交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-30锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2605： 2 1.基本面：从成本端来看，整体锰矿成交价格略有回调，但整体成交价格仍处于高位，对硅锰合金价格仍有较强成本支 撑；2026年内蒙地区电价以及南方电价正在验证中。从供应端来看，前期北方主产区新增硅锰炉子点火，普硅硅锰产能增 加，本月相继出铁，供应压力增加。南方合金厂开工率稳定较低，据了解，2026年广西、贵州电费优惠政策力度有待验 证，大多依旧维持避峰生产，存在厂家选择暂时停产，等待1月底的电费结算价格。当前硅锰供应宽松压力仍存。从需求 端来看，河钢集团26年1月硅锰采量17000吨，对比12月采量：14700吨，数量增加；硅锰定价5920元/吨，对比12月硅锰定 价：5770元/吨，定价上 ...

Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 0.39% on January 29, with Changbao Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the special steel sector include: - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 15.90, up 1.47% with a trading volume of 265,300 shares and a turnover of 419 million yuan [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 6.41, up 0.94% with a trading volume of 678,000 shares and a turnover of 439 million yuan [1] - Fushun Special Steel (600399) closed at 6.82, up 0.44% with a trading volume of 1,043,200 shares and a turnover of 721 million yuan [1] - Changbao Co. (002478) closed at 9.82, down 4.01% with a trading volume of 541,800 shares and a turnover of 546 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 82.17 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 84.75 million yuan [2] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks includes: - CITIC Special Steel had a net inflow of 47.09 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Changbao Co. experienced a net outflow of 21.95 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 50 million yuan to Changbao Co. [3]

Market Performance - The special steel sector increased by 1.53% on January 28, with Jiuli Special Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] Stock Performance - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) closed at 35.43, up 7.36% with a trading volume of 206,200 shares and a transaction value of 698 million [1] - Other notable performers include: - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) at 5.52, up 2.99% [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) at 6.35, up 2.25% [1] - Xining Special Steel (600117) at 2.98, up 1.36% [1] - Conversely, Changbao Co. (002478) and Jinzou Pipeline (002443) saw declines of 0.87% and 1.11%, respectively [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector experienced a net outflow of 23.98 million from institutional investors and 18.07 million from retail investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 42.05 million [2] - The detailed capital flow for individual stocks indicates that Jiuli Special Materials had a net inflow of 21.80 million from institutional investors [3] - Other stocks with significant net inflows include: - Taiyuan Iron & Steel with 14.52 million [3] - Fangda Special Steel with 12.80 million [3] - Notably, Xining Special Steel had a net inflow of 6.99 million from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a significant decline in production, with China's crude steel output projected to drop to 96.1 million tons in 2025, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards quality and sustainability rather than sheer volume [1][5][7]. Group 1: Production Data - The World Steel Association forecasts global crude steel production to reach 1.8494 billion tons by 2025, while China's output is expected to be 961 million tons [1]. - China's crude steel production for 2024 is estimated at 1.005 billion tons, indicating a sharp decline of 44 million tons in just one year, which is more than the annual production of Germany [5][7]. - Despite the reduction, China maintains a 52% share of global steel production, significantly outpacing other countries like India and the United States [7][13]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The decline in production is attributed to proactive industry adjustments driven by policy changes, particularly under the "dual carbon" goals, which emphasize capacity and output control [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set clear guidelines to prohibit new capacity and promote the exit of outdated production facilities, particularly in regions like Hebei and Shanxi [9]. - The construction sector, a major consumer of steel, is facing a downturn, with a reported 18.14% drop in building steel sales from January to July 2025, leading to a noticeable demand gap [11]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The shift from quantity to quality is evident, with high-end steel products now accounting for a larger share of production, and companies like Shagang and CITIC Pacific Special Steel meeting both domestic and export demands [13]. - The adoption of electric arc furnaces is becoming a trend, significantly reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions, with regions like Sichuan achieving a 40% share of electric furnace steel production [15]. - Industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions is enhancing operational efficiency and cost savings, allowing for increased focus on research and development [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The reduction in crude steel output is viewed as a starting point for a transformation towards technological innovation and green low-carbon practices [17]. - Challenges such as limited scrap steel resources and high electricity costs for electric furnaces remain, but opportunities exist through government initiatives to boost infrastructure and manufacturing demand [17]. - The industry's evaluation criteria are shifting from production volume to technological advancement, environmental sustainability, and value chain collaboration, marking a new era for China's steel sector [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a projected decline in China's steel production in December 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, while the cumulative production for the year is expected to grow by 3.1% to 1.45 billion tons [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's steel production is forecasted to be 120 million tons in December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.8% [1]. - The cumulative steel production in China for the year 2025 is projected to reach 1.45 billion tons, indicating a cumulative growth of 3.1% [1]. Group 2: Companies Mentioned - Listed companies in the steel sector include Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019), Ansteel Co., Ltd. (000898), Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (600808), Shagang Group (002075), Shougang Group (000959), Baotou Steel (600010), Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825), Hunan Valin Steel (000932), Hebei Iron & Steel (000709), and Nanjing Steel (600282) [1]. Group 3: Research Report - The report titled "Analysis of Competitive Landscape and Investment Development Research on China's Steel Deep Processing Industry from 2026 to 2032" was published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1]. - Zhiyan Consulting has been dedicated to industry research for over a decade, providing in-depth industry reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1].

2020-2025年中国粗钢产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：宝钢股份（600019）,鞍钢股份（000898）,马钢股份（600808）,沙钢股份（002075）,首钢股 份（000959）,包钢股份（600010）,太钢不锈（000825）,华菱钢铁（000932）,河钢股份（000709）,八 一钢铁（600581） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国粗钢行业市场运行态势及发展趋势分析报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国粗钢产量为0.7亿吨，同比下降10.3%；2025年中国粗钢累计 产量为9.6亿吨，累计下降4.4%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the factors on the news front, the prices of black - series commodity futures have turned from weak to strong recently, and the changes in the fundamentals tend to show a basic balance between supply and demand. It is expected that there is a high possibility of a moderately strong oscillation in the future market. It is advisable to arrange medium - to long - term buy - hedging or investment positions on dips [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On January 26, the prices of some rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets rose. The rebar price in Shenyang market increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the rebar prices in Hangzhou, Wuhan, Beijing, Baotou, and Chongqing markets rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil prices in Nanchang, Baotou, Shenyang, Harbin, and Guangzhou markets increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai market fell by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot - rolled coil 2605 contracts showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values continuing to rise and the D value continuing to decline, showing a trend of a golden cross. The daily MACD green bars of the rebar and hot - rolled coil 2605 contracts narrowed for two consecutive trading days [8]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News front: Europe and the United States will not impose additional tariffs on each other due to the Greenland issue for the time being, and the risk appetite of the global financial market has turned to recovery again. The US military is gathering in the Middle East, and Iran has become the focus of geopolitical attention again. The international crude oil and energy prices have been significantly boosted by the tense situation in the Middle East and the low - temperature weather in Eurasia, and the strong energy prices have partially spilled over to the metal commodity market [9][10]. - Fundamentals: The output of the five major steel products has increased slightly for four consecutive weeks, while the demand has declined, approaching the lowest level since mid - October last year and the second - lowest level since late February last year. Due to the weekly oversupply, the total inventory has started to increase. On the cost side, the spot price of iron ore has risen after significantly giving back the gains since December 25 last year, while the spot price of coke has been relatively stable after the fourth round of price cuts. However, urged by coke enterprises, more and more steel enterprises are considering accepting a new round of price increases for coke [10]. - Raw materials: The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil has decreased by 4.7% on a four - week basis compared to the previous period, but the arrival volume has increased by 3.6%. The port iron ore inventory has reached a record high of 1.67 billion tons, and steel mills have replenished their iron ore stocks to a 23 - day available level. Independent coking enterprises have slightly reduced production after following the increase in production of steel enterprises in the past four weeks. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded again since January 12. Except on January 16, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has exceeded 190,000 tons again, and the supply of imported coal has rebounded again. Considering the cold weather in most of the north, the supply and demand are still relatively balanced [10]. 3.2 Industry News - China Iron and Steel Association: The industry should promote the application of energy - saving technologies based on the three - year summary of extreme energy efficiency to promote the green and low - carbon transformation of the steel industry [11]. - Production data of key steel enterprises in mid - January 2026: The average daily output of crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the average daily output of pig iron increased by 1.8% month - on - month, and the average daily output of steel products increased by 3.0% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased by 7.3% compared with the previous ten - day period [11]. - Corporate performance: Shagang Co., Ltd. expects its net profit in 2025 to increase by 50.69% - 78.37% year - on - year; Bayi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. expects a net loss of 1.85 - 2.05 billion yuan in 2025; Huaibei Mining Co., Ltd. expects its net profit in 2025 to decrease by about 69.21% year - on - year; Zhengzhou Coal and Electric Co., Ltd. expects a net loss of about 916 million yuan in 2025 [11][12]. - Market demand: China's demand for thermal coal decreased by 0.4% in 2025, and the proportion of the power industry further declined to 62.8% [12]. - International trade: Australia launched a safeguard measure investigation on imported pre - fabricated steel structures on January 23, 2026; Thailand decided to maintain the original anti - dumping tax rates on cold - rolled carbon steel coils and non - coils from the Chinese mainland, Taiwan region, and Vietnam for another five years on January 22, 2026 [12]. - International situation: The US Treasury Department imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems on January 23; the world's crude steel output in December 2025 decreased by 3.7% year - on - year [12]. - Market expectation: The market believes that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the January monetary policy meeting has reached 95% [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and May contracts. The data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][19].

内容概要：在国家政策的支持下，缠绕管式换热器国产化程度逐步提高，已在石油化工、煤化工、新能 源等领域得到广泛应用。在石油化工领域，绿色化、智能化等需求的推动下，炼化项目升级在全国范围 内展开，对缠绕管式换热器的需求不断加大。在煤化工领域，近年来，节能减排政策趋紧，煤化工行业 面临着较大的转型压力，也为缠绕管式换热器的进一步深化应用带来机会。另一方面，在能源结构转型 之下，燃煤发电的比例将会减少，从而导致煤炭产能产量出现过剩，煤炭价格有望持续降低，使得煤化 工行业大幅受益，从而带动缠绕管式换热器行业发展。在新能源领域，缠绕管式换热器处于快速起步阶 段。太阳能发电行业的快速发展，将大幅拓宽缠绕管式换热器的市场空间。数据显示，2019年中国缠绕 管式换热器行业市场规模达到10.2亿元，到了2025年行业市场规模达到33.5亿元左右，年复合增长率为 21.9%。 相关上市企业：川润股份（002272）、中国石油（601857）、中国石化（600028）、中国海油 （600938）、荣盛石化（002493）、华菱钢铁（000932）、沙钢股份（002075）、河钢股份 （000709）、杭钢股份（600126）等。 相 ...

（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 1月26日，沙钢股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，上市公司股价波动受宏观经济、 市场环境、投资情绪及二级市场等多重因素综合影响。公司如有回购计划，将严格按照相关规定和要求 及时履行信息披露义务。 ...

Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 1.28% on January 26, with Changbao Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the special steel sector included: - Fangda Special Steel: Closed at 6.40, up 2.07% with a trading volume of 494,500 shares and a turnover of 313 million yuan [1] - Changbao Co.: Closed at 9.88, down 3.42% with a trading volume of 397,600 shares and a turnover of 393 million yuan [2] - Xining Special Steel: Closed at 3.01, down 1.31% with a trading volume of 391,400 shares and a turnover of 118 million yuan [1][2] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 349 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 379 million yuan [2] - Specific capital flows for selected stocks included: - Fangda Special Steel: Main funds net inflow of 27.06 million yuan, retail net outflow of 10.95 million yuan [3] - Changbao Co.: Main funds net outflow of 60.73 million yuan, retail net inflow of 69.76 million yuan [3]