Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global virtual asset licensing system has essentially taken shape, with a systematic regional regulatory framework established [3] - Different regions exhibit variations in virtual asset licensing, reflecting distinct regulatory logics and strategic focuses [3] - Three major collaborative trends are emerging: local currency anchoring, asset custody, and anti-money laundering compliance [3] - Licensed operators and service providers are expected to become mainstream, with regulated trading platforms and stablecoin assets presenting lower risks [3] - The licensing will serve as a significant valuation support factor, with leading companies holding core licenses enjoying first-mover advantages and competitive moats [3] Summary by Sections 01 Global Virtual Asset Licensing System - The licensing framework in Hong Kong includes a dual regulatory structure for stablecoin issuers and virtual asset service providers (VASP) [8][9] - Hong Kong's VASP license requires compliance with strict operational and auditing standards, enhancing market transparency and investor safety [10] - Singapore's regulatory approach emphasizes innovation while ensuring market safety through a clear regulatory framework [11][12] - The European MiCA framework provides comprehensive regulations for crypto assets, categorizing them into electronic money tokens, asset-referenced tokens, and utility tokens [13][14] - The U.S. regulatory landscape is characterized by a complex multi-layered system involving federal and state-level oversight [17][18] 02 Differences and Collaborations in Regional Licensing - Hong Kong's licensing system is more inclusive for retail investors compared to Singapore's cautious approach [26] - The regulatory frameworks in Hong Kong and Europe aim to provide clear guidelines to foster innovation while ensuring compliance [26] - The U.S. regulatory environment is fragmented, requiring compliance with both federal and state regulations [26] 03 Investment Recommendations - Beneficial targets include licensed firms such as Zhongyou Capital, Bank of China Hong Kong, and Coinbase Global [4] - The report highlights the importance of holding licenses as a key factor for valuation and competitive advantage in the virtual asset industry [3][4]

Group 1 - The three major indices continued to show strength, with the fintech ETF Huaxia (516100) experiencing a slight decline after a brief high opening, reflecting a mixed performance in the market [1] - The fintech ETF Huaxia (516100) has seen a net subscription of 320 million in the past five days, indicating strong investor interest despite the current dip [1] - The China Service Trade Association plans to launch a high-level training course on "Stablecoins and Innovative Development in Cross-Border E-Commerce" in August, focusing on the core concepts, underlying logic, and regulatory framework of stablecoins [1] Group 2 - The fintech ETF Huaxia (516100) closely tracks the CSI Financial Technology Theme Index, which includes major players in software development, internet finance, and the digital currency industry, with a stablecoin content of 23.43%, the highest in the market [2] - The index's top holdings include industry leaders such as Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, and Runhe Software, as well as popular stablecoin stocks like Dongxin Pinghe and Yingshisheng, providing investors with a convenient way to invest in stablecoins and digital currencies [2] - According to Everbright Securities, the use of stablecoin-related technologies and platforms can facilitate cross-border transactions and reduce transaction costs for buyers and sellers [1]

证券研究报告 合规时代开启，全球竞赛加速 ——稳定币行业深度报告 行业评级：看好 2025 年 7 月 17 日 分析师 刘雯蜀 分析师 童非 研究助理 张致远 邮箱 liuwenshu03@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 tongfei01@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 zhangzhiyuan@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523020002 证书编号 S1230524050005 摘要 2 1、稳定币：币值稳定的数字货币 • 稳定币是锚定法币、商品或加密资产的加密数字货币，通过足额抵押或算法调节供应量维持价值稳定。相较传统支付，稳定币依托区块链实现点 对点实时清算，交易成本低（如币安$ENA合约资金费率仅为0.25%，2023 Q3全球平均汇款成本为6.18%）、高效（只需几秒到几分钟内，传统 时间需3-5天）、门槛低（稳定币最低只需几美元即可转账）。稳定币已广泛用于交易撮合、DeFi、供应链金融及跨境支付，成为数字经济生态的 重要基石。 2、核心催化：香港《稳定币条例》8月1日实施，美国推进GENIUS法案 95% • 2025年6月6日，香港特区政府在宪报发布公告，指定202 ...

Group 1 - Stablecoins serve as a stabilizing force in the volatile digital currency market, providing value stability and risk reduction for financial transactions and market development [1][2] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation is the world's first comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins, requiring issuers to operate with licenses and maintain 100% asset reserves, which supports multi-currency stablecoin issuance [4] - The U.S. Stablecoin Act of 2025 aligns with Hong Kong's regulations, promoting compliance in the stablecoin industry and enhancing investor confidence, which supports long-term valuation for related sectors in the A-share market [4] Group 2 - Stablecoins utilize blockchain technology to enable cross-border payments with near-instantaneous transactions and a 90% reduction in costs, addressing traditional international remittance challenges [4] - Companies like Sifang Precision, Feitian Technology, and Hengbao Co. are expected to see order growth due to their involvement in stablecoin applications in cross-border payments and supply chain finance [4] Group 3 - Tianyang Technology, a bank IT service provider, has entered the cross-border payment sector and is expected to rapidly expand market share due to increasing demand for stablecoin payments [5] - Youbuxin's smart POS terminals support stablecoin payments and are collaborating with major internet companies to test retail payment scenarios, indicating a growing demand for their technology [6] - Jingbeifang, a leading bank IT operations company, has developed an AI risk control model with a 99.7% interception rate for abnormal transactions and has successfully completed cross-border payment tests [7] Group 4 - Kelong Software, a digital banking service provider, has developed stablecoin wallet solutions for major banks and has a SaaS platform with over 500,000 merchant contracts, projecting a GMV of over 300 billion yuan in 2024 [8] - A company deeply involved in Shanghai's state-owned asset integration strategy has developed a system supporting stablecoins and has secured significant contracts, indicating strong growth potential [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of 29.31 RMB [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the dual drivers of artificial intelligence (AI) and information innovation, alongside opportunities presented by stablecoins [1][10][12]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 5.17 billion RMB, 5.77 billion RMB, and 6.43 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.43%, 11.66%, and 11.44% respectively [10][11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 0.36 billion RMB, 0.41 billion RMB, and 0.48 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 16.58%, 14.01%, and 16.12% [10][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.42 RMB, 0.48 RMB, and 0.55 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][11]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.24 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 15.5% [3]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 0.348 billion RMB, showing a significant increase of 25.4% compared to the previous year [3]. - The company’s net asset return (ROE) is expected to be 13.7% in 2023, declining to 11.1% in 2024 before gradually increasing to 13.9% by 2027 [3][6]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to decrease from 66.69 in 2023 to 48.20 by 2027 [3][6]. Market Trends - Small and medium-sized banks and non-bank financial institutions are expected to grow at a rate faster than the overall market, with significant contributions to the company's revenue [11]. - The integration of AI into financial services is anticipated to create a surge in demand for digital intelligence and fintech applications, positioning the company to capitalize on this trend [12]. - The company has established a strong presence in the cryptocurrency sector, which may provide new opportunities in the stablecoin market, particularly in Hong Kong [13].

Group 1 - Circle's stock surged 19% in the US market, reflecting global recognition of stablecoin compliance development, which is beneficial for China's Xinchuang (information technology application innovation) industry [1] - Circle's collaboration with domestic Xinchuang companies has resulted in practical applications, such as a blockchain-based cross-border payment system developed with Dongxin HePing, certified by the central bank and piloted in six cities [1][2] - The integration of Circle's USDC stablecoin technology with domestic blockchain solutions is expected to accelerate the application of Xinchuang technology in cross-border payments and digital identity in Southeast Asia [1][2] Group 2 - The Xinchuang industry is accelerating the autonomous and controllable process of blockchain technology, with companies like Dongfang Securities completing a full-stack domestic replacement of their blockchain platform [2] - Circle's success validates the feasibility of blockchain technology in finance, promoting domestic Xinchuang companies to iterate on technology architecture and security standards [2] - China Mobile's "Zhongyi Chain" achieved a transaction throughput of over 56,000 CTPS in a trusted blockchain performance evaluation, setting a benchmark for high-concurrency applications [2] Group 3 - Circle's application in cross-border payments aligns with China's strategy to internationalize the digital yuan, with the central bank establishing an international operation center for the digital yuan [3] - The efficiency of Circle's USDC in cross-border settlements provides a reference model for the digital yuan, which is expected to reach a cross-border payment amount of 64.1 trillion yuan in 2024 [3] - The market enthusiasm for Circle may further encourage policy support for cross-border scenarios of the digital yuan, benefiting payment system service providers and financial IT companies within the Xinchuang industry chain [3] Group 4 - Chinese policies explicitly support blockchain technology breakthroughs, with initiatives like Beijing's "reveal the list and take the lead" mechanism promoting the construction of the Xinchuang chain technology ecosystem [4] - Circle's compliance path offers a reference for domestic regulation, potentially accelerating the exploration of stablecoin-related technologies within the Xinchuang framework [4] - As of June 30, the digital currency concept stocks accounted for over 15% of the Xinchuang ETF fund's index, indicating significant investment interest in this area [4] Group 5 - The Xinchuang industry is transitioning from policy-driven to a dual-driven approach of policy and market, with significant growth expected in the financial and energy sectors [6] - The market scale is projected to grow at rates of 17.84% and 26.82% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, surpassing 2.6 trillion yuan by 2026 [6] - The expansion of special national bonds and the implementation of debt reduction plans provide funding support for Xinchuang procurement [6] Group 6 - The Xinchuang ETF fund (562030) tracks the CSI Xinchuang Index, covering core segments of the Xinchuang industry chain, which is characterized by high growth and elasticity [7] - The current geopolitical environment and the urgent need for self-control drive the development of the Xinchuang sector, supported by government initiatives [7] - The upcoming key time nodes for Xinchuang advancement and the refinement of procurement standards are expected to enhance market dynamics [7]

大家好欢迎参加国金金融工程拆GBT6.YPR稳定币产业链与零涨股目前所有参会者均处于静音状态下面开始播放面子声明声明完毕后主持人可以开始发言本次电话会议仅面向国金证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户仅供交流研究观点专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点会议内容并不构成对任何人的投资建议未经国金证券事先书面许可 任何机构或个人严禁以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布转发转载传播复制编辑修改解读等涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 各位投资者大家下午好我是国际证券及应用工程组研究员胡振扬本次电话会议的主题主要是介绍一下稳定币它的产业链的情况以及相关投资标的一个情况 那么结算的时间的话也是能够加快到一分钟计的这样的一个速度那么同时呢稳定币也是能够推动比方说像这种资产代币化这样的一些方面的一些进展能够带来一些新的投资机会那所以说稳定币产业链的话也是受到了这个其中市场的一个关注 我们团队的话就是针对稳定币去进行的这个产业链图谱以及概念股的一个自动的生成就是使用我们刚刚那一套agent的一个模型那么我们这次就是从这个模型角度出发首先给出稳定币产业链的一个图谱的一个结果再同时给到这个概念股的一个相关标的的情 ...

Core Insights - Stablecoins are becoming the "core infrastructure of global trade," with RDA (Real Data Assetization) expected to be a highly explosive direction [1][5] - The National Financial Development Research Center has proposed that Shanghai and Hong Kong will simultaneously launch offshore RMB stablecoin pilot programs to break through regulatory constraints [3] - Shanghai is anticipated to become a major support for Hong Kong, allowing the stablecoin market to expand from an initial scale of 1.8 trillion yuan to several tens of trillions [4] RDA and Digital Assetization - RDA is a unique model developed in China, focusing on the value of operational data from physical assets, making data tradable and financeable [5] - The Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has explicitly requested the promotion of asset digitalization, positioning RDA as the core direction for stablecoin data infrastructure [6] Key Companies Expected to Experience Explosive Growth - The first company is Tuolsi, a leader in NLP technology, which excels in extracting value from unstructured data and provides RDA processing services for financial institutions, holding a first-mover advantage in the data assetization field [7][8] - The second company is Annie Co., a leader in copyright confirmation in China, utilizing blockchain notarization technology to ensure the credibility and security of RDA, possessing a strong competitive moat in the data asset confirmation sector [9] - The third company is a leading "dark horse" in the stablecoin and RDA space, leveraging "blockchain + digital watermark" technology to establish a comprehensive data confirmation and traceability system, ranking among the top tier in RDA packaging. It has received strategic support from the Shanghai Data Exchange and the Central Bank Digital Currency Research Institute, aiming to challenge the pricing power of US dollars in commodity markets. Recently, social security funds and foreign institutions have collectively increased their holdings by 10 million shares, indicating strong institutional confidence [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [37]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the positive outlook for financial IT and cross-border payment companies due to the recent policy developments in stablecoins, RDA, and CIPS, which are expected to enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and improve transparency in cross-border payments and settlements [1][4][21]. - The stablecoin market is diversifying, with various participants including fintech companies and traditional banks, which is likely to enhance the credibility and application scenarios of stablecoins [13][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market," with expectations of better performance compared to the benchmark index [37]. Company Dynamics - Jiuyuan Yinhai expects to achieve revenue of 414-454 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5%-15%, with net profit expected to grow significantly by 130%-180% [3]. - Inspur Information plans to repurchase its A-shares with a total fund of no less than 200 million yuan and no more than 300 million yuan, with an expected repurchase price not exceeding 75.59 yuan per share [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Runhe Software, Nantian Information, Borui Data, Huichen Shares, Digital Government, and Jiuyuan Yinhai, which are expected to benefit from the developments in stablecoins and related technologies [4][21]. Policy Developments - Recent policies in regions like Hong Kong and Shanghai are aimed at promoting the development of stablecoins and their applications, including the issuance of tokenized government bonds and enhancing the management mechanisms for cross-border payment systems [15][18][21]. - The introduction of the RDA paradigm by the Shanghai Data Exchange emphasizes the importance of data in verifying the authenticity and enhancing the value of real-world assets [20][21]. Market Trends - The stablecoin market is expanding into real-world applications, particularly in cross-border payments, B2B payments, and asset tokenization, which are expected to grow rapidly [14][21]. - The report notes that the development of stablecoins will increase the demand for system upgrades and related services from financial IT companies [21].

周一（7月14日）， 稳定币、跨境支付等热门概念股集体下挫，金融科技板块新高后深度回调超2.5%， 十只成份股跌超5%。其中，大智慧跌停，中科金财、长亮科技、京北方等多股跌逾8%。值得注意的 是，楚天龙尾盘由水下急速翻红涨停，表明部分资金做多情绪仍较浓，或为博弈后续反包行情，古鳌科 技、拓尔思两股也逆市涨逾5%。 热门ETF方面，规模、流动性同类断层第一的金融科技ETF（159851）全天走弱，场内一度下探近4%， 收盘跌幅缩窄至2.64%下穿五日线。交投方面，受份额拆分降低交易门槛事件影响，159851全天成交额 超9亿元，在市场整体缩量下交投情绪仍相对高涨。金融科技行情深度回调之际资金逆行重仓买入，全 天净申购5.67亿份。 从中长期投资机会看，华西证券指出，全球政策共振，建议继续关注相关产业链机会。消息面上，7月 10日，上海市国资委党委召开中心组学习会，围绕加密货币与稳定币的发展趋势及应对策略开展学习， 华西证券认为，继海外及香港稳定币政策相继出台后，国内政策出台预期有望强化。 分析来看，稳定币、跨境支付短期波动调整或受一则利空消息影响。消息面上，近期北京、深圳等多地 监管部门针对稳定币炒作风险发布提 ...