证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 天气转冷&库存下降美国气价上涨、库存提 取欧洲气价下行 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：经济增速不及预期、极端天气、国际局势变化、安全经营风险。 2025 年 12 月 01 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -15% -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 2024/12/2 2025/4/1 2025/7/30 2025/11/27 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《降温将至美国气价上涨、库存提取 欧洲气价下行》 2025-11-24 《降温预期消化，美国气价回落、欧 洲&中国气价微降》 2025-11-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：天气转冷&库存下降美国气价上涨、库存提取欧洲气价下行。截 至 2025/11/ ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the top 20 stocks in the S&P China A-Share Dividend Opportunity Index, showcasing their daily and year-to-date performance along with dividend yields [1] - 常宝股份 (002478.SZ) leads with a daily increase of 6.26% and a year-to-date increase of 53.96%, with a dividend yield of 2.97% [1] - 德业股份 (605117.SH) and 沪农商行 (601825.SH) also show strong performance, with year-to-date increases of 39.92% and 16.03% respectively, and dividend yields of 4.89% and 4.74% [1] Group 2 - The list includes companies with varying performance, such as 森马服饰 (002563.SZ) which has a year-to-date decrease of 5.67% but a high dividend yield of 8.45% [1] - Other notable mentions include 思维列控 (603508.SH) with a year-to-date increase of 44.43% and a dividend yield of 11.71%, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The overall trend suggests a positive sentiment in the market, as indicated by the MACD golden cross signal formation, which is associated with bullish stock movements [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Chemical Industry Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently experiencing historically low gross margins per ton due to rapid domestic capacity expansion leading to oversupply, while demand has not significantly decreased, indicating potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics in the future [1][2][3] - Companies are proactively reducing capital expenditures, with expectations of continued negative growth in capital expenditures for chemical listed companies from 2024 to 2026 [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both domestic and international supply sides are showing signs of contraction. Domestically, companies are reducing capital expenditures due to poor profitability, while internationally, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased energy costs in Europe and led to operational difficulties for global chemical leaders, accelerating the shutdown of production lines [1][3] - The demand side is expected to recover, with the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, followed by China and the UK, which may lead to a resonance in demand between China and the U.S. [1][3] Emerging Opportunities - New industries such as renewable energy, energy storage, photovoltaics, and AI are expected to drive incremental demand for chemical products, with the industry projected to enter an upward cycle from 2026 to 2027 [1][3] - Recommended sectors include: - **Bottom Elastic Products**: Organic silicon and industrial silicon benefiting from high energy consumption characteristics and energy-saving trends (e.g., Hengsheng Silicon, Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group) [1][4] - **Soda Ash**: Benefiting from anti-dumping policies despite expansion (e.g., Boyuan Chemical) [1][4] - **PTA and Polyester Filament**: Stable growth in end-user demand (e.g., Tongkun, Xinfengming) [1][4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on quality stocks with bottom valuations and potential volume growth, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, and Huahong New Materials [2][4][7] - Growth companies in tires and new materials are also worth attention, such as Sailun Tire, Xin Nuobang, and Shengquan Group, which benefit from AI, new energy development, and domestic substitution [5] Strategic Outlook for 2026 - The strategy for the petrochemical industry in 2026 will adopt a top-down framework due to prolonged low margins (10%-20%) and the completion of capital expenditures in 2023 and 2024 [6][7] - Anticipation of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, reducing rates to around 3%, is expected to support a soft landing for the global economy [6] Key Focus Areas in Petrochemical Sector - The PTA sector is highlighted as a key area of focus, with optimism regarding market corrections and support from national policies [7][8] - Attention should also be given to cyclical sectors, including private refining companies like Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Hengli Petrochemical, which are expected to experience reversals [8] Additional Investment Opportunities - Other notable investment opportunities include the POE market and Xinjiang coal chemical stocks, which are expected to perform well due to stable operations and significant profit margin potential [11] - Companies like Aerospace Engineering and 3D Chemical are highlighted for their safety margins and potential valuation recovery due to supportive policies [11]

Group 1 - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body for commercial space in China marks a significant step in the development of the commercial space industry, with over 600 companies currently operating in the sector [1] - The "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)" outlines four core objectives, including support for low-cost technologies, integration of civil and commercial standards, establishment of a national fund, and the creation of a comprehensive safety regulatory system [1] Group 2 - According to招商证券, the commercial space sector is expected to enter a phase of high-frequency launches starting in 2026 following the clarification of the policy framework [2] - The European Space Agency has approved its highest budget ever, totaling approximately €22.1 billion for the years 2026 to 2028, focusing on key scientific, exploratory, and technological projects, as well as increased investment in Earth observation, navigation, and telecommunications [2] Group 3 - Major companies are actively pursuing advancements in space computing, with Starcloud launching the Starcloud-1 satellite equipped with NVIDIA H100 GPU and plans for future satellite launches and a space data center [3] - Google has announced the Suncatcher project, aiming to launch satellites equipped with the latest Trillium TPU by 2027, forming an AI computing cluster of 81 satellites [3] - Elon Musk indicated that expanding the Starlink V3 satellite scale could enable the construction of large data centers in space, with ambitious deployment goals for data centers on the Moon [3] Group 4 - The space industry supply chain is categorized into three core segments: upstream (rocket launches, satellite manufacturing), midstream (constellation networking, in-orbit control), and downstream (emergency communication and diverse application scenarios) [3] - Key companies in the upstream and midstream sectors include Yunnan Zhenye (germanium substrates), Kaipuyun and Aerospace Electronics (laser communication), and various rocket manufacturers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the rapid development and strategic importance of the commercial aerospace industry in China, highlighting the establishment of a comprehensive ecosystem that integrates launch capabilities, satellite production, and data services to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [1][9]. Group 1: Industry Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests accelerating the development of strategic emerging industries, including commercial aerospace, which is becoming a focal point for global competition among major powers [1]. - The National Space Administration has issued an action plan for promoting high-quality and safe development in commercial aerospace from 2025 to 2027 [1]. - The commercial aerospace sector is viewed as a new production force with significant market potential, necessitating collaboration between government policies and market dynamics to foster innovation and cost reduction [1]. Group 2: Launch Capabilities - The Wenchang Commercial Launch Site has achieved its seventh successful launch, marking a transition to high-density and regular launch operations [2]. - The launch site was constructed in just 878 days, with a focus on meeting the growing domestic demand for commercial launches [3]. - A universal interface design for the second launch pad allows compatibility with over 20 different rocket models, enhancing operational efficiency [3]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The second launch pad employs an innovative "three-flat" testing mode, significantly reducing the launch preparation time from approximately 20 days to as little as 10 days [4]. - The first launch pad is designed for rapid response, capable of launching and recovering within 7 days [4]. - A standardized workflow has been established to minimize human intervention and enhance safety during high-density launches [4]. Group 4: Industrial Ecosystem - The development of a "factory-to-launch" model is underway, with a focus on creating a streamlined production process for rockets and satellites [6]. - The establishment of the first comprehensive factory for rocket assembly and testing in Wenchang is expected to lower launch costs significantly [6]. - The integration of satellite manufacturing and launch capabilities is being accelerated, with the largest satellite factory in Asia nearing completion [7]. Group 5: Economic Impact - The rapid growth of the commercial aerospace sector is attracting numerous upstream and downstream enterprises, creating a collaborative industrial environment [8]. - The advantages of location, policy, and industrial ecology are driving the development of the aerospace industry in Hainan, enhancing its attractiveness to high-investment companies [9]. - The synergy between aerospace and tourism is evident, with increased visitor numbers during rocket launches contributing to local economic growth [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the industry [5]. Core Insights - Molten salt energy storage is pivotal in transforming coal power from a base-load to a flexible power source, addressing the challenges posed by the increasing share of renewable energy and peak load pressures in the power system [1][16]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have set requirements for coal power efficiency, including reducing minimum output for deep peak shaving to 20% and enhancing load change rates [1][16]. - The molten salt storage technology, particularly steam heating, is currently the mainstream approach due to its high compatibility with thermal power plants and engineering maturity [2][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Special Research - Molten salt energy storage aids in the transition of coal power to a flexible power source, overcoming the "heat determines electricity" dilemma [1][16]. - The technology's core is "thermal-electrical decoupling," allowing for energy storage during low demand and release during peak demand [1][16][22]. - The report highlights the successful operation of the Guoneng Suzhou power plant's molten salt storage project as a replicable model for coal power flexibility transformation [1][25]. 2. Market Information Tracking - Electricity prices in Jiangsu and Guangdong for December 2025 are reported at 339.58 RMB/MWh and 372.33 RMB/MWh, respectively, indicating a decrease in Jiangsu and a slight increase in Guangdong compared to benchmark prices [4][39]. - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region is reported at 698 RMB/ton, remaining stable [41]. - The report notes a decline in natural gas prices, with Dutch TTF futures at 29 EUR/TWh and China's LNG at 11 USD/MMBtu [43][45]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the significant growth in renewable energy installations, with a total capacity of 2.22 billion kW, accounting for nearly 60% of the national total [8]. - The introduction of new pricing mechanisms for electricity transmission and distribution aims to support the efficient utilization of renewable energy and reduce system operation costs [9]. - The ecological environment ministry's carbon emissions trading plan aims to incentivize advanced practices and penalize laggards in key industries [10]. 4. Investment Portfolio and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coal power companies with high price elasticity, such as Huaneng International and Huadian International, due to expected improvements in profitability [11]. - For hydropower, the report is optimistic about the fourth quarter outlook, recommending attention to companies like Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy [11]. - The report also highlights the potential for independent energy storage and virtual power plants under market-driven electricity pricing [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][6][8]. Core Views - The report highlights a 7.9% year-on-year increase in national electricity market trading volume from January to October 2025, with significant growth in green electricity trading [2][15]. - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is experiencing accelerated capital expenditure, with a notable increase in project bidding activity [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policies supporting renewable energy development, predicting stable profitability for new energy generation [4][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.64%, while the public utility and environmental indices increased by 0.89% and 1.59%, respectively [1][14]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power increased by 1.60%, while hydropower and new energy generation saw smaller gains [1][24]. Important Events - In October 2025, the national electricity market trading volume reached 563.8 billion kWh, marking a 15.6% increase year-on-year [2][15]. - The cumulative trading volume for the first ten months of 2025 was 5,492 billion kWh, accounting for 63.7% of total electricity consumption, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous year [2][15]. Specialized Research - The report details 35 public bidding projects in the controlled nuclear fusion sector from October to November 2025, with a total estimated contract value of 2.6 billion yuan [3][17]. - The bidding activity has significantly accelerated compared to previous months, indicating a growing interest and investment in this area [3][17]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading new energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][22]. - The report also suggests focusing on water and waste incineration sectors, which are entering a mature phase with improved cash flow [4][22]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for various companies, all maintaining an "Outperform" rating, including Huadian International, Longyuan Power, and China Nuclear Power [8][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental protection sectors [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that coal and electricity prices are declining simultaneously, which is expected to maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power [22]. - Continuous government policies supporting renewable energy development are anticipated to lead to gradually stable profitability in renewable energy generation [22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the new retail pricing mechanism in Sichuan's electricity market, which is expected to enhance the integration of commercial storage resources by virtual power plants [18][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.77%, while the public utility index dropped by 4.33% and the environmental index decreased by 6.02% [15][25]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power declined by 4.68%, hydropower by 1.44%, and renewable energy generation by 5.67% [15][26]. Important Events - The Ministry of Finance has allocated the first batch of ecological and environmental protection funds for 2026, totaling 40 billion yuan for integrated protection projects, 153 billion yuan for ecological restoration of abandoned mines, and 136 billion yuan for marine ecological protection projects [16][17]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][22]. - The report suggests focusing on water and waste incineration sectors, which are entering maturity with improved free cash flow, and highlights investment opportunities in companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [23]. - The report also points out the potential in the domestic waste oil recycling industry due to the EU's SAF blending policy, recommending companies like Shangaohuaneng [23]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for various companies, indicating a positive outlook for those in the public utility and environmental sectors [8].

Market Overview - The gas sector increased by 1.15% on November 28, with Delong Huineng leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.6, up 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12984.08, up 0.85% [1] Key Performers in Gas Sector - Delong Huineng (000593) closed at 11.96, up 6.22% with a trading volume of 506,400 shares and a transaction value of 589 million [1] - Xinjiang Torch (603080) closed at 23.21, up 6.08% with a trading volume of 65,700 shares and a transaction value of 150 million [1] - Shengtong Energy (001331) closed at 14.32, up 5.84% with a trading volume of 64,300 shares and a transaction value of 90.55 million [1] - Other notable performers include Shouhua Gas (300483) up 5.28% and ST Jinjis (000669) up 4.87% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The gas sector saw a net inflow of 116 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 80.75 million [2] - The main capital inflow was observed in Shouhua Gas with a net outflow of 34.62 million from institutional investors [3] - Ninefeng Energy (605090) had a net inflow of 31.72 million from institutional investors, indicating strong interest [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental protection sectors [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that coal and electricity prices are declining simultaneously, which is expected to maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power companies. Recommendations include major thermal power enterprises such as Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, which has relatively stable regional electricity prices [22]. - Continuous government policies supporting renewable energy development are anticipated to lead to gradually stable profitability in renewable energy generation. Recommended companies include leading national renewable energy firms Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy, as well as regional offshore wind power companies [22]. - The report suggests that the growth in installed capacity and electricity generation will offset the downward pressure on electricity prices, with nuclear power companies expected to maintain stable profitability. Recommended companies include China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [22]. - The report emphasizes the defensive attributes of hydropower stocks in a global interest rate decline environment, recommending Longjiang Power, which combines stability and growth [22]. - The report identifies investment opportunities in the environmental sector, particularly in water and waste incineration industries, which are entering a mature phase with improved free cash flow [23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.77%, with the public utility index down 4.33% and the environmental index down 6.02%. The relative performance of public utilities and environmental sectors ranked 10th and 23rd among 31 first-level industry classifications [15][25]. Important Events - The Ministry of Finance has allocated the first batch of ecological and environmental protection funds for 2026, totaling 40 billion yuan for integrated protection and restoration projects, 153 billion yuan for ecological restoration of abandoned mines, and 136 billion yuan for marine ecological protection projects [16]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends various companies across different sectors, including: - Thermal Power: Huadian International and Shanghai Electric - Renewable Energy: Longyuan Power, Three Gorges Energy, and regional offshore wind companies - Nuclear Power: China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power - Hydropower: Longjiang Power - Environmental: Guangda Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities, focusing on mature sectors with improved cash flow [3][22][23]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, all rated as "Outperform," including Huadian International, Longyuan Power, and Guangda Environment, among others [7][8].