策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 从红利年化 10%看收益来源 ——多行业联合红利资产 11 月报 策略月报 2025 年 12 月 03 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：杨晖 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal industry, driven by supply-demand improvements and price stabilization [3][5][10] - Coal prices showed a significant decline in the first half of 2025 but began to recover in June, with the average price for thermal coal (Q5500) at 695 CNY/ton, down 19% year-on-year, and coking coal at 1497 CNY/ton, down 28% year-on-year [4][5] - The report anticipates a sustainable improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a potential reduction in domestic coal supply exceeding 100 million tons due to the exit of pre-approved production capacity [5][49] Group 2 - The demand for coal is expected to rebound, particularly in the electricity sector, with a projected growth in coal consumption if electricity generation increases by over 3% in 2026 [7][9] - The chemical sector is also expected to maintain strong coal consumption growth, supported by China's strategic focus on coal chemical development [9] - The steel industry is projected to see increased coal demand due to government initiatives aimed at stabilizing growth, with an average annual increase of around 4% in value added expected from 2025 to 2026 [9] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with high dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua Energy and Zhongmei Energy, which are expected to benefit from the new coal cycle [11] - Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Huayang Co. are highlighted for their potential due to their own capacity growth and significant profit elasticity [11] - The report suggests that companies in a turnaround situation, particularly in the coking coal sector, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy and Pingmei Shenma Energy, are likely to benefit from improved profitability [11]

特别提示: 2.本次控股股东与实际控制人之间产权层级减少不会导致公司 直接控股股东及实际控制人发生变化。公司直接控股股东仍为晋能控 股煤业集团有限公司，实际控制人仍为山西省国资委。 证券代码：601001 证券简称：晋控煤业 公告编号：2025-25 晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司 关于控股股东与实际控制人之间产权层级减少的 提示性公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 1.本次控股股东与实际控制人之间产权层级减少系山西省人民 政府将山西省国有资本运营有限公司（以下简称"山西国资运营公司"） 持有的晋能控股集团有限公司（以下简称"晋能控股集团"）90%股 权划转至山西省人民政府国有资产监督管理委员会（以下简称"山西 省国资委"）直接持有。 本次划转后，公司的股权控制关系如下图所示： 二、本次控股股东与实际控制人之间产权层级减少对上市公司的 影响 一、本次控股股东与实际控制人之间产权层级减少的基本情况 本次权益变动不会导致公司的实际控制人、直接控股股东及持股 比例发生变化，不影响公司控股权的稳定性，不会对公司的正常生 ...

美国煤炭需求：电力用煤需求为核心，占90%以上，2025年美国电煤需求预计明显增长 根据EIA预测，2025年美国煤炭消费量预计为4.39亿吨，同比上涨6.7%，此外，美国电厂存煤能力进一 步下滑，2025年底美国燃煤电厂煤炭库存预计将下降至1.07亿短吨水平，低库存叠加爆发性需求增速， 以及持续产量下降的供给刚性，有望带动美国煤炭市场及煤价迎来历史性反转机会。 智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报，根据EIA预测，2025年美国煤炭消费量预计为4.39亿吨，同比 上涨6.7%，此外，美国电厂存煤能力进一步下滑，2025年底美国燃煤电厂煤炭库存预计将下降至1.07亿 短吨水平，低库存叠加爆发性需求增速，以及持续产量下降的供给刚性，有望带动美国煤炭市场及煤价 迎来历史性反转机会。随着美国国内煤炭消费爆发式增长，美国煤炭出口预计趋缓，全球海运动力煤贸 易或将步入紧平衡格局，建议重点关注具备区位与成本优势的国内煤企。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 美国煤炭供给：煤炭行业投资长期底部，在建产能少，约束供给长期刚性 根据IEA《全球能源投资2025》报告数据，2024年全球煤炭投资增长几乎全由中国和印度贡献，南非和 东南亚也 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi province is expected to regain its title as the largest coal-producing province in China by 2025, following a temporary loss to Inner Mongolia in 2024, with Shanxi's coal output reaching 108,485.8 million tons compared to Inner Mongolia's 104,996.7 million tons in the first ten months of this year [1][12][14]. Group 1: Production Competition - The competition for coal production between Shanxi and Inner Mongolia has seen frequent changes over the past decade, with both provinces alternating in the top position [1][12][14]. - In 2024, Inner Mongolia surpassed Shanxi with a coal output of 129,686.9 million tons compared to Shanxi's 126,873.8 million tons [14]. - Shanxi's coal production was impacted by safety regulations and a decrease in coal prices, leading to a reduction of approximately 10 million tons from the previous year [3][16]. Group 2: Development Path Differences - Shanxi's coal industry is characterized by deep mining operations, while Inner Mongolia benefits from open-pit mining, resulting in lower extraction costs for Inner Mongolia by 30%-40% [18][20]. - The coal quality differs significantly, with Shanxi focusing on coking coal and thermal coal, while Inner Mongolia primarily produces thermal coal, which has lower price elasticity [20]. - Shanxi's coal industry has a higher profitability, with a net profit margin of 26.52% for Shanxi Jinkong Coal Industry, compared to less than 15% for Inner Mongolia's coal enterprises [20]. Group 3: Economic Role of Coal - Coal remains a critical component of the economies in both Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, contributing significantly to industrial growth [21][22]. - In Shanxi, coal industry growth contributed 70% to the overall industrial growth, with a 5.1% increase in coal production [21]. - Inner Mongolia's industrial value added increased by 5.9%, with mining and energy sectors also showing positive growth [21][22]. Group 4: Transformation Paths - Shanxi is focusing on extending its coal industry chain and developing coal chemical products, with its chemical segment accounting for 23% of revenue and a higher gross margin compared to raw coal [24]. - The province is also investing in smart mining technologies, with 60.48% of coal production coming from intelligent mines [24]. - Inner Mongolia is emphasizing breakthroughs in renewable energy, with significant growth in new energy sectors and manufacturing [24][27]. Group 5: Future Challenges and Prospects - The China Coal Industry Association predicts that coal consumption will peak around 2028, necessitating a transformation for traditional energy provinces like Shanxi [25]. - Shanxi has recognized the challenges of relying heavily on coal, with plans to diversify into strategic emerging industries [25]. - Inner Mongolia is advancing integrated development of coal, wind, and solar energy, leveraging its natural advantages in renewable energy production [27].

上市企业：晋控电力（000767）、蓝焰控股（000968）、山西焦煤（000983）、兰花科创（600123）、 永泰能源（600157）、太原重工（600169）、华阳股份（600348）、山煤国际（600546）、国新能源 （600617）、通宝能源（600780）、晋控煤业（601001）、潞安环能（601699） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国能源行业市场研究分析及投资前景评估报告》 2025年10月，山西省发电341.9亿千瓦时，同比增长3.3%。2025年1-10月，山西省发电3623.3亿千瓦时， 同比增长0.1%。分品种看，2025年1-10月，山西省火力发电量2943.4亿千瓦时，占总发电量的81.2%， 同比下滑2.1%；山西省水力发电量36.5亿千瓦时，占总发电量的1%，同比下滑0.5%；山西省风力发电 量427.2亿千瓦时，占总发电量的11.8%，同比增长11.2%；山西省太阳能发电量216.2亿千瓦时占总发电 量的6%，同比增长11%。 2018-2025年1-10月山西省各品种发电量累计产量统计图 报告中的产量数据统计口径均为规模以上工业，其统计范围为年主营业 ...

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,914.01, up by 0.65% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.25% to close at 13,146.72, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.10% to 4,576.49 [4] Coal Industry Analysis - Coal imports in October 2025 continued to show a contraction, with cumulative import volume decreasing by 11.0% year-on-year [6] - The price of imported coal in October was $71 per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of $3.65, although it remains lower compared to the previous year [6] - The reduction in coal imports is attributed to decreased supply from Mongolia and Indonesia, influenced by transportation issues and domestic production challenges in Mongolia [6] - The report suggests a potential rebound in Mongolian coal imports, with a target of 100 million tons set for 2025, although achieving this may be challenging [6] - The fourth quarter is expected to present investment opportunities in the coal sector, with a positive outlook on coal prices due to anticipated demand during the winter season [6] Company Analysis: Bosideng - Bosideng reported a revenue of 8.928 billion yuan for the first half of the 2025/26 fiscal year, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a net profit of 1.189 billion yuan, up by 5.3% [7][10] - The brand's down jacket segment led revenue growth, achieving 6.568 billion yuan, a rise of 8.3% [7] - The company has seen a significant increase in its retail store count, with a net addition of 88 stores, bringing the total to 3,558 [8] - The gross margin for the brand's down jacket business decreased slightly to 59.1%, while overall gross margin improved to 50.0% [8][10] - The company is optimistic about meeting its annual sales targets, driven by product innovation and improved channel quality [10] Company Analysis: Huhua Co., Ltd. - Huhua Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the civil explosive industry, with a complete industrial chain from R&D to sales and blasting services [11] - The company has shown steady growth, with revenues increasing from 556 million yuan in 2020 to 1.101 billion yuan in 2024, representing a CAGR of 25.58% [11] - The company is expanding its market presence, particularly in the western regions of China, benefiting from increased demand for civil explosives in mining and infrastructure projects [12] - Huhua Co., Ltd. is also actively developing intelligent blasting technologies and has entered the military sector, enhancing its growth prospects [12]

证券之星消息，12月1日煤炭开采板块较上一交易日上涨0.7%，晋控煤业领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3914.01，上涨0.65%。深证成指报收于13146.72，上涨1.25%。煤炭开采板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 14.62 | 2.96% | 22.28万 | | 3.26亿 | | 601666 | 平煤股份 | 8.04 | 2.94% | 27.24万 | | 2.18亿 | | 600348 | 天阳股份 | 7.84 | 2.48% | 76.33万 | | 6.02亿 | | 000571 | 新大洲A | 5.66 | 2.17% | 1 25.02万 | | 1.40亿 | | 669109 | 潞安环能 | 13.30 | 1.99% | 34.84万 | | 4.60亿 | | 002128 | 电投能源 | 26.39 | 1.38% | 13.54万 | | 3.57亿 | | 60 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.31% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 1,873.94 billion yuan, an increase of about 288.14 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - A total of 3,398 stocks rose while 1,872 stocks fell, with 76 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 7 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Commodity Futures - Domestic commodity futures showed a mixed performance, with silver rising nearly 6% to reach a new closing high, while platinum and polysilicon increased by over 3% [1] - Copper, both domestic and international, rose by over 2%, and gold and silicon iron saw increases of over 1% [1] - Conversely, eggs fell by over 2%, and glass and aluminum oxide dropped by over 1% [1] Regional Performance - The Shanxi sector performed steadily on December 1, with an overall increase of 0.78% and a trading volume of 10.517 billion yuan, up from 7.917 billion yuan on November 28, indicating higher market activity within the sector [1] - Approximately 70% of stocks in the Shanxi sector showed gains, although 9 stocks experienced declines, highlighting some industry differentiation [1] Individual Stock Performance - Among the rising stocks, Northern Copper was the top performer with a gain of 4.56%, reflecting a significant increase in the industrial metals sector, which rose by 2.76% and copper by 3.76% [2] - Other notable gainers included Kexin Development, Jinkong Coal Industry, Tai Steel Stainless, Huayang Co., and Dayu Biology, with respective increases of 3.45%, 2.96%, 2.75%, 2.48%, and 2.10% [2] - On the downside, Yongdong Co. led the declines with a drop of 1.74%, followed by Antai Group, Luohua Technology, Shitou Co., and Dongjie Intelligent, which fell by 1.07%, 0.95%, 0.73%, and 0.71% respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal industry, indicating expected performance to lead the market [1]. Core Insights - The coal import volume continues to show a contraction trend, with a cumulative decrease of 11.0% from January to October 2025. The import price for coal in October was $71 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline but a month-on-month increase of $3.65 [4][5]. - The report highlights that while domestic coal prices have unexpectedly risen in October, the import volume has decreased due to significant reductions in imports from Mongolia and Indonesia, influenced by transportation issues and local production challenges [6][7]. Summary by Sections Import Data Analysis - The cumulative import volume of coal from January to October 2025 shows a decrease of 11.0%, with October's import volume down 9.75% year-on-year and 9.26% month-on-month. All major coal types experienced a month-on-month decline, particularly thermal coal and lignite [4][5]. - The average import price for coal in October was $71 per ton, which is lower than the previous year but increased from the previous month [4]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the reasons behind the decline in coal imports, particularly from Mongolia and Indonesia, due to political instability and seasonal weather impacts affecting production [6][7]. - The potential for a rebound in Mongolian coal exports is noted, with a target of 100 million tons set for 2026, although challenges remain in achieving this goal [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the coal sector presents investment opportunities in the fourth quarter, driven by expected demand increases and a favorable pricing environment. The report anticipates that fourth-quarter performance may exceed that of the third quarter, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7][8].