转自：新华财经 新华财经上海1月13日电（记者高少华）近日，"一盒内存条堪比上海一套房"的消息登上多个平台热搜。业内人士认为，当前全球AI需求快速增长造成高端 存储需求暴涨，存储芯片厂商将产能转移至高毛利产品，导致传统电子产品使用的存储芯片供需失衡，由此造成内存价格因短缺而持续上涨。存储行业正由 单一容量驱动向"算力密度 + 带宽密度"协同驱动阶段演进。 2026年存储市场继续上演涨价潮 "存储作为人工智能建设的核心器件，能够得到稳定供应对于整个数据中心技术规划至关重要。"何晖表示，由于上游供应商越来越多转向高毛利的内存产 品，传统电子产品如个人计算机、手机、消费电子产品等使用的内存供应出现严重缺口，市场报价也不断攀升，长期在硬件产品端处于低毛利的代工厂商承 压显著。 自2025年以来全球存储市场迎来周期性涨价潮。进入2026年，市场依然呈现持续上涨趋势。 研究机构TrendForce集邦咨询的数据显示，2026年第一季度由于存储芯片原厂大规模转移先进制程，将新产能转至服务器、高带宽内存（HBM）应用，以满 足人工智能服务器需求，导致其他市场供给严重紧缩，预估一般型内存产品合约价将季度增长55%至60%；闪存 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 国际数据公司（IDC）发布了最新的设备市场展望报告，其结论直言不讳：情况正在恶化。在最新公 布的悲观预测情景下，2026年个人电脑出货量可能下降高达9%，而较为温和的预测情景则显示市场 萎缩幅度为5%。这些数据较IDC 11月份发布的2.5%的降幅有所修正。 自10月中旬加速恶化开始，全球内存短缺问题的程度已经超过了IDC最初的预测。虽然该公司并未正 式完全修改其官方预测，但其目前提出的情景明显比几周前的预测更为悲观。 其根本驱动力与2025年末席卷科技行业的诸多因素相同：人工智能基础设施。超大规模数据中心对内 存的需求激增，导致DRAM和NAND闪存的生产重心从消费级设备转向高利润的企业级组件，例如高 带宽内存和高密度DDR5内存。对于内存制造商而言，这是一个经济上合理的选择，但IDC明确指 出，这并非典型的繁荣与萧条周期；而是硅产能的战略性重新配置，其影响可能持续数年而非数个季 度。 对于智能手机而言，这种影响是真实存在的，但程度并不均衡。内存成本在手机物料清单中占据相当 大的比例，尤其是在利润本就微薄的中端机型中。IDC 警告称，OEM 厂商可能会采取提高 ...

12月18日，三大指数涨跌不一，医药、商业航天等表现较好，电池、半导体产业链有所回调。半导体设备ETF（561980）全天收跌1.97%，但单日获资金净 流入超2700万，实现连续2日吸金超3300万元。 一、【多项权威数据显示半导体仍处上行区间】 消息面上，近日多项权威数据公布，显示本轮半导体周期或仍处上行区间。 大摩分析师与美国银行近日发表最新观点，强调半导体行业的繁荣周期远未结束，全球对人工智能计算能力的无限需求是关键变量。 根据摩根士丹利发布的最新研究报告，在史无前例的AI基建热潮以及传统模拟芯片/MCU强劲去库存步伐推动之下，芯片股的"长期牛市逻辑"或仍然完好无 损。其中，科技巨头们主导的全球AI基础设施建设进程愈发火热，全面助力3nm及以下先进制程芯片扩产与先进封装产能扩张大举加速，半导体设备板块的 长期牛市逻辑仍然坚挺。 此前，全球技术研究咨询机构Omdia发布最新数据显示，2025年第三季度半导体市场表现创历史新高，行业营收达到2163亿美元，环比增长14.5%。 招银国际指出，人工智能正驱动存储行业进入超级结构性周期：从传统周期性供需调整，转向结构性供应紧缺。而高带宽内存在2026-27年向 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the divergence in commodity trends and the continuous growth of high-tech investments in China and the US, with significant performance variations in global stock markets and commodities [8][11]. Global Asset Review - As of December 19, global stock markets showed mixed results, with European markets performing better; major commodities like gold, copper, and aluminum saw price increases, while oil prices declined [11][12]. - The report notes that the UK FTSE 100 outperformed other indices, while the Hang Seng Tech Index and Nikkei 225 faced pressure [11]. - The report indicates that gold prices rose slightly due to expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, while oil prices fell due to concerns over oversupply [12]. Domestic Equity Market Review - In the domestic equity market, financials outperformed other sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 17,410 billion yuan, down from 19,359 billion yuan [18]. - Among the 31 sectors tracked, 19 sectors saw gains, with retail trade (+6.66%), non-bank financials (+2.90%), and beauty care (+2.87%) leading the way, while electronics (-3.28%) and power equipment (-3.12%) lagged [18][19]. Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Tracking - The report notes a continued loose monetary environment, with the central bank conducting reverse repos to maintain liquidity, while the bond market is expected to remain stable amid weak recovery signals [20][22]. - The US bond market showed a cautious decline in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.16%, reflecting mixed signals from employment and inflation data [26][28]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the renminbi, supported by domestic economic resilience and favorable external conditions, with the currency appreciating against the US dollar [30][31]. Commodity Tracking - The report tracks energy commodities, noting that WTI crude oil prices fluctuated around $56.52 per barrel, with US crude oil production increasing year-on-year [32]. - It also highlights the significant drop in liquefied natural gas prices in China, attributed to high inventory levels and weak demand [36].

Core Insights - South Korea's export growth is increasingly reliant on the semiconductor industry, leading to a polarized export structure despite an overall increase in export value [2][3] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a historic boom driven by the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), with chip exports reaching a record $152.6 billion, accounting for 28.3% of total exports [3][5] - There are concerns about the sustainability of this semiconductor boom, as any downturn in the market could significantly impact South Korea's economic stability [3][4] Export Performance - In the first 11 months of the year, South Korea's total exports reached $640.2 billion, a 2.9% year-on-year increase, with only 5 out of 15 flagship export items showing growth [2] - The semiconductor, shipbuilding, and biopharmaceutical sectors saw significant growth rates of 19.8%, 28.6%, and 7% respectively, while other sectors like automotive and computing showed minimal growth [2] - A stark decline was observed in 10 other sectors, with machinery down 8.9%, petroleum products down 11.1%, and petrochemicals down 11.7% [2] Semiconductor Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue expanding, particularly in high-value products like high-bandwidth memory (HBM), but overall export growth is projected to slow from 16.6% this year to 4.7% next year [4] - Analysts have raised profit expectations for major semiconductor companies, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's combined operating profit forecast to approach 200 trillion won [5][6] - The memory semiconductor market is facing a severe supply shortage due to rapidly growing demand, particularly from cloud service providers investing in AI data centers [5] Competitive Landscape - Samsung Electronics is positioned to benefit from its leading DRAM production capacity, while SK Hynix is expected to see significant profit improvements despite facing stricter capacity expansion limitations [6] - The demand for high-bandwidth memory is anticipated to surge as major tech companies develop custom AI chips, further driving growth in the semiconductor sector [6][8]

Group 1: Economic Downturn - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a negative feedback loop characterized by declining income, shrinking consumption, and weak employment[2] - Since the beginning of the year, a noticeable cyclical downturn has emerged, with key indicators such as employment, consumption, and services showing continuous decline[3] - The consumer confidence index has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, with the Michigan consumer sentiment index at 50.3[27] Group 2: Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has lasted 43 days, surpassing the previous record of 35 days in December 2018[28] - The shutdown has led to approximately $24 billion in federal spending being paused, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a 2% decline in U.S. economic growth for Q4[4] - The shutdown has also caused liquidity tightening in financial markets, contributing to a significant drop in risk assets such as gold, Bitcoin, and U.S. stocks[32] Group 3: Structural Distortions from AI Investment - There is a clear "K-shaped" divergence in U.S. exports, with AI-related sectors performing exceptionally well while traditional consumer goods exports continue to weaken[36] - AI investments have led to a surge in demand for semiconductors and related infrastructure, with Taiwan's exports to the U.S. increasing by 144.3% in October[36] - The reliance on AI has created a structural dependency that may increase long-term financial system vulnerabilities, as any fluctuations in AI could trigger broader economic disruptions[45]

Core Insights - The Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) has issued a warning regarding the overvaluation of technology and AI-driven stocks, indicating a potential market correction if optimism about AI's future returns reverses [1][2] - The recent sell-off in global semiconductor stocks, which saw a market cap loss of approximately $500 billion, underscores the urgency of MAS's warning [1] - Regulatory actions in both South Korea and Singapore reflect heightened vigilance towards market overheating and potential bubbles in the tech sector [3] Valuation and Earnings Discrepancy - MAS highlights a significant disconnect between stock valuations and actual earnings growth, with forward P/E ratios for major tech companies rising to 23 times, compared to 14 times in April, while earnings expectations have only increased by 13% [2] - The report suggests that much of the stock price increase is driven by valuation expansion rather than profit growth, raising concerns about a potential bubble [2] - Some AI companies are under pressure due to novel financing arrangements, which may lead to financial strain if revenue growth does not meet expectations [2] Regulatory Warnings - The issuance of a "cautionary investment alert" by the Korean Exchange for SK Hynix is seen as a rare move, indicating regulatory concern over irrational market exuberance [3] - Such alerts serve as a signal for investors to exercise caution during significant price fluctuations, reflecting a proactive approach by regulators [3] Broader Macro Risks - MAS's report also addresses potential risks in other markets, including concerns over high public debt levels affecting sovereign bond markets and rising corporate credit risks indicated by recent credit losses in private credit funds [4] - The authority is also monitoring the Singapore real estate market to ensure stability and sustainability in the private housing sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean Exchange issued a "cautionary investment alert" for SK Hynix due to its stock price surge, indicating potential overheating in the stock [3][10]. Group 1: Stock Performance - SK Hynix's stock price has surged nearly 240% this year, significantly outperforming the KOSPI index by more than three times [3][6]. - Following the cautionary alert, SK Hynix's stock dropped 5.4% on Tuesday, marking its largest decline in three weeks [1][3]. Group 2: Exchange's Cautionary Measures - The issuance of a cautionary alert by the South Korean Exchange is rare and triggered by sudden or unexplained large fluctuations in stock price or trading volume [1][8]. - The alert serves as a warning for investors to exercise caution but does not immediately halt trading [10]. - If a stock meets certain criteria during the cautionary alert period, such as a 100% increase over three trading days, further warnings or trading restrictions may be implemented [9].

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets have experienced a sudden downturn, influenced by three main factors: a strengthening US dollar, a decline in high-flying assets, and ongoing uncertainties in trade disputes [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - Japanese stock market turned negative with the Nikkei index dropping over 1% [3]. - South Korean KOSPI index fell more than 2%, with a notable 5.3% drop following a significant rise of nearly 11% the previous day [5]. - Australian stock index closed down nearly 1%, showing a breakdown in its downward trend [5]. - Hong Kong and A-share markets also saw increased declines in the afternoon session [1][5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The US dollar index has been strengthening, reaching around the 100 mark, which has pressured equity valuations and high commodity prices [8]. - Recent declines in popular assets, including gold and cryptocurrencies, have intensified profit-taking pressures in the stock market [8]. - Despite signs of easing in global trade disputes, uncertainties remain, particularly as major markets are at historical highs, leading to increased selling pressure [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term volatility is expected due to year-end settlement pressures, but structural opportunities in the market remain [9]. - Data from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the ERP percentile for all A-shares has risen significantly, suggesting better valuation prospects compared to global peers [9]. - The absolute valuation levels of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and Hang Seng Index remain lower than US stocks, indicating potential investment value in the Chinese market [9].

Core Points - The Korea Exchange issued an "investment caution notice" for SK Hynix due to a significant stock price surge, which lasted for one day [2] - SK Hynix's stock dropped by 5.3% on Tuesday, marking the largest decline in three weeks [2] - The stock had previously surged nearly 11% on Monday, with a cumulative increase of approximately 70% for the quarter, outpacing the KOSPI index by more than three times [2] Group 1 - The investment caution notice is a rare alert for large-cap stocks, previously issued for Doosan Co. and Hanwha Ocean Co. [2] - This notice is triggered by sudden or unexplained large fluctuations in stock price or trading volume, serving as a warning for investors to act cautiously [2] - If a stock is under the investment caution notice, it indicates compliance with one of eight criteria, such as a 100% price increase within three trading days [2] Group 2 - If a stock experiences a 40% increase over two trading days, trading will be suspended for one day [2] - The investment caution notice serves as a pre-warning before a higher-level alert is triggered, which would restrict margin trading [2]