格隆汇1月2日 | 入选逻辑：英伟达不仅是AI时代的"卖铲人",更是定义AI计算标准的"总设计师";拥 有"CUDA软件+GPU硬件+Networking网络"的软硬一体化护城河，难以被逾越；受益于全球云巨头资本 开支(CapEx)指数级增长及Blackwell/Rubin新平台的选代。 H 哈隆汇 - DEALER TO NVDA) 核心入选逻辑 历史地位:如同PC时代的英特尔、移动时代的苹果,Al时代属于英伟达 缩放定律(Scaling Laws):预训练、后训练和推理的算力需求持续验证"良性循环" (算力普及->模型更强->应用落地->更多算力) 基建规模:CEO黄仁勋预测,到2030年全球AI基础设施年建设规模将达3-4万亿美元 "军备竞赛" 五大云厂商 总设计师地位:英伟达不仅是Al时代的"卖铲人",更是定义Al计算标准的"总设计师" 生态壁垒:拥有"CUDA软件+GPU硬件+Networking网络"的软硬一体化护城河,难以被逾越 业绩确定性:受益于全球云巨头资本开支(CapEx)指数级增长及Blackwell/Rubin新平台的迭代 2025年五大云厂商 (微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊、甲骨文) ...

AI正在重塑全球经济的底层逻辑——标普500指数75%的涨幅、80%的利润、90%的资本开支都直接源于AI产业。 在这场颠覆性浪潮中，英伟达（NVDA）早已超越"AI芯片龙头"的单一标签，从AI时代的"卖铲人"进化为定义算力规则、垄断产业命脉的"总设计师"。 从1999年IPO时仅6.26亿美元的市值，到如今一度突破5万亿美元，26年间8000倍的涨幅、约40%的年化回报率，英伟达用实打实的成长证明：每一次计算 时代的更迭，都会诞生一位无可撼动的王者。 PC时代属于英特尔，移动互联网时代属于高通和苹果，而AI时代，注定是英伟达的主场。 01 算力革命的核心：为什么非英伟达不可？ 英伟达的行业统治力，并非偶然的产品成功，而是技术、生态、需求三重共振的必然结果，构筑起对手难以企及的竞争壁垒，成为AI基建狂潮中无可替 代的核心。 1.需求端：指数级爆发的算力缺口，五大云厂商"军备竞赛"托底 AI的本质是算力的较量，而当前算力需求正以指数级速度爆发。 根据英伟达FY26Q3电话会披露，预训练、后训练、推理三大缩放定律依然有效，形成了"计算资源普及→更先进模型诞生→应用场景落地→催生更多算力 需求"的良性循环。 这一循 ...

European stocks are seen opening mixed on the first trading day of 2026 on Friday, following the New Year's Day holiday.U.S. equity futures ticked higher after the major indexes fell for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to wrap up 2025. But full-year performance was robust, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rallying by 20.4 percent for the year, the S&P 500 surging by 16.4 percent and the Dow adding 13.0 percent amid the euphoria around AI-linked stocks.Closer home, the Stoxx 600 index soared 17 p ...

Core Insights - Wall Street's first IPO of the year is the successful listing of Birran Technology on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking it as the first GPU stock in the Hong Kong market with an opening price of HKD 19.60 per share and a market capitalization exceeding HKD 100 billion [1][2] Company Overview - Birran Technology was founded in 2019 by Harvard PhD Zhang Wen, who transitioned from Wall Street to entrepreneurship, focusing on the GPU chip sector [2][4] - The company has attracted significant investment interest, with 23 top-tier investment institutions planning to subscribe for HKD 28.99 billion, achieving a remarkable subscription rate of over 2300 times [2] Technological Development - Birran Technology has adopted a challenging technical route, aiming to develop large GPGPU chips that compete with next-generation products from international giants [6][9] - The company successfully launched its first general-purpose GPU chip, the BR100 series, in March 2022, achieving a peak computing power of 10 petaflops per second, directly competing with NVIDIA's flagship products [7][9] Financial Performance - The revenue trajectory of Birran Technology shows significant growth, with revenues of RMB 0.499 million in 2022, RMB 0.62 billion in 2023, and projected revenues of RMB 3.37 billion in 2024 [9] - The company has secured substantial orders, with a total value of approximately RMB 20 billion from various sectors, including telecommunications and AI data centers [15][16] Market Position and Future Outlook - The Chinese intelligent computing chip market is projected to grow from USD 1.7 billion in 2020 to USD 30.1 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 105% [15] - Birran Technology's strategic positioning and technological advancements are expected to play a crucial role in the domestic GPU market, which is increasingly moving towards self-sufficiency and reducing reliance on imports [16][17]

格隆汇1月2日｜美股2025年行情收官，受益于人工智能(AI)技术的全面爆发，大型科技股年内走势强 劲。"七巨头"中以谷歌母公司Alphabet升幅最大，全年累涨近66%，是自2009年金融危机以来涨幅最大 的一年。其次是英伟达，全年累计升幅38.92%，总市值达4.53万亿美元，稳居美股市值第一宝座。另 外，微软、Meta Platforms及特斯拉均录得两位数升幅，分别为15.58%、13.09%及11.36%，而苹果及亚 马逊升幅相比较小，分别为9.05%及5.21%。 | | | 2025年美股"七巨头"表现 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 个股名称 | 累计涨幅 | 总市值(美元) | | 1 | 谷歌A | 65.99% | 3.78万亿 | | 2 | 英伟达 | 38.92% | 4.53万亿 | | 3 | 微软 | 15.58% | 3.59万亿 | | 4 | Meta Platforms | 13.09% | 1.66万亿 | | 5 | 特斯拉 | 11.36% | 1.5万亿 | | 6 | 苹果 | 9.05% | 4.02万亿 | | ...

Core Insights - Walt Disney is undergoing a significant transformation in the media industry, with its linear TV business declining as streaming services gain dominance. Despite challenges, Disney's streaming business is performing well, and the company continues to lead at the box office with several potential blockbusters planned for 2026. However, the future of the movie theater business remains uncertain [1][9]. Group 1: Company Performance - Disney's experiences segment, which includes its parks and cruise ships, generated $36 billion in revenue and nearly $10 billion in operating profit in fiscal 2025, showcasing the strength of its intellectual property and franchises like Marvel and Star Wars [5]. - The stock is currently trading at around 17 times fiscal 2025 earnings, with expectations of double-digit EPS growth in fiscal 2026 and 2027, indicating that the valuation may be attractive given the value of Disney's media properties [7]. Group 2: Industry Context - The media industry is shifting, with streaming services becoming increasingly important, which may pressure Disney's results in the near term. However, the company has a history of adaptation and is expected to navigate these changes successfully [6][9]. - Warner Bros. Discovery, a competitor, is likely to be acquired for at least $72 billion, highlighting the value of content and intellectual property in the industry, which is a strong point for Disney as well [4].

Investors are becoming increasingly aware of these companies' AI abilities.Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks have sent the market higher, as some stocks in this part of the tech industry have brought outsized gains to numerous investors. Palantir's gain of more than 32-fold from its low in 2022 is one notable example.The best part of the AI story is that it has probably just begun. Grand View Research forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% through 2033.That probably means other stocks hold ...

前几天，一个炒股的朋友跑来问我："英伟达是不是不行了？像是四面楚歌了。谷歌有TPU，OpenAI有 Triton，华为有昇腾，AMD也在后面追着喊'兄弟，等等我'。" 我说你先别急着替英伟达写悼词。你这问题，暴露了一个常见毛病：很多人把"护城河"理解成知识产 权、渠道、品牌、规模、网络效应、用户认知——这些都对，但在硬科技领域，它们往往只是"表面那 层漆"。真正能挡人的，是一种不体面、没有浪漫气息、写出来甚至有点像在给加班洗白的东西：工程 积淀。 工程积淀是什么？ 它不是某个天才的灵光一现，更不是一纸专利。它更像是：你在一条路上走了二十年，沿途遇到几十万 个坑。每个坑都不大，但都很贵、很烦、很脏。你填完一个坑，前面又冒出一个坑。你一边填坑一边骂 街，一边还得保证车继续跑。最后这条路就成了高速公路——别人也想走，但他们要先把二十年的坑补 齐。 这类东西有两个特点：数量巨大，无法预测。 英伟达的护城河里，最硬的两块石头，大概是：CUDA和NVLink（以及它背后的整套集群网络能 力）。 先说CUDA。 CUDA最大的优势不是"先进"，而是"习惯"。习惯这东西很要命。你要让全世界工程师换生态，就像你 要让全世界改用 ...

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is highlighted as a leading investment opportunity in the AI sector, with strong growth potential despite its already significant market position. Group 1: Company Overview - TSMC is the world's largest foundry, holding approximately 72% of the global foundry market share by revenue as of Q3 2025, with Samsung as the closest competitor at 7% [5] - The company has a market capitalization of $1.6 trillion, with a current stock price of $303.88 and a gross margin of 57.75% [6] Group 2: Market Position and Growth - TSMC has increased its market share from 65% in mid-2024 amid rising demand for AI chips, indicating its strong competitive position [6] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from Nvidia's substantial order backlog of $500 billion, which is likely to drive TSMC's revenue growth [9][12] Group 3: Financial Metrics - TSMC's price-to-earnings ratio is just under 30 times the full-2025 earnings estimates, with analysts projecting an average earnings growth of nearly 29% annually over the next three to five years [13] - The price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of approximately 1 suggests that TSMC is attractively valued at its current price, making it a compelling investment [14] Group 4: Strategic Partnerships - TSMC has a close partnership with Nvidia, which is crucial for the production of advanced graphics processing units (GPUs), including upcoming architectures like Rubin [8][11]

文 |无言 2025年圣诞前夜，英伟达扔出个重磅消息：花200亿获取AI芯片初创公司Groq的技术授权，还把对方首 席执行官在内的核心高管全挖了过来。 这可是英伟达史上最大一笔交易，金额差不多抵得上过去所有并购案的总和。 本来想觉得这钱花得冤，毕竟Groq成立才9年，算个行业小字辈，但后来发现里面全是门道。 200亿交易不简单：非收购是巧招 这笔交易的模式挺耐人寻味。它不是完全收购，而是非排他性技术授权加人才挖角。 有媒体说这是资产收购，但更多报道都谨慎强调了"技术授权"这个核心。 为啥要这么操作？很显然，是为了避开反垄断审查。 英伟达现在市值快摸到3.5万亿美元，体量摆在这，监管机构盯着它的每一个大动作。 要是直接全收购，大概率会触发审查红线，反而耽误事。 200亿买的不只是技术，还有整个团队的经验和专利。 尤其是Groq的创始人，他可是谷歌TPU的创始人之一。 这人对AI芯片架构的理解，怕是硅谷没几个工程师能比。 把他挖过来，相当于从谷歌阵营撬走了关键人物。 这种操作既拿到了核心技术，又网罗了顶尖人才，还规避了风险，不得不说想得挺周全。 LPU凭啥值天价？技术卡准关键点 Groq的核心产品是LPU，也就是 ...