盈利预测与投资评级：作为安徽省属国资旗下的核心电力龙头，皖能受益于安徽省良好的电力供需格 局，近年新投建的新疆机组盈利可观，同时大比例参股优质的煤电一体化及抽蓄资产，投资收益未来保 持稳健增长。我们预测公司2024-2026 年归母净利润分别为20.67/22.28/23.80 亿元，EPS 分别为 0.91/0.98/1.05 元，对应3 月31 日收盘价的PE 分别为8.18/7.59/7.11倍，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 安徽国资旗下核心电力平台，控参股优质火电资产。皖能电力是安徽省能源集团旗下唯一发电资产主业 的核心上市平台，旗下装机以火电为主。截至2024 年底，公司在运控股装机体量为1368.70 万千瓦（对 应权益量780.55万千瓦），参股在运装机1702 万千瓦（对应权益量720.86 万千瓦）；在建项目方面，公 司控股在建装机210 万千瓦（对应权益量147 万千瓦），主要参股在建项目包括596 万千瓦火电（对应 权益量190 万千瓦）以及3座抽水蓄能电站（装机容量368 万千瓦，公司对应权益量67 万千瓦）。 风险因素：煤电利用小时数大幅下滑及电价大幅下降的风险；在建及规划项目进展不及 ...

Group 1 - The pumped storage concept saw an increase of 1.95% on April 1, with a net inflow of 49.66 million yuan from main funds, where 29 stocks rose and 2 fell [1] - The top stocks by net inflow were Guoji Heavy Industry (601399) with 37.82 million yuan, Waneng Electric Power (000543) with 33.32 million yuan, and Three Gorges Energy (600905) with 25.87 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The top performing stocks in the pumped storage sector included: - Guoji Heavy Industry (601399) with a latest price of 3.17 yuan and a rise of 3.26%, net inflow of 37.82 million yuan, accounting for 6.02% of the main fund [2] - Waneng Electric Power (000543) with a latest price of 7.74 yuan and a rise of 3.75%, net inflow of 33.32 million yuan, accounting for 6.83% of the main fund [2] - Three Gorges Energy (600905) with a latest price of 4.30 yuan and a rise of 1.65%, net inflow of 25.87 million yuan, accounting for 3.87% of the main fund [2]

- The report utilizes the **Heston model** to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, which serves as the market's fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility[7] - The **broad-based timing strategy** signals are based on the shape analysis of indices. For example, the Shanghai 50 index shows a bullish signal, while other broad-based indices remain neutral. The strategy's annualized return for the Shanghai 50 index is 11.84%, with a maximum drawdown of -20.2%[12][14] - The **industry timing strategy** is constructed using the long-short ratio scissors difference of industry index constituent stocks. If no bullish or bearish signals are present on a given day, the scissors difference and its ratio are set to zero. This model outperforms its respective industry indices in all cases, demonstrating excellent historical backtesting performance[15] - The **special bullish shape signals** are derived from six technical patterns: Golden Needle Bottom, Rocket Launch, Full Red, Hanging Line, Paradise Line, and Dark Cloud Line. Among these, Golden Needle Bottom, Rocket Launch, and Full Red exhibit strong positive predictive effects. Specific stocks with these signals include Shenzhen Energy, Pailin Biotech, and others[20][21][22] - The **brokerage golden stock shape signals** combine fundamental analysis with shape analysis. Stocks recommended by brokerages are monitored for shape-based buy signals, and a portfolio is constructed by buying on the second trading day after the signal appears. This approach significantly improves portfolio returns and reduces maximum drawdowns. Stocks with a 70% bullish signal success rate this week include Lens Technology and Haitian Precision[28][29][33]

Core Points - The company reported a net profit of 10.14 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.0% [1] - The company's revenue for 2024 was 245.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 15%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in domestic coal prices [1] Operational Data - In Q4 2024, the on-grid electricity volume was 111.7 billion kWh, an increase of 1.11% year-on-year, while the average settlement price for 2024 was 494.26 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 2.85% [2] - The total installed capacity for 2024 reached 145.1 GW, with new installations of 9.7 GW, including 0.3 GW for thermal power, 2.6 GW for wind power, and 6.8 GW for solar power [2] New Energy Business - The profits from wind and solar energy businesses were 6.772 billion yuan and 2.725 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 15% and 33% [3] - The capital expenditure for wind power is expected to increase significantly in 2025, rising from 25.056 billion yuan in 2024 to 36.2 billion yuan [3] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.27 yuan per share, totaling 4.238 billion yuan, which represents 58.78% of the distributable profit [3] Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 11.6 billion yuan, 12 billion yuan, and 12.7 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.74, 0.77, and 0.81 yuan [4] - The target market value for the company in 2025 is estimated at 131.7 billion yuan, with a target price of 8.39 yuan, indicating a potential upside of approximately 21% from the current price [4]

Core Viewpoint - The utility sector experienced significant capital outflows, with six stocks, including Ming Star Power, seeing net outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [1][4]. Industry Summary - The utility sector declined by 0.43% today, with a total net outflow of 667 million yuan from main capital [4][6]. - Among the 132 stocks in the utility sector, 47 rose while 79 fell, with one stock hitting the daily limit down [4]. - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Guang'an Aizhong (49.86 million yuan), Qianyuan Power (41.03 million yuan), and China General Nuclear Power (35.74 million yuan) [4][5]. - The stocks with the highest net outflows were Ming Star Power (-178.32 million yuan), Jiangsu New Energy (-101.27 million yuan), and Guangdong Power A (-82.25 million yuan) [6][7]. Capital Flow Summary - The main capital inflow leaders in the utility sector included: - Guang'an Aizhong: -1.47% change, 12.68% turnover rate, 49.86 million yuan inflow [5]. - Qianyuan Power: 5.13% change, 6.41% turnover rate, 41.03 million yuan inflow [5]. - China General Nuclear Power: 0.54% change, 0.59% turnover rate, 35.74 million yuan inflow [5]. - The main capital outflow leaders included: - Ming Star Power: -6.03% change, 26.15% turnover rate, -178.32 million yuan outflow [6]. - Jiangsu New Energy: -0.60% change, 7.32% turnover rate, -101.27 million yuan outflow [6]. - Guangdong Power A: -2.49% change, 1.92% turnover rate, -82.25 million yuan outflow [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The overall electricity consumption in the first two months increased by 1.3% year-on-year, while the industrial natural gas production rose by 3.7% [1][5] - The utility sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 0.8% as of March 21, 2025 [4][10] - The report highlights a potential improvement in profitability and value reassessment for the electricity sector due to previous supply-demand tensions [6] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port decreased by 10 CNY/ton week-on-week, reaching 673 CNY/ton as of March 21, 2025 [4][21] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port increased by 90,000 tons week-on-week, totaling 7.29 million tons [4][28] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 450,000 tons/day week-on-week, with a total of 3.063 million tons [4][30] - The outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir increased by 28.73% year-on-year, reaching 9,050 cubic meters/second [4][46] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 4,572 CNY/ton, up 8.68% year-on-year and 0.33% week-on-week [4][53] - The average price of LNG imports in January 2025 was 599.09 USD/ton, down 3.40% year-on-year [4][53] - The European TTF gas price increased by 51.0% year-on-year, reaching 13.41 USD/million BTU [4][57] Investment Recommendations - For the electricity sector, it is suggested to focus on leading coal-fired power companies such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International, as well as regional leaders in tight supply areas [6] - In the natural gas sector, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are recommended for potential profit growth [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of project construction in Jiangsu's offshore wind power and the planned trial operation of the southern regional electricity market by the end of June [1][2] - The report tracks significant price movements in coal and gas, with coal prices showing a decrease and gas prices also declining [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring monthly electricity prices and coal cost elasticity for thermal power companies [3] Summary by Sections Electricity Sector Data Tracking - As of March 14, 2025, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 690 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.43% compared to March 7 [9] - The inventory of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 7.2 million tons, down 3.9% from March 7, but up 40.6% year-on-year [9] - The average utilization hours for thermal power equipment in 2024 are projected to be 4,400 hours, a decrease of 66 hours compared to the previous year [20] Hydropower Sector Data Tracking - On March 14, 2025, the inflow to the Three Gorges Reservoir is 0.85 million cubic meters per second, up 54.55% year-on-year, while the outflow is 0.78 million cubic meters per second, up 12.94% year-on-year [22] - The total installed capacity of hydropower in China is expected to reach 435.95 GW by the end of 2024, with an annual increase of 13.78 GW [24] - The hydropower generation in 2024 is projected to be 1,274.2 billion kWh, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year [28] Renewable Energy Sector Data Tracking - By the end of 2024, the total installed capacity for wind and solar power in China is expected to reach 520.68 GW and 886.66 GW, respectively, with new installations of 79.34 GW for wind and 277.17 GW for solar [33] - The price of domestic monocrystalline solar modules (PERC, 310W) is 0.70 RMB/watt, reflecting a 1.45% increase from March 7 [38] - The price of domestic lithium iron phosphate is 33,700 RMB/ton, down 23.00% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to March 7 [43] Natural Gas Sector Data Tracking - As of March 14, 2025, the average ex-factory price for domestic gas is 4,303 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.92% from March 7, while the average ex-factory price for imported LNG is 5,100 RMB/ton, down 0.71% [50] - The LNG import price as of March 13 is 13.45 USD/million BTU, equivalent to 3.41 RMB/cubic meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54.46% [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the public utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The Gansu Energy Investment Green Power Aggregation Pilot Project promotes the integration of "computing power + energy" development, with a planned capacity of 1 million kilowatts, including 750,000 kilowatts of wind power and 250,000 kilowatts of solar power [4]. - Shandong Province has issued implementation details for the source-network-load-storage integration pilot, emphasizing compliance and prohibiting illegal practices [4]. - The report highlights a decrease in electricity prices and coal prices, with the average electricity purchase price in March 2025 at 398 RMB/MWh, down 4% year-on-year [34]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The public utility index rose by 2.19% from March 10 to March 14, 2025, outperforming the market [12]. - The top five gainers included KAITENG Gas (+34.7%) and LINGDA Co. (+24.2%) [12]. 2. Power Sector Tracking 2.1 Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption for 2024 is projected at 9.85 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [14]. - The growth rates for different sectors are: primary industry (+6.3%), secondary industry (+5.1%), tertiary industry (+9.9%), and urban-rural residential use (+10.6%) [14]. 2.2 Power Generation - Cumulative power generation for 2024 is expected to reach 9.42 trillion kWh, reflecting a 4.6% year-on-year increase [24]. - The growth rates for various power sources are: thermal power (+1.5%), hydropower (+10.7%), nuclear power (+2.7%), wind power (+11.1%), and solar power (+28.2%) [24]. 2.3 Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price in March 2025 is 398 RMB/MWh, down 4% year-on-year and stable compared to the previous month [34]. 2.4 Coal Prices - As of March 14, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is 681 RMB/ton, down 21.99% year-on-year and 1.02% week-on-week [41]. 2.5 Water Conditions - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir is 164.01 meters, with inflow and outflow rates showing significant year-on-year increases [4]. 2.6 Nuclear Power - In 2024, 11 nuclear units have been approved, indicating a positive growth trajectory for the sector [4]. 2.7 Green Power - The report emphasizes the growth potential of green power, with significant increases in installed capacity for wind (+25.0%) and solar (+25.9%) [4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on hydropower companies like Changjiang Electric, thermal power companies such as Waneng Power, and nuclear power firms like China Nuclear Power [4].

[Table_Report] 相关报告 公用事业《从成长到红利，城燃行业价值重构》 2025.03.13 公用事业《首批 CCER 登记，全国碳市场加速完 善》2025.03.13 公用事业《强化能耗考核，积极稳妥推进"双 碳"工作》2025.03.09 公用事业《国七标准制定在即，尾气催化剂加速 扩容》2025.03.05 公用事业《单位能耗考核强化，"双碳"目标稳 妥推进》2025.03.05 风电延续改善趋势，内蒙鼓励增量配电网建设 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 ——公用事业行业周报（2025.3.10-2025.3.14） | [table_Authors] 于鸿光(分析师) | | 孙辉贤(分析师) | 汪玥(研究助理) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38031730 | | 021-38038670 | 021-38031030 | | m | yuhongguang025906@gtjas.co | | sunhuixian026739@gtjas.com wangyue028681@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880522020 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 公用事业 公用事业 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 16 日 绿电直供凸显环境属性，清洁能源迎来专项资金 ——环保与公用事业行业周报 投资要点 ❑ 行情回顾 本周，公用事业板块指数上涨 2.19%，涨跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 11，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.61%；本周，环保板块指数上涨 2.53%，涨跌幅在 32 个 申万一级行业中排名第 9，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.94%。截至 2025 年 3 月 7 日，公 用事业（申万）PE（TTM）为 16.87 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍；环保（申万）PE （TTM）为 21.60 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍。 ❑ 行业重要动态 ❑ 核心观点与投资建议 ❑ 公用事业行业，本周重点关注个股组合：佛燃能源+东方电子+中国核电。 A.绿电运营板块。去年以来政策推动典型高耗能行业参与绿证绿电交易，绿电环 境价值有望进一步兑现；此外新能源全面入市有望带动电价下行，叠加电网发债 持续推进下绿电企业国补欠补问题有望改善。考虑到当前绿电估值已处价值洼地， 尤其是港股绿电普遍处于破净状态，后续可进一步关注新能源大基地 ...