嵇少峰，江苏微金创联科技董事长、普惠金融专家 刘晓春，上海新金融研究院副院长 刘晓曙，青岛银行首席经济学家 2025年，中国经济在转型攻坚中稳步向好，新动能加快培育，政策协同发力支撑经济回升向好、行稳致 远。各界意见领袖以敏锐的时代洞察、理性的专业表达和广泛的社会影响力，聚焦民生关切、解读发展 逻辑、传递市场信心，在多元视角中凝聚共识，在时代浪潮中引领思考。 新浪财经携手首席经济学家论坛、新经济学家智库，评选出"2025年度十大意见领袖"。 本次评选由评委会综合"专业性、影响力、创新性、前瞻性、活跃度"五大维度，经评审团投票，并参考 作品出产率、互联网声量等数据，综合评选出最终获奖结果。 "2025年度十大意见领袖"名单（按照拼音首字母顺序排序）： 2025年，中国经济在转型攻坚中稳步向好，新动能加快培育，政策协同发力支撑经济回升向好、行稳致 远。各界意见领袖以敏锐的时代洞察、理性的专业表达和广泛的社会影响力，聚焦民生关切、解读发展 逻辑、传递市场信心，在多元视角中凝聚共识，在时代浪潮中引领思考。 新浪财经携手首席经济学家论坛、新经济学家智库，评选出"2025年度十大意见领袖"。 本次评选由评委会综合"专业性 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2026, listed banks have experienced intensive institutional research, particularly focusing on small and medium-sized banks in economically developed coastal regions [1] Group 1: Institutional Research and Credit Performance - As of February 9, 2026, 13 listed banks have undergone 54 institutional research sessions, with 386 participating institutions [2] - Key topics of interest include the performance of credit in the "opening red" period, the "14th Five-Year Plan," asset-liability management, and wealth management [2] - Multiple analysts noted that the credit performance in the opening of 2026 is strong, with banks actively developing wealth management and other intermediary businesses [2][4] Group 2: Focus on Credit Allocation - Credit allocation is primarily directed towards the technology and innovation sectors [3] - Banks reported that their credit issuance aligns with expectations, with overall performance better than the previous year [4] - For instance, Suzhou Bank and Hangzhou Bank indicated a good start to the "opening red" period, with increased credit issuance compared to the same period last year [4] - Shanghai Bank focuses on major strategic projects in Shanghai, while also expanding housing mortgages and loans for new energy vehicles in retail [4] Group 3: Intermediary Business Income - Banks are looking to expand intermediary business income as a core strategy to address margin pressure, with wealth management being a key area of focus [6][7] - Analysts from various banks believe that wealth management will continue to improve, driven by active capital market performance and a favorable environment for fee income [7] - The trend of "deposit migration" is not significantly observed, with many banks reporting an increase in new deposits compared to the previous year [7] Group 4: Preliminary Annual Performance Reports - As of February 9, 2026, 11 listed banks have released preliminary performance reports, showing positive growth in operating income and net profit [8][9] - Notably, Qingdao Bank and Qilu Bank reported net profit growth of 21.66% and 14.58%, respectively [9][10] Group 5: Asset Quality and Growth Trends - The asset scale of the listed banks has shown steady expansion, with many small and medium-sized banks growing at rates exceeding 10% [12] - The non-performing loan ratio remains stable, with no significant rebound observed [12] - Analysts expect that the recent implementation of structural monetary policy tools by the central bank will help stabilize net interest margin expectations and enhance credit issuance willingness [12]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2026, listed banks have experienced intensive institutional research, particularly focusing on small and medium-sized banks in economically developed coastal regions [1] Group 1: Institutional Research and Credit Performance - As of February 9, 2026, 13 listed banks have undergone 54 institutional research sessions, with 386 participating institutions [2] - Key topics of interest include the performance of credit in the "opening red" period, the "14th Five-Year Plan," asset-liability management, and wealth management [2] - Many banks reported a good start to the "opening red" period, with credit performance exceeding expectations compared to the previous year [4] Group 2: Focus on Credit Allocation - Credit allocation is primarily directed towards the technology and innovation sectors, with banks aligning their strategies with regional characteristics [3][4] - For instance, Shanghai Bank focuses on major strategic projects in Shanghai, while Qingdao Bank emphasizes technology finance and advanced manufacturing [5] - Analysts noted that the credit "opening red" performance is strong, with state-owned banks and high-quality city commercial banks showing positive feedback [5] Group 3: Middle Business Income Recovery - Banks are focusing on expanding middle business income as a core strategy to address margin pressure, with wealth management being a key area [6][7] - Many banks are enhancing their wealth management capabilities through diversified product offerings and improved customer service [7] - Analysts expect that wealth management will continue to drive fee income growth, supported by a favorable capital market environment [8] Group 4: Preliminary Annual Performance Reports - As of February 9, 2026, 11 listed banks have released preliminary performance reports, showing positive growth in operating income and net profit [9] - Notably, Qingdao Bank and Qilu Bank reported net profit growth of 21.66% and 14.58%, respectively [10] - The overall asset scale of these banks has expanded steadily, with many small and medium-sized banks achieving growth rates exceeding 10% [11] Group 5: Profit Growth Stability - Analysts believe that the stable profit growth of listed banks is due to a narrowing decline in interest margins and improved middle business income [12] - The recent implementation of structural monetary policy tools by the central bank is expected to stabilize net interest margin expectations and enhance credit issuance willingness [12]

Core Viewpoint - A-share listed banks have shown positive growth in net profit for 2025, with all 11 banks reporting an increase, and four banks achieving double-digit growth, led by Qingdao Bank at 21.66% [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Qingdao Bank reported a net profit of 518.77 million yuan, up from 426.41 million yuan, marking a growth rate of 21.66% [2]. - Qilu Bank and Hangzhou Bank followed with net profit growth rates of 14.58% and 12.05%, respectively [5]. - In terms of total assets, China Merchants Bank leads with 13.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.56% [4]. - The overall asset quality of the banks remains stable, with most banks reporting a decrease or stability in non-performing loan ratios [5][6]. Group 2: Revenue Trends - Revenue growth among the banks is varied, with only CITIC Bank experiencing a slight decline of 0.55% [4]. - Nanjing Bank led in revenue growth with a 10.48% increase, while Ningbo Bank and Qingdao Bank reported increases of 8.01% and 7.97%, respectively [4][5]. - The overall revenue growth for A-share listed banks is expected to improve in 2025, driven by narrowing interest margins and increased impairment contributions [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the banking sector's performance in 2026, with expectations of stable credit growth and improved profitability [9][10]. - The investment focus for 2026 includes identifying banks with potential for growth, particularly Ningbo Bank and China Merchants Bank, and those with convertible bond expectations like Industrial Bank [10]. - The overall market capitalization of the banking sector has surpassed 15 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [6].

行业相对指数表现 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 2026-02 -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 银行 沪深300 证券研究报告：银行|行业周报 证券研究报告：银行|金融数据预测月报 发布时间：2026-02-10 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 3971.44 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 4670.31 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3824.91 | 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《部分信贷或后置至次年》 - 2026.01.08 1 月金融数据前瞻 （2026.1.6-2026.2.9） 预计社融同比多增 l 投资要点 （1）预计 1 月新增信贷整体小幅少增：预计 1 月新增人民币贷 款（信贷口径）约 51000-52000 亿元，相较上年同期小幅少增。新增 实体人民币贷款（社融口径）约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market saw a broad increase in bank stocks, with Shanghai Bank, Construction Bank, CITIC Bank, Minsheng Bank, Bank of Communications, and Zheshang Bank all rising over 1% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Shanghai Bank (601229) increased by 1.82%, with a total market capitalization of 142.8 billion and a year-to-date decline of 0.50% [2] - Construction Bank (601939) rose by 1.58%, holding a market cap of 2,354.4 billion, and has a year-to-date decline of 3.02% [2] - CITIC Bank (601998) saw a rise of 1.47%, with a market cap of 421.8 billion and a year-to-date decline of 1.56% [2] - Minsheng Bank (600016) increased by 1.27%, with a market cap of 174.3 billion and a year-to-date increase of 3.92% [2] - Bank of Communications (601328) rose by 1.19%, with a market cap of 602.6 billion and a year-to-date decline of 5.93% [2] - Zheshang Bank (601916) increased by 1.01%, with a market cap of 82.4 billion and a year-to-date decline of 1.32% [2] Group 2: Additional Bank Performance - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077) rose by 0.91%, with a market cap of 75.6 billion and a year-to-date increase of 6.49% [2] - Everbright Bank (601818) increased by 0.90%, with a market cap of 198.5 billion and a year-to-date decline of 0.78% [2] - Nanjing Bank (6000009) rose by 0.89%, with a market cap of 140.5 billion and a year-to-date decline of 0.61% [2] - Lanzhou Bank (001227) increased by 0.86%, with a market cap of 13.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 3.46% [2] - Postal Savings Bank (601658) rose by 0.77%, with a market cap of 626.9 billion and a year-to-date decline of 2.05% [2] - Agricultural Bank (601288) increased by 0.75%, with a market cap of 2,365.9 billion and a year-to-date decline of 11.98% [2] - Bank of China (601988) rose by 0.74%, with a market cap of 1,746.4 billion and a year-to-date decline of 5.41% [2] - Qingdao Bank (002948) increased by 0.72%, with a market cap of 32.5 billion and a year-to-date increase of 24.78% [2]

Summary of Conference Call on Banking Sector Outlook Industry Overview - The conference focused on the banking sector, specifically discussing the performance and outlook of 11 listed banks in China for the year 2025 and beyond [1][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Overall Performance of Banks - The performance of the 11 banks exceeded expectations, indicating a robust resilience in the banking sector [1][6]. - The net interest margin (NIM) showed signs of stabilization, with a narrowing year-on-year decline contributing significantly to interest income and revenue growth [1][2]. 2. Sensitivity of Interest Income - Interest income is highly sensitive to changes in NIM; a decrease of 10 basis points (BP) in NIM could reduce net interest income growth by 7 percentage points, while a 5 BP decrease would result in a 3.5 percentage point reduction [2]. 3. Fee Income Recovery - There has been a recovery in fee income due to improved capital market conditions and asset allocation by residents, leading to a continuous improvement in bank fees [2][4]. 4. Potential for Old Bond Gains - The banks hold significant unrealized gains on old bonds, which presents a substantial opportunity for realization [3]. 5. Positive Outlook for 2026 - The overall judgment is that the situation in 2026 will be better than in 2025, driven by stable basis points, improving fees, and gains from old bonds [3]. 6. Investment Perspective - The investment strategy focuses on absolute returns, targeting a return on equity (ROE) of around 13% and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.67 times, indicating a reasonable pricing range [3][4]. - The recommendation is to select stocks based on high growth and high dividend yield, particularly in regions like Jiangsu, Nanjing, and Qilu [4][5]. 7. Performance of Specific Banks - Notable banks such as China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank showed positive revenue growth, with some banks transitioning from negative to positive growth [6][7]. - City commercial banks like Nanjing Bank and Qingdao Bank reported double-digit revenue growth, indicating strong performance [7][10]. 8. Asset Quality and Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) - The asset quality remains stable, with many banks reporting a decrease in NPL ratios. For instance, Qingdao Bank's NPL ratio dropped significantly [10][11]. - The overall trend suggests a gradual improvement in asset quality, with expectations for continued stability in 2026 [11][12]. 9. Credit Growth and Demand - Credit growth is expected to remain strong, particularly in major provinces like Sichuan and Jiangsu, which reported credit growth rates above 8% [12][13]. - The demand for corporate loans remains robust, while retail loan demand is weaker [12]. 10. Future Risks and Projections - There are concerns regarding the potential exposure of retail loans, particularly in mortgage and consumer credit segments, but the overall increase in NPLs is expected to be limited [16][17]. - Projections for 2025 indicate a slight increase in NPL ratios for retail loans, but overall asset quality is expected to remain stable [17][18]. 11. Revenue Growth Expectations - The banking sector is projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of approximately 1.2% year-on-year, with city commercial banks leading in net profit growth [19][20]. 12. Stock Selection Strategy - The stock selection strategy emphasizes high ROE and high dividend yield, with recommendations for both Hong Kong and A-share listed banks [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of wealth management in driving fee income, with expectations for continued positive contributions to revenue [19]. - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the banking sector's ability to navigate challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities in the coming years [22].

A股这7大板块，勾勒出中 国经济全貌 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 妙投团队 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | AI制图 幸福的人大致相同，不幸的人各有各的不幸。 银河证券研报显示，截至1月31日，2956家A股上市公司已披露2025年年报业绩预告，披露率为54%。其中 电机、地面兵装、个护用品、风电设备预喜率 （包括扭亏、续盈、略增、预增等情形） 超过70%，汽车行 业超过50%，受益于AI算力需求的电子和通信行业，预喜率分别达到45%和37%。这些大体上属于科技、高 端制造、新消费等领域。 而传统行业，大多较为一般。 煤炭、房地产、轻工制造、建筑装饰、食品饮料、社会服务、石油石化等行业预喜率较低，均低于25%； 焦炭、体育、林业、农业综合、厨卫电器、油气开采、白酒行业预喜率更是均为0%；传统行业中预喜率较 高的，主要是非银金融、有色金属、钢铁、公用事业等少数行业。 展望2026年，有些业绩不错的行业，有望继续保持成长。而有些2025年经营惨淡的行业，也有边际复苏的 机会，或者有复苏的预期。 这句话放到宏观经济各个层面中来看，也是如此。有的行业经历着良好的增长，有的行业在期待着复苏的 曙光。 2025年到现在，无 ...

近日，在中国人民银行山东省分行主办的"2025年山东省跨境人民币业务竞赛"中，青岛银行凭借过硬的 业务实力与优异的综合表现，从全省70余家参赛银行机构中脱颖而出，成功斩获"团体一等奖"，成为本 次竞赛中唯一获此殊荣的省内城市商业银行。 立足企业实际需求，青岛银行以CIPS系统为依托，持续创新跨境金融服务场景，为不同类型企业量身 定制智能化综合服务方案。针对集团企业多头开户、资金管理分散的痛点，该行创新推出"CIPS跨行账 户集中可视服务"，实现"一个平台、一套标准"的集团账户全景可视化管理，助力企业集中掌握跨银行 账户的基础信息、资金余额及交易明细，大幅提升集团资金管理效率与风险管控能力，为企业跨境资金 运营提供专业解决方案。 心系民生显担当 开通跨境捐款"绿色通道" 金融有温度，服务暖人心。2025年11月香港大埔火灾发生后，青岛银行第一时间开通跨境人民币捐 款"绿色通道"，全力支援香港大埔火灾的人员搜救、伤员救治及善后安抚工作。该通道实现爱心款项汇 付"免审核、秒到账，零费用、速支援"，为社会各界向香港灾区传递爱心搭建便捷高效的金融桥梁，以 实际行动践行地方法人银行的社会责任与使命担当。 此次获奖，是监管 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The trade return ratio has turned positive again, and the service trade deficit has significantly narrowed [16][18] - The cross-border capital flow is expected to gradually return, positively impacting domestic liquidity [5][19] - The service trade deficit for December 2025 was 966 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 466 billion CNY, with a full-year deficit of 13,760 billion CNY, down 2,544 billion CNY, approximately 16% [18] Summary by Sections 1. Current Observation - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) released data on China's international balance of payments for December 2025, indicating a potential impact on the central bank's willingness to settle foreign exchange [16] - The trade return ratio is at a historical high, with a monthly unconverted trade net outflow of 447 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1,392 billion CNY [17] 2. Arbitrage Trading Returns - The arbitrage trading return rate for 10Y US Treasury bonds in CNY has dropped significantly to -1.77%, indicating a shift in cross-border capital dynamics [17] 3. Service Trade Deficit - The service trade deficit has narrowed significantly, with major contributions from improved policies for foreign visitors, reduced international shipping costs, and enhanced competitiveness in high-tech services [18] 4. Cross-Border Liquidity Outlook - Despite the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, the trend of cross-border capital return is expected to continue, influenced by the Fed's monetary policy stance [19][21] - The short-term liquidity in the US remains tight, with limited space for balance sheet reduction, while long-term prospects depend on economic performance [20][21]