每经AI快讯，9月22日，港股医药股多数上扬。截至发稿，药明合联(02268.HK)涨6.82%，报75.2港元； 诺诚健华(09969.HK)涨5.72%，报17.38港元；药明生物(02269.HK)涨3.86%，报39.24港元；歌礼制药- B(01672.HK)涨3.09%，报11.01港元；恒瑞医药(01276.HK)涨2.74%，报90港元。 ...

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical stocks are mostly rising, with notable increases in companies such as WuXi AppTec (02268) up 6.82% to HKD 75.2, Innovent Biologics (09969) up 5.72% to HKD 17.38, and WuXi Biologics (02269) up 3.86% to HKD 39.24 [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration has released the 11th batch of centralized procurement documents for drugs, emphasizing principles such as "stabilizing clinical use, ensuring quality, preventing collusion, and countering internal competition" [1] - The procurement plan optimizes the selection of price control "anchors," moving away from simply choosing the lowest bid, which reflects a proactive approach by the healthcare authority to promote a healthier domestic market [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities expresses strong confidence in a reversal trend for the pharmaceutical sector in 2025, identifying innovative drugs and the left-side sector's recovery as the biggest investment opportunities [2] - The upward trend in the innovative drug industry remains unchanged, with multinational corporations facing patent cliffs and likely to continue using business development (BD) strategies to fill revenue gaps [2] - Dongwu Securities notes that in a context of interest rate cuts, the innovative industry chain's prosperity is expected to improve, benefiting upstream biotech and CXO sectors [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.32%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.68%, and the National Enterprises Index down 0.42% [1] - Consumer stocks showed weakness, with Anta Sports down over 4% and Kuaishou opening down 6.3% due to regulatory scrutiny over harmful information [1] - Pharmaceutical stocks generally rebounded, with Innovent Biologics rising over 3%, and Hongteng Precision opening nearly 7% close to historical highs [1] Group 2 - In the first eight months, the amount of goods eligible for tax refunds at Shanghai's exit exceeded 2 billion yuan, surpassing the total for the previous year [1] - The Shanghai Customs reported a significant increase in tax refund applications, with 96,600 applications and a total amount of 2.07 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 168% and 83% respectively [1] - The Hongqiao Airport Customs also performed well, with 3,329 tax refund applications and a total amount of 125 million yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 140% and 31% respectively [1] Group 3 - Relevant popular ETFs include the Tourism ETF (562510), which may benefit from the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, and the Food and Beverage ETF (515170) that focuses on core assets in the "food and drink sector" [2] - The Consumption 30 ETF (510630) covers various sub-sectors including liquor, food, beauty care, and biotechnology [2] - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) aggregates leading internet consumption stocks in Hong Kong [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly lower on September 22, with the Hang Seng Index at 26,459.52 points, down 85.58 points, a decrease of 0.32% [1] - BYD responded to reports that Berkshire Hathaway had completely divested its shares in the company, confirming that Berkshire began reducing its stake in August 2022 and was below 5% by June 2024 [3] - Shandong High-Speed Holdings confirmed no unusual reasons for stock price and trading volume fluctuations, stating that business operations and financial conditions remain stable [5] Group 2 - The technology sector saw declines, with NetEase down over 1% and Alibaba down nearly 1%, while the innovative drug concept stocks opened higher, with Innovent Biologics up over 3% [7] - AI remains a key theme in the Hong Kong market, with internet stocks expected to benefit significantly; the non-ferrous metals sector is also poised to gain from interest rate cuts and inflation expectations [8] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating positive momentum for certain stocks [9]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous cobalt concept is showing strong performance across the board, while the consumption electronics sector is active, and the robotics and oil and gas sectors are experiencing declines [1][2] - The A-share market opened with all three major indices rising: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and ChiNext Index up 0.10% [1][2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index down 0.32% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.68%, with notable declines in Kuaishou, which fell over 6% due to an investigation into its e-commerce operations [3] - Pharmaceutical stocks generally rebounded, with Nocera Healthcare rising over 3%, while Hongteng Precision opened nearly 7% higher, approaching historical highs [3] Group 3 - Anta Sports saw a decline of over 4% following an apology related to a sponsorship incident involving fireworks in the Himalayas [4][5]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous cobalt concept is showing strong performance across the board, while the consumption electronics sector is active, and the robotics and oil & gas sectors are experiencing declines [1][3] - The A-share Apple supply chain is active at the opening, with Luxshare Precision hitting the daily limit, and several other stocks such as GoerTek, Darui Electronics, Lens Technology, and others opening high [1] - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index down 0.32% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.68%, with notable declines in Kuaishou and Anta Sports [4] Group 2 - The A-share market opened with all three major indices rising slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.10% [2][3] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 240.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, along with a 300 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The new drug sector has shown significant movements, with notable increases in stock prices for companies such as Kintor Pharmaceutical, which recently went public in Hong Kong, focusing on unmet clinical needs in oncology and immunology [2][3][21] - The KRAS G12D inhibitor GFH375 from Kintor Pharmaceutical has demonstrated promising clinical data in treating pancreatic cancer and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), with an overall response rate (ORR) of 52% in pancreatic cancer and 68.8% in NSCLC [21][24] Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, the top five gainers in the new drug sector included Kintor Pharmaceutical (+19.64%), Boan Biotechnology (+8.89%), and others, while the top five losers included Sanofi Pharmaceuticals (-17.16%) and others [1][13] Recommended Stocks to Watch - The report suggests focusing on several potential catalysts in the sector, including academic conferences and insurance negotiations. Key companies to watch include: 1. Differentiated GLP-1 assets: Zai Lab, EQRx, and others 2. Upgraded PD-1 products: CanSino Biologics and others 3. Companies likely to benefit from insurance negotiations: Hengrui Medicine, Kanghong Pharmaceutical, and others [2][17] New Drug Approval and Acceptance - This week, eight new drug applications were approved, and twelve new drug applications were accepted in China [3][25] Clinical Application Approvals - A total of 48 new drug clinical applications were approved, with 32 applications accepted this week [7][29]

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges of applying traditional value investment principles to the innovative pharmaceutical sector, highlighting the need for a tailored approach that incorporates dynamic probability management and phase-specific investment strategies [1][3][4]. Investment Strategy - Investment in innovative pharmaceuticals should differentiate between three stages: R&D, commercialization, and maturity, matching different durations of capital accordingly [2][4]. - A three-dimensional evaluation system should be constructed to assess pipeline value, utilizing a valuation method based on peak sales, success probabilities, and discount factors [2][6]. - A recommended asset allocation strategy includes 20% of funds in early-stage projects, 50% in projects at commercialization inflection points, and 30% in cash flow-generating assets [2][5]. Traditional Value Investment Conflicts - Traditional value investment principles conflict with the characteristics of innovative pharmaceuticals, such as the non-permanence of competitive advantages, non-linear profitability, and the failure of safety margins [3][4]. - The concept of a "moat" is challenged by the temporary nature of patent protections, leading to significant revenue declines post-patent expiration [3]. - The high failure rates in clinical trials, particularly in Phase III, create substantial risks that can lead to drastic market value losses [3][4]. Dynamic Valuation Approach - A shift from static asset valuation to dynamic probability-based valuation is necessary, incorporating a three-dimensional assessment of clinical, commercial, and technical platform values [6][7]. - The proposed valuation formula calculates enterprise value by summing the product of pipeline peak sales, success probabilities, and discount factors [7][9]. Risk Management Framework - A systematic risk management framework is essential to address the inherent risks throughout the R&D and commercialization phases [10][11]. - A "steady dual-drive allocation strategy" is suggested, balancing investments in high-certainty assets with those in high-growth potential companies [12]. - A Bayesian mechanism for dynamic tracking of portfolio companies is recommended, utilizing a monitoring matrix and decision trees to manage risks proactively [13]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the need for a redefined investment framework in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, focusing on duration matching, probability-based valuation, and dynamic risk management to capture industry opportunities effectively [14].

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09 points, with a decline of 0.30% and a total trading volume of 23494.13 billion yuan [1] - A total of 181 A-shares experienced a death cross, where the 5-day moving average fell below the 10-day moving average [1] Group 1: Stocks with Significant Death Cross - Changshan Pharmaceutical (300255) saw a decline of 3.71% with a 5-day moving average of 46.98 yuan, which is 1.63% lower than the 10-day moving average [1] - Zero Point (301169) decreased by 1.44%, with a 5-day moving average of 45.25 yuan, 1.33% lower than the 10-day moving average [1] - Dongxin Peace (002017) dropped by 5.00%, with a 5-day moving average of 26.02 yuan, 1.28% lower than the 10-day moving average [1] Group 2: Additional Stocks with Death Cross - Xiyu Co. (000960) increased by 0.73%, but its 5-day moving average of 21.23 yuan is 1.20% lower than the 10-day moving average [1] - ST Lifang (300344) fell by 1.98%, with a 5-day moving average of 5.14 yuan, 1.19% lower than the 10-day moving average [1] - Zhongse Co. (000758) had a slight increase of 0.16%, with a 5-day moving average of 6.62 yuan, which is 1.12% lower than the 10-day moving average [1]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：ETF万亿指数） 美联储降息终于落地了降。 25bp符合预期，点阵图显示年内还要降两次，有点鸽派；但是鲍威尔的表态又"不够鸽派"，so，有点纠 结。 所以，涨跌都有理，有句话说的好，符合预期就是利好兑现，跌。 对了，还有Good Afternoon的梗... 如果鲍威尔说"Good Afternoon"，就是偏鹰派，不降息或者降息没超预期，跌。 如果他说"Hello Everyone"，那就是鸽，要降息，涨！ 华尔街机构也早早的部署好了AI系统，第一时间捕捉到他舌头的微小变化，来决定买卖了... 有点失望的是，鲍威尔这回的开场是"Good Afternoon"。 自这之后，美股先涨后跌，大A似乎也复制了同样的走势，不得不服啊这预判。 那，今天聊聊降息下，大家比较关注的创新药板块，调整后还没有没有机会。 一、创新药，三重压力下暂时回调 港股通创新药ETF（520880）在连续9个交易日调整后，场内却延续高频溢价，买盘资金依然强势，这 辆创新药高速列车是否在等待更多人上车？ 港股通创新药ETF基金经理丰晨成解读，近期调整主要源于三重因素叠加： 1、行业催化空窗期：缺乏大BD（商务拓展）催化 ...