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基础化工行业周报:七部门联合发布《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025-2026年)》,涤纶长丝行业去库-20250928
Guohai Securities· 2025-09-28 14:38
2025 年 09 月 28 日 行业研究 评级:推荐(维持) | 研究所: | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师: | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师: | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师: | 仲逸涵 S0350525070003 | | | zhongyh@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 七部门联合发布《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 (2025-2026 年)》,涤纶长丝行业去库 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 《工作方案》提出,2025-2026 年,石化化工行业增加值年均增长 5% 以上,经济效益企稳回升,产业科技创新能力显著增强,精细化延伸、 数字赋能和本质安全水平持续提高,减污降碳协同增效明显,化工园区 由规范建设向高质量发展迈进。聚焦石化化工行业发展面临的新形势、 新挑战,《工作方案》围绕强创新、提效益、拓需求、优载体、促合作 等 5 方面部署 10 项重点任务。一是强化产业科技创新,提升有效供给能 力。 ...
基础化工周报:尿素价格回调-20250921
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-21 05:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the weekly price and profit data of various chemical products, including polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, and coal - chemical sectors, along with the performance of related listed companies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Foundation Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance** - **Stock Price Fluctuations**: From September 19, 2025, the Foundation Chemical Index dropped by 1.3% in the past week, rose by 2.7% in the past month, 17.4% in the past three months, 50.5% in the past year, and 23.4% since the beginning of 2025. Among related companies, Wanhua Chemical fell 3.7% in the past week, Baofeng Energy dropped 3.8%, Satellite Chemical declined 4.1%, Huaxin Chemical rose 0.2%, and New Hope Liuhe fell 3.7% [8]. - **Profit Tracking**: As of September 19, 2025, the total market value of Wanhua Chemical was 204.5 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13 billion yuan in 2024, expected to be 13.5 billion yuan in 2025, 16.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 19 billion yuan in 2027. Similar data is provided for other companies [8]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,600 yuan/ton, 15,071 yuan/ton, and 13,694 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 179 yuan/ton, + 143 yuan/ton, and + 109 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 4,312 yuan/ton, 2,784 yuan/ton, and 2,558 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 221 yuan/ton, + 101 yuan/ton, and - 157 yuan/ton [2][8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain** - **Raw Material Prices**: The average weekly prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha were 1,348 yuan/ton, 4,273 yuan/ton, 503 yuan/ton, and 4,293 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 46 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, 8 yuan/ton, and 35 yuan/ton [2]. - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average price of polyethylene was 7,704 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The theoretical profits of ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,093 yuan/ton, 1,844 yuan/ton, and - 143 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 29 yuan/ton, 22 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 6,800 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were - 335 yuan/ton, 1,442 yuan/ton, and - 369 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 5 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,108 yuan/ton, 1,683 yuan/ton, 3,875 yuan/ton, and 2,344 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 21 yuan/ton, - 24 yuan/ton, - 107 yuan/ton, and + 56 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 152 yuan/ton, - 4 yuan/ton, - 316 yuan/ton, and 80 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 27 yuan/ton, - 16 yuan/ton, - 122 yuan/ton, and + 56 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2. Foundation Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Foundation Chemical Index Trend** No specific content about the index trend is provided, only the topic is mentioned [12]. - **2.2 Polyurethane Sector** The report shows the price trends of pure benzene, pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI, as well as the price and profit data of polymer MDI, TDI, and pure MDI [17][18]. - **2.3 Oil - Gas - Olefin Sector** It presents the price trends of MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic steam coal, and naphtha, along with the profitability of different production processes such as ethane cracking to produce polyethylene, PDH to produce polypropylene, etc. [25][26]. - **2.4 Coal - Chemical Sector** The report shows the price trends and profitability of domestic coking coal, coke, synthetic ammonia, methanol, urea, DMF, acetic acid, and other products [42][46].
基础化工行业周报:反内卷有望重估化工行业,丙烯酸及酯、聚合MDI价格上涨-20250914
Guohai Securities· 2025-09-14 13:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry in China is expected to undergo a revaluation due to anti-involution measures, which may lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion. This shift could enhance the cash flow and dividend yield of Chinese chemical companies, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to profit-generating ones [6][29] - The demand for chromium salts is anticipated to rise significantly due to increased orders for gas turbines and commercial aircraft engines in Europe and the US, leading to a projected shortfall of 250,000 tons by 2028, which is about 23% of the total annual production [6] - The report highlights four key investment opportunities: low-cost expansion, improving industry conditions, new materials, and high dividend yields from state-owned enterprises [7][8] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 51.0% over the past 12 months, compared to 42.5% for the CSI 300 index [4] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for low-cost expansion in major companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, alongside sectors like tires and fertilizers [7] - It also points out the improving conditions in various segments, including chromium salts, phosphate rock, and agricultural chemicals [8] Key Products Analysis - Recent price increases were noted for acrylic acid and esters, with butyl acrylate priced at 7,600 RMB/ton, reflecting a 3.40% increase [10] - The report also mentions the price of polymer MDI in East China at 15,550 RMB/ton, up by 1.97% [10] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for many, with several companies rated as "Buy" [30]
基础化工周报:新材料产品价格有所回落-20250914
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-14 10:21
Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the average prices and gross profits of pure MDI, polymeric MDI, and TDI in the polyurethane sector decreased compared to the previous week [2]. - In the oil, gas, and olefin sector, the average prices of ethane, propane, and naphtha increased slightly, while the average prices of polyethylene and polypropylene decreased. The theoretical profits of various production processes also decreased [2]. - In the coal chemical sector, the average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, and DMF decreased, while the average price of acetic acid increased. The gross profits of these products also showed corresponding changes [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking** - The Basic Chemical Index rose by 2.4% in the past week, 6.1% in the past month, 17.5% in the past three months, 50.4% in the past year, and 25.1% since the beginning of 2025 [8]. - Among the related companies, Wanhua Chemical rose by 2.9% in the past week, Baofeng Energy fell by 0.7%, Satellite Chemical rose by 0.6%, Huaxin Chemical rose by 0.5%, and New Hope Liuhe rose by 4.7% [8]. - The report also provides the total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of these companies [8]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - The average prices of pure MDI, polymeric MDI, and TDI were 17,779 yuan/ton, 14,929 yuan/ton, and 13,585 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week decreases of 71 yuan/ton, 143 yuan/ton, and 702 yuan/ton respectively [2][8]. - The gross profits of pure MDI, polymeric MDI, and TDI were 4,533 yuan/ton, 2,683 yuan/ton, and 2,716 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week decreases of 51 yuan/ton, 122 yuan/ton, and 220 yuan/ton respectively [2][8]. - **Oil, Gas, and Olefin Industry Chain** - The average prices of ethane, propane, and naphtha were 1,302 yuan/ton, 4,259 yuan/ton, and 4,266 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 8 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively [2][8]. - The average price of polyethylene was 7,707 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 61 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,122 yuan/ton, 1,866 yuan/ton, and -125 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week decreases of 57 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 46 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The average price of polypropylene was 6,800 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were -330 yuan/ton, 1,463 yuan/ton, and -352 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week decreases of 37 yuan/ton, 33 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Coal Chemical Industry Chain** - The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,129 yuan/ton, 1,707 yuan/ton, 3,982 yuan/ton, and 2,287 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -10 yuan/ton, -25 yuan/ton, -154 yuan/ton, and +48 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The gross profits of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 179 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, -193 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -9 yuan/ton, -31 yuan/ton, -90 yuan/ton, and +5 yuan/ton respectively [2]. 2. Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **Basic Chemical Index Trend** - There is no specific content about the basic chemical index trend in the provided text. - **Polyurethane Sector** - The average prices and gross profits of pure MDI, polymeric MDI, and TDI decreased this week [2]. - **Oil, Gas, and Olefin Sector** - The prices of raw materials such as ethane, propane, and naphtha changed slightly, while the prices of polyethylene and polypropylene decreased. The profits of various production processes also decreased [2]. - **Coal Chemical Sector** - The prices and gross profits of coal chemical products such as synthetic ammonia, urea, and DMF showed different degrees of change [2].
行业周报:三井TDI装置即将复产,吉林石化百万吨级乙烯装置开车成功-20250907
Huafu Securities· 2025-09-07 13:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, suggesting that leading companies with significant scale and cost advantages will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the TDI production facility by Mitsui and the successful commissioning of a new ethylene plant by Jilin Petrochemical, indicating positive developments in the industry [3][4]. - It emphasizes the strong competitive position of domestic tire manufacturers and suggests that rare growth stocks in this sector are worth attention [4]. - The report notes a potential recovery in consumer electronics, recommending upstream material companies as beneficiaries of this trend [4]. - It identifies several resilient cyclical industries, such as phosphate and fluorine chemicals, which are expected to see improved market conditions due to supply constraints and rising demand [5][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.35%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 0.15%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index decreased by 1.36% [14][17]. - The top-performing sub-industries included organic silicon (3.59%), modified plastics (2.46%), and tires (2.22%), while the worst performers were other plastic products (-4.72%) and compound fertilizers (-3.04%) [17][18]. Industry Dynamics - Mitsui's TDI plant is set to resume production after a chlorine leak incident, with expectations of stable product supply [3]. - Jilin Petrochemical's new ethylene plant has successfully started operations, increasing its total ethylene capacity to 1.9 million tons per year [3]. Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are noted for their strong competitive edge, with recommendations to focus on companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit from increased demand in the panel supply chain [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: Phosphate and fluorine chemical sectors are highlighted for their resilience, with recommendations for companies like Yuntianhua and Juhua [5][8]. - **Leading Companies**: The report suggests that leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [8].
国际油价上涨,聚合MDI、TDI价格下跌 | 投研报告
Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing mixed price movements, with 36 out of 100 tracked chemical products seeing price increases, while 32 products saw price declines, and 32 remained stable during the week of August 18-24 [1][3]. Chemical Industry Summary - In the week of August 18-24, 47% of tracked chemical products had month-on-month average price increases, while 47% experienced declines, and 6% remained unchanged [1][3]. - The top price gainers included nitric acid, sulfur, PTA, DMF, and epoxy chloropropane, while the largest price decliners were methylcyclosiloxane, acetone, cotton short-staple, NYMEX natural gas, and TDI [3]. Oil Market Summary - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $63.66 per barrel (up 1.37%) and Brent crude oil futures at $67.73 per barrel (up 2.85%) [4]. - As of August 17, U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 55,000 barrels from the previous week but a decrease of 1.8 million barrels from the same time last year [4]. - U.S. oil demand averaged 21.51 million barrels per day, up 1.49 million barrels from the previous week, while gasoline demand was 8.84 million barrels per day, down 15,800 barrels [4]. - U.S. crude oil inventories totaled 824.10 million barrels, down 5.80 million barrels from the previous week, with commercial crude oil inventories at 420.70 million barrels, down 6 million barrels [4]. MDI and TDI Market Summary - The average price of polymer MDI as of August 22 was 15,450 yuan/ton, down 1.59% from the previous week, and down 14.64% year-to-date [6]. - The average price of TDI as of August 22 was 15,288 yuan/ton, down 3.43% from the previous week, but up 18.51% year-to-date [7]. - The supply of polymer MDI is tight, while TDI production has increased, but demand remains weak [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on mid-year earnings, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and companies in electronic materials that are increasingly critical under the backdrop of self-sufficiency [2][9]. - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high prices of crude oil, the ongoing recovery of the oil service industry, and the growth potential in new materials, particularly in semiconductors and renewable energy [9].
化工行业周报20250824:国际油价上涨,聚合MDI、TDI价格下跌-20250829
Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of rising international oil prices and the decline in prices of MDI and TDI, suggesting a focus on mid-year earnings reports and the influence of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries [2][9] - It emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies and recommends stable dividend-paying energy enterprises [2][9] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in upstream oil and gas sectors, new materials, and emerging fields such as pharmaceuticals and renewable energy [2][9] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of August 24, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemical sector is 25.73, at the 82.13 percentile historically, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.20, at the 52.14 percentile [2][9] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 11.45, at the 24.37 percentile historically, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.17, at the 23.56 percentile [2][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on mid-year earnings, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][9] - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high oil prices, the ongoing high demand in oil and gas exploration, and the rapid development of downstream industries, particularly in new materials [2][9] - Recommended companies include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several others in the new materials sector [2][9] Price Changes and Market Performance - In the week of August 18-24, 36 chemical products saw price increases, while 32 experienced declines, and 32 remained stable [8] - The average price of WTI crude oil was $63.66 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.37%, while Brent crude oil was $67.73 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.85% [8][9] - The report notes a decline in the prices of MDI and TDI, with MDI averaging 15,450 yuan/ton, down 1.59% from the previous week, and TDI averaging 15,288 yuan/ton, down 3.43% [2][9]
聚合MDI行业报告:家电汽车建筑节能领域复苏,反倾销冲击出口市场
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 07:21
内容概况:随着下游行业家电、汽车、建筑节能等领域的复苏,国内聚合MDI市场需求呈现强劲增长态 势。2025年上半年,中国聚合MDI产量为192.67万吨,同比增长13.96%;聚合MDI消费量为169.06万 吨,同比增长43.38%。从下游细分领域来看,家电行业更新换代需求释放、 新能源 汽车产销量攀升以 及 绿色建筑 标准提升带来的保温材料升级,共同构成了需求端的核心 驱动力 。 相关上市企业: 万华化学 (600309) 相关企业: 中国石化 集团南京化学工业有限公司、山东 华鲁恒升 化工股份有限公司、 中国石油 化工 股份有限公司、 云天化 集团有限责任公司、滨化集团股份有限公司、上海汽车集团股份有限公司、中 国第一汽车集团有限公司、 北新建材 集团有限公司、 东方雨虹 防水技术股份有限公司、 海尔智家 股 份有限公司、 美的集团 股份有限公司、珠海 格力电器 股份有限公司 关键词:聚合MDI、聚合MDI市场规模、聚合MDI行业现状、聚合MDI发展趋势 一、行业概述 聚合MDI(Polymeric MDI),全称为聚合二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯(Polymeric Diphenylmethane Diiso ...
基础化工周报:受出口端影响,尿素价格波动运行-20250824
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-24 07:28
Price Trends - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 17,950, 15,580, and 15,489 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of +10, -210, and -515 CNY/ton compared to the previous period[2] - The average price for urea is 1,755 CNY/ton, showing an increase of 5 CNY/ton, while the average price for synthetic ammonia is 2,162 CNY/ton, decreasing by 127 CNY/ton[2] Profit Margins - The gross profit margins for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 4,577, 3,241, and 4,619 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of +5, -238, and +121 CNY/ton compared to the previous period[2] - The gross profit margin for urea is 71 CNY/ton, increasing by 4 CNY/ton, while synthetic ammonia has a gross profit margin of 211 CNY/ton, decreasing by 148 CNY/ton[2] Market Performance - The basic chemical index increased by 2.9% over the past week and 8.2% over the past month, while the year-to-date increase is 22.5%[7] - Wanhua Chemical's stock price rose by 6.6% in the past week, while Baofeng Energy's stock price increased by 4.8%[7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected project implementation, weaker-than-expected demand recovery due to macroeconomic slowdown, and significant changes in industry capacity[2][60]
万华化学(600309):龙头经营稳健,周期拐点向上
Tebon Securities· 2025-08-22 05:32
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's main business remains stable, with a short-term impact from impairment and scrapping [5] - The company reported a revenue of 90.901 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.123 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to gradually emerge from the cyclical bottom due to improving product prices and demand in Q3 2025 [6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 47.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.1% [5] - The sales volume for polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals increased by 14.5%, 7.8%, and 35.4% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The gross margin and net margin for Q2 2025 were 12.2% and 7.0%, respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous year [6] Future Growth Potential - The company has ongoing projects that are expected to enhance its growth in the medium to long term, including a new 700,000-ton/year polyurethane expansion project expected to be operational by Q2 2026 [6] - The company is also involved in a joint venture to build a 1.6 million-ton/year specialty polyolefin project, which will significantly enhance its international presence [6] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a net profit of 13.876 billion yuan, 17.142 billion yuan, and 19.971 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.43, 5.48, and 6.38 yuan [8]