MDI 专家电话会 20260226 摘要 全球 MDI 产能扩张主要集中在万华福建和巴斯夫美国，预计 2026 年投 产，届时全球总产能或达 1,200 万吨。至 2030 年，预计产能约为 1,260 万吨，年均复合增长率约 1.2%。行业供需矛盾有望缓解，消费 增速或高于产能增速。 2025 年全球 MDI 消费量预计增长 4.6%至 895 万吨，亚太地区增速领 先。中国市场消费增长约 7%，主要由国内需求驱动，但产量同比下降 3%-4%，开工率随之下降，进出口贸易结构变化显著。 聚合 MDI 下游中，汽车行业消费增速超 10%，受益于新能源汽车渗透 率提升。冷库板、冷藏集装箱等新兴应用亦有增长，但建筑保温相关需 求受房地产周期影响而减少，部分需求转移至冷库板。 2025 年聚合 MDI 与纯 MDI 年均价均下跌。预计 2026 年聚合 MDI 价 格维持低位，纯 MDI 价格中枢或抬升。国内厂家策略或转向维护市场份 额，下游成本压力缓解，利于新兴应用推广。 关税政策影响中国 MDI 及下游产品出口，尤其对美出口。美国关税政策 缓和或利于家电出口修复。冰箱冷柜、汽车等行业出现向东南亚产业转 移趋势， ...

2026 年 03 月 01 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李振方 S0350524080003 | | | lizf@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 关注油价上涨，关注化工旺季到来—看好全球化 工反内卷大周期+AI 需求大周期 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 2026 年 2 月 26 日，国海化工景气指数为 94.19，较 2026 年 2 月 19 日上升 0.22。 投资建议： 从全球范围看，中国化工优势企业的成本和效率优势已经非常稳固，龙 头企业已经进入了业绩长周期向上的阶段。同时，对于部分供给端受限 的行业，随着需求的回升，这部分行业的景气度有望持续提升，值得重 点关注。碳排放管控下的反内卷有望重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望 使全球以及中国化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓，并对部 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13]. Core Insights - The global chemical industry is experiencing a clear trend of "East rising, West falling," with Europe facing challenges from high energy costs, carbon constraints, and industrial relocation, while China has firmly established itself as the leader in global chemical capacity [3][10]. - From 2004 to 2024, global chemical sales are projected to grow from €1.4 trillion to €5.0 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6%, significantly outpacing the global GDP growth rate of 1.9% [7][18]. - China's share of global chemical sales is expected to increase from 10% in 2004 to 46% in 2024, while the shares of the EU, the US, Japan, South Korea, and India will be 13%, 12%, 3%, 3%, and 3%, respectively [7][18]. Summary by Sections Global Chemical Overview - China leads the global chemical industry, with capital expenditures expected to reach €127 billion in 2024, accounting for 46.6% of the global total [7][20]. - Research and development (R&D) investment in China's chemical sector is projected to reach €18 billion in 2024, representing 31.0% of the global total [25][20]. Chemical Cycle and Market Dynamics - The global chemical industry is at a historical low in capital return rates and profit margins, with many companies implementing cost-cutting and restructuring measures in anticipation of a new economic upturn [8][30]. - The shift towards specialty chemicals is noted, as these products typically have lower commoditization and higher added value, allowing companies to avoid intense competition in the commodity chemicals market [30]. Cost Disparities and EU Capacity Exit - The EU chemical industry is projected to have sales of €635 billion in 2024, but its global market share has been declining for nearly 20 years due to high energy costs and regulatory pressures [9][43]. - The EU is expected to close approximately 37 million tons of chemical capacity from 2022 to 2025, representing 9% of its total capacity, with the petrochemical sector facing the highest closure rates [9][74]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading Chinese chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the shifting dynamics of the global chemical industry [10][83].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for the global chemical industry driven by the new demand cycle from anti-involution and AI, with a focus on the upcoming peak season in the chemical sector leading to price increases [1][2] - Chinese chemical companies are expected to benefit from solid cost and efficiency advantages, entering a long-term upward performance cycle [2] - The report emphasizes the potential for increased dividend yields as supply-side constraints and demand recovery enhance industry profitability [2] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on sectors with supply constraints and recovering demand, which are likely to see sustained improvements in industry conditions [2] - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Coal Chemical: Hualu Chemical, Luxi Chemical, Baofeng Energy 2. Oil Refining: Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC 3. Polyurethane: Wanhua Chemical, Huafeng Chemical 4. Phosphate Fertilizer: Yuntianhua, Yuntu Holdings, Xinyangfeng, Batian Shares 5. Pesticides: Yangnong Chemical, Lier Chemical, Xingfa Group, Limin Shares, Jiangshan Shares, Xin'an Shares, Runfeng Shares 6. Potash Fertilizer: Salt Lake Shares, Yara International, Oriental Iron Tower [2] Supply Drivers - The report notes that domestic anti-involution measures and the exit of European production capacity are expected to support the chemical industry's recovery [3] Demand Drivers - The report identifies several demand-driven opportunities, including: 1. Gas turbines and SOFC upstream: Zhenhua Shares, Yingliu Shares, Longda Shares, Wanze Shares, Sanhuan Group 2. Refrigerants and fluorinated liquids: Juhua Shares, New Zhoubang, Runhe Materials 3. Energy storage industry chain: Chuanheng Shares, Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, Batian Shares, Yuntu Holdings 4. Robotics materials industry chain: PEEK - Kingfa Technology, Zhongyan Shares, Guoen Shares, Huitong Shares 5. Semiconductor materials industry chain: Photoresists: Yanggu Huatai, Wanhua Shares, Dinglong Shares, Tongcheng New Materials, Jingrui Electric Materials, Jiuri New Materials, Yake Technology [7][10] Recent Performance - The chemical industry has shown strong relative performance, with a 1-month increase of 5.7%, a 3-month increase of 15.4%, and a 12-month increase of 47.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [5] Key Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for many, with several companies rated as "Buy" [29]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The basic chemical sector has experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27%, the ChiNext Index down 3.28%, and the CSI 300 down 1.33% during the week [2][14] - Key developments include the H-share listing of Guoen Co., Ltd. and a 20% capacity expansion of TDI at Covestro's Shanghai base [4][5] Industry Performance Overview - The chemical sector's performance this week shows the top five sub-industries with gains: Tires (1.69%), Coatings and Inks (0.13%), Other Chemical Products III (0%), Food and Feed Additives (-0.14%), and Synthetic Resins (-0.25%) [3][17] - The bottom five sub-industries with losses include Viscose (-5.79%), Titanium Dioxide (-4.24%), Pesticides (-4.03%), Phosphate Fertilizers and Phosphate Chemicals (-3.91%), and Membrane Materials (-3.79%) [3][17] Key Industry Dynamics - Guoen Co., Ltd. has officially listed its H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a new chapter in its capital market strategy [4] - Covestro has completed a major capacity expansion for TDI production at its Shanghai facility, increasing annual capacity from 310,000 tons to 370,000 tons, a nearly 20% increase [4] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: The domestic tire sector shows strong competitiveness, with notable companies such as Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire worth monitoring [5] - Investment Theme 2: The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies likely to benefit. Key companies include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Lite-On Optoelectronics, and Ruile New Materials [5] - Investment Theme 3: Focus on resilient cyclical industries and inventory destocking leading to a potential bottom reversal, particularly in phosphate and fluorochemical sectors [5] - Investment Theme 4: As the economy improves and demand recovers, leading companies in the chemical sector are expected to benefit significantly [5]

1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the basic chemical industry's weekly data, covering price and profit changes in multiple sectors such as polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, coal - chemical, and animal nutrition, and also tracks the stock price performance and profitability of related listed companies [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking**: - **Stock Price Changes**: The basic chemical index decreased by 2.1% in the past week, increased by 9.0% in the past month, 17.6% in the past three months, 48.7% in the past year, and 10.4% since the beginning of 2026. Among the related listed companies, New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. (002001.SZ) had a 6.8% increase in the past week, while other companies such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (600309.SH) and Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd. (600989.SH) had varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Profitability**: The report provides the total market value, stock price, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of related listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [8]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - **Polyurethane Industry Chain**: This week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,500 yuan/ton, 13,900 yuan/ton, and 14,377 yuan/ton respectively. The corresponding weekly changes were - 43 yuan/ton, + 36 yuan/ton, and + 292 yuan/ton, and the gross margins were 4,097 yuan/ton, 1,497 yuan/ton, and 2,345 yuan/ton respectively [2][8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain**: The average prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha were 1,277 yuan/ton, 4,399 yuan/ton, 520 yuan/ton, and 4,137 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of - 139 yuan/ton, + 51 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and + 63 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of polyethylene production through different processes and polypropylene production through different processes also had corresponding changes [2][8]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain**: The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,119 yuan/ton, 1,758 yuan/ton, 4,004 yuan/ton, and 2,511 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of - 65 yuan/ton, + 13 yuan/ton, + 41 yuan/ton, and - 69 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross margins also changed [2]. - **Animal Nutrition Industry Chain**: The average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine were 61.4 yuan/kg, 55.9 yuan/kg, 18.2 yuan/kg, and 14.3 yuan/kg respectively, with weekly changes of - 0.1 yuan/kg, + 0.9 yuan/kg, + 0.3 yuan/kg, and + 0.1 yuan/kg [2][9]. 3.2 Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **Basic Chemical Index Trend**: The report does not elaborate on the basic chemical index trend but focuses on the performance data of the index and related companies [8]. - **Polyurethane Plate**: Analyzes the price trends and price - spread situations of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI in China [16][19]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Plate**: Discusses the price trends of raw materials such as ethane, propane, natural gas, and crude oil, as well as the profitability of different processes for producing polyethylene and polypropylene [23][31][38]. - **Coal - Chemical Plate**: Covers the price and gross margin trends of coal - coking products and traditional coal - chemical products, as well as some new materials [40][45][52]. - **Animal Nutrition Plate**: Analyzes the price trends of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine [57][59][63].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The basic chemical industry index closed at 4943.97 points, up 0.65% from the previous week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.01% [5][17] - In the sub-sectors, 13 out of 25 reported gains, with textile chemical products, other chemical raw materials, compound fertilizers, coal chemicals, and phosphate fertilizers leading with weekly increases of 13.89%, 6.58%, 4.94%, 4.72%, and 4.56% respectively [18] - The dye market is experiencing price increases, with disperse dye prices rising from 18,000 CNY/ton to 19,000 CNY/ton within a week, driven by a surge in the prices of upstream key intermediates [6] - The viscose fiber industry shows a strong basis for price increases due to high operating rates and low inventory levels, with total industry inventory at 100,000 tons, down 24.53% week-on-week [7][8] - The PVC industry is progressing towards mercury-free production, which is expected to improve the supply-demand balance as outdated capacities are phased out [8] Summary by Sections Weekly Chemical Sector Review - The basic chemical industry index rose to 4943.97 points, outperforming the CSI 300 index [17] - 90% of the 462 stocks in the chemical sector saw weekly gains, with the top gainers including Jiangtian Chemical and Runbei Hangke [21] Key Chemical Subsector Tracking - **Polyester Filament**: Prices increased slightly, with POY averaging 6,870 CNY/ton, up 160 CNY/ton from last week [27] - **Tires**: The full steel tire industry operating rate is at 62.47%, showing a slight decrease, while half steel tire rates increased to 74.32% [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, suggesting to focus on leading companies and those experiencing price increases from the bottom [2][3] Core Insights - The chemical market experienced fluctuations, with the Shenwan Chemical Index declining by 0.86%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.94%. However, price increases were noted in various products, including dyes and para-nitrochlorobenzene, driven by the cancellation of export tax rebates, which accelerated export activities [2] - The AI industry shows strong demand, positively impacting the entire supply chain. Notable performances include ASML's Q4 results, which exceeded expectations, and SK Hynix's Q4 operating profit doubling year-on-year, marking the strongest performance in history [2] - The real estate sector is stabilizing as the "three red lines" policy ends, indicating a healthier market moving forward [2][3] Summary by Sections Chemical Market Overview - The chemical market saw a mixed performance, with the Shenwan Chemical Index down 0.86% while the CSI 300 Index rose 0.08%. The textile chemical products sector led gains with a 14.33% increase [11][12] - Key price movements included a rise in disperse dyes to an average of 19 CNY/kg and reactive dyes to 23 CNY/kg, reflecting a 5.56% and 4.55% increase respectively [3][29] AI Industry Developments - The AI sector is witnessing robust growth, with major players like ByteDance and Alibaba planning to launch new AI models around the Spring Festival, and significant investments in AI and cloud computing expected to rise from 380 billion CNY to 480 billion CNY over the next three years [2][4] Real Estate Sector Changes - The end of the "three red lines" policy is expected to lead to a more stable and resilient real estate market, as risks from the previous cycle are gradually cleared [3][4] Price Trends in Key Chemical Products - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with disperse dyes and reactive dyes showing notable upward trends due to rising raw material costs and limited supply [29][30] - The report also notes that the PA66 market is experiencing upward pressure, with prices rising to 14,954 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.48% increase [33][34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong price support from factories, with solid methionine prices rebounding [1]. - The average prices for various chemical products are provided, showing fluctuations in pricing and profitability across different segments [2]. - The report identifies key listed companies in the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and others [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends - The report includes a weekly overview of the basic chemical index trends, indicating overall market movements [10]. 2.2 Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported as 17,543, 13,864, and 14,085 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -171, -36, and +110 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 4,171, 1,493, and 2,363 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -332, -196, and -15 CNY/ton [2]. 2.3 Oil, Coal, and Olefin Sector - Average prices for ethane, propane, thermal coal, and naphtha are reported as 1,416, 4,349, 520, and 4,074 CNY/ton respectively, with increases of +147, +52, +0, and +171 CNY/ton [2]. - The average price for polyethylene is 7,162 CNY/ton, showing a rise of +62 CNY/ton [2]. - The theoretical profits for ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking for polyethylene production are reported as 694, 1,438, and -245 CNY/ton, with respective changes of -161, +41, and -127 CNY/ton [2]. 2.4 Coal Chemical Sector - Average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,184, 1,745, 3,962, and 2,579 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -27, +5, +68, and -21 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 199, 72, -92, and 445 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -21, +1, +10, and -8 CNY/ton [2]. 2.5 Animal Nutrition Sector - Average prices for VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine are reported as 61.5, 55.1, 17.9, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with changes of -0.7, +0.6, +0.3, and +0.0 CNY/kg [2].

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the real estate chain logic and investment opportunities within the real estate sector, highlighting the recent strong performance of real estate-related stocks [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Market Sentiment - The speaker emphasized a positive outlook for the market, predicting a potential rise to 4200 points before the Spring Festival, indicating a strong market sentiment despite regulatory interventions [2][3]. - The speaker noted that while 300 stocks appeared constrained, the majority of stocks performed well, suggesting a broader market strength [2][3]. Real Estate Sector Insights - The real estate sector has seen significant declines, with residential investment as a percentage of GDP dropping to 4.5%, and real estate investment growth decreasing by nearly 60% [6]. - Sales area has fallen by approximately 50% from peak levels, and housing prices have decreased by 30% to 40% [6]. - The speaker highlighted the critical role of stabilizing the real estate market for national economic stability and internal demand growth, especially in the face of external uncertainties [6][7]. Investment Opportunities - The speaker identified three key investment directions: 1. Quality real estate companies with a price-to-book (PB) ratio below one, indicating deep discounts [9]. 2. Companies in the real estate supply chain, particularly in construction materials, chemicals, and appliances, which have seen improved competitive dynamics due to market consolidation [10]. 3. Urban renewal projects that will drive demand for construction materials and related services [10]. Regulatory Environment - The speaker discussed the regulatory environment, suggesting that early interventions by regulators could lead to a more stable market and longer-term growth [4][5]. Additional Insights - The real estate and related sectors currently represent only 8.1% of the total A-share market capitalization, while consumer goods account for 9.4% despite contributing 43% to GDP [8]. - The speaker noted that the current low expectations and stock valuations create a favorable environment for potential recovery in the real estate sector [8]. Transportation Sector Insights - The transportation sector, particularly aviation and oil shipping, is expected to see increased demand during the upcoming Spring Festival, with passenger traffic projected to reach 9.5 billion, a 5% increase from the previous year [12][13]. - The oil shipping market has seen a significant rise in freight rates, with expectations for continued profitability in Q1 2026 [14]. Chemical Sector Insights - The chemical sector is closely tied to the real estate chain, with optimism regarding demand recovery for products like MDI, PVC, and soda ash due to improving internal demand [17][18]. - Key companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Boryung Chemical, are highlighted for their competitive advantages and growth potential [19][21]. Metal Sector Insights - The metal sector remains bullish, with expectations for continued price increases driven by supply disruptions and strong demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy [26][29]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are seen as strategic resources with strong long-term demand prospects [29][30]. Energy Sector Insights - Oil prices are expected to remain stable around $60-$65 per barrel, with limited downside risk due to production cost considerations [34][35]. - The speaker noted that geopolitical factors could temporarily influence prices, but the overall supply-demand balance suggests a bearish outlook for the next 1-2 years [35][36]. Coal Sector Insights - The coal market is experiencing fluctuations due to seasonal demand, with expectations for price pressures in the spring as new projects commence [42][43]. - The speaker indicated that without significant fiscal stimulus, coal prices may face downward pressure in the upcoming quarters [42][43].