Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is facing dual challenges of technological upgrades and supply chain adjustments, with TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity expansion potentially slowing down. NVIDIA's Blackwell 300 (B300) mass production may reshape the supply chain landscape [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's CoWoS Capacity Adjustments - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on TSMC, noting that the slowdown in CoWoS capacity expansion is due to improved yield rates of CoWoS-L technology and mismatches in downstream assembly and packaging capacity [2]. - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to increase from 35-40 thousand pieces per month at the end of 2024 to 70 thousand pieces per month by the end of 2025, down from a previous estimate of 80 thousand pieces per month. By the end of 2026, capacity is projected to reach 110 thousand pieces per month, revised from 120 thousand pieces per month [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - There are various speculations regarding TSMC's recent downward adjustment of the 2025 CoWoS capacity target, with some attributing it to NVIDIA's AI GPU demand reduction. However, supply chain analysts indicate that TSMC is continuously adjusting its capacity based on client chip shipment expectations and blueprint corrections [4][5]. - Despite the slight downward adjustment for 2025, TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to continue growing, with new capacity from the Southern Taiwan Science Park anticipated to come online in 2026, allowing for visibility of orders through 2029 [4][6]. Group 3: NVIDIA's Role and Future Outlook - NVIDIA remains TSMC's largest customer, accounting for over 60% of CoWoS capacity, despite some other clients reducing orders. The AI development is still in its early stages, and NVIDIA's performance continues to exceed market expectations [7][8]. - The upcoming release of the GB200 and the B300 in the second half of the year, along with the anticipated 3nm Rubin platform in 2026, suggests that the operational outlook for TSMC and its supply chain partners remains positive for 2025 and 2026 [7][8].

Core Insights - NVIDIA is expected to launch the GB300 chip ahead of schedule in Q2 2025, with improvements in computing performance, memory capacity, network connectivity, and power management compared to the GB200 chip [1] - The GB300 chip and Compute Tray are projected to begin production in May 2025, with ODMs starting initial engineering sample designs [1] - The demand for specialized products in the Chinese market has significantly increased due to the DeepSeek effect [1] Summary by Sections GB300 Specifications - The GB300 NVL72 features upgraded networking specifications to meet higher bandwidth requirements, enhancing overall computing performance [2] - The TDP for the GB300 system is expected to rise to between 135KW and 140KW, with most manufacturers continuing to use liquid cooling methods to ensure effective heat dissipation [2] Cooling Component Design - The cooling plate design for the GB300 will shift from an integrated module to individual chip installations, increasing the value of the cooling plates in the Compute Tray [3] - The change in design will lead to a significant increase in the usage of quick disconnects (QDs), with more suppliers expected to join the market for GB300 [3] Market Dynamics - The GB200 and GB300 Rack solutions' market performance will be influenced by several factors, including the ongoing impact of the DeepSeek effect and potential shifts in customer preferences towards self-developed ASICs or simpler, cost-effective AI server solutions [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent approval of individual stock leveraged and inverse ETFs in Hong Kong, which is expected to boost retail investor engagement in the market [1][2][3] - The Hong Kong ETF market is projected to grow by 24% in 2024, but it lags behind the Asia-Pacific and global growth rates of 32% [2] - The introduction of new product types and inflows from mainland China are identified as key factors for the development of the Hong Kong ETF market by 2025 [2][3] Group 2 - The current market size of leveraged and inverse ETFs in Hong Kong is approximately $330 million, while the derivatives-based ETF market is still in its early stages with only $13 million in assets [2] - The first batch of individual stock leveraged and inverse ETFs will focus on overseas stocks, with U.S. stocks likely being a popular choice among investors [3] - Retail investors are crucial for the growth of the Hong Kong ETF market, as the U.S. ETF market has attracted significant institutional funds due to lower fees and higher liquidity [3][4] Group 3 - Alibaba's stock surged by 15% following its earnings report, reflecting strong growth in its cloud business and increasing capital expenditures, which are seen as indicators of the performance of the Chinese tech sector [5] - The MSCI China Index and the Korean Index are competing for leadership in the market, with investor sentiment remaining cautious towards the Taiwan market due to potential impacts from U.S. tariffs on semiconductors [4][5]

中金公司 电子掘金：GTC2025 前瞻 20250316 英伟达 GTC2025 大会将是观察行业变化的重要窗口，以下几点值得重点关注： PCB 板块近期表现如何？其背后的驱动因素是什么？ 摘要 Q&A 今年以来算力硬件板块的市场表现如何？有哪些核心原因导致了这一现象？ 今年以来，算力硬件板块整体表现较好，尤其在关注度上持续走高。然而，相 对于应用端，市场表现相对较弱。以英伟达为代表的美股 AI 算力硬件公司及 A 股 GPU 制造链条上的公司股价都有所回调。主要原因包括以下几点： i. Deepseek 带来的创新：Deepseek 通过算法和工程技术上的创新，实现了 AI 模型的快速训练和低成本部署，显著降低了对传统高算力芯片的依赖。 • Deepseek 的创新算法降低了对高算力芯片的依赖，引发了市场对中短期算 力需求通缩的担忧，尽管长期可能激发更大需求，但预训练竞争和推理端 应用普及的不确定性是关键考量。 • 云服务厂商如谷歌、亚马逊和微软正积极推出专有 AI 芯片，Meta 也与台 积电合作开发专用芯片，博通预计未来三到五年内 ASIC 芯片将占据 AI 加 速器市场约 10%的份额，对 GPU ...

在近日为三星及其附属公司召开的高管研讨会上，李在镕通过视频信息表示："三星面临着生存的问 题。 "重要的不是危机本身，而是我们面对危机的态度。我们必须投资未来的法院，即使这意味着牺牲眼 前的利益。"他在信息中说道。 李在镕本人在视频中出现。他自今年2月首尔高等法院维持下级对他的所有刑事指控的处罚后，平复 了自公开讲话以来的 数十年的法律风险。 如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容 编译自kedglobal ，谢谢。 三星电子公司董事长李在镕警告公司高管，这家韩国科技派对已经失去了其特有一段"不屈不挠"的 三星精神，呼吁他们以"不战则死"的态度克服当前的危机。 全球最大的内存芯片制造商三星不仅在半导体领域面临严峻的竞争，在智能手机市场也同样如此。 在代工领域，三星显然落后于台湾的台积电，而在先进内存芯片，尤其是高带宽内存（HBM）方 面，三星落后于本土本土SK海力士。2024 年最后一个季度，三星代工部门的营业亏损超过2万亿韩元（14亿美元）。 今年以来，其股价已上涨8%，远低于SK海力士类似20.6%的涨幅。 三星已对其系统芯片和代工业务进行严格审查，可能会进行业务改革，包括高管改组和员工调动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant financial losses experienced by major tech companies since Donald Trump's presidency began, highlighting a total loss of $204 billion and the negative impact of his economic policies on the semiconductor industry [2]. Group 1: Financial Impact on Tech Companies - Since Trump's inauguration, major tech companies have collectively lost $204 billion, contrasting with the initial optimism surrounding AI and semiconductor stocks [2]. - The semiconductor sector, which had seen stock price increases post-Trump's election victory, is now facing declines due to rising trade tensions and economic recession fears [2]. - Morgan Stanley has raised the risk of economic recession from 30% to 40%, reflecting investor concerns about Trump's economic policies [2]. Group 2: Semiconductor Companies' Performance - Nvidia's stock has dropped 14% this year, reflecting investor anxiety over demand for high-end technology and the impact of tariffs [6][8]. - TSMC's stock has fallen nearly 15% due to concerns over trade wars and rising production costs, despite announcing a $100 billion investment plan in the U.S. [9]. - Broadcom's stock has decreased by 17% this year, despite strong earnings, as it struggles to keep pace with Nvidia in the AI semiconductor market [12][14]. Group 3: Legislative and Policy Challenges - Trump's criticism of the $52 billion CHIPS Act, which aims to support domestic semiconductor manufacturing, adds complexity to the industry's outlook [3][4]. - The U.S. Commerce Department's dismissal of 40 staff members responsible for the CHIPS program suggests potential cuts to key semiconductor initiatives [4]. - Intel's future recovery is jeopardized by the uncertain fate of the CHIPS Act, which could have provided up to $8.5 billion in funding [15]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for AI Market - Despite current challenges, the long-term outlook for the AI market remains optimistic, with projections indicating growth from $233 billion in 2024 to $1.77 trillion by 2032 [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [3][41]. Core Insights - The domestic electronic industry experienced a slight decline of 0.62% last week, with a valuation percentile of 80% over the past 10 years, indicating strong domestic performance compared to overseas semiconductor indices [3][8]. - Notable individual stocks that performed well include Shenghong Technology, Litong Electronics, Nanya New Materials, and Jianghai Co., which have gained market recognition [3][8]. - The semiconductor sector saw a year-on-year export growth of 11.91% in the first two months of 2025, with the top ten wafer foundries expected to achieve record revenues in Q4 2024 [4][26]. Industry Data Tracking - The DRAM market is showing signs of recovery, particularly for DDR5 products, with SK Hynix experiencing strong demand and prices rising to $4.95 per unit [10]. - The eMMC market is also seeing steady price increases, driven by strong demand despite limited transaction volumes [11]. - China's integrated circuit exports reached $25.104 billion, reflecting a significant increase in trade activity [26]. Key Industry News - The smartphone production is expected to increase by 9.2% in Q4 2024, driven by Apple's production peak and consumer subsidies in China [30]. - The PC market in mainland China is projected to grow by 3% in 2025, following a rebound in Q4 2024 [30]. - The panel market is facing potential price increases due to U.S. tariff policies, which may affect future pricing strategies [32]. Company Announcements - Shenghong Technology reported a net profit increase of 272.12% to 367.54% for Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [34]. - The company Xinyuan Micro plans to acquire Aisheng for its display driver chips and related technologies [40]. - Huahai Chengke is set to acquire a 70% stake in Hengsuohuawei, a semiconductor packaging materials company, for 1.12 billion yuan [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [3][41]. Core Insights - The domestic electronic industry experienced a slight decline of 0.62% last week, with a valuation percentile of 80% over the past 10 years, indicating strong relative performance compared to overseas semiconductor indices [3][8]. - Notable individual stocks that performed well include Shenghong Technology, Litong Electronics, Nanya New Materials, and Jianghai Co., which have gained market recognition [3][8]. - The semiconductor sector saw a year-on-year export growth of 11.91% in the first two months of 2025, with the top ten wafer foundries expected to achieve record revenues in Q4 2024 [4][26]. - The smartphone production is projected to increase by 9.2% in Q4 2024, driven by Apple's production peak and subsidy policies in China [5][30]. - The report highlights the upcoming NVIDIA GTC conference as a significant event for monitoring technological advancements in AI and semiconductor sectors [41]. Industry Data Tracking - The DRAM market is showing signs of recovery, particularly for DDR5 products, with prices rising due to strong demand [10][11]. - The eMMC market is also experiencing steady price increases, although transaction volumes have not significantly surged [11]. - China's integrated circuit exports reached $25.1 billion in the first two months of 2025, marking an 11.91% increase year-on-year [26]. - The PC market in mainland China is expected to grow by 3% in 2025, following a rebound in Q4 2024 [30]. Key Industry News - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a significant increase in demand, with the top ten foundries projected to generate $38.48 billion in revenue in Q4 2024, a nearly 10% increase from the previous quarter [26][29]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to see a modest increase in smartphone production in 2025, with a forecasted growth of 1.5% [30]. - The panel market is facing potential price increases due to tariff adjustments, which may affect procurement strategies [32]. Company Announcements - Shenghong Technology reported a net profit increase of 272.12% to 367.54% for Q1 2025 compared to the same period last year [34]. - The company Xinyuan Micro plans to acquire Aisheng Technology, which specializes in display driver chips and related products [40]. - Huahai Chengke is set to acquire a 70% stake in Hengsu Huawai, a leading semiconductor packaging materials company, for 1.12 billion yuan [38].

➢ 风险提示 AI 大模型需求不及预期；下游终端出货不及预期；市场竞争加剧 风险；地缘政治风险；行业景气不及预期。 | + | | --- | 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 电子 2025 年 03 月 17 日 电子 存储大厂涨价，关注存储产业链 投资要点： ➢ 建议关注存储产业链重点公司： ➢ 德明利、江波龙、佰维存储、香农芯创、朗科科技、同有科技、 兆易创新、普冉股份、东芯股份、恒烁股份、聚辰股份、北京君正、 澜起科技等。 3、【华福电子】行业专题报告：智能驾驶大势所 趋，车载 CIS 蓄势待发——2025.02.17 证 券 研 究 报 告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 行 业 研 究 -0.20 -0.06 0.08 0.22 0.36 0.50 3/18 5/29 8/9 10/20 12/31 3/13 电子 沪深300 团队成员 | 分析师： | 杨钟(S0210522110003) | | --- | --- | | YZ3979@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 郭其伟(S0210523080001) | | gqw30259@hfzq. ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronics sector, indicating a moderate recovery in demand and recommending focus on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven innovations, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [5][6]. Core Insights - The upcoming NVIDIA GTC 2025 conference is expected to unveil new AI chip platforms, which could create opportunities in the AI industry chain [5][10]. - North China Huachuang is projected to rank sixth among the top ten global semiconductor equipment suppliers in 2024, with plans to acquire control of ChipSource to enhance its semiconductor equipment capabilities [5][12]. - The electronics industry is currently experiencing a mild recovery, with a recommendation to focus on specific sectors such as AIOT and consumer electronics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry News - NVIDIA's GTC conference will feature over 1,000 presentations and is expected to introduce the new AI chip platform "Rubin" [10]. - North China Huachuang plans a two-step acquisition of ChipSource to strengthen its semiconductor equipment supply chain [10][12]. - Intel appointed a new CEO, signaling potential strategic shifts within the company [11]. Market Performance - The report notes that the electronics sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Electronics Index declining by 0.62% compared to a 1.59% increase in the CSI 300 Index [21][23]. - As of March 14, 2025, various sub-sectors within the electronics industry showed mixed performance, with semiconductor stocks declining by 2.11% [21][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors: 1. AIOT, with specific companies like Lexin Technology and Hengxuan Technology [5][6]. 2. AI-driven innovations, particularly in computing chips and optical devices [5][6]. 3. Upstream supply chain replacements, emphasizing domestic alternatives in semiconductor equipment and materials [5][6]. 4. Consumer electronics, which are expected to rebound [5][6].