Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. As long as the risk sentiment is not overly exuberant, the bond market will face little pressure. The market is currently waiting for the policy statements of the Fourth Plenary Session on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the results of China-US trade negotiations, and it may remain volatile in the short term. Operators can continue to hold long positions at low levels, and those with empty positions can go long on dips [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated after the opening, declined briefly before the midday break, and then rebounded in the afternoon, with all varieties closing higher. Spot bond yields fluctuated, with medium and long-term yields declining. The capital market was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. The open market conducted 15.95 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, resulting in a net injection of 6.85 billion yuan [1] News - Trump stated at a White House press conference that he listed rare earth export controls, fentanyl control, and the resumption of soybean imports as the "three negotiation conditions" for China and hinted at the possibility of making tariff concessions in exchange for China's compromise [2] Market Analysis - Due to Trump's softened stance, the US stock market approached its previous high, and the A-share market continued to rebound today with increased trading volume. The bond market was initially affected but gradually shook off the influence of the stock market in the afternoon [3] Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 21 | 2025 - 10 - 20 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.362 | 102.336 | 0.026 | | TF2512 | 105.695 | 105.66 | 0.035 | | T2512 | 108.12 | 108.09 | 0.03 | | TL2512 | 115.49 | 115.41 | 0.08 | | TS Basis (CTD) | -0.0144 | -0.0313 | 0.0169 | | TF Basis (CTD) | -0.0262 | -0.0478 | 0.0216 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0253 | 0.009 | 0.0163 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2497 | 0.243 | 0.0067 | | TS Contract Position (Lots) | 77,402 | 75,809 | 1,593 | | TF Contract Position (Lots) | 156,544 | 154,552 | 1,992 | | T Contract Position (Lots) | 265,904 | 262,611 | 3,293 | | TL Contract Position (Lots) | 183,244 | 181,782 | 1,462 | | TS Main Transaction (Lots) | 25,832 | 30,665 | -4,833 | | TF Main Transaction (Lots) | 45,116 | 54,788 | -9,672 | | T Main Transaction (Lots) | 76,221 | 76,613 | -392 | | TL Main Transaction (Lots) | 124,727 | 113,580 | 11,147 | [4]

国债期货日报 2025/10/20 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注资本市场情绪 盘面点评： 周一期债早盘低开低走，此后维持窄幅震荡，品种全线收跌。现券收益率全线上行，长端上行幅度较大。资 金面宽松，DR001在1.32%左右。公开市场逆回购1890亿，净回笼648亿。 日内消息： 1.10月LPR报价维持不变：5年期以上LPR为3.5%，1年期LPR为3%。 2. 中国前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%，三季度增长4.8%。1-9月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降0.5% ，9月社 会消费品零售总额同比增长3%，9月规模以上工业增加值同比 6.5%。 行情研判： 因周末贸易局势缓和，今日A股反弹，但成交继续萎缩，整体并不强势，债市在上周连续反弹后今日顺势调 整。数据方面，三季度GDP增速继续放缓，投资、消费逐渐乏力，房地产市场下行趋势持续，通缩态势未见 好转，四季度需要政策托举，基本面支持利率保持低位。四中全会今日开幕，关注"十五五"规划的政策方 向。短期来看，风险情绪难以回到9月的亢奋状态，整体上有利于债市。操作上，低位多单可继续持有，空仓 者逢 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to central bank dynamics. In the context of the tense Sino - US trade situation, the A - share market remained stable, and the bond market yield showed certain fluctuations. The market is in a TACO trading state. If the trade tension is short - term, it will not change the rhythm of monetary policy, and reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be postponed. The short - term market may remain in a volatile pattern. It is not advisable to chase high in operations, and long positions should wait for pullbacks to be established [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Performance - On Monday, bond futures opened higher across the board, with narrow fluctuations in the morning and a decline in the afternoon, resulting in a narrowing of gains. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. Open - market reverse repurchases were 13.78 billion yuan, with a net investment of 13.78 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Intra - day News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that China's export control of rare earths and other items is not a ban on exports, and hopes that the US will correct its mistakes and return to the right track of dialogue and negotiation. - Vance said that Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China, and he had a conversation with Trump over the weekend. Trump "cherishes" friendship with China, and both hope not to use more bargaining chips against China [2] 3.3 Market Analysis - In the tense Sino - US trade situation, the A - share market opened above 3800 points and closed slightly lower, maintaining a range - bound pattern. Bond yields decreased compared to Friday but increased compared to Saturday. The market is in a TACO trading state. If the trade tension is short - term, it won't change the monetary policy rhythm, and reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be postponed. The short - term market may not break out of the volatile pattern. It's not advisable to chase high, and long positions should wait for pullbacks [3] 3.4 Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 13 Price | 2025 - 10 - 10 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 10 - 13 Position (Hands) | 2025 - 10 - 10 Position (Hands) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.366 | 102.352 | 0.014 | 74436 | 74447 | - 11 | | TF2512 | 105.665 | 105.655 | 0.01 | 147179 | 145873 | 1306 | | T2512 | 108.05 | 107.96 | 0.09 | 252554 | 250716 | 1838 | | TL2512 | 114.37 | 114.02 | 0.35 | 172579 | 173374 | - 795 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0017 | - 0.0385 | 0.0402 | | | | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.001 | - 0.058 | 0.059 | | | | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.082 | 0.031 | 0.051 | | | | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.3522 | 0.2355 | 0.1167 | | | | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 31658 | 30556 | 1102 | | | | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 60280 | 50839 | 9441 | | | | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 85927 | 68299 | 17628 | | | | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 124744 | 108237 | 16507 | | | | [4]

国债期货日报 2025/09/25 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 号 观点：关注央行态度 盘面点评： 周四期债早盘低开低走，午后大幅反弹，尾盘TL翻红，其余品种微跌。现券收益率日内波动较大，日终与昨 日相差不大。公开市场逆回购4835亿，超额续作MLF 3000亿，净投放2965亿。资金面仍然趋紧，DR001回 升至1.48%。 日内消息： 1. 贝森特：不理解鲍威尔为何"退缩"，敦促年底前降息100-150个基点，正在面试11位美联储主席候选人。 | | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-24 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-24 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.3 | 102.324 | -0.024 | TS合约持仓(手） | 76969 | 75884 | 1085 | | TF2512 | 105.475 | 105.54 | -0.065 | TF合约持仓(手） | 151433 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. It points out that the short - term bond market lacks positive drivers, but after continuous declines, there's no need to be overly pessimistic. One can attempt bottom - fishing, stagger the purchase intervals for long positions, and control positions [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Wednesday, bond futures fluctuated in the morning and tumbled in the afternoon, with all varieties closing down. Spot bond yields rose across the board, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term. The open market had a net withdrawal of 1.7 billion yuan. The money market tightened marginally, and the DR001 rebounded to 1.44% [1] 3.2. Intraday News - Powell stated that the slowdown in the labor market prompts the Fed to cut interest rates. One must remain vigilant about inflation, there is no risk - free path for the Fed, and the stock market seems to be quite highly valued [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The market continued its weakness from the previous day in the morning, and the decline widened in the afternoon due to the rise of A - shares. The central bank continued a small - scale net withdrawal in the open market, and the money market tightened marginally. With 30 billion yuan of MLF maturing tomorrow, attention should be paid to the central bank's renewal scale. Factors such as the new rules on fund redemption fees and the strong stock market still suppress the bond market [3] 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures - For TS2512, the price on September 24, 2025, was 102.324, down 0.028 from the previous day, and the contract position increased by 476 to 75,884 hands. For TF2512, the price was 105.54, down 0.105, and the position increased by 1,924 to 146,202 hands. For T2512, the price was 107.62, down 0.135, and the position decreased by 40 to 246,217 hands. For TL2512, the price was 113.99, down 0.55, and the position increased by 1,459 to 168,081 hands. Trading volumes of all contracts decreased [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. It believes that the market decline today may be related to a widely - circulated fund fee interpretation memo. The shift from institutional redemptions of fund products to ETFs and special accounts may be an emerging trend, which will bring some pressure to the market in the short - term. With the current stable capital situation and the central bank's reluctance to over - invest, the market lacks positive drivers and is vulnerable to potential negative factors. Trading should adopt a volatile approach, and when buying long positions, the intervals should be widened [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1. Disk Review - On Tuesday, bond futures prices dropped rapidly after the opening, failed to rebound during the trading day, and all varieties closed lower. The open market only conducted 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 1.09 billion yuan. The capital situation tended to be stable, and the DR001 rate dropped to 1.41% [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - Federal Reserve Governor Milan estimated the neutral interest rate to be around 2.5% and proposed an additional 125 - basis - point interest rate cut within the year. However, three Fed officials poured cold water on the idea of rate cuts, stating that there is limited room for further action and no reason to cut rates again this year [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment - The main reason for today's market decline may be related to a fund fee interpretation memo. The shift from institutional redemptions of fund products to ETFs and special accounts is likely a long - term trend, which will bring some pressure to the market during the transition. Currently, the capital situation is stable, and the central bank's open - market fund withdrawal indicates its reluctance to over - invest. The market lacks positive drivers and is easily affected by potential negative factors. Trading should be based on a volatile strategy, and when buying long positions, the intervals should be widened [3]. 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 23 Price | 2025 - 09 - 22 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 23 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 22 Position (Lots) | Position Change (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 23 Trading Volume (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 22 Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.352 | 102.396 | - 0.044 | 75408 | 76728 | - 1320 | 38495 | 28858 | 9637 | | TF2512 | 105.645 | 105.76 | - 0.115 | 144278 | 151551 | - 7273 | 81508 | 50317 | 31191 | | T2512 | 107.755 | 107.945 | - 0.19 | 246257 | 251433 | - 5176 | 110179 | 79097 | 31082 | | TL2512 | 114.54 | 115.09 | - 0.55 | 166622 | 169375 | - 2753 | 154093 | 113691 | 40402 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0467 | - 0.0141 | - 0.0326 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0531 | 0.0369 | - 0.09 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0321 | 0.1268 | - 0.0947 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.623 | 0.6336 | - 0.0106 | - | - | - | - | - | - | [4] |

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests focusing on the central bank's attitude. Given the continued weakness in the bond market and the potential for further decline in Treasury bond futures the next day, it is recommended to wait and see for now [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Performance - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened and closed lower across the board. The decline of medium - and long - term varieties intensified in the afternoon, and spot bond yields rose across the board, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term. The open market had a net injection of 7.49 billion, but the capital market remained tight, with DR001 rising to around 1.43% [1]. - The prices of all contracts on the Treasury bond futures market decreased on September 10, 2025. For example, TS2512 dropped from 102.39 to 102.348, a decline of 0.042; TF2512 fell from 105.58 to 105.445, a decline of 0.135; T2512 decreased from 107.785 to 107.505, a decline of 0.28; and TL2512 dropped from 115.76 to 114.87, a decline of 0.89 [4]. - The contract positions of TS2512, T2512, and TL2512 increased, while that of TF2512 decreased. The trading volume of all main contracts increased [4]. b. Intraday News - The Ministry of Finance re - issued 5 - year Treasury bonds with a weighted winning bid rate of 1.5973% and a marginal rate of 1.6216%, and re - issued 50 - year Treasury bonds with a winning bid rate of 2.2227% [2]. - In August, China's CPI turned negative year - on - year, dropping 0.4%, while the core CPI rose to 0.9%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9% [2]. c. Market Analysis - The bond market continued its weak performance in the morning, and the decline intensified in the afternoon as the A - share market rebounded. Although the central bank increased its injection in the open market, the capital market did not improve. The winning bid situation of the re - issued 5 - year and 50 - year Treasury bonds in the primary market was better than expected, but it did not boost the secondary market sentiment. The economic data in August had a neutral impact on the bond market [3]. - After the futures market closed, spot bond yields continued to rise, indicating that Treasury bond futures may continue to decline the next day [3].

Group 1: Company Overview and Development - The company introduced its development history, core team, client situation, and main business operations [2] - Joykey's positioning, core team, and IP business model were presented, along with samples of IP products [2] - The company emphasizes that internal entrepreneurship and innovation have a low success rate, but it has a comprehensive incentive mechanism in place [2][3] Group 2: IP Business and Team Structure - The IP innovation business is directly led by the co-founder and president, ensuring a diverse and innovative team [4] - The team has made significant progress in three months, including the development of an IP matrix and digital collectibles [4] - The company plans to implement a closed-loop strategy for its IP products, leveraging existing resources and creating immersive consumer experiences [5] Group 3: Product Development and Commercialization - Current IP products are still in the sample stage, with no sales available yet; pricing and mass production timelines will be determined after market evaluation [5] - The company is accelerating the commercialization of its urban tourism model, with plans to launch in Q4 2025 [6][7] - The company encourages investors to be aware of market uncertainties and investment risks [7]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests a band - trading approach. It notes that on September 3, 2025, treasury bond futures rebounded as expected. Given the current situation where the 10 - year treasury bond yield has returned to 1.75% and the bond market lacks catalytic factors, caution should be exercised regarding the further upside potential. It advises against chasing high prices, setting profit - taking when bottom - fishing, and keeping a small long position at low levels [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Market Performance - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher, rose in the morning and then declined, fluctuated in the afternoon, and rose again at the end of the session, with all varieties closing up. Spot bond yields generally declined. There was a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion from the open market, and the funds were loose with DR001 at 1.31% [1]. - The A - share market continued to decline with a large adjustment range on this day. The morning rebound in the stock market reduced the bond market's gains, but the stock market's inability to stop the decline in the afternoon led to an expansion of the bond market's gains at the end of the session. The stock market had a volume - shrinking adjustment, and if it enters a range - bound state in the future, its impact on the bond market will gradually weaken [2]. 2. Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 03 Price | 2025 - 09 - 02 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 03 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 02 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.44 | 102.41 | 0.03 | 75575 | 74372 | 1203 | | TF2512 | 105.69 | 105.55 | 0.14 | 139553 | 138200 | 1353 | | T2512 | 108.12 | 107.93 | 0.19 | 213046 | 205357 | 7689 | | TL2512 | 117.03 | 116.61 | 0.42 | 142705 | 140312 | 2393 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0225 | - 0.04 | 0.0175 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 25604 | 21492 | 4112 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0846 | 0.0256 | 0.059 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 62433 | 52692 | 9741 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.4403 | 0.3548 | 0.0855 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 86857 | 60757 | 26100 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.7408 | 0.5696 | 0.1712 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 156936 | 116176 | 40760 | [3] 3. Other Information - U.S. technology stocks led the decline in the U.S. stock market, and the 30 - year treasury bond yields of the UK, Germany, and France reached multi - year highs. Gold futures broke through $3600, hitting a record high [2]. - Trump stated that he would request the Supreme Court to make a "quick ruling" on the global tariff case. If he wins, the stock market will rise sharply; otherwise, it will experience a huge shock. Bessent predicted that the Supreme Court would support Trump's tariff policy but was also considering alternative plans [2].

国债期货日报 2025年9月1日 股债保持低相关 观点：波段思路进行抄底 南华研究院 徐晨曦（Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 周一期债低开高走，品种全线收涨，中长债涨幅更大。现券收益率中长端下行较为明显。公开市场净回笼 1057亿。资金面宽松，DR001回落至1.31%。 日内消息： 1.中国8月标普制造业PMI回升至50.5，前值为49.5。此前公布的数据显示，8月官方制造业PMI小幅回升至 49.4。 source： wind,南华研究 T主力合约基差与IRR source： wind,南华研究 元 T基差：主连 T IRR：主连 % (右轴) 02/28 04/30 06/30 0 0.5 1 -1 0 1 2 3 4 TL主力合约基差与IRR source： wind,南华研究 元 TL基差：主连 TL IRR：主连(右轴) ％ 02/28 04/30 06/30 -1 0 1 -2 0 2 4 6 TF主力合约基差与IRR source： wind,南华研究 元 TF基差：主连 TF IRR：主连(右轴) ％ 02/28 04/30 06/30 -0 ...