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全球牛市有望延续
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 23:56
2025.08.25 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 此次,一直和美国总统特朗普唱反调的鲍威尔也终于"松口"了,演讲之初就开宗明义——要降息了。 日前,某华尔街大行的中国首席经济学家在闭门会上提及,最近全球市场似乎无惧于经济数据、政策不 确定性的影响,俨然有一个流动性驱使的"水牛"征兆。 在美国,市场对人工智能(AI)主题疯狂扎堆炒作;在欧元区,欧洲央行的持续降息创造了低利率环 境,再通胀和国防支出加码的预期导致资金涌入国防和周期股。而中国在基本面企稳和政策预期下,低 利率驱动部分居民储蓄等资金流入股市,保险资金砸下近万亿增持股市。 8月22日,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示,"基准前景和风险平衡的变化可能需要 我们调整政策立场"。高盛认为,9月会议降息25个基点(BP)是大概率事件。当前,摩根大通、摩根 士丹利、高盛等投行普遍认为,降息将给亚洲市场注入动能,即使已经历大涨。 鲍威尔口风急转 杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会是每年常规的美联储会议之外最重要的政策会议,从2010年以来,多项重要的 政策转向都是通过这个场合对外官宣的。 如2010年和2012年时任美联储主席伯南克暗示的两轮量化宽松,2014年 ...
全球牛市有望延续
第一财经· 2025-08-24 23:53
2025.08. 25 本文字数:2790,阅读时长大约4.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 日前,某华尔街大行的中国首席经济学家在闭门会上提及,最近全球市场似乎无惧于经济数据、政策 不确定性的影响,俨然有一个流动性驱使的"水牛"征兆。 在美国,市场对人工智能(AI)主题疯狂扎堆炒作;在欧元区,欧洲央行的持续降息创造了低利率 环境,再通胀和国防支出加码的预期导致资金涌入国防和周期股。而中国在基本面企稳和政策预期 下,低利率驱动部分居民储蓄等资金流入股市,保险资金砸下近万亿增持股市。 此次,一直和美国总统特朗普唱反调的鲍威尔也终于"松口"了,演讲之初就开宗明义——要降息了。 鲍威尔表示,"基准前景与风险平衡的变化可能需要我们调整政策立场。在这一年中,在经济政策发 生深刻变革的背景下,美国经济表现出了韧性。就美联储的双重使命目标而言,就业市场仍接近最大 就业水平,通胀虽然依然偏高,但已从疫情后的高点大幅回落。与此同时,风险的平衡似乎正在发生 转变。" 过去一段时间,美国关键的经济数据显示出相互矛盾的信息。最新CPI尤其是服务通胀高于预期,但 非农爆冷显示出劳动力市场正在降温甚至出现疲弱迹象,这令美联储陷入遏制潜 ...
美联储转向、9月降息在即,全球牛市有望延续
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 12:28
中国股市仍存动能 日前,某华尔街大行的中国首席经济学家在闭门会上提及,最近全球市场似乎无惧于经济数据、政策不 确定性的影响,俨然有一个流动性驱使的"水牛"征兆。 在美国,市场对人工智能(AI)主题疯狂扎堆炒作;在欧元区,欧洲央行的持续降息创造了低利率环 境,再通胀和国防支出加码的预期导致资金涌入国防和周期股。而中国在基本面企稳和政策预期下,低 利率驱动部分居民储蓄等资金流入股市,保险资金砸下近万亿增持股市。 8月22日,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示,"基准前景和风险平衡的变化可能需要 我们调整政策立场"。高盛认为,9月会议降息25个基点(BP)是大概率事件。当前,摩根大通、摩根 士丹利、高盛等投行普遍认为,降息将给亚洲市场注入动能,即使已经历大涨。 鲍威尔口风急转 杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会是每年常规的美联储会议之外最重要的政策会议,从2010年以来,多项重要的 政策转向都是通过这个场合对外官宣的。 如2010年和2012年时任美联储主席伯南克暗示的两轮量化宽松,2014年时任欧洲央行行长德拉吉为量化 宽松政策做铺垫,2015年和2016年时任美联储主席耶伦提前释放加息信号,以及2020年鲍威尔 ...
液冷概念为何持续走强?3股已翻倍!液冷市场空间将超1500亿!多家A股公司有望受益!
私募排排网· 2025-08-17 00:00
Core Viewpoint - The liquid cooling concept has seen a significant surge, particularly driven by the upcoming mass production of NVIDIA's GB300 chip, which is expected to enhance the demand for liquid cooling solutions in AI computing power centers [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Projections - The liquid cooling market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could reach approximately $2.84 billion (over 200 billion RMB) in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.9% [7]. - By 2032, the liquid cooling market size is expected to increase to about $21.14 billion (over 1500 billion RMB), with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 33.2% from 2025 to 2032 [7]. - The penetration rate of liquid cooling in global data centers is anticipated to rise from 10% in 2024 to over 20% by 2025, driven by increasing computational power demands and energy efficiency goals [3]. Group 2: Technological Developments - NVIDIA's GB300 GPU has a thermal design power (TDP) of 140 kW, up from 120 kW in the previous generation, indicating a shift towards liquid cooling as traditional air cooling methods become inadequate [4]. - The liquid cooling technology is becoming the mainstream solution for chip and rack-level cooling due to its efficiency in managing the heat generated by high-performance computing [3][5]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - China's regulatory framework aims to reduce the Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) of new large-scale data centers to below 1.3 by 2025, with further reductions for national hub nodes to below 1.25 [4][5]. - The adoption of liquid cooling can significantly lower PUE, potentially achieving levels below 1.2, thus aligning with national energy efficiency targets [5]. Group 4: Industry Players and Stock Performance - Several A-share companies, including Chunzhong Technology, Siquan New Materials, and Dayuan Pump Industry, have seen their stock prices double in the past month due to their involvement in the liquid cooling sector [23]. - The company Yinvik, which has a comprehensive service capability in the liquid cooling industry and is closely tied to NVIDIA, has experienced a nearly 90% increase in stock price recently [23]. Group 5: Liquid Cooling Technology Components - The main components of liquid cooling systems include heat capture, heat exchange, and cooling sources, with cold plate liquid cooling currently holding an 80-90% market share due to its efficiency and effectiveness [9][15]. - The liquid cooling supply chain consists of upstream components, midstream servers and infrastructure, and downstream data centers, with significant growth expected in the upstream product market [17][20].
算力板块集体狂欢:英伟达松绑+AI炸场,寒武纪868元封神
Core Viewpoint - The computing power sector has experienced a significant surge, driven by factors such as relaxed sales policies from Nvidia, increased capital expenditures from North American cloud providers, and a growing demand for AI models, making it a prominent investment theme in the A-share market [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The computing power sector saw a notable rise on August 13, 2025, with key stocks like Cambricon, Industrial Fulian, and leading optical module companies reaching new highs [1]. - Cambricon's stock peaked at 868 CNY, closing at 860 CNY, with a market capitalization of 359.8 billion CNY [1]. - Industrial Fulian's stock hit a record high of 43.68 CNY, with a single-day trading volume exceeding 10 billion CNY, reflecting strong market interest in AI server leaders [1]. Group 2: Subsector Highlights - The optical module sector also performed well, with stocks like NewEase and Zhongji Xuchuang rising significantly, with NewEase increasing by 15.55% to 236.56 CNY and Zhongji Xuchuang by 11.66% to 252 CNY [2]. - The computing power leasing concept gained traction, with stocks like Hangang Co. hitting the daily limit and other related stocks also seeing substantial gains [2]. - Liquid cooling technology, essential for computing infrastructure, attracted significant investment, with multiple stocks rising over 12% [2]. Group 3: Driving Factors - Nvidia's potential easing of sales policies to China has provided a boost to the computing power sector [5]. - North American cloud providers have reported a substantial increase in capital expenditures, with a total of 159.38 billion USD expected in the first half of 2025, marking a 24.4% year-on-year increase [5]. - The release of major AI models, including OpenAI's GPT-5, has intensified the demand for computing power, prompting companies to secure resources to remain competitive [6]. - Domestic advancements in the computing power supply chain, such as Huawei's upcoming AISSD technology, have also contributed to the sector's growth [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the performance of leading companies in the sector, with significant profit growth expected for several firms, including Huafeng Technology with a projected net profit increase of 1479% [7].
四巨头“烧钱凶猛”,非美和二线云厂被低估,GB200良率提升!大摩对AI服务器非常乐观
华尔街见闻· 2025-08-06 13:06
Core Viewpoint - A global cloud infrastructure competition driven by AI is rapidly intensifying, with significant capital expenditure increases expected from major cloud service providers [1][2][7]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Projections - Morgan Stanley has significantly raised its capital expenditure forecasts for the four major U.S. cloud service providers—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—projecting a combined capital expenditure of $359 billion in 2025, a 57% year-over-year increase, and $454 billion in 2026, a 26% increase [1][2]. - The total capital expenditure for the top 11 global cloud service providers is expected to reach $445 billion in 2025, surpassing previous estimates of $400 billion [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue for these companies is projected to exceed 20% by 2026, marking a historical high, with 18% expected in 2025 [3]. - There is a growing demand from non-U.S. regions and Tier 2 cloud service providers, which may have even larger AI server reserves than leading players, indicating a significant market expansion [5]. Group 3: Supply Chain Improvements - Supply chain issues are easing, with improvements in the assembly yield of NVIDIA's next-generation GB200 chips, which is crucial for meeting the rising demand for AI servers [6]. - Major projects like "Stargate," a collaboration involving OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle, are moving from concept to execution, indicating a shift from order-based to project-based demand [6]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on the cloud semiconductor industry, citing strong global demand, underestimated growth areas, and improving supply chains as foundational elements for sustained industry growth in the coming years [7].
四巨头“烧钱凶猛”,非美和二线云厂被低估,GB200良率提升!大摩对AI服务器非常乐观
美股IPO· 2025-08-06 02:25
Core Viewpoint - The AI-driven global cloud infrastructure competition is accelerating, with significant capital expenditure increases expected from major cloud service providers, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the AI server market, particularly from non-U.S. regions and Tier 2 cloud providers [1][3][10]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Projections - Morgan Stanley has significantly raised its capital expenditure forecasts for the four major U.S. cloud service providers—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—projecting a combined capital expenditure of $359 billion in 2025, a 57% year-over-year increase, and $454 billion in 2026, a 26% increase [3][5]. - The capital expenditure for these four companies is expected to reach $100 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a 39% year-over-year increase [5]. - Expanding the view to the top 11 global cloud service providers, total capital expenditure is projected to reach $445 billion in 2025, significantly higher than the previous estimate of $400 billion [5]. Group 2: Emerging Demand from Non-U.S. and Tier 2 Providers - The report highlights that the market may be underestimating the demand for PCIe/HGX servers from non-U.S. countries, with strong recovery in demand for B200 servers and anticipated growth for B300 servers [8]. - Tier 2 cloud service providers are catching up, with their AI server reserves potentially surpassing those of leading cloud providers, and are expected to significantly increase capital expenditure in the second half of 2026 [8]. Group 3: Supply Chain Improvements - Supply chain issues are easing, with improvements in the assembly yield of NVIDIA's next-generation GB200 chips, which is crucial for meeting the rising demand for AI servers [9]. - The GB300 sample testing is set to begin in Q3, with no significant issues reported, indicating a positive outlook for supply chain capabilities [9]. - Large-scale projects like "Stargate," involving OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle, are moving beyond planning stages and are engaging with Asian supply chains for server cabinet procurement, indicating a shift from "order-based" to "project-based" demand [9]. Group 4: Overall Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on the cloud semiconductor industry, citing strong global demand, underappreciated growth areas, and improving supply chains as solid foundations for sustained industry growth in the coming years [10].
20cm速递|科创芯片ETF(589100)涨超1.1%,半导体测试设备国产化空间引关注
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-24 03:23
Group 1 - The electronic and semiconductor industry is showing multiple positive signals, driven by the iteration of GPU servers and the increased penetration of ASICs, leading to a rise in both volume and price of PCBs [1] - TSMC's Q2 net profit increased by 60.7% year-on-year, with AI chip foundry demand driving nearly 30% growth in annual sales [1] - The domestic model Kimi K2 has completed a cross-generation iteration with 1 trillion parameters, aligning with international leading models in programming, tool invocation, and mathematical reasoning [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (589100) tracks the Sci-Tech Chip Index (000685), which is composed of listed companies in the semiconductor materials, equipment, design, and manufacturing sectors from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies related to chips in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, focusing on enterprises with technological innovation capabilities and high growth potential [1]
"我已财务自由25年!"
国芯网· 2025-07-16 14:31
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significance of NVIDIA's recent developments, particularly the approval of the H20 chip export to China, which is crucial for both NVIDIA and Chinese AI companies [2][3]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Market Position - NVIDIA's founder, Jensen Huang, has achieved financial freedom since the company's IPO in 1999 and is now among the top ten richest individuals globally, with NVIDIA's market capitalization exceeding $4 trillion [2]. - The Chinese market accounts for 15% of NVIDIA's global revenue, making it a vital area for the company's growth and strategy [2]. Group 2: H20 Chip and Its Features - The H20 chip, while not NVIDIA's best product, is considered "very good" by Huang and is designed for various use cases, particularly suitable for models like DeepSeek, Qianwen, and Kimi [3]. - The H20 chip boasts excellent system memory bandwidth and efficiency, making it a strong contender for AI training and inference tasks [3]. Group 3: Additional Product Offerings - NVIDIA plans to sell the RTX Pro chip in China, which is based on the Blackwell architecture and features capabilities in computer graphics and ray tracing [3].
全球AI应用-海外篇
2025-07-15 01:58
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global AI application market, focusing on key players such as Cloud, OpenAI, Google, Grock, Apple, and Meta [2][12]. Company Performance and Strategies Cloud - Cloud's performance in the B-end market is strong, with annualized revenue expected to reach approximately $4 billion by June 2025, potentially increasing to $5 billion in July, and could rise to $7-8 billion with collaboration with Apple, nearing OpenAI's revenue [1][3]. - Cloud excels in programming, meeting the growing demand for automation and AI programming, with rapid growth in AR data [1][3]. OpenAI - OpenAI is the leading C-end application with approximately 370 million daily active users on its web and app platforms, and nearly 450 million when including pre-installed Apple device users [6]. - OpenAI's user growth drives demand for computing power from companies like Oracle and Cloud, which ultimately benefits NVIDIA for training models like GPT-5 [6][9]. - To attract more users, OpenAI needs to develop new features, increasing its reliance on high-performance computing resources, particularly NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300 chips [7][9]. Oracle - Oracle adopts a low-price strategy to capture market share in the cloud computing sector, purchasing NVIDIA GPU cards to provide services to OpenAI [8]. - The demand from OpenAI flows through Oracle and Cloud to NVIDIA, benefiting related domestic companies, such as PCB suppliers [8][9]. Amazon Cloud - Amazon Cloud's position in the industry is likened to early Microsoft Cloud, driving growth for optical module suppliers like New Yisheng and PCB suppliers like Shengyi Electronics [5]. Google - Google employs a pricing advantage strategy, mimicking OpenAI and Cloud by offering free or low-cost API services to attract customers [4][10]. - Despite not being a leader currently, Google shows strong potential for future growth in both C-end and B-end markets [11]. Apple and Meta - Apple is in a transformative phase, with potential breakthroughs if Siri acquires a company like Paipai Video and collaborates with Cloud [12]. - Meta is following OpenAI's path, investing heavily in training large models, which will significantly increase demand for NVIDIA's GPU200 and GPU300 series products in the future [12]. Market Dynamics - The major tech giants in the U.S. are rapidly developing their AI application sectors, with Cloud leading, followed by OpenAI and Google [13]. - Each major player is expected to continue driving growth in related downstream industries, indicating a competitive landscape where no company can be underestimated [13].