-cost expansion in companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, and others [5] 2. Improvement in industry prosperity for chromium salts, phosphate rock, and various chemical sectors [6] 3. Focus on new materials with high growth potential and low domestic substitution rates [7] 4. High dividend opportunities in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and Sinopec [8] Price Analysis of Key Products - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased by 9.93% to 83,000 CNY/ton [10] - Photoinitiator (TPO) price rose by 5.56% to 95 CNY/kg [10] - Polyester filament price increased by 2.16% to 7,100 CNY/ton [10] Company Performance Tracking - Notable companies such as Zhenhua Co. reported a 10.17% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 [13] - Wanhua Chemical's pure MDI price was reported at 17,900 CNY/ton, with a slight increase [11] Market Observations - The report indicates a potential inventory replenishment cycle in the chemical sector due to anticipated fiscal policy support in China and the US [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polyurethane sector, this week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,940 yuan/ton, 15,790 yuan/ton, and 16,004 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +100 yuan/ton, - 130 yuan/ton, and - 392 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 4,572 yuan/ton, 3,479 yuan/ton, and 4,497 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of +152 yuan/ton, +2 yuan/ton, and - 358 yuan/ton [2]. - In the oil, gas, and olefin sector: ① This week, the average prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha were 1,102 yuan/ton, 3,966 yuan/ton, 495 yuan/ton, and 4,059 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 28 yuan/ton, +68 yuan/ton, +0 yuan/ton, and - 69 yuan/ton. ② The average price of polyethylene was 7,777 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of ethylene cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,343 yuan/ton, 1,911 yuan/ton, and 102 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +25 yuan/ton, - 3 yuan/ton, and +66 yuan/ton. ③ The average price of polypropylene was 7,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were 53 yuan/ton, 1,596 yuan/ton, and - 32 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 60 yuan/ton, +0 yuan/ton, and +69 yuan/ton [2]. - In the coal chemical sector, this week, the average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,289 yuan/ton, 1,750 yuan/ton, 4,095 yuan/ton, and 2,205 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 134 yuan/ton, - 23 yuan/ton, +70 yuan/ton, and - 7 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 359 yuan/ton, 67 yuan/ton, - 190 yuan/ton, and - 91 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 149 yuan/ton, - 32 yuan/ton, +82 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Relevant listed companies in the chemical industry include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and New Hope Liuhe [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Price Change Tracking**: As of August 15, 2025, the basic chemical index had a weekly increase of 2.5%, a monthly increase of 8.7%, a three - month increase of 13.0%, a one - year increase of 39.9%, and a year - to - date increase of 19.1%. Among the related companies, Wanhua Chemical had a weekly increase of 3.6%, a monthly increase of 14.0%, a three - month increase of 9.5%, a one - year decrease of 9.2%, and a year - to - date decrease of 10.5%. Baofeng Energy had a weekly increase of 0.3%, a monthly decrease of 2.0%, a three - month decrease of 0.6%, a one - year increase of 5.7%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.3%. Satellite Chemical had a weekly decrease of 0.4%, a monthly increase of 8.5%, a three - month increase of 4.9%, a one - year increase of 23.2%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.9%. Hualu Hengsheng had a weekly increase of 2.7%, a monthly increase of 14.2%, a three - month increase of 17.8%, a one - year increase of 14.1%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.8%. New Hope Liuhe had a weekly increase of 0.7%, a monthly increase of 4.9%, a three - month increase of 2.9%, a one - year increase of 19.5%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.2% [8]. - **Related Company Profit Tracking**: As of August 15, 2025, for Wanhua Chemical, with a stock price of 63 yuan and a total market value of 197.2 billion yuan, the归母 net profits for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 13.033 billion yuan, 13.676 billion yuan, 16.777 billion yuan, and 19.539 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PEs of 15.1, 14.4, 11.8, and 10.1, and a PB of 2.0 in 2025E. Similar data are provided for other companies such as Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and New Hope Liuhe [8]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain**: This week, the average price of pure MDI was 17,940 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a seven - year quantile of 21%, and a gross profit of 4,572 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 152 yuan/ton, with a seven - year quantile of 60%. Similar data are presented for polymer MDI and TDI [8]. - **Oil, Gas, and Olefin Industry Chain**: - **Raw Material Prices**: This week, the average price of ethane was 21 cents/gallon (1,102 yuan/ton), a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 cents/gallon (28 yuan/ton), with a ten - year quantile of 31% (39%). Similar data are provided for propane, NYMEX natural gas, Brent crude oil, naphtha, steam coal, and methanol [8]. - **Profit Comparison of Different Routes**: For ethylene cracking to produce polyethylene, the profit was 1,343 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 346 yuan/ton year - on - year. Similar profit data are presented for other routes such as naphtha cracking and CTO [8]. - **C2 and C3 Segments and Coal Chemical Industry Chain**: Detailed price, price change, quantile, and profit data are provided for various products in the C2 segment (e.g., ethylene, HDPE), C3 segment (e.g., propylene, polypropylene), and coal chemical industry chain (e.g., coking coal, coke, traditional coal chemical products, and new materials) [10]. 3.2 Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **Basic Chemical Index Trend**: No specific content provided in the given text other than the mention of the topic [12]. - **Polyurethane Sector**: The report presents the price trends of pure benzene, pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI, as well as the price and profit data of polymer MDI, TDI, and pure MDI [17][18][21]. - **Oil, Gas, and Olefin Sector**: It includes the price trends of MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic steam coal, naphtha, and crude oil, as well as the profit data of different production routes such as ethane cracking to produce polyethylene, PDH to produce polypropylene, coal - based production of PE and PP, and naphtha - based production of PE and PP [25][26][34]. - **Coal Chemical Sector**: The report shows the price trends of domestic coking coal, coke, acetic acid, DMF, synthetic ammonia, urea, octanol, caprolactam, adipic acid, and PA6, as well as their corresponding profit data [42][49][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The chemical sector is experiencing a recovery in both prices and demand, benefiting leading companies with significant scale advantages and cost efficiencies [8] - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitiveness, with scarce growth targets worth attention [3] - The consumption electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies likely to benefit [4] - The phosphorous chemical sector is tightening due to environmental policies and increasing demand from the new energy sector [5] - The vitamin market is facing supply disruptions, particularly for Vitamin A and E, due to BASF's force majeure [8] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the ChiNext Index increased by 8.58%, and the CSI 300 Index went up by 2.37% [14] - The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 3.16%, while the Shenwan Chemical Index rose by 2.46% [15] Key Industry Dynamics - Covestro has cut its TDI supply to the Chinese market by 15%, exacerbating supply tightness [3] - Hengli Petrochemical's subsidiaries are merging to optimize management and improve operational efficiency [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [3] - **Consumer Electronics**: Recovery in demand is anticipated, with a focus on upstream material companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik [4] - **Phosphorous Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental regulations and rising demand from new energy sectors suggest a tightening market [5] - **Fluorine Chemicals**: The reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants supports stable profitability [5] - **Textile Sector**: Polyester filament inventory depletion is expected to benefit companies like Tongkun and New Fengming [5] Sub-industry Performance - The polyurethane sector is seeing stable prices for pure MDI and a slight decline for polymer MDI [27][32] - The tire industry shows a mixed performance with full steel tire production increasing while semi-steel tire production is declining [47][50] - The pesticide market is experiencing price fluctuations, with glyphosate prices rising slightly [52] Price Trends - The average price of urea is reported at 1762.6 RMB/ton, showing a decrease of 1.74% [60] - The price of phosphoric acid remains stable, with diammonium phosphate at 3999.38 RMB/ton [64] - The price of vitamins A and E remains unchanged at 64 RMB/kg and 67.5 RMB/kg respectively [76][77]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has revised and issued the "Energy Saving Review and Carbon Emission Evaluation Measures for Fixed Asset Investment Projects," which will take effect on September 1, 2025. The new measures incorporate carbon emission evaluations and coal consumption management into the energy-saving review system, establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism for review authority, and improve management regulations for energy-saving reviews during and after the process [1][3]. Industry News Summary - The revised measures will replace the original "Energy Saving Review Measures for Fixed Asset Investment Projects" [1][3]. - The new regulations focus on three main areas: inclusion of carbon emission evaluations and coal consumption management, establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for review authority, and enhancement of management regulations for energy-saving reviews [1][3]. Product Price Tracking - WTI oil price decreased by 5.1%, reaching $63.88 per barrel [4]. - Key chemical products saw varied price movements: - MDI prices increased by 2.5%, while pure MDI rose by 1.7% - Prices for liquid methionine, PVC (electrolytic method), light soda ash, titanium dioxide, acetic acid, solid methionine, vitamin E, rubber, TDI, ethylene glycol, PVC (ethylene method), and caustic soda all decreased by percentages ranging from 0.2% to 4.5% [4]. - The top five chemical products with price increases included liquid nitrogen (+10%), liquid oxygen (+9.1%), oxalic acid (+6.2%), urea (+4.5%), and thermal coal (+4.5%) [4]. Chemical Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector rose by 2.44% compared to the previous week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 1.23% [7]. - The basic chemical sector ranked 11th among all sectors in terms of weekly growth [7]. - Notable sub-sectors with significant weekly gains included other rubber products (+10.06%), modified plastics (+8.55%), adhesives and tapes (+7.77%), other plastic products (+6.6%), and nylon (+6.34%) [7]. Focused Sub-sector Insights - The industry is observing a potential bottoming out of the cycle, with a focus on marginal changes in supply and demand [8]. - Recommendations include: - Stable demand with global supply dominance in sectors like sucralose and pesticides [8]. - Domestic demand driving sectors such as refrigerants and fertilizers [8]. - Attention to sectors with potential capacity recovery, including organic silicon and spandex [8]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors with supply replacement gaps, including OLED materials and synthetic biology [9]. - Key recommendations include companies like Lite-On Technology, Aolai Technology, and others in the OLED materials space [9].