本文解析了数家全球头部外卖平台，来看看外卖行业的盈利能力到底如何 文|李莹 随着国内外卖平台之间较量的不断升级，外卖行业的利润率开始备受关注。外卖究竟是不是一个赚钱的行业？在国内市场很多商家和骑手的认知里， 平台从消费者、商家两边收费，必然是赚钱的。 但是，根据一些行业研究报告和相关公司的公开财务信息，就外卖平台从每单位交易中获取利润的整体水平而言，外卖很难称得上是一个高利润的行 业。 过去十几年中，全球范围内各个国家和地区的上百家外卖企业快速成长。在中国市场有美团和饿了么，欧美市场有DoorDash、Uber Eats、Just Eat Takeaway，东南亚市场有GrabFood、印度、中东市场有Zomato，还有广泛覆盖中东、欧美、亚非地区的Dilevry Hero等。 各平台从事着类似的服务，但商业模式却有所差异。通过向商家收取订单佣金和向用户收取配送费来获取收入，是行业最普遍的商业模式。订单佣金 通常在订单金额的6%-30%。在此基础上，各平台还会基于自身定位和所在市场的情况，建立更多元的营利体系。 例如，美团是外卖+即时零售，依托庞大的配送网络和商家规模实现效率的逐步提升，向规模和效率要收益；U ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the foodtech sector, with specific companies showing significant growth potential, such as OrderYOYO and Just Eat Takeaway.com [6][8]. Core Insights - Foodtech stocks have shown resilience, outperforming broader market indexes despite mixed results, with some stocks gaining up to 67% while others lost 49% [8]. - OrderYOYO's acquisition by Pollen Street Capital highlights the strategic focus on enhancing technology capabilities and M&A to support growth in the restaurant and retail tech segment [6]. - Just Eat Takeaway.com experienced a 53% increase in share price following a buyout offer, indicating strong investor interest in food delivery marketplaces [8]. Summary by Sections Key Takeaways - OrderYOYO's EBITDA margin increased from 0.5% in 2021 to 17.6% in 2024, showcasing its profitability growth [6]. - The food delivery marketplace segment is seeing consolidation, as evidenced by Just Eat Takeaway.com's acquisition offer valuing shares at a 63% premium [8]. Stock Returns - Foodtech stocks displayed a range of performance, with some companies like Else Nutrition Holdings gaining 67% year-to-date, while others like Beyond Meat saw a decline of 63% over the same period [9]. - The median stock price change for online grocery companies was a decline of 7%, while kitchen technology firms saw a modest increase of 1% [8]. Valuations - The report provides a comprehensive valuation analysis, indicating varied EV/LTM revenue multiples across different foodtech segments, with some companies experiencing significant fluctuations [14][15]. Revenue - The report outlines revenue growth trends, with companies like HelloFresh Group showing substantial growth, reaching $8.3 billion in revenue by 2024, while others like My Food Bag faced declines [18]. - The overall revenue for the online grocery segment is projected to grow, with significant contributions from major players like Instacart and Ocado Group [19].

Group 1 - Deliveroo received a proposal from DoorDash to acquire all its shares for £2.7 billion ($3.60 billion) [1] - DoorDash must make a firm offer by May 23 [1] - Deliveroo's shares have declined nearly 50% since their 2021 debut due to stagnating demand for online food delivery post-pandemic [1][5] Group 2 - Deliveroo exited the Hong Kong market, selling assets to Delivery Hero's foodpanda, as the operations were loss-making and accounted for about 5% of overall transactions [2] - Previous interest from DoorDash in acquiring Deliveroo was reported last year, but talks ended over valuation disagreements [2][3] - A potential deal would enhance DoorDash's presence in Europe, following its acquisition of Wolt Enterprises in 2021 for approximately $8 billion [4]

自从京东高调进军外卖行业，市场上对这个行业的焦点几乎都集中在了这场外卖大战上面。然而很多人 似乎忽略了，目前美团在其他市场也在打"外卖战争"。Keeta在成功打下中国香港之后，已经将刀锋指 向了中东市场 看过我前面两期文章的朋友，对于这个现象可能会产生疑惑。因为外卖是一个典型的3边交易市场，由1 个需求端（用户）以及2个供给端（骑手、商家）组成。当交易平台拥有足够规模的时候，应该带有坚 实的壁垒。 身为内地外卖霸主的美团不可能不知道这一点。那既然如此，为何美团还要选择到其他市场发动外卖大 战，甚至在中国香港还以这么快的速度把其中一家对手赶出了市场呢？而美团的这一系列成功的战术， 是否能被京东复制呢？ 一、中国香港外卖市场概况 我们先来简单了解一下在Keeta进入之前中国香港外卖市场的情况。中国香港人口750万人，外卖日单量 规模大约60万单，单均餐价150元+，单均配送费在25~50元左右。从这些数据看得出来，中国香港昂贵 的人工成本造成了配送费高企。而为了使配送费占订单总金额比例到达合理区间，平台都设置了最低的 配送门槛（Foodpanda最低的配送门槛120元），往往需要几个人一起先拼单，才能满足配送条件 ...

2025.04. 23 本文字数：3140，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 陆涵之 "我们计划从明天开始多做些投入。 "4月23日，在接受第一财经采访时，一位已入驻京东外卖的独 立咖啡店负责人表示，观望一段时间后他计划在京东外卖平台投入更多试水。 近段时间，美团和京东两家平台针对外卖业务的竞争已白热化，京东放出了用户补贴、商家优惠、骑 手争夺多个大招。 面对大额优惠券，消费者纷纷下单。据京东披露，京东外卖日订单量在一个月不到的时间内，从100 万单增至500万单。对于商家和平台而言，这一激烈的竞争能带来什么？ "商家亏本做外卖"一直是网上热议的话题，吴经理表示不会亏本做外卖，"我们确实会保本完成部分 订单，相当于提高营业额，也会提升平台的数据。但保本订单只是少数，大部分订单都有不错的利 润。"他表示较高的利润和品类、门店运营效率等有关。例如，消费者对饭团这类快餐更倾向于外卖 或者外带。对于坚持做外卖业务的原因，吴经理表示，外卖与堂食对营收的贡献占比目前为7比3， 因此格外重视外卖渠道，在京东推出外卖平台后也选择第一时间试水。 陈飞也对第一财经表示，"我们在美团这类平台上没有投流，目前每天的单量也比较 ...

Summary of Meituan's Conference Call Industry Overview - Meituan is actively expanding into the Middle Eastern food delivery market, with a focus on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have a combined population of approximately 60 million [3][4] - The food delivery penetration rate in the Middle East is around 40%, with an annual per capita order volume of about $570, indicating a strong market potential [3][4] Key Insights and Arguments - Meituan has chosen Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as its entry point due to its favorable geographic conditions and high consumer spending [3] - The competitive landscape in Saudi Arabia shows that Hunger Station holds a 45% market share, while Meituan has quickly captured 10% market share after entering, ranking first in app downloads [3][4] - The take rate in the Middle Eastern food delivery market is significantly higher than in China, generally exceeding 30%, with delivery fees accounting for about 20% and commissions ranging from 10% to 15% [3][8] - Meituan plans to replicate its successful Hong Kong strategy in Saudi Arabia by implementing low-price strategies and promotional activities to increase market penetration and order volume [3][11] - The potential profit margin for Meituan in Saudi Arabia is estimated to reach 8% to 12%, with a projected profit range of 4 billion to 11.5 billion RMB [3][11] Financial Projections - Meituan anticipates that its core local business profits will reach 62 billion RMB by 2025, with a net profit of approximately 55 billion RMB, leading to a valuation of 850 billion RMB based on a 15x P/E ratio [3][16] - Despite short-term losses from overseas investments, Meituan's long-term strategy is expected to yield positive returns and expand its overseas revenue and profit scale [3][16][17] Additional Insights - Meituan is developing its unmanned delivery business, having launched three drone routes in Shenzhen and completed 450,000 orders, with plans for further international expansion [3][12] - The cost savings from drone delivery could be significant, with operational costs potentially reduced to below 100,000 RMB, representing a 6 to 20 times savings compared to traditional delivery methods [3][13][15] - The company faces financial challenges, including projected losses of 9.3 billion RMB in 2025, primarily due to new business investments, but remains optimistic about its long-term profitability [3][16][17] Conclusion - Meituan's strategic expansion into the Middle Eastern market, combined with its innovative delivery solutions and strong management capabilities, positions it well for future growth and profitability, making it a noteworthy investment opportunity [3][17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected industry index increase of over 5% within six months [55]. Core Insights - The Middle East food delivery market is experiencing strong growth, with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $570, significantly higher than other global regions. The market size has maintained a year-on-year growth rate of over 20% from 2018 to 2023 [2][7]. - In Saudi Arabia, the food delivery market is rapidly expanding, with revenues expected to reach $10.19 billion by 2024 and a delivery penetration rate increasing from 25% pre-pandemic to 42.9% in 2024. The market is highly concentrated, with Hunger Station and Jahez holding 45% and 30% market shares, respectively [2][20][28]. - The potential profitability of the Saudi food delivery market could reach between $4 billion and $11.5 billion under neutral assumptions, warranting continued attention on companies like Meituan and Dingdong Maicai [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Middle East Food Delivery Market - The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, comprising six countries, has a significant economic status with a total GDP of approximately $2.19 trillion, and Saudi Arabia being the largest economy with a GDP of $1.1 trillion [5][6]. - The food delivery market in the Middle East has substantial growth potential, with a projected penetration rate of around 40% by 2025 and an ARPU of $570 in 2024, indicating a strong consumer spending capacity [7][9]. 2. Competitive Landscape - The Saudi food delivery market is characterized by high concentration, with major players like Hunger Station and Jahez dominating the market. The average order value (AOV) is above $17, with delivery fees varying from $1.7 to $5.7 [28][20]. - Keeta has rapidly gained market share, achieving a 10% market share within five months of its launch, indicating a strong competitive entry into the market [31][32]. 3. Profitability Estimates - The profitability model for Jahez shows a consistent increase in order volume and a take rate above 30%, suggesting a robust revenue generation capability [35]. - The profitability potential for the Saudi food delivery market is estimated to exceed $20 billion by 2027 under optimistic scenarios, with Meituan's potential earnings in Saudi Arabia projected between $4 billion and $11.5 billion [47][48].

Core Viewpoint - Deliveroo announced its exit from the Hong Kong market after ten years of operation, primarily due to losses incurred from aggressive pricing strategies employed by its competitor Keeta, which is subsidized by its parent company Meituan [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Keeta is expanding into new markets, including Saudi Arabia, and is employing similar aggressive pricing strategies to capture market share [2][4]. - Keeta's active user base reached 1 million in January, matching that of Delivery Hero's Hungerstation [2]. - Keeta's market share in Hong Kong's food delivery sector grew to 43% by the end of Q4 2024, making it the largest player by total sales in the food and grocery delivery space [6][7]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Meituan, established in 2010, has grown to become the world's largest food delivery platform, with a total transaction volume of €1360 billion (approximately $1480 billion) last year, nearly double that of Uber Eats and DoorDash [5]. - The food delivery industry is facing challenges as investors demand profitability after a period of aggressive expansion during the pandemic [5]. - Delivery Hero's CEO indicated that the IPO of its Middle Eastern subsidiary Talabat generated $2 billion in cash, positioning the company favorably against competitors like Meituan [9]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Hong Kong resident Simon Miao canceled his Deliveroo subscription due to high costs and switched to Keeta, which offers better restaurant choices, discounts, and free delivery [2]. - Part-time delivery riders in Hong Kong are attracted to Keeta due to higher earnings per order compared to other platforms [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global online food delivery industry, focusing on Just Eat Takeaway (TKWY) and its potential acquisition by Prosus for €4.1 billion (€20.3 per share) [1][11]. Company-Specific Insights Just Eat Takeaway (TKWY) - TKWY processed 92 million orders in 2023 and operates in approximately 20 countries, holding leadership positions in several key markets [25]. - The company sold its US business, GrubHub, in January 2025, indicating a strategic shift [25]. - A Buy rating is assigned to TKWY, with a target price of €21 based on a DCF valuation [28][26]. - Risks include integration and execution challenges from M&A, competitive market pressures, and potential profit volatility from expansion efforts [29]. Prosus N.V. - Prosus is positioned as a significant player in the online food delivery sector, with a portfolio that includes Tencent and Delivery Hero [30]. - A Buy rating is assigned to Prosus, with a target price of €48 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation [32]. - Risks include performance of listed assets, currency fluctuations, and regulatory challenges [34]. Delivery Hero (DHER) - Delivery Hero is noted as the largest global player in online food ordering, processing 3 billion orders in FY21 [16]. - A Sell rating is assigned to DHER due to concerns over competitive pressures in the MENA region and potential margin constraints [17]. - Target price for DHER is set at €26, based on a blend of DCF and SOTP valuations [18]. DoorDash (DASH) - DoorDash holds a 65% share of the US food delivery market and has a Buy rating with a target price of $240 [22][23]. - The company is focused on expanding into new verticals like grocery and convenience, leveraging its existing user base [22]. - Risks include competition, regulatory challenges regarding gig worker classifications, and execution risks related to growth investments [24]. Uber Technologies, Inc. - Uber is rated as a Buy, with a target price of $92, benefiting from a recovery in mobility and strong demand in delivery services [36][37]. - The company is expanding its service offerings beyond food delivery to include grocery and convenience items [36]. - Risks include macroeconomic factors, competition, and regulatory challenges [38]. Competitive Landscape - The call highlights potential bidders for TKWY, including DoorDash, Uber, and Meituan, but suggests that regulatory risks and strategic focuses may limit their interest [1][3][4][5]. - Significant geographic and shareholder overlaps among competitors could pose regulatory challenges for potential mergers [11][12]. Conclusion - The conference call provides a comprehensive overview of the competitive dynamics within the online food delivery industry, focusing on key players like Just Eat Takeaway, Prosus, Delivery Hero, DoorDash, and Uber. The insights into company strategies, valuations, and risks present a nuanced understanding of the market landscape and potential investment opportunities.