昨天下午，2025年上海市民营经济人士理想信念报告会暨主题活动举行。活动以"初心如炬 智创未 来"为主题，旨在为上海民营经济人士搭建思想交流、经验分享的平台。春秋集团党委书记、董事长王 正华，黑湖科技创始人兼首席执行官周宇翔，上海道客网络科技有限公司创始人兼首席执行官陈齐彦， 上海太屋国际集团创始人兼CEO杨彬等企业家先后作TED演讲，既回望了创业初心，生动诠释企业家精 神与责任担当，也分享了对行业瓶颈和未来发展的深度思考。 市政协副主席、市工商联主席寿子琪出席。 记者 胡幸阳 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Chinese Aviation Industry Industry Overview - The Chinese aviation industry is currently in the early stages of a super cycle, driven by a demographic dividend that continues to boost demand for air travel, alongside an increased willingness to travel post-pandemic, despite no significant improvement in the macroeconomic environment [1][4][12]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Price Adjustments**: The marketization of ticket prices has largely been completed, with full ticket prices on major routes increased by 50%-70% [1][3]. - **Fleet Growth**: During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, fleet growth has significantly slowed to single digits (2%-3%), alleviating investment pressure in third and fourth-tier cities, which is beneficial for enhancing industry profitability [1][3]. - **Demand and Supply Dynamics**: Since 2019, the passenger load factor in the Chinese aviation industry has significantly improved, with some routes nearing capacity limits. Future improvements in supply and demand will be reflected more in ticket prices, as the industry enters a low supply growth phase due to airspace bottlenecks and slow recovery in aircraft manufacturing capacity [1][8]. - **Long-term Growth**: By 2025, the Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a phase of increasing supply, which is projected to last for 15 years, achieved through optimized airspace management, controlled aircraft introduction rates, improved fleet turnover efficiency, and increased passenger load factors [1][6][7]. Investment Opportunities - **Profitability Outlook**: The aviation sector is anticipated to see a recovery in profitability and valuation over the next two years, with a high probability of turning profitable by 2025 and potentially achieving profit margins higher than those in 2019 by 2026 [2][13]. - **Valuation Potential**: The traditional airline valuation could rise from 8-10 times earnings to 15-20 times during this super cycle, indicating significant investment potential despite recent stock price increases [2][14]. - **Recommended Airlines**: Key airlines to focus on include: - **Air China**: Strong network and quality of passenger sources, optimistic long-term profitability outlook [15]. - **Juneyao Airlines**: Expected to release significant profit potential in the next two years [17]. - **China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines**: Both have substantial slot resources in the trunk market, poised to benefit from the super cycle [17]. - **Spring Airlines**: Leading profit margins and valuations in key markets, expected to maintain steady growth [17]. Additional Insights - **Passenger Load Factor**: The passenger load factor has reached levels between 88% and 90% during peak periods, indicating efficient utilization of existing seat resources [8]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Despite the lack of significant macroeconomic improvement, strong air travel demand persists due to the ongoing super cycle and increased travel willingness post-pandemic [4][10]. - **Strategic Timing for Investment**: The current period is viewed as an optimal time for strategic investment in the aviation sector, with expectations of continued demand growth and recovery in business travel [12]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the robust growth potential and investment opportunities within the Chinese aviation industry, driven by structural changes and favorable market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines' controlling shareholder, Shanghai Spring International Travel Service (Group) Co., Ltd., has pledged part of its shares to two trust companies, indicating a strategic financial maneuver [2] Group 1 - The controlling shareholder holds a total of 504,000,000 shares in Spring Airlines [2] - On October 17 and October 20, 2025, the controlling shareholder pledged 9,600,000 shares and 2,200,000 shares to Zhongyuan Trust Co., Ltd. and Yunnan International Trust Co., Ltd., respectively [2] - The relevant procedures for the share pledges have been completed [2]

股票代码：601021 股票简称：春秋航空 公告编号：2025-055 春秋航空股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股份质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 春秋航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）控股股东上海春秋国际旅行社 （集团）有限公司（以下简称"春秋国旅"）持有公司股份数量为 504,000,000 股， 占公司总股本的比例为 51.52%；春秋国旅累计质押公司股份数量（含本次）为 45,400,000 股，占其所持公司股份数量的 9.01%，占公司总股本的比例为 4.64%。 公司于 2025 年 10 月 21 日收到公司控股股东春秋国旅的通知，获悉春秋国旅 已于 2025 年 10 月 17 日、2025 年 10 月 20 日将其所持公司部分无限售条件流通股 股份质押给中原信托有限公司和云南国际信托有限公司，相关手续已办理完成。具 体事项如下： | 股东 | 是否为 | 本次质 | 是否 | 是否 | 质押起 | | 质押到 | | 占其所持 | 占公司总 | 质押融 | | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a slight decline of 0.25% on October 21, with Huaxia Airlines leading the drop, while the overall market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.36% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.06% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The aviation and airport sector's decline was noted at 0.25% on the trading day [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.33, reflecting an increase of 1.36% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13077.32, showing a rise of 2.06% [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 4.86, up by 1.67% with a trading volume of 1.7125 million shares and a turnover of 822 million yuan [1]. - CITIC Offshore Helicopter (000099) closed at 21.89, increasing by 1.16% with a trading volume of 116,800 shares and a turnover of 254 million yuan [1]. - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 15.33, up by 0.86% with a trading volume of 78,200 shares and a turnover of 118 million yuan [1]. - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 54.83, increasing by 0.40% with a trading volume of 60,600 shares and a turnover of 330 million yuan [1]. - HNA Holding (600221) remained unchanged at 1.74 with a trading volume of 7.9304 million shares and a turnover of 1.365 billion yuan [1]. - Shenzhen Airport (000089) closed at 7.15, unchanged with a trading volume of 124,000 shares and a turnover of 8.86888 million yuan [1]. - Shanghai Airport (600009) closed at 31.40, down by 0.10% with a trading volume of 69,800 shares and a turnover of 219 million yuan [1]. - China Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 6.59, down by 0.15% with a trading volume of 1.1394 million shares and a turnover of 745 million yuan [1]. - Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004) closed at 9.55, down by 0.42% with a trading volume of 147,500 shares and a turnover of 141 million yuan [1]. - Juneyao Airlines (603885) closed at 14.05, down by 1.26% with a trading volume of 174,600 shares and a turnover of 246 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 50.8219 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 73.3406 million yuan [3]. - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 124 million yuan into the sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic airline ticket prices in September showed a year-on-year increase driven by improved supply and demand dynamics, with expectations for a turning point in Q4 2025 as the supply-demand gap narrows [1] Industry Dynamics - In September, the demand for air travel benefited from increased passenger flow and longer flight distances, resulting in a higher growth rate than supply. The passenger load factor for both domestic and international routes reached record highs [1] - The six listed airlines in A-shares reported a combined ASK/RPK growth of +4.0%/+7.1% year-on-year in September, with domestic passenger load factors reaching 87.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level for September in history [1] - For international routes, the supply growth rate slowed, leading to a widening gap with demand growth. The ASK/RPK for international routes increased by +8.7%/+13.6% year-on-year, with a passenger load factor increase of 3.5 percentage points [1] Aircraft Utilization and Pricing - The aircraft utilization rate in September remained high at 7.8 hours, with narrow-body aircraft showing a slight increase of +0.4% year-on-year [2] - The domestic passenger load factor for the six airlines reached 87.3%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, and 3.9 percentage points compared to 2019, achieving a historical high [2] - Domestic economy class ticket prices increased by +0.6% year-on-year, while international ticket prices decreased by -15.2% [2] Fleet Expansion - The fleet of the six listed airlines grew by 0.3% month-on-month, with a total of 3,340 aircraft managed as of September 2025, reflecting a net increase of 11 aircraft [3] - The main aircraft types introduced were narrow-body models, including 19 new narrow-body aircraft in September [3] Investment Targets - Key companies to watch include China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), Huaxia Airlines (002928.SZ), Air China (601111.SH), China Southern Airlines (600029.SH), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) [4]

①航空物流：波罗的海空运价格指数环比下降，同比下降。②航运港口：内贸集运运价 指数上升，干散货运价上升。③快递物流：2025年8月快递业务量同比上升12.29%，快递业 务收入同比增加4.24%。④航空出行： 2025年10月第二周国际日均执飞航班1865.71次，环比-4.44%，同比 中银证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远 洋航线运价上涨。航空方面沃兰特VE25-100eVTOL成功完成首轮试飞，三大航9月运营数据 释放积极信号。物流与交通新业态方面，京东物流与宁德时代达成战略合作，9月多家快递 公司"量价齐升"。 以下为研究报告摘要： 航运方面，中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远洋航线运价上涨。航空方面 沃兰特VE25-100eVTOL成功完成首轮试飞，三大航9月运营数据释放积极信号。物流与交通 新业态方面，京东物流与宁德时代达成战略合作，9月多家快递公司"量价齐升"。 核心观点 ①中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远洋航线运价上涨。10月16日，上海航 运交易所发布的CTFI指数报1791.28点，较10月9日上涨27.3%。本周VLCC市场中东航线 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the airline sector, highlighting the potential for price recovery driven by improved supply-demand dynamics [6][10]. Core Insights - In September 2025, the airline industry experienced a significant increase in passenger load factors, with domestic and international routes reaching record highs. The combined ASK/RPK for six listed airlines grew by 4.0% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the tight supply-demand relationship, with a notable recovery in business travel demand contributing to price increases. The domestic passenger load factor reached 87.3%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level for September in history [4][13]. - The report suggests that the industry is entering a critical phase where supply constraints may lead to sustained price improvements, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][24]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors and Pricing - The report indicates that high passenger load factors in September have led to price increases, with domestic economy class ticket prices rising by 2.4% year-on-year. International ticket prices, however, saw a decline of 15.2% [4][13]. - The domestic load factor for the six airlines reached 87.3%, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the same period in 2019, reflecting strong demand recovery [4][12]. Fleet Expansion - The total fleet of the six listed airlines increased by 0.3% in September 2025, with a net addition of 11 aircraft. The primary models introduced were the A320 and B737 series [5][24]. - China National Airlines led the fleet expansion with a net increase of 5 aircraft, while Eastern Airlines added 2 aircraft during the same period [26][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to focus on the sustainability of price improvements in the fourth quarter, particularly for business routes. The recovery in business travel is expected to enhance investor sentiment in the sector [5][24]. - Key airlines to watch include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining relevance and popularity of high heels, particularly in professional settings, as comfort and practicality become more prioritized in fashion choices [4][19][36]. Group 1: Changing Attitudes Towards High Heels - There is a growing movement against the requirement for flight attendants, especially female ones, to wear high heels, with several airlines allowing "flat shoe freedom" [5][6]. - High heels, once seen as a symbol of professionalism and elegance, are now viewed as a burden that poses health risks, such as increased chances of sprains and chronic pain [5][15]. - The pandemic has accelerated the shift towards more casual and comfortable attire, leading to a reevaluation of traditional dress codes [14][19]. Group 2: Fashion Trends and Consumer Preferences - Current fashion trends favor comfort and versatility, with alternatives to high heels, such as sneakers and loafers, becoming more popular [20][25]. - The fashion industry is witnessing a decline in the status of high heels, as consumers increasingly seek styles that are practical and suitable for multiple occasions [22][25]. - Brands that have traditionally focused on high heels are diversifying their product lines to include more comfortable footwear options, reflecting changing consumer preferences [37][39]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Sales Trends - Global sales of high heels have been declining, with an annual decrease of 1.5% to 2% from 2019 to 2023, influenced by shifts in work and lifestyle habits [39][44]. - The footwear market is seeing a concentration of sales among leading brands, while many traditional high heel brands are struggling or pivoting to other product lines [46][47]. - High heels are increasingly viewed as a "bad asset" in the investment landscape, with capital focusing on more profitable segments of the footwear market [47][48].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of the implementation of shipping fees in the U.S. on oil and dry bulk shipping, suggesting a favorable market environment [1]. - Key performance indicators for various segments, including air transport, shipping, and logistics, show significant year-on-year growth, indicating a recovery in demand post-pandemic [1][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Market Review - The transportation sector experienced a slight increase of 0.37% this week, while the broader market (CSI 300) declined by 2.22% [11]. - Specific segments such as air transport and logistics showed growth rates of 3.06% and 2.57% respectively [11]. 2. Fundamental Tracking Air Transport - The ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) for airlines has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 145.09% compared to 2019 [20]. - The oil price is reported at 61.29, reflecting a decrease of 2.79% [22]. Shipping and Ports - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) rose by 12.92%, while the CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) showed a decline of 4.11% [30]. - The BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) increased by 7.86%, indicating a recovery in oil shipping rates [40]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) reached 2069.00, marking a growth of 6.87% [44]. - The BPI (Baltic Panamax Index) also saw an increase of 3.57%, reflecting a positive trend in dry bulk shipping [44]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the transportation sector that are showing strong recovery indicators and growth potential [7].