Market Overview - As of February 6, 2026, the China Petroleum Industry Index (H11057) rose by 2.00%, with key stocks such as Zhejiang Longsheng up 6.18%, Hengyi Petrochemical up 5.01%, and Rongsheng Petrochemical up 4.93% [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) increased by 1.82%, with a latest price of 1.0 yuan and a turnover rate of 10.86% during the trading session [1] - The Petrochemical ETF attracted a total of 1.447 billion yuan in inflows over the past 20 trading days [1] Key News - The previous trading day saw fuel oil prices fluctuate upwards, closing above the moving average. In the Singapore fuel oil spot market, PetroChina and BP purchased three ships of 20,000 tons each of 380cst high-sulfur fuel oil from Sinopec, Shell, and Canon for loading between February 19-23 [2] - The PVC main contract fell by 2.18%, with spot prices decreasing by 40-50 yuan/ton. The price trend and inventory depletion speed depend on the recovery of demand post-Spring Festival. If downstream projects like infrastructure can effectively start, inventory pressure may gradually ease [2] - As of the end of January 2026, domestic PVC social inventory was 1.2064 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.45% and a year-on-year increase of 60.54% [2] Global Refining Activity - As of the week ending February 6, global refinery shutdowns totaled approximately 5.4 million barrels per day, a decrease of about 880,000 barrels per day from the previous week, primarily driven by the resumption of activities in Asia [3] - Future global refinery shutdowns are expected to slightly decrease to just above 5 million barrels per day, largely dependent on the restart timing of the Dangote refinery, a key uncertainty in Africa [3] Geopolitical Focus - The situation in Iran is under market scrutiny, with plans for continued negotiations and a significant decrease in the probability of U.S. actions against Iran, leaving Iranian oil supply and the Strait of Hormuz unaffected [3] - The Russia-Ukraine situation shows no significant progress in ceasefire agreements, with ongoing negotiations under pressure from sanctions and reduced Indian purchases affecting Russia's financial position [3] Institutional Insights - CICC believes that the next expected turning point in the oil market may be the production peak of U.S. shale oil, with potential for substantial improvement in market oversupply in the second half of the year, which could provide marginal cost guidance and upward price movement opportunities [4] Popular ETFs - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) track the China Petroleum Industry Index, focusing on "big energy" security logic. They not only share profits from downstream chemical products but also secure upstream resource value through high allocations to leading refining companies, demonstrating stronger performance resilience during oil price upcycles [5]

格隆汇2月9日｜中金研报称，大宗商品是全球资金多元化的受益资产，当前能源、化工等多品种的估值 与成本或已在偏底部区间，尽管短期波动加大，但由AI算力扩张与能源转型驱动的刚性需求，以及部 分品种的结构性供需缺口并未发生实质性变化，我们认为大宗商品的结构行情可能尚未结束。中金策略 大类资产团队认为凯文·沃什上任后的决策可能受到多重制约，短期内大幅缩表的概率不高，美联储未 必如市场担忧那样彻底转鹰。综上所述，我们认为随着短期情绪释放与交易拥挤度明显下降，相关资源 股行情并未结束，历经短期调整后中期有望重拾升势。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that commodities are benefiting from global capital diversification, with current valuations in energy and chemicals potentially at the lower end of the range, despite increased short-term volatility [1] - The demand driven by AI computational expansion and energy transition, along with structural supply-demand gaps for certain commodities, has not changed significantly, indicating that the structural market for commodities may not be over [1] - The strategy team at CICC believes that Kevin Warsh's decisions may face multiple constraints, making significant balance sheet reduction unlikely in the short term, and the Federal Reserve may not turn as hawkish as the market fears [1] Group 2 - As short-term sentiment releases and trading congestion decreases, the market for related resource stocks is not over, and after a short-term adjustment, there is potential for a mid-term rebound [1]

2025年，大宗商品市场呈现明显分化。受AI算力扩张、电力基建需求升温及地缘风险影响，贵金属与工业金属显著走强：黄金、白银全年涨幅分别高达 67%和149%；LME铜、铝亦分别上涨44%和18%并在一定程度上推动A股有色金属板块表现强势。与之相对，能源与农产品偏弱，Brent原油与CBOT大豆 分别下跌18%和3%。2026年初，有色金属与部分化工品延续涨势，A股石油石化、有色金属、基础化工、建材等周期板块一度表现亮眼。但近两周，受前 期交易拥挤度高以及美联储主席提名落地等因素扰动，贵金属、工业金属市场及A股相关板块均出现大幅波动。本文回顾过去20年四轮商品升势与A股的 联动，简析商品周期在A股市场的映射机制。 过去四轮商品行情与A股联动复盘 过去几次商品行情通常源于供需错配与货币环境的共振。 其核心逻辑在于全球经济复苏，带动需求快速回升，而供给端因前期长期资本开支不足、产能 扩张滞后，在需求反弹时缺乏弹性，导致阶段性供不应求。这一基本面格局往往伴随宽信用周期，美元走弱、通胀上行，吸引大量资金涌入，放大商品价 格涨幅。除供需与流动性外，地缘冲突带来的避险需求、极端天气引发的供给扰动等非基本面因素，也可能推动商 ...

来源：基本面力场 最近有一家公司正在申请于北交所IPO，公司全称是河南嘉晨智能控制股份有限公司，股票简称嘉晨智 能（874302.NQ），保荐机构为中金公司（601995.SH），保荐代表人为杨曦、魏德俊。 嘉晨智能的核心产品是车辆运动控制及智能网联系统，电机驱动控制、整车控制和智能网联是三大子系 统，产品主要应用于工业车辆，杭叉集团（603298.SH）一直稳居第一大客户，2025上半年对这一客户 的销售占比高达36.12%。 业绩方面，近两年表现不错，2024年和2025年收入增幅都不大，仅分别为1.39%和5.08%，但同期净利 润的增幅比收入的增幅高，分别为16.44%和24.15%。今年上半年预计仍将保持增长，营业收入将同比 增长7.12%至12.34%，净利润同比10.48%至15.65%。 大体情况就是这样，但是力场君并不觉得这是一个能够放心投资的公司，特别是近期见到百亿亏损的闻 泰科技（维权）（600745.SH），以及守住不境外核心资产的天齐锂业（002466.SZ）等案例之后，更对 嘉晨智能面对的供应商依赖的风险，更加担忧了。 对此，在《审核问询函的回复》第110页披露：公司生产所使用的外 ...

刷短视频弹出"投资稳定币保本保息"的诱人广告,亲友群里转发"海外理财捷径",朋友圈看到"资产代币化 能躺着赚钱"……近年来,虚拟货币等炒作交易活动变换马甲、更新套路,不断将黑手伸向百姓"钱袋子"。 2月6日,中国人民银行等8部门联合发文,明确在境内虚拟货币相关业务活动属于非法金融活动,禁止境内 开展现实世界资产(RWA)代币化活动,进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险,合力保障人民群众财产安 全。 涉及虚拟货币的 业务活动坚决取缔 如今,虚拟货币市场"过山车"行情已呈常态:2025年10月创出每枚超12万美元价格高点的比特币,2026年2 月已跌破每枚7万美元,部分"空气币"更是单日波动幅度超20%。这期间引发多次大规模杠杆交易爆仓,数 百亿美元在一夜间"灰飞烟灭"。 此次发布的政策和此前一以贯之。兑换业务、信息中介、定价服务、代币发行融资……这些涉及虚拟货 币的业务活动被严格禁止、坚决取缔,监管力度只紧不松。 近年来,稳定币成为全球市场关注重点。近期,虚拟货币价格波动较大,一些稳定币也出现暴跌、脱钩,让市 场看到稳定币其实并不"稳定"。 此次通知对稳定币作出了清晰判断:挂钩法定货币的稳定币在流通使用中变相履行 ...

2月7日，中国人民银行、中国证监会等八部门联合发布《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的 通知》（以下简称《通知》），严格对虚拟货币、现实世界资产（RWA）代币化相关活动的监管。 《通知》首次明确RWA代币化"境内严禁、境外严管"的监管原则。中国证监会配套发布《关于境内资 产境外发行资产支持证券代币的监管指引》（以下简称《指引》），明确以境内资产所有权、收益权等 （以下统称"境内权益"）为基础在境外开展类资产证券化的RWA代币化业务需事前备案，即实施严格 的"备案制"，明确负面清单，划定清晰"红线"，并强化持续监管，防范风险。 中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，这一规定既可以规范RWA发行的整 体行为，降低各类欺诈风险，还能够补齐对资金内外流动的监管漏洞，防范跨境非法集资、资金逃避监 管非法流入或流出等行为。 填补监管漏洞 RWA代币化主要是指使用加密技术及分布式账本或类似技术，将资产的所有权、收益权等转化为代币 （通证）或者具有代币（通证）特性的其他权益、债券凭证，并进行发行和交易的活动。 实施严格的"备案制" 《指引》明确了对境内企业赴境外开展类资产证券化的RWA代币化业务实施 ...

Primary Market - A total of 7 offshore bonds were issued by Chinese entities this week, including 6 USD bonds and 1 HKD bond, with a total issuance scale of 1.64955 billion USD [1] - The largest single issuance was 500 million USD by China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., with the highest coupon rate at 10.5% issued by China West Cement Limited [1] Secondary Market - The yield on Chinese USD bonds mostly increased this week, with the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD bond composite index rising by 0.14% to 252.73 [2] - The investment-grade USD bond index increased by 0.18% to 245.64, while the high-yield USD bond index decreased by 0.19% to 244.05 [2] - The real estate USD bond index fell by 0.34% to 181.23, while the city investment USD bond index rose by 0.18% to 155.1 [2] Benchmark Spread - The spread between 10-year US and Chinese government bonds narrowed to 240.4 basis points, a decrease of 2.7 basis points from the previous week [3] Rating Changes - On February 2, Fitch confirmed the long-term issuer rating of "BBB-" for Luoyang Guosheng Investment Holding Group, changing the outlook from "stable" to "negative" [5] - On February 4, Moody's assigned a first-time long-term issuer rating of "A2" to China Jianyin Investment Limited, with a "negative" outlook [5] Domestic News - The first public bond issued by the Hong Kong branch of the China Development Bank was successfully listed on MOX, totaling 5.5 billion RMB, with a 3-year bond at a coupon rate of 1.75% and a 5-year bond at 1.85% [6] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need to support the resolution of debt risks for financing platforms and to enhance financial support for key areas such as technology and green finance [7] - Since January 2026, 14 brokerages have received approval for bond issuance, totaling over 310 billion RMB [8] Offshore Bond Alerts - Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group announced a tender offer to repurchase 310 million USD of offshore bonds, with a redemption notice for all remaining bonds to be issued by February 25 [10] - Luoyang Guojin Industrial Investment Group plans to issue its first offshore bond, with a proposed amount not exceeding 200 million USD [11] - Longguang Holdings failed to repay bank loans and trust loans totaling 41.2196 billion RMB as of January 31 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a notice regarding the overseas issuance and listing of Hefei Chip Qu Microelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd., allowing the company to issue up to 26,735,650 overseas listed ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3][4]. Company Overview - Hefei Chip Qu Microelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd. was established in 2015 and is a global leader in the direct imaging lithography industry, providing core equipment for the advanced information technology industry in the AI era [4]. - The company specializes in high-precision micro-nano lithography technology and aims to manufacture, sell, and maintain direct imaging and direct write lithography equipment for global customers [4]. Market Position - As of 2024, Chip Qu Micro is the largest supplier of PCB direct imaging equipment globally, holding a market share of 15.0% [6]. - By June 30, 2025, the company is the only one globally with business coverage in PCB, IC substrates, advanced packaging, and mask applications, and is one of only two domestic companies with products covering advanced packaging applications [6]. - The company also has the highest number of global advanced packaging customers as of June 30, 2025 [6].

非银金融 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究报告 《1 月基金新发显著增长，头部券商业 绩预告符合预期 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.2.1 《偏股基金新发同比明显增长，公募 强化基准约束—行业周报》-2026.1.25 《逆周期调节呵护"慢牛"，券商和 保险业务开门红 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.1.18 1 月新开户高增超预期，银保渠道实现开门红 ——行业周报 | 高超（分析师） | 卢崑（分析师） | 张恩琦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn | lukun@kysec.cn | zhangenqi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520050001 | 证书编号：S0790524040002 | 证书编号：S0790125080012 | |  周观点：1 | 月新开户高增超预期，银保渠道实现开门红 | | 保险在个险和银保两端均实现开 ...