2025 年 7 月份是化工行业行情的起点，这一时间点具有必然性和偶然性。首 先，从供给端来看，2025 年整个化工行业的新增产能基本落地或进入产能消 化阶段，各子行业的产能增速大幅下降，甚至未来几年可能出现供给收缩。这 种边际变化在报表上暂时未显现，但对市场影响深远。其次，2025 年 7 月中 央财经会议上，习近平总书记特别强调反内卷政策，这一政策导向对市场情绪 产生了积极影响。此外，当时化工板块股票位置、盈利和估值均较低，机构配 化工行业产能过剩问题若仅依靠市场化出清，要么不可行，要么代价过 大。需要通过提高标准和双碳政策引导来逐步实现反内卷，而不是像过 去那样一刀切地进行供给侧改革。 炼化和煤化工板块表现最佳的原因在于其产品种类丰富且体量大，具备 显著的成本优势，是双碳政策和反内卷政策的最先受益者，且在化工 ETF 中的权重较高，受政策影响的概率更大。 预计这波化工行情将持续两到三年甚至更长时间，由于反内卷及双碳政 策等慢变量因素影响，将使得整个过程更加持久。从供给端优化开始， 到盈利修复，再到需求迸发式增长，各个子行业将逐步迎来供不应求局 面。 化工行业产能增速大幅下降，未来几年可能出现供给收缩，但 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a clear trend of "East rising, West falling" in the global chemical industry, with Chinese companies leveraging cost advantages to capture market share as European chemical firms face high energy and compliance costs [1] - The "PX-PTA-Polyester filament" industry chain is expected to show resilience due to improved supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 2: PX Supply and Demand - PX production growth is limited, with no new capacity added since 2024, leading to a forecasted production increase of only 1% in 2026 [2][3] - The supply of PX is expected to remain tight in 2026, with only one new plant (200,000 tons) coming online in Q4, while demand is projected to grow by 5% due to downstream polyester industry expansions [3][30] Group 3: PTA Market Dynamics - The PTA industry is at a turning point, with a significant slowdown in capacity expansion expected after 2025, leading to a projected production growth of 5% in 2026 [4][42] - The concentration of PTA supply among a few major players (CR6 around 75%) is expected to facilitate better industry coordination and improve profitability [41][43] Group 4: Polyester Filament Outlook - The polyester filament industry is anticipated to benefit from a new round of production cuts, with expectations for a strong seasonal demand in the first half of the year [10][12] - The supply-demand balance for polyester filament is improving, with a projected production growth of 4% in 2026, driven by domestic consumption and favorable external factors [12][30]

Group 1 - Chemical ETF rose by 3.53%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.66 percentage points [1] - Elemental phosphorus and glyphosate were designated as critical defense materials by the U.S. government, which may benefit China's phosphate fertilizer and phosphate trade [1] - The U.S. EPA approved three glyphosate products for use on cotton and soybeans for two planting seasons [1] - The chemical fiber sector is entering a traditional peak season, with inventory depletion during the Spring Festival and rising prices for polyester and viscose fibers [1] - Tensions in the Middle East have led to an increase in oil prices, with ICE Brent crude at $71.54 per barrel, up 0.60% [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote carbon peaking, with restrictions on high-energy-consuming products expected to be implemented, indicating a turning point for the chemical industry [2] - Real estate policies are showing signs of stabilization in first-tier cities, suggesting a gradual recovery in the industry, with a focus on investment opportunities in the chemical-real estate chain [2] - The chemical industry index (000813) rose by 3.39%, with significant gains in stocks such as Andong Biological and Xingfa Group, both up over 10% [2] - The chemical ETF closely tracks the chemical industry index, which consists of large, liquid listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the sector [2] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the chemical industry index (000813) accounted for 44.82% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a positive start, with the U.S. announcing on February 18, 2026, that phosphorus and glyphosate will be classified as strategic resources [1] - The price of urea in India has reached a new high, with East Coast CFR at $512 per ton and West Coast CFR at $508 per ton, reflecting an increase of approximately $85 per ton compared to January [1] - Guojin Securities indicates that rising oil prices may lead to expectations of chemical price increases, while a potential decrease in geopolitical risk premiums could lower industry cost pressures, suggesting a favorable long-term outlook for leading midstream and downstream chemical companies [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., and others, accounting for a total of 44.82% of the index [2] - The Chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sub-industries [1][2]

相关生产商有：华锦股份(000059)双良节能（维权）(600481)万华化学(600309)海新能科(300072)荣盛石 化（维权）(002493)恒力石化(600346)中国石化(600028)东方盛虹(000301)等。 【周期股选股方法】周期股特指原材料生产型的上市公司，该公司的利润高低受原材料价格波动影响； 因此利用生意社原材料价格的涨跌数据，提前于季报与年报，发现周期股买入信号，是投资周期股的重 要方法。欢迎使用生意社股票通。 【周期股选股方法】周期股特指原材料生产型的上市公司，该公司的利润高低受原材料价格波动影响； 因此利用生意社原材料价格的涨跌数据，提前于季报与年报，发现周期股买入信号，是投资周期股的重 要方法。欢迎使用生意社股票通。 据生意社监测，苯乙烯02月23日最新价格7594.00元/吨，最近60天上涨13.55%。 相关生产商有：华锦股份(000059)双良节能（维权）(600481)万华化学(600309)海新能科(300072)荣盛石 化（维权）(002493)恒力石化(600346)中国石化(600028)东方盛虹(000301)等。 据生意社监测，苯乙烯02月23日最新价格 ...

石油ETF（561360）业绩比较基准为中证油气产业指数收益率，管理人为国泰基金管理有限公司，基金 经理为苗梦羽，成立（2023-10-23）以来回报为43.80%，近一个月回报为11.02%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月24日，截止午间收盘，石油ETF（561360）涨6.52%，报1.536元，成交额3.01亿元。石油ETF （561360）重仓股方面，中国石油截止午盘涨5.88%，中国海油涨8.20%，中国石化涨3.45%，杰瑞股份 涨5.15%，招商轮船涨9.35%，广汇能源涨6.65%，中远海能涨9.20%，恒力石化涨5.01%，荣盛石化涨 4.66%，洲际油气涨9.92%。 ...

【天风能源】涤纶协同低库存开局，进一步打开产业链涨价空间 1涤纶低开工低库存过年得以实现：春节期间涤纶长丝行业负荷最低到75%，相比前两年同期低5％，正月初七目 前涤纶长丝POY权益库存在18天，综合社会库存34天，相比去年低一星期。 考虑到目前终端库存偏低，且关税环境小幅改善，预计26年需求开局有望偏乐观。 3价格利润：节后涤纶价格普涨50-100块，目前poy行业吨利润达到400多块，fdy200多块，比五年均值改善200-300 块。 4全年格局有望保持强势：px年底前无新产能，PTA年内无新，涤纶新装置237万吨但考虑老装置停车实际净增可 能有限，春节期间限产初见成效开局有利。 【天风能源】涤纶协同低库存开局，进一步打开产业链涨价空间 1涤纶低开工低库存过年得以实现：春节期间涤纶长丝行业负荷最低到75%，相比前两年同期低5％，正月初七目 前涤纶长丝POY权益库存在18天，综合社会库存34天，相比去年低一星期。 节前织造提前停产+涤纶提前降负荷，带来了两环节双双去库局面。 px春节期间高负荷达到92％，3月份进入检修季有望去库。 2需求：节后需要关注下游复工进度和下游接单情况。 节前织造提前停产+涤纶提 ...

2026年2月24日早盘，截至11:04，中证细分化工产业主题指数强势上涨2.81%，成分股和邦生物上涨 10.08%，川发龙蟒上涨10.00%，云天化上涨7.35%，兴发集团，钛能化学等个股跟涨。 国海证券指出，反内卷有望重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望使全球化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓。中国 化工行业具有充沛的经营活动现金流净额，一旦扩张放缓，潜在股息率将大幅提升，有望实现从吞金兽 到摇钱树的转变；同时，供给端的改变将带来景气度的止跌回升，化工标的有望兼具高弹性和高股息的 优势。 华福证券认为，随着海内外经济回暖，主要化工品价格与需求均步入修复通道。化工行业龙头企业历经 多年竞争和扩张，具有显著规模优势，且通过研发投入持续夯实成本护城河，核心竞争力显著。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证细分化工产业主题指数前十大权重股分别为万华化学、盐湖股 份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、巨化股份、宝丰能源、云天化、荣盛石化，前十大权 重股合计占比44.82%。 化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，聚焦行业"反内卷"背景下新一轮景气周 期。 场外投资者还可以通过化工ETF联接基金 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing significant positive developments, particularly in four key areas: phosphorus chemicals, disperse dyes, titanium dioxide, and non-ferrous metals [1] - An executive order signed by Trump on February 18, 2026, aims to secure domestic production of phosphorus and glyphosate herbicides, addressing supply chain vulnerabilities, as the U.S. relies heavily on a single domestic producer [1] - Zhejiang Longsheng announced a price increase for disperse dyes effective February 24, with a notable rise of 2000 yuan per ton for disperse black [1] - Longbai Group has issued a price adjustment notice for titanium dioxide, with cumulative price increases of 1200 yuan per ton over November and December [1] - The non-ferrous metals market is shifting, with expectations of interest rate cuts potentially influencing the spring market dynamics [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) has its top ten weighted stocks, including Wanhua Chemical and Yanhua Co., accounting for 44.82% of the index [2] - The CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index closely tracks the performance of major listed companies in the chemical sector, reflecting the overall performance of the industry [2]

化工ETF（159870），联接基金（A类 014942，C类 014943，I类 022792） 万华化学（600309）、盐湖股份（000792）、藏格矿业（000408）、天赐材料（002709）、华鲁恒升 （600426）、巨化股份（600160）、恒力石化（600346）、宝丰能源（600989）、云天化（600096）、 荣盛石化（002493） 截至02月24日09:45，化工ETF(159870.SZ)上涨1.98%，其关联指数细分化工(000813.CSI)上涨1.97%；主 要成分股中，盐湖股份上涨4.52%，云天化上涨8.24%，万华化学上涨1.52%，兴发集团上涨5.98%，龙 佰集团上涨4.58%。 关联产品： 消息面上，1) 美国最高法院裁定特朗普关税政策违法，但新关税框架生效引发市场波动，短期利好非 美资产，化工行业或受益于关税影响减弱及全球经济复苏预期；2) TMP行业因供应端收缩（万华等厂 商退出产能）及需求旺盛（百川股份排产至3月底/4月）推动价格上涨，相关化工企业成本传导顺畅； 3) 电子布与玻纤行业分化，玻纤需求受风电、基建回暖支撑，头部企业通过产能调整应对市场波动， ...