2026 年 01 月 30 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：50 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-29 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-28 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-27 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 50 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The 2025 annual performance reports of 10 listed banks in A-shares show a year-on-year increase in net profit and stable asset growth, with some banks achieving double-digit growth in key sector loan balances [1][2] - The reported banks include four joint-stock banks, five city commercial banks, and one rural commercial bank, all of which have demonstrated revenue and net profit growth [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - Among the joint-stock banks, China Merchants Bank leads with a net profit of 150.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.21%, while Shanghai Pudong Development Bank shows a remarkable growth of 10.52% [2][3] - City commercial banks and rural commercial banks also reported revenue and net profit growth, with Ningbo Bank and Nanjing Bank showing significant increases in revenue [2][3] Group 3: Asset Quality and Risk Management - The asset quality of the 10 listed banks remains stable, with non-performing loan ratios ranging from 0.76% to 1.26%, and several banks have seen a decrease in their non-performing loan ratios compared to the previous year [7] - The overall provision coverage ratio has declined for most banks, indicating a strategic release of provisions to support net profit while maintaining a solid risk buffer [7]

Group 1: Key Insights from the Reports - The report on the banking industry indicates that 2026 is expected to be a year where the fundamentals of banks improve, with revenue pressure less than in 2025 and a stronger elasticity of revenue improvement compared to profit [13] - The banking sector is anticipated to experience a shift from a focus on liquidity to a focus on fundamentals, with expectations of economic recovery and a more favorable environment for growth premiums [13] - The report highlights that credit demand is expected to remain stable, but the structure of demand needs optimization, with state-owned banks and quality regional city commercial banks likely to perform better [13] Group 2: Industry Performance and Trends - The metal and new materials industry report notes a significant increase in metal prices due to geopolitical tensions, with precious metals rising by 18.46% and aluminum by 4.16% in the recent week [5][16] - The report emphasizes that the copper market is expected to remain strong due to increased investment in power grids and AI data centers, with a projected price increase [15] - The report on Anta Sports highlights the acquisition of a 29% stake in PUMA, which is seen as a strategic move to enhance its global multi-brand strategy, with the transaction valued at approximately 15 billion euros [19] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China Shipbuilding's earnings forecast for 2025 indicates a significant increase in net profit, expected to be between 7 billion to 8.4 billion yuan, driven by rising demand in the shipbuilding sector [21] - New Oriental's revenue for the second quarter of FY26 reached 1.191 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, with a notable improvement in operating profit margins [22] - Dongfang Zhenxuan reported a revenue increase of 5.7% in the first half of FY26, driven by self-operated product sales and improved profit margins [24]

行业点评报告 · 银行行业 银行板块配置窗口开启 —— 从资金流向看银行定价逻辑 2026 年 01 月 29 日 核心观点 银行行业 | | | 分析师 张一纬 ：010-80927617 ：zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理：袁世麟 ：yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn ⚫ 市场风格切换，主动型资金延续欠配状态，偏好度维持低点：2025Q4 主 动型基金对银行持仓总市值为 305.45 亿元，占比为 1.88%，环比+0.07pct， 仍处于近五年低位；低配比例为 8.88%，环比扩大 0.5pct。资金主要流向有 色金属、通信、非银金融行业，持仓占比分别较上季度+2.07pct、+1.89pct、 +1.03pct。2025Q3 以来，市场风格切换，板块轮动明显。2026 年年初至 1 月 28 日，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.9%，有色金属、石油石化、传媒行业涨幅居 前，分别上涨 28.89%、12.49%、12.22%，银行板块下跌 7.68%，表现弱于 其他行业。整体来看，银行板块受主动 ...

根据宁波银行手机银行的介绍，定存金业务是客户在该行开立个人结算账户，通过柜面或网银渠道，与 该行签订定存金协议，约定定存金数量、期限、价格等要素，购入该行以黄金资产为标的的相关定存金 份额，进行定存操作，到期后获得以人民币计的定存金利息，并可对定存份额进行续存、赎回或提取的 业务。 据悉，"定存金"是一款R3中风险理财产品，其收益与金市波动相关。市场分析认为，此次利率调整主 要背景是近期国际金价持续处于高位且波动显著，银行方面为合理对冲风险、控制资金与运营成本所采 取的措施，也提醒投资者应充分关注黄金市场波动及该类产品的自身风险属性。 商报讯 （记者 苗露） 近日，宁波银行发布公告，决定自今年1月28日起调整定存金产品定存利率。调 整后的定存金产品定存利率活期降为0%。事实上，在近期金价高位运行背景下，银行已然着手调整相 关业务定价。除却宁波银行外，近期还有平安银行也曾发布公告下调黄金积存业务利率。 业内人士建议，投资者应更关注黄金的长期配置价值和波动风险，通过定投方式平摊成本，而非过度在 意微薄的利息差异，也要避免单纯因"存款+利息"的简单考量而盲目入场。 银行下调黄金积存利率 从宁波银行发布的公告来看，1 ...

Core Insights - The price of spot gold has surged, breaking the $5,500 per ounce mark, continuing its upward trend [2] - Banks are adjusting their gold accumulation business, with some lowering interest rates to 0% for demand deposits and increasing minimum investment amounts [3][4] - Experts emphasize that gold should be viewed as a risk hedge rather than a speculative investment tool [6] Summary by Category Gold Price Movement - As of January 29, 2026, spot gold reached a peak of $5,598.75 per ounce, marking a significant increase of nearly 30% since the beginning of the year [5][6] - The price has consistently broken through key levels, including $5,000, $5,100, $5,200, $5,300, and $5,400 in a short span [5] Bank Adjustments - Ningbo Bank announced changes to its gold accumulation product interest rates, with demand deposit rates dropping to 0% and various term rates adjusted [3] - Ping An Bank also revised its rates, with demand deposit rates set at 0.01% and term deposits adjusted accordingly [4] - Other banks, including Agricultural Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank, have implemented similar measures, requiring risk assessment for clients engaging in gold accumulation [5] Investment Guidance - Experts advise that gold should serve as a "ballast" and "insurance" in asset allocation, primarily to hedge against extreme risks and stabilize overall portfolio volatility [6] - New investors are cautioned against treating gold as a means for quick wealth accumulation and are encouraged to adopt a disciplined investment approach, such as regular fixed investments [6]

1月21日，邮储银行发布《关于再次调整我行个人客户上海黄金交易所延期合约保证金比例的通知》 称，自北京时间2026年1月22日收盘清算时起，该行将对代理个人上金所业务（包括黄金延期合约和白 银延期合约）的交易保证金比例进行调整。其中：Ag（T+D）、Au（T+D）、Au（T+N1）、Au （T+N2）、mAu（T+D）合约保证金比例均从80%调整为120%。事实上，这已是邮储银行在一个月内 第三次对该行个人客户上金所延期合约保证金比例进行调整。 本报记者 杨洁 近期，多家银行发布调整个人客户上海黄金交易所（以下简称"上金所"）延期合约保证金比例的通知。 1月28日，建设银行发布通知称，自2026年1月29日（星期四）收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）、mAu （T+D）、Au（T+N1）、Au（T+N2）、NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12、Ag（T+D）合约的保证金比例从 44%调整为60%。 建设银行官方客服对记者表示，近期国内外贵金属价格波动加剧，市场风险提升，为顺应市场变化，保 护投资者权益，该行对个人客户上金所延期合约交易保证金比例进行调整，并提示投资者做好仓位控 制，理性投资。 工商银行1月27日发布通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 annual performance reports of A-share listed banks indicate a general increase in net profit and asset scale, with many banks showing significant growth in key sector loans, despite a decline in provision coverage ratios [1][2][3]. Group 1: Net Profit Growth - All 10 disclosed banks reported year-on-year growth in net profit, with notable performances from specific banks: China Merchants Bank led with a net profit of 150.18 billion yuan, up 1.21% year-on-year, while Shanghai Pudong Development Bank showed a remarkable increase of 10.52% [2][3]. - Among the city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, all reported both revenue and net profit growth, with Ningbo Bank and Nanjing Bank achieving significant revenue figures of 71.97 billion yuan and 55.54 billion yuan, respectively [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Scale and Quality - The total assets of the 10 listed banks showed steady growth, with several joint-stock banks reaching new milestones; for instance, China CITIC Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank both surpassed 1 trillion yuan in total assets [4]. - The asset quality remained robust, with non-performing loan (NPL) ratios ranging from 0.76% to 1.26%, and several banks, including Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank, maintaining the lowest NPL ratios at 0.76% [6][7]. Group 3: Loan Growth in Key Sectors - City commercial banks demonstrated strong loan growth, with Ningbo Bank and Xiamen Bank reporting loan growth rates of 17.43% and 18.39%, respectively, surpassing their total asset growth rates [5]. - Specific sectors such as green and technology loans saw significant increases, with Xiamen Bank's green loans growing by 68.55% year-on-year, indicating a focus on strategic lending [5].

1月29日早间，黄金价格再度刷新历史高点，现货黄金首次突破5500美元/盎司关口。 近两年间，银行积存金的起存金额也随着金价"水涨船高"，普遍从最初的500元至600元上升至千元以 上。 1月28日，浙商银行发布公告，上调该行财富金积存产品每月累计定投起点金额（包括按月、按周、按 日定投），由1200元上调至1300元（每月按20个定投日、4个定投周计算），且按月定投每期不得低于 1300元，按周定投每期不得低于325元，按日定投每期不得低于65元。更早的1月15日，宁波银行也曾发 布公告上调黄金积存金的起购金额，由1000元调整为1200元。 除了不断上调的起存金额，银行积存金的风险门槛也在不断加码。 1月26日，农业银行发布公告称，为落实监管要求，进一步保护金融消费者权益，将自1月30日起对个人 客户参与存金通黄金积存交易增加风险承受能力测评准入。而据此前报道，1月12日，工商银行已开始 上调个人客户积存金业务风险测评等级准入要求，建行等多家机构更是早已将该项业务投资准入的风险 等级升至R3及以上。 《国际金融报》记者注意到，与金价一同上涨的还有银行积存金业务的起存金额和风险门槛。另外，宁 波银行于近日下 ...

Group 1: Banking Sector - Some banks have adjusted their deposit rates for accumulated gold business, with one bank's current interest rate dropping to 0% [2] - Ningbo Bank announced changes to its fixed deposit rates effective January 28, 2026, with rates set at 0% for current accounts, 0.3% for 1-month and 3-month deposits, 0.4% for 6-month deposits, and 0.5% for 12-month deposits [2] - Certain banks have increased the minimum purchase threshold for accumulated gold, and state-owned banks now require personal customers to undergo risk assessment for accumulated gold business [2] Group 2: Automotive Sector - Tesla reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings, leading to a 3% increase in its stock price post-announcement [4] - Despite the positive quarterly results, Tesla's annual revenue declined by 3%, marking the first annual revenue drop in the company's history [4] - Tesla plans to launch the third-generation Optimus robot, aimed at mass production and capable of performing various tasks, including factory work and childcare [4][7] - CEO Elon Musk indicated that production of Model S and Model X will gradually cease as the Fremont factory transitions to producing the Optimus humanoid robot [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts [6] - The market is more focused on the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair, as current Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, although he can remain on the board until 2028 [6] - Powell emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence and suggested that his successor should remain politically detached [6] Group 4: Aviation Sector - The China Air Transport Association released a draft regulation aiming to standardize seat selection services for public air transport, ensuring passenger rights [6] - The draft proposes that at least 70% of economy class seats on domestic flights must be available for free selection, while international flights must have at least 65% [6] - Paid seat selection will only be permitted for international and regional flights, with domestic flights prohibited from offering this service [6] Group 5: Dairy Industry - The Xinjiang dairy company Maichuer is facing a significant operational crisis, with creditors applying for bankruptcy liquidation [9] - The company announced that a creditor has filed for bankruptcy proceedings, which could lead to a risk warning for its stock if accepted by the court [9] - Maichuer's stock price fell by 1.48% to 8.65 yuan per share, following its announcement of substantial losses exceeding 700 million yuan from 2022 to the first three quarters of 2025 [9]