日前津巴布韦锂矿出口叫停问题传闻引发市场关注，美股锂矿概念盘前出现变动，Sigma Lithium、美 国雅保、智利矿业化工、Lithium Argentina AG等相关企业的盘前交易出现变化。 华西证券2026年2月25日发布的有色金属行业海外季报显示，WesCEF的锂业务在2025年下半年贡献600 万澳元收益，主要得益于矿山和选矿厂的强劲表现以及下半年价格的上涨，预计2026财年锂辉石精矿产 量将接近此前预期的16万吨至18万吨区间的上限。奎纳纳氢氧化锂精炼厂于2025年7月产出首批产品， 目前因间歇性异味问题影响产能爬坡进程，相关工程预计2026年中期完成。华西证券2026年2月4日发布 的海外季报提到，Pilbara Minerals 2025年第四季度锂精矿总产量为20.8万吨，环比减少7%，总销量为 23.2万吨，环比增长8%，按到岸价格计算的单位运营成本环比上涨11%至470美元／吨。东吴证券2026 年1月29日发布的电力设备行业跟踪周报显示，1月21日雅保拍卖5.49%锂辉石精矿1.67万吨，成交价为 含税1.69万元/吨，同期碳酸锂价格出现上涨，产业链加速调价，新签订单已反应涨价情况。 ...

格隆汇2月25日｜Sigma Lithium涨超8%，美国雅保涨超4%，智利矿业化工、Lithium Argentina AG涨约 4%。消息面上，津巴布韦据悉暂停出口锂精矿和原矿。 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 Sigma Lithium涨超8%，美国雅保涨超4%。此前消息称津巴布韦暂停出口锂精矿和原矿。 ...

Operational Update and Business Strategy February 2026 : SGML : SGML : S2GM34 Disclaimer No Offer or Solicitation Regarding Securities This presentation has been prepared by Sigma Lithium Corporation ("Sigma") for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of Sigma or its affiliates in any jurisdiction, including but not limited to Canada and the United States. The contents of this presentation should not be interpreted as f ...

Company Performance - Sigma Lithium Corporation (SGML) closed at $11.59, reflecting a -3.66% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500 which had a daily loss of 0.33% [1] - Over the past month, shares of Sigma Lithium have depreciated by 23.18%, while the Basic Materials sector gained 11.52% [1] Earnings Forecast - The upcoming earnings release is expected to show an EPS of -$0.12, indicating a 50% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Quarterly revenue is projected at $35.9 million, down 25.26% from the year-ago period [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at -$0.35 per share and revenue at $129 million, representing changes of +23.91% and -15.18% respectively from the prior year [3] Analyst Estimates - Changes in analyst estimates for Sigma Lithium are important as they reflect short-term business dynamics, with positive revisions indicating a favorable business outlook [4] Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), shows Sigma Lithium currently at 2 (Buy), with a 24.75% increase in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days [6] - Historically, stocks rated 1 have delivered an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [6] Valuation Metrics - Sigma Lithium is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 19.09, which is below the industry average of 19.59, indicating a discount [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.32, compared to the industry average of 0.99, suggesting favorable growth expectations relative to its price [8] Industry Context - The Mining - Miscellaneous industry, part of the Basic Materials sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 46, placing it in the top 19% of over 250 industries [8] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The actual fundamentals of lithium carbonate are positive, but the futures market is significantly affected by macro - sentiment and capital flows. After the Spring Festival, the fundamentals are expected to show a simultaneous increase in supply and demand. From March to Q2, lithium carbonate is still expected to experience inventory reduction. After the supply increases in Q3, there may be inventory accumulation, but considering the demand growth, the inventory days are expected to decrease to less than one month. The price center of lithium carbonate may still be significantly higher than before. A bullish strategy is recommended, and investors should look for opportunities to go long at low prices after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [2][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1 Month Chilean Shipment Exceeded Expectations, and the Futures Market Declined Significantly - **Price Changes**: This week (2/2 - 2/6), lithium salt prices dropped significantly. The closing price of LC2605 decreased by 10.3% week - on - week to 132,900 yuan/ton. The average spot prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 16.2% and 16.6% week - on - week to 134,500 and 131,000 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide fluctuated accordingly [11] - **Chilean Exports**: In January 2026, Chile exported a total of 25,400 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 26% increase month - on - month and an 8% decrease year - on - year. Exports to China were 17,000 tons, a 44.8% increase month - on - month and an 11% decrease year - on - year. In January 2026, Chile shipped 27,800 tons (13,900 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a 475% increase month - on - month and a 1222% increase year - on - year. This large shipment may be due to pulse shipments considering the Spring Festival [1][12] - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: According to SMM forecasts, the lithium carbonate production in February is 81,930 tons, a 16% decrease month - on - month. In the demand side, the production schedules of cathodes and cells also decreased in February, but the decline was lower than that of lithium salts. It is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to reduce inventory in February. This week, the total inventory of the SMM lithium carbonate sample decreased by 2019 tons week - on - week [13] - **Terminal Market**: In the power battery sector, in January 2026, the estimated wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 900,000 units, a 1% year - on - year increase. Considering the Spring Festival effect in the same period last year, this data is not optimistic. In the energy storage sector, in January 2026, there were 152 energy storage bidding and winning projects. On January 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the capacity price mechanism on the power generation side, which is beneficial to the energy storage yield [2][15] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Sigma Lithium resumed the mining operation of the Grota do Cirilo lithium mine on February 3, 2026. This mine is Sigma's only operating asset and the largest lithium mine in Brazil, with an annual production capacity of 270,000 tons of lithium concentrate [17] - Tianqi Lithium plans to dispose of no more than 3,565,970 Class A shares of SQM, accounting for no more than 1.25% of SQM's total shares [17] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Price Trends of Ore and Salt are Consistent - The report presents data on the average spot price of lithium concentrate and the monthly inventory of lithium ore samples [19][21] 3.3.2 Lithium Salts: The Futures Market Fell from High Levels, and the Basis Fluctuated Significantly - The report shows data on the closing price of the GFEX lithium carbonate main contract, the term structure of GFEX lithium carbonate, domestic weekly lithium carbonate production, SMM weekly lithium carbonate inventory, domestic average spot price of lithium carbonate and the electric - industrial price difference, lithium carbonate basis, domestic average spot price of lithium hydroxide, the price difference between domestic and overseas lithium hydroxide, the price difference between domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, and the theoretical production profit of lithium salt plants [24][31][34] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: The Production Schedules in February are Good - The report includes data on the monthly production of SMM ternary materials, SMM lithium iron phosphate, the price trend of lithium iron phosphate, the average price of lithium iron phosphate cells (power type), the price trend of ternary materials, the average price of 523 square ternary cells (power type), the price trend of lithium cobalt oxide, and the average price of lithium cobalt oxide cells (consumer type) [48][53][57] 3.3.4 Terminal: Pay Attention to the Negative Feedback in the Industry Chain - The report provides data on China's power battery installation volume and year - on - year growth rate, the monthly installation proportion of China's power batteries, China's new energy vehicle production and sales year - on - year growth rate, and China's new energy vehicle penetration rate [62][66][68]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in lithium carbonate futures is driven by a combination of regulatory policies, macroeconomic sentiment, and seasonal trading behaviors, rather than a fundamental shift in the market [4][5]. Market Analysis - The primary driver of the recent downturn is regulatory intervention aimed at cooling speculative trading, including increased fees and margin requirements, which has led to a rapid exit of speculative funds [4]. - Macroeconomic sentiment has also played a role, with declines in prices of major assets like precious metals and crude oil contributing to a general decrease in market risk appetite, further pressuring lithium carbonate prices [4]. - Seasonal factors are evident as investors tend to reduce positions and secure funds ahead of the Chinese New Year, amplifying selling pressure in the market [4]. - Recent data from Chile indicating a significant increase in lithium salt exports has raised concerns about short-term supply pressures, although this is viewed as a temporary spike rather than a long-term trend [4]. Supply and Demand Overview - Current supply dynamics show a slight contraction due to maintenance and seasonal factors, while demand remains resilient supported by battery exports and energy storage needs [5]. - As of January 2026, lithium carbonate production was reported at 97,900 tons, with battery-grade accounting for 71,440 tons, reflecting a minor month-on-month decline [8]. - The inventory of lithium carbonate has continued to decrease, with total inventory at 107,482 tons as of January 29, 2026, indicating ongoing demand despite price fluctuations [10]. Price Trends - On February 5, 2026, lithium carbonate futures closed at 132,780 yuan/ton, marking a 10.68% drop, with spot prices for high-quality lithium carbonate ranging from 146,200 to 149,500 yuan/ton [2][7]. - The market is currently experiencing a technical adjustment influenced by regulatory measures and seasonal trading patterns, with key support levels needing to be monitored for future price stability [5][13]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent price corrections are more reflective of market sentiment and seasonal factors rather than a fundamental weakening of supply-demand dynamics [13]. - The expectation of supply tightening due to maintenance and seasonal shutdowns, alongside resilient demand from the battery sector, suggests that the underlying market fundamentals remain intact [13][15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market shows a weakening trend, with the January ADP employment falling short of expectations, leading to a weakening of market risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar. The short - term outlook for the US economy is mixed, with the employment market cooling while the service sector shows mild expansion and inflation pressure remaining [2][18]. - Gold prices fluctuate and close higher. The inflow of bottom - fishing funds lacks sustainability. Geopolitical risks persist, and the progress of the US - Iran negotiation falls short of expectations, increasing the long - short game in the gold market [3][14]. - The bond market has many potential negative factors, and the probability of weakening after a sideways movement is high. It is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [4][27]. - In the sugar market, the production and sales pressure of sugar mills in Guangxi is large, and the sales pressure is expected to further increase in the later stage of the crushing season. The domestic sugar market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [5][42]. - After a significant macro - level cooling, zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage [6]. - The US propane inventory has decreased significantly, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to narrow next week [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key points: The cancellation of the US - Iran negotiation on Friday, the inflow of bottom - fishing funds in the gold market with limited sustainability, the repeated short - term geopolitical situation, and the increase in the long - short game. It is recommended to wait for the volatility to decline before making allocations [3][14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Key points: The Fed decides to keep the capital requirements of large - scale banks unchanged in 2026. The January ADP employment in the US is lower than expected, the labor market weakens, the market risk appetite weakens, and the US dollar rebounds in the short term [16][18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The performance guidance of AMD is lower than expected, the Q4 revenue of Google's cloud business grows by 48%, but the large - scale capital expenditure in the future causes stock price fluctuations. During the earnings season, the US stock market is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [20][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The Shanghai Composite Index recovers and returns to 4100 points. Affected by news, coal stocks drive the pro - cyclical blue - chip sector to recover. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures and evenly allocate the three major stock indexes [24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Key points: The central bank conducts a 75 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is likely to weaken after a sideways movement, and it is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - Key points: Some Indonesian coal mines suspend offering due to production quota issues. The Indonesian side has a clear demand for production cut and price protection, and the bottom of coal prices is more solid, but the upward elasticity needs to be observed [28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Key points: The iron ore project of Atlas Iron is approved by the government. The iron ore price maintains a weak oscillation. The downstream restocking is completed, and the supply is at a high level. The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [30]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Key points: Brazil imposes anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Indian color - coated sheets. The steel price continues to oscillate. The steel price is less affected by the rise in coal prices, and it is recommended to treat the steel price with an oscillatory mindset [31][33][34]. 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - Key points: The coking coal price in the Linfen market is weakly stable. The supply may shrink during the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by the Indonesian event, showing a strong oscillation [36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Key points: India's sugar production increases, and the sugar production in Guangxi decreases. The production and sales rate is at a low level, and the sugar mill's sales pressure is expected to increase. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40][42]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Key points: Malaysia's palm oil inventory may decline in January. The US Treasury Department issues the 45Z proposed rule. It is recommended to focus on relevant data and conferences and consider going long on dips [43][45][46]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Key points: Sigma Lithium resumes mining operations, and Fulin Jinggong and CATL increase capital in Jiangxi Shenghua. The production and demand of lithium carbonate decline in February, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to go long on dips after the position and volatility stabilize [47][49][51]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Key points: The LME lead shows a discount. The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The lead price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to medium - term long positions [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Key points: The LME zinc shows a discount, and Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 decreases by 15% quarter - on - quarter. Zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][55]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Key points: Chile releases a key mineral strategy, and the EU proposes a key mineral partnership with the US. The macro - sentiment supports copper prices, but the short - term spot structure is loose. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Key points: The LME tin shows a discount. The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery and consumption improvement [59][60][61]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Key points: The US propane inventory decreases significantly, but the supply is still abundant. It is recommended to wait and see due to various disturbances [62]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Key points: The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries decreases. The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price fluctuates greatly [62][63][65]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises increases. The LLDPE price may oscillate strongly driven by cost, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [66]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese methanol ports decreases. Due to the increasing geopolitical risks, the previous short - selling strategy is no longer valid, and it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [67]. 2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Key points: Ports in the Mediterranean and Chittagong go on strike. The Middle - East geopolitical situation supports the high - level oscillation of the market. The downward space of the spot price is limited [68][69][70].

Core Viewpoint - Sigma Lithium Corporation's stock performance has been mixed, with a recent increase of 2.33% but a significant decline of 25.94% over the past month, contrasting with gains in the Basic Materials sector and the S&P 500 [1] Financial Performance - The upcoming earnings report for Sigma Lithium is expected to show an EPS of -$0.12, representing a 50% decrease from the same quarter last year, with projected revenue of $35.9 million, down 25.26% year-over-year [2] - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict an EPS of -$0.35 and revenue of $129 million, indicating a 23.91% increase in earnings but no change in revenue compared to the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates and Market Sentiment - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Sigma Lithium are being closely monitored, as positive revisions can indicate optimism about the company's business outlook [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which reflects these estimate changes, currently rates Sigma Lithium as 2 (Buy), suggesting a favorable outlook based on historical performance [6] Valuation Metrics - Sigma Lithium is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 19.08, which is lower than the industry average of 21.18, and has a PEG ratio of 0.32, compared to the industry average of 1.06 [7] Industry Context - The Mining - Miscellaneous industry, which includes Sigma Lithium, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 60, placing it in the top 25% of over 250 industries, indicating strong performance potential [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for lithium carbonate [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - level adjustment of the market and the implementation of the energy storage capacity price mechanism. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be more likely to rise than fall due to demand support and mining end disturbances. It is advisable to take a bullish approach and look for opportunities to go long at low levels after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [1][2] - The introduction of the national - level policy on the grid - side independent new - type energy storage capacity price mechanism is favorable for the energy storage yield and installed capacity, and may increase the tolerance of energy storage for lithium carbonate prices. However, the rise in lithium carbonate prices may put pressure on the power end [2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.盘面高位调整，储能容量电价机制落地 - This week (1/23 - 1/30), lithium salt prices dropped significantly. The closing price of LC2605 decreased by 18.4% to 148,200 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 6.1% and 6.3% to 160,500 and 157,000 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide also fluctuated accordingly [11] - On the supply side, Sigma Lithium's mining restart is on schedule, expected to be completed in January 2026. From late January to February, some lithium salt plants have annual maintenance plans. SMM predicts that the lithium carbonate output in February will be 81,930 tons, a 16% month - on - month decrease [1][12] - On the demand side, the downstream cell production schedule in February decreased month - on - month. In February, the lithium battery production schedule was 172GWh, a 12% month - on - month decrease. Among them, lithium iron phosphate was 139GWh, a 10% month - on - month decrease; ternary was 26.5GWh, a 15% month - on - month decrease; power was 105GWh, a 12% month - on - month decrease; energy storage was 57GWh, a 9% month - on - month decrease [1][12] - This week, the total inventory of the SMM lithium carbonate sample decreased by 1,414 tons month - on - month. It is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to reduce inventory in February. Currently, the upstream inventory is only 5 days, the mid - stream inventory has decreased to 12.7 days, and the downstream inventory has increased to 10.8 days [1][12] - After the sharp drop in the market on Friday, there were many limit - down orders. The pre - holiday stockpiling demand was largely released, and it is expected that the pre - holiday stockpiling demand will moderately weaken [1][12] - On January 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau issued a notice to establish a grid - side independent new - type energy storage capacity price mechanism, which will be promoted nationwide. It is estimated that a capacity price of 165 yuan/kilowatt can increase the energy storage IRR by 4 - 5pct, and energy storage demand may be more optimistic [2][13][14] 3.2.周内行业要闻回顾 - The lithium carbonate futures and options of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will introduce overseas traders, which helps the industry chain enterprises manage risks and promotes the pricing model to shift to the "Chinese price" [16] - India plans to introduce incentives to encourage enterprises to build lithium - nickel processing plants [17] - The rise in lithium prices has brought potential opportunities for Develop's Pioneer Dome project, and the company is evaluating various development plans [17] 3.3.产业链重点高频数据监测 3.3.1.资源端：锂精矿价格随盘面波动 - Lithium concentrate prices fluctuate with the market [19] 3.3.2.锂盐：盘面高位回落，基差波动较大 - The lithium salt market has fallen from a high level, and the basis has fluctuated greatly [22] 3.3.3.下游中间品：成本驱动下游价格上涨 - The prices of downstream intermediate products are rising driven by costs [47] 3.3.4.终端：关注产业链负反馈情况 - Attention should be paid to the negative feedback of the industrial chain at the terminal [58]