Group 1 - The total scale of fixed income + funds reached approximately 2.18 trillion, marking a historical high in Q4 2025, despite a slower growth rate compared to Q3 2025 [8][12][21] - The increase in scale was primarily driven by medium-position fixed income + funds, while the scale of primary bond funds slightly declined [10][12][14] - The top products contributing to the scale increase included Invesco Great Wall Jing Sheng Shuang Xi, Yongying Stable Enhancement, and Huaxia Stable Enjoyment Incremental 6-Month Rolling [10][14] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, fixed income + funds generally reduced equity positions due to high volatility in the equity market, while increasing allocations to financial and cyclical sectors, and decreasing allocations to pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and cash-generating sectors [30][31] - There was a notable divergence in the allocation strategy towards the TMT sector, with high-elasticity funds continuing to increase their positions, while other product types showed no significant adjustment tendencies [30][31] Group 3 - In Q4 2025, the average return and maximum drawdown for fixed income + funds were 0.43% and -1.30% respectively, with median returns for low, medium, and high-position funds at 0.48%, 0.34%, and 0.17% [10][12] - The top-performing fund companies in terms of average returns were Invesco Great Wall and Huashang, with representative products being Invesco Great Wall Jing Yi Zhao Li 6-Month Holding and Huashang Credit Enhancement [10][12][21]

2026 年 01 月 27 日 累计规模创历史新高，四季度 FOF 偏好周期基金 ——25Q4 FOF 季报分析 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 相关研究 - 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 量 化 策 略 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 规模维度： 累计规模创历史新高、Q4 新发规模超过 25Q1~25Q3 总和；四季度 FOF 新 发规模与数量均高度突出：截止 25Q4，FOF 共计 549 只基金，相比 25Q3 存量 FOF 上 升 31 只，上升幅度在近三年中突出。四季度新发规模 454.22 亿元，超过 25Q1~25Q3 三季度的累计新发规模；持营规模略有上升：25Q4FOF 的持营规模略有上升，累计 ...

Market Performance - On January 27, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.18% to 4139.9 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.09% to 14329.91 points, and the ChiNext Index climbing by 0.71% to 3342.6 points [1] - The sectors that performed well included storage chips, automotive chips, and F5G concepts, while sectors such as pork, Helicobacter pylori, and organic silicon experienced declines [1] Fund Manager Changes - On January 27, a total of 19 fund managers experienced changes in their positions, which can significantly impact the future performance of the funds they manage [2] - In the past 30 days (December 28 to January 27), 507 fund managers have left their positions, with 30 fund products announcing departures on January 27 alone [3] - The reasons for these departures included personal reasons, the end of agency roles, and product expirations [3] New Fund Managers - On January 27, 50 fund products announced new fund manager appointments, involving 15 new managers [5] - Notably, Longjiang Wei from Hengsheng Qianhai Fund has a total asset scale of 629 million yuan, with a highest return of 72.22% on the Hengsheng Qianhai High-end Manufacturing Mixed A fund during his tenure [5] Fund Research Activity - In the past month, Bosera Fund conducted the most company research, engaging with 46 listed companies, followed by Huaxia Fund and Guotai Fund with 44 and 37 companies respectively [7] - The chemical products industry was the most researched sector, with 193 instances, followed by the automotive parts industry with 170 instances [7] - In the last week (January 20 to January 27), the most researched company was Dajin Heavy Industry, which received attention from 67 fund management companies [9]

Core Insights - A significant amount of deposits is maturing, with estimates suggesting that the nationwide maturing fixed deposits could reach 50 trillion yuan this year, prompting a shift in investment strategies among residents [2][3] Group 1: Deposit Trends and Investment Shifts - The continuous decline in deposit interest rates has led to a reassessment of investment options, with many conservative investors opting to renew deposits or shift towards insurance products, while risk-tolerant investors are increasingly exploring funds and bank wealth management products [2][3] - The People's Bank of China has indicated that a large volume of long-term deposits will mature by 2026, which will compel depositors to consider alternatives like bank wealth management and funds due to lower interest rates [3][4] Group 2: Performance of Financial Products - In 2025, the capital market is expected to show an upward trend, with median returns for equity and mixed funds reaching 26.42% and 22.92% respectively, while bank wealth management products are projected to yield around 2% [4] - Despite the decline in returns from wealth management products due to bond market fluctuations, they still offer a better yield compared to traditional deposits [4] Group 3: Customer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The transition of funds from deposits to investment products is gradual, with increased interest in funds noted since last year, particularly during the year-end and early-year periods when many customers receive bonuses or have maturing funds [5][6] - Many ordinary depositors remain unaware of the implications of interest rate cuts, often choosing to reinvest in fixed deposits rather than exploring other investment avenues [6] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Financial advisors are increasingly recommending diversified investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of balanced asset allocation to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [8][10] - Investment firms are adapting their product offerings to meet the evolving needs of clients, focusing on multi-strategy and multi-asset solutions to enhance returns while managing risk [8][9]

Group 1 - Hengtong Optic-Electric's stock price increased by 2.74% to 31.86 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 5.84 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 7.71%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 78.59 billion CNY [1] - The stock has risen for three consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 18.04% during this period [1] - Hengtong Optic-Electric, established on June 5, 1993, and listed on August 22, 2003, specializes in high-end technology, product R&D, and system integration services in the communication network and energy interconnection sectors, as well as global submarine cable communication network construction [1] Group 2 - The main revenue composition of Hengtong Optic-Electric includes: smart grid (36.98%), copper conductors (25.02%), industrial and new energy intelligence (11.28%), optical communication (10.94%), marine energy and communication (9.57%), and others (5.33%) [1] - E Fund's ETF, the E Fund SSE 380 ETF (530380), holds 234,400 shares of Hengtong Optic-Electric, accounting for 0.85% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The E Fund SSE 380 ETF has generated a return of 12.11% this year, ranking 1031 out of 5548 in its category, and has a total asset size of 6.78 billion CNY [2]

1月26日，沪指全天横盘震荡，贵金属板块逆市大涨，医药股集体走强，商业航天概念股调整。 在市场"降温"背景下，昨日股票ETF市场延续净流出态势，沪深300ETF净流出近700亿元，上证 50ETF、中证500ETF、中证1000ETF等龙头产品也有百亿元体量资金净流出。 具体到指数维度，昨日沪深300ETF净流出居前，达695.72亿元。其中，华泰柏瑞、易方达、华夏、嘉 实基金旗下沪深300ETF合计净流出接近700亿元，4只龙头产品净流出资金位居全市场前四强。 宽基ETF中，上证50ETF、中证500ETF净流出也超100亿元，南方、华夏、广发、富国基金旗下中证 1000ETF合计净流出超200亿元。 虽然资金短期净流出，但机构仍然看好市场后市机会。 国泰基金表示，自去年12月中旬A股市场连续上涨后，决策层适时降温平抑市场投机炒作情绪，股市在 指数层面进入震荡整固阶段。但需要强调的是，春季躁动行情并未结束，待局部拥挤筹码消化后，市场 有望在春节后蓄力新高。 一家中型基金公司也认为，随着前期热门赛道获利盘集中兑现，以及避险情绪推动资金向低估值上游资 源板块切换，近日市场走弱。展望后市，可关注市场资金面与投资者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese public fund industry is reaching a milestone with the total scale of ETFs expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, reflecting a significant shift towards index-based investment tools due to their low fees, high liquidity, and convenience for investors [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Market Growth - The Chinese ETF market has experienced explosive growth over the past five years, with the scale increasing from 1.42 trillion yuan in 2021 to 6.25 trillion yuan by early 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate of 35%, making it one of the fastest-growing ETF markets globally [2][8]. - In 2025, 96% of ETFs achieved positive returns, with an average return rate of 28.5%, and nine products saw their value double, providing substantial returns for investors [8]. Group 2: Advantages of ETFs - ETFs allow investors to reduce non-systematic risk associated with individual stocks or sectors by providing exposure to a basket of assets [4]. - The passive index-tracking model of ETFs typically results in lower annual management fees [5]. - ETFs offer flexibility and strong liquidity, enabling trading at market prices throughout the trading day, which is beneficial for capturing short-term market opportunities [5]. - High transparency is a key feature of ETFs, with daily disclosures of subscription and redemption lists [6]. Group 3: Regulatory Support and Industry Trends - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released a plan in May 2025 to promote high-quality development in public funds, emphasizing index-based investment as a crucial direction for optimizing the product system [8]. - The plan encourages the development of products that cater to different funding attributes, investment goals, and risk preferences, supporting the diversification and refinement of index funds [8]. Group 4: E Fund's Competitive Edge - E Fund has been proactive in reducing ETF management fees since 2015, with the management fee for its CSI 300 ETF decreasing from 0.5% to 0.15% per year, making it the lowest in the market at that time [9]. - As of December 31, 2025, over 370 ETFs in the market have a combined management and custody fee of 0.2% per year, with E Fund leading the industry with 62 such products [9]. - E Fund's extensive experience in index investment, having launched its first index product in 2004, positions it as a strong player in capturing investment opportunities in sectors like technology and healthcare [13].

Group 1 - Jack Technology's stock increased by 5.25% to 47.32 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 171 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.78%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 22.545 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on August 27, 2003, and listed on January 19, 2017, specializes in the research, production, and sales of industrial sewing machinery, including industrial sewing machines, cutting tables, and fabric laying machines [1] - The revenue composition of Jack Technology includes 86.87% from intelligent industrial sewing machines, 10.21% from intelligent cutting tables and fabric laying machines, 2.71% from automatic sewing equipment for shirts and jeans, and 0.21% from other sources [1] Group 2 - E Fund's New Silk Road Mixed Fund (001373) holds 1.4881 million shares of Jack Technology, accounting for 2.28% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding [2] - The fund has generated a floating profit of approximately 3.512 million CNY today [2] - The New Silk Road Mixed Fund was established on May 27, 2015, with a current size of 2.829 billion CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 8.19% and a one-year return of 29.51% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of E Fund's New Silk Road Mixed Fund is Wang Sinan, who has been in the position for 1 year and 164 days, with a total asset size of 2.829 billion CNY and a best return of 48.09% during his tenure [3] - Co-manager Qiu Tianlan has been in the role for 1 year and 70 days, managing assets totaling 3.167 billion CNY, with a best return of 27.87% and a worst return of -0.12% during his tenure [3]

Market Overview - The market showed a rebound after an initial dip, with the ChiNext Index turning positive and the CSI A500 Index rising by 0.01% [1] - Precious metals continued to perform strongly, while semiconductor equipment stocks experienced a rebound. The CPO concept was also active [1] - Conversely, the battery industry chain saw a collective decline [1] ETF Performance - As of the morning close, the ETFs tracking the CSI A500 Index exhibited mixed performance, with 10 ETFs having a trading volume exceeding 100 million yuan, and 2 surpassing 9.1 billion yuan [1] - The A500 ETF from Huatai-PB had a trading volume of 9.692 billion yuan, while the A500 ETF Fund recorded 9.122 billion yuan [1] Analyst Outlook - Analysts maintain a medium-term view that suggests following the trend in the short term and actively seizing the buying window from mid-December 2025 to early March 2026, with the current upward trend expected to remain intact [1]

Overall ETF Fund Flow - Total net outflow from broad-based ETFs reached 3961.9 billion, with over 2380 billion outflow from ETFs linked to the CSI 300 index[2] - Since January 12, the scale of broad-based ETFs has decreased by 5530.5 billion, exceeding the total increase for the entire year of 2025[2] - From January 19 to 23, stock ETFs (excluding cross-border) had a net outflow of 3331.7 billion, a decrease of 1918.9 billion from the previous week, totaling nearly 5000 billion since January 14[1] Sector and Theme ETFs - A-share industry and theme ETFs saw a slight decrease in weekly net inflow but remained high, indicating sustained investor interest[1] - Cross-border industry and theme ETFs had a net inflow of 73.6 billion, slightly down by 30.6 billion from the previous week[1] - Key sectors with strong inflows included semiconductors, chemicals, electric grid equipment, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to continue attracting investment[2] Representative ETF Flows - The top five ETFs with the highest net inflows from January 19 to 23 were: - Huaxia CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme ETF (78.3 billion) - Penghua CSI Subdivided Chemical Industry ETF (57.0 billion) - Harvest SSE Sci-Tech Board Chip ETF (25.5 billion) - Southern CSI Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals ETF (25.4 billion) - Guotai CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF (24.1 billion)[3] - The ETFs with the largest net outflows included: - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (-724 billion) - E Fund CSI 300 ETF (-619 billion) - Huaxia CSI 300 ETF (-561.6 billion)[3]