格隆汇11月13日｜里昂发表报告指，网易云音乐和腾讯音乐过去一周股价表现落后，因市场忧虑字节跳 动旗下汽水音乐带来的竞争加剧。在用户快速增长的背景下，汽水音乐过去一年在内容及变现策略上保 持一致，没有显著变化。该行认为，由于各平台战略定位及产品差异化，直接爆发正面竞争的风险较 低，重申对网易云音乐和腾讯音乐"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

Core Insights - Tencent Music reported a total revenue of 8.46 billion RMB for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6% and an adjusted net profit of 2.48 billion RMB, up 27.7% year-on-year [1] - The online music service revenue reached 6.97 billion RMB, a 27.2% increase year-on-year, while online music subscription revenue was 4.5 billion RMB, growing 17.2% year-on-year [1] - The average revenue per paid user per month increased from 10.8 RMB in Q3 2024 to 11.9 RMB in Q3 2025 [1] Business Highlights - The company enhanced partnerships with well-known record labels and artists, expanding its comprehensive music library [1] - Collaborations with leading game developers were noted, including a partnership with Tencent Games for the 10th anniversary theme song of "Honor of Kings" and a first-time collaboration with Blizzard Entertainment to introduce 50 classic game soundtracks [1] Financial Metrics - Total costs for Q3 increased by 18.8% to 4.78 billion RMB, primarily due to rising costs associated with offline concerts, IP-related expenses, and advertising agency fees [2] - The gross margin improved from 42.6% in Q3 2024 to 43.5% in Q3 2025, driven by growth in music subscription and advertising service revenues [2] Cash Position - As of September 30, 2025, the company held cash, cash equivalents, time deposits, and short-term investments totaling 36.08 billion RMB [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that Tencent Music's total revenue for Q3 grew by 21% year-on-year to 8.5 billion yuan, exceeding the bank's expectations by 2.8% [1] Revenue Summary - Music subscription revenue increased by 17% year-on-year to 4.5 billion yuan, roughly in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations [1] - The number of paying users rose by 1.3 million quarter-on-quarter, with average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) at 11.9 yuan per month, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [1] Profitability Summary - Adjusted net profit under non-International Financial Reporting Standards grew by 33% year-on-year to 2.4 billion yuan, surpassing Morgan Stanley's expectations by 5.1% [1] - Gross margin stood at 44.6%, down 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily benefiting from strong operating leverage in the music subscription business and the effectiveness of self-produced content [1] Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley is awaiting further insights on future prospects during the earnings conference and has set a target price of $27.5 for its U.S. stock with an "Overweight" rating [1]

Core Insights - Tencent Music reported third-quarter revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the expectation of 2.3 billion yuan due to better-than-expected performance in non-subscription music business [1] - The company adjusted its Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for the next two years, increasing the 2025 estimate by 1.9% to 9.63 billion yuan and decreasing the 2026 estimate by 4.1% to 10.75 billion yuan [1] - The target prices for US and Hong Kong stocks were lowered by 11.6% and 12.7% to $26 and 100 HKD, respectively, both corresponding to a projected P/E ratio of 26 times for 2026 [1] Financial Performance - Third-quarter revenue: 8.46 billion yuan, up 20.6% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit: 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [1] Forecast Adjustments - 2025 Non-IFRS net profit forecast increased by 1.9% to 9.63 billion yuan [1] - 2026 Non-IFRS net profit forecast decreased by 4.1% to 10.75 billion yuan [1] Target Price Adjustments - US stock target price reduced by 11.6% to $26 [1] - Hong Kong stock target price reduced by 12.7% to 100 HKD [1]

该行认为有关忧虑属过份，相信公司增长故事仍大致维持。腾讯音乐与其他平台不同之处，在于独特内 容及对用户的增值服务。公司透过SVIP渗透及更多产品提供，有望实现稳健的ARPU增长，以及进一步 拓展直播娱乐及粉丝经济业务，有利公司整个用户生态圈，并使未来收入来源进一步多元。该行维持对 腾讯音乐"买入"评级，ADR及港股目标价由27美元及106港元下调至25.2美元及99港元。 高盛发表研报指，腾讯音乐第三季度收入及盈利略胜预期，但绩后股价下滑，相信市场忧虑潜在音乐串 流平台竞争，及其对腾讯音乐订阅增长与定价策略的潜在中期影响；以及直播表现业务波动性与低利润 率，或影响明年整体毛利扩张。 ...

该行认为即使腾讯音乐在2026年会短期加大投入，但公司将凭借其稳固的核心内容、用户资产、营运能 力及产业伙伴的竞争力，以丰富的商业化手段及更雄厚的商业化能力持续产生正向的商业化动能。该行 维持对其"买入"评级，美股目标价由27美元下调至24美元，港股目标价由106港元降至94港元。 格隆汇11月13日｜中银国际发表报告指，腾讯音乐第三季总收入按年增长21%，经调整净利润按年增长 33%，分别超出市场预期3%及4%。受益于付费会员数季度净增130万及月均ARPPU按季增长2%至19 元，音乐会员收入按年增长17%，与市场预期一致。按年增长51%的音乐非会员收入继续大超市场预 期，主要由于持续增长的广告、强劲的线下演唱会及艺人周边贡献。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that Tencent Music's Q3 revenue increased by 20.6% year-on-year to 8.46 billion yuan, exceeding both UBS and market expectations by 3.1% and 2.9% respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit rose by 32.6% year-on-year to 2.41 billion yuan, also surpassing UBS and market forecasts by 4% and 3.8% respectively [1] - The management expects continued strong growth in subscription services and new revenue sources driven by SVIP expansion, diversified content, and enhanced user engagement [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue: 8.46 billion yuan, up 20.6% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit: 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit margin: 28.4%, exceeding expectations by approximately 0.3 percentage points [1] Market Reaction and Outlook - UBS anticipates a positive reaction from investors to Tencent Music's better-than-expected performance [1] - Investors are awaiting further details on ARPPU trends, SVIP adoption rates, profit margin outlook, and new business strategies [1] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent Music's US stock with a target price of $30 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market indices are experiencing a decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping over 0.5%, and major ETFs following suit, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) has seen a slight decline, with only a few holdings like BYD rising, while Tencent Music, Kingdee International, Sunny Optical Technology, Kuaishou, Lenovo Group, and Li Auto are leading the losses, with Tencent Music dropping over 11% [1] - High-profile companies such as Tencent and JD.com are set to release their Q3 earnings soon, with Alibaba, Meituan, and Pinduoduo following later in the month, indicating a mixed outlook for large-cap internet stocks [1] Group 2: Company Insights - Goldman Sachs projects that Tencent has the strongest profit outlook among large-cap internet stocks in China, with potential growth in gaming and advertising, and plans to expand into external AI cloud services [1] - Concerns exist among investors regarding Tencent's potential investments in AI and inference costs, which may suppress profit margin improvements, reminiscent of its previous short video investment cycle [1] - Alibaba's cloud business and capital expenditure outlook could be favorable, similar to the strong stock performance seen after earnings releases from Google and Amazon, while its customer management revenue shows steady growth [1] - However, Alibaba's instant retail business has significantly impacted group profits, with investments in this area expected to continue into the December quarter [1] Group 3: Valuation Perspective - Goldman Sachs believes that Tencent and Alibaba's valuations remain attractive compared to global peers, emphasizing Tencent as a key AI application stock and Alibaba's unique full-stack AI capabilities [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.63% as of November 13, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including BYD leading with a 1.69% increase and Tencent Music falling by 11.28% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (159742) dropped by 0.24%, with a latest price of 0.82 HKD, while it saw a cumulative increase of 1.11% over the past week as of November 12, 2025 [1] - The liquidity of the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF showed a turnover of 3.02% with a transaction volume of 139 million HKD, and an average daily transaction volume of 438 million HKD over the past month [1] Group 2 - Quark announced the launch event for its AI glasses, scheduled for November 27, 2025, with the pre-sale of the Quark AI Glasses S1 ranking first in sales during the "Double 11" shopping festival [1] - The Quark AI Glasses S1 integrates Alibaba's Qwen closed-source model and offers various functionalities, including deep integration with core applications like Alipay and Taobao, covering high-frequency use cases such as payment and navigation [1] Group 3 - The upcoming earnings disclosure window for the Hong Kong stock market is significant, with major companies like Tencent, JD.com, and Bilibili set to report their Q3 results, focusing on AI commercialization progress [2] - There has been a net outflow of 3.4 billion HKD from Alibaba as investors avoid potential risks related to its performance amid competition in the food delivery sector [2] - Despite recent market fluctuations, institutions believe the current market trend is not a short-term rebound, with expectations of a steady recovery driven by economic signals and improved global liquidity [2] Group 4 - The latest size of the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF reached 4.513 billion HKD [3] - The ETF's share count reached 5.614 billion, marking a one-year high, with continuous net inflows over the past ten days totaling approximately 49.35 million HKD [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng Tech Index account for 68.89% of the index, including Alibaba, SMIC, and Tencent [4]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains an "Overweight" rating for Tencent Music (01698), projecting revenue growth and adjusted net profit for 2025-2027, with a target price of HKD 96.0 for 2026 based on a 25x PE ratio [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tencent Music achieved revenue of CNY 8.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [1] - Gross margin stood at 43.5%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Operating profit reached CNY 2.71 billion, reflecting a 26.4% year-on-year growth, with an operating margin of 32.0%, up 1.5 percentage points [1] - Adjusted net profit was CNY 2.41 billion, a 32.6% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net margin of 28.4%, up 2.6 percentage points [1] Revenue Drivers - Online music service revenue for Q3 2025 was CNY 6.97 billion, up 27.2% year-on-year, with subscription revenue at CNY 4.5 billion, a 17.2% increase [2] - The number of paying users reached 126 million, a 5.6% year-on-year increase, with a paying penetration rate of 22.8%, up 2.2 percentage points [2] - Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) was CNY 11.9, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [2] - Offline performances, advertising, and peripheral income contributed to a revenue of CNY 2.47 billion, a significant 50.5% year-on-year growth [2] Content and User Engagement - The multilingual music library has been strengthened through contracts with top artists and the introduction of Japanese and Korean ACG labels [3] - Collaborative music projects with games like "Honor of Kings" have produced popular works such as "Tomorrow's Coordinates" [3] - The G-DRAGON concert series expanded to six countries with 14 performances in Q3 2025, enhancing global industry influence [3] - Innovations in membership systems have improved user engagement, with the new advertising membership attracting free users and increasing daily usage time on the platform [3]