➢ 分类评价制度修订发布，叠加风险控制指标计算标准新规实施，有望推动行 业持续做优做强。2024 年 9 月证监会修订发布《证券公司风险控制指标计算标 准规定》，新规已于 2025 年 1 月 1 日实施。新规在计算各券商风险资本准备、 表内外资产总额等指标时，将根据上年证券公司分类评价结果调整系数，支持合 规稳健的优质证券公司提升资本使用效率。我们认为此前风险控制指标计算标准 新规和本次证券公司分类评价制度修订实施，均有助于健全证券公司服务实体经 济激励约束机制，持续推动行业回归本源、做优做强。在此过程中，业务规模大 且经营效率高的头部券商、部分业务条线具备特色的中小券商，以及在权益类自 营和资管业务等领域具备先发优势的证券公司有望受益。 非银行业周报 20250824 重视非银板块表现的可持续性 2025 年 08 月 24 日 ➢ 阳光保险发布中报，人身险负债端质效改善，NBV 高增驱动价值抬升。阳 光保险 1H25 实现总保费收入 808.1 亿元，同比+5.7%；归母净利润 33.9 亿元， 同比+7.8%；年化加权平均 ROE5.7%，同比+0.5pct；内含价值 1,284.9 亿元， 较上年末 ...

此外，我武生物、扬农化工等12只个股更是获得社保基金5年以上的持仓。从二季度末的持股情况来看，常熟银行、三一重工、华发股份等个股的 社保基金持股数量居前，分别达到2.78亿股、1.71亿股和9043.83万股。 【环球网财经综合报道】财报季来临，机构持股的布局逐渐清晰，其中社保基金的动向尤为引人注目。在已公布半年报的公司中，有89只个股被 社保基金连续持有4个季度以上，61只个股被社保基金持有超过8个季度。 从行业分布来看，社保基金连续重仓的61只个股主要集中在电子、基础化工、医药生物等行业，每个行业均有9只个股。具体来看，电子行业包括 鹏鼎控股、信维通信等；基础化工行业则有扬农化工、蓝晓科技等。分板块来看，主板个股有44只，创业板和科创板分别有12只和5只。 业绩方面，社保基金连续持有超2年的61只个股中，上半年净利润同比增长的有40只，其中圣农发展、继峰股份、皖维高新等个股的净利润增幅较 高。而净利润同比下降的有19只。从业绩可持续性来看，近3年上半年净利润均实现同比增长的个股有深圳机场、三一重工、思源电气等22只。从 调仓变动方面看，二季度末社保基金对61只连续重仓股中的17只进行了增持，其中海大集团、 ...

8月20日，上证指数续创近十年新高。连日来，A股波动走高，总市值首次突破百万亿元，A股三大股指也均创下近年新高。 有观点指出，本轮慢牛、长牛行情趋势确立。但目前也只有部分资金搭上了这轮行情的车，吃到了"肉"。其中，在年内监管明确鼓励中长期资金入市的背景 下，二季度末险资权益投资比例同比大幅提升。上半年，外资也扭转了过去两年净减持趋势，大举增持境内股票和基金。最新私募备案规模和存续规模较 2024年末也均有所增加…… 相较之下，当前仍有部分个人投资者对此轮行情持观望态度，北京商报记者从公募内部人士处了解到，最近市场热度的确明显升温，部分主动权益类基金遭 受一定的赎回，但也有被动指数产品规模和份额都出现了明显增长。另据业内人士分析，还有部分投资群体踏空本轮行情。 多方资金齐入市 近日来，A股大盘走强，不仅上证指数创近十年新高，深证成指、创业板指、北证50指数等多条宽基指数也均创近年新高，A股市值更首次突破百万亿元。 交易行情数据显示，8月20日，上证指数续创近十年新高，最高触及3767.43点。截至当日收盘，上证指数报收3766.21点，涨1.04%，深证成指、创业板指分 别报收11926.74点、2607.65 ...

Group 1 - Recent influx of funds into A-shares from various sources including public funds, private funds, insurance capital, and foreign investment, indicating a clear trend of "deposit migration" from bank savings to equity markets [1][2] - Public funds have seen a significant increase in allocation, with the balance of public fund investments in bank wealth management products reaching 1.38 trillion yuan, up 0.45 trillion yuan from the previous quarter [2] - Foreign investment in domestic stocks has turned positive, with a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in the first half of the year, reversing the trend of net reductions over the past two years [2][3] Group 2 - Policy measures aimed at promoting long-term capital inflow into the market have enhanced the stability of the capital market, with various initiatives encouraging institutional investments [3] - The economic outlook is improving, supported by stable growth policies, leading to upgrades in asset ratings by international investment banks [3][4] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July reached 1.9636 million, a year-on-year increase of over 70%, reflecting growing investor confidence [4] Group 3 - The potential for continued inflow of resident funds into the market remains significant, with expectations for sustained growth in public and private fund sizes [5] - The "wealth effect" from market gains is expected to drive further capital inflows, with major institutions projected to bring in 3 trillion yuan in incremental funds this year [5] - The trend of foreign capital increasing allocation to Chinese assets is anticipated to continue, driven by liquidity easing and the attractiveness of A-shares [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that insurance capital has increased its market entry pace in the second quarter, with total investment balance reaching 36.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.4% [1] - By the end of the second quarter, the combined investment in stocks by life insurance and property insurance companies exceeded 3 trillion yuan, marking an increase of nearly 1 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - Life insurance companies' stock investment balance reached 2.87 trillion yuan, with a net increase of over 200 billion yuan from the previous quarter and over 600 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, resulting in a stock investment ratio of 8.81% [1] Group 2 - The rise in the stock investment ratio of insurance capital is attributed to two main reasons: the low interest rate environment prompting insurance companies to invest in high-dividend stocks, and favorable policies from regulators encouraging long-term capital market entry [2] - Recent policy changes have included an increase in the equity asset ratio by 5% for certain solvency levels and a reduction of risk factors for stock investments by 10%, aimed at promoting greater market participation by insurance companies [3] - As of mid-year, the total approved amount for long-term investment pilot projects by insurance funds reached 222 billion yuan, with new private equity funds being established to facilitate these investments [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the enhancement of the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market as outlined in the Politburo meeting held on July 30 [1] - The meeting provides a clear roadmap for the reform and development of the capital market in the second half of the year, coinciding with the critical period for concluding the "14th Five-Year Plan" and planning for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The "1+N" policy system for the capital market is expected to continue improving, which includes further strengthening market stabilization mechanisms, guiding long-term capital into the market, and continuously enhancing the investor protection system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, outlining a clear roadmap for capital market reforms in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Market Stability - In July, the number of new A-share accounts reached 1.9636 million, a year-on-year increase of over 70% and a month-on-month increase of over 19%, indicating improved market attractiveness [1] - The implementation of policies aimed at guiding long-term funds into the market and enhancing investor protection is expected to continue, solidifying the foundation for market stability [1][2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen accelerated construction of long-term mechanisms and enhanced policy coordination, contributing to a stable market environment [1] Group 2: Inclusive Investment Ecosystem - As of August 8, 2023, the A-share market has seen the addition of 1,427 new listed companies since 2021, with a significant concentration in technology and healthcare sectors [2] - The capital market is expected to foster a more inclusive investment ecosystem, particularly supporting technological innovation and high-quality economic development [3] - Policies will focus on enhancing financing services for technology companies throughout their lifecycle, with an emphasis on differentiated listing standards and broadening financing channels [3][4] Group 3: Investor Protection - The "Big Investor Protection" system is being continuously improved, with a focus on expanding channels for investor rights protection and enhancing the market environment for investors [5] - Authorities will intensify efforts to combat market manipulation, insider trading, and other illegal activities, sending a strong signal of zero tolerance towards violations [5][6] - The use of big data and technology will be leveraged to identify and combat fraudulent activities in the market, ensuring a safer investment environment for participants [6]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货股指周报 关注关税是否如期延期 20250810 段福林 交易咨询号：Z0015600 从业资格号：F3048935 0769-22116880 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 回顾：上周大盘小幅低开一路上行，创今年以来新高。四大指数全线上涨，小盘股指表现较强。 风格指数方面，上周风格指数全线上涨，其中周期涨幅最大，近3.5%；其后依次是成长、金融、稳定和消费风格指 数。申万行业方面，上周绝多数行业上涨，其中军工、有色、机械设备和综合等板块涨幅居前，前三者涨幅都超5%； 仅医药生物、计算机、商业贸易、旅游板块小幅收跌。 经济：2025年7月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.4个百分点。非制造业PMI为50%，较上月回落0.1个百分点。 从分项来看，7月供需双双回落，生产回落0.6%，新订单回落0.8%，新出口订单回落0.6%；产成品库存回升一个月后再 次回落；价格方面出厂价格和主要原材料购进价格连续三个月下降后连续二个月回升。 此外，中长期信贷增长率由2022年8月低点震 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent recovery in equity market pricing is driven by multiple factors, including stable growth policies, lower deposit rates, and increased investment in non-US assets [1][2][3] - Since the implementation of stable growth policies on September 24, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index have increased by 32.2% and 44.6%, respectively, by August 8, 2025 [1] - The stable growth policies have improved the breadth of economic growth, contributing to increased stability in the stock market, as evidenced by the rising proportion of industries experiencing growth [1][2] - A reduction in deposit rates has led to increased liquidity in the residential sector, with the willingness to invest in stocks rising from 13.3% in Q3 2024 to 17.5% in Q1 2025 [2] - Policies promoting long-term capital inflows into the market have resulted in additional funding, with various financial institutions encouraged to adopt long-term assessments [2][3] - The rise in US credit risk premiums has increased the importance of non-US assets, as global investors seek to diversify their portfolios [3] Group 2 - Since August, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have become a key trading theme in developed markets, with the Nasdaq leading global performance [4][5] - The VIX index has decreased to around 15%, indicating reduced volatility expectations in the US stock market [5] - A-shares have shown a "thick width + reduced volume" market pattern, suggesting that while risk appetite remains high, there is a growing need for fundamental support [8][9] - The overall market breadth has improved, with 79% of stocks in the Wind All A Index surpassing their 240-day moving average [9] - The performance of various sectors has varied, with military, non-ferrous metals, and precious metals showing strong gains, while TMT and dividend sectors performed moderately [10] Group 3 - The US fiscal deficit has expanded significantly, with a reported increase of $109 billion year-on-year, although this figure is adjusted for timing discrepancies [11][12] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance has gained traction, with calls for rate cuts becoming more prominent among board members [14][15] - Recent policies aimed at supporting new industrialization and optimizing housing purchase policies in Beijing reflect a broader trend of government intervention to stimulate economic growth [31][32][33]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance since July, with expectations of a bull market, but concerns about high valuations and overly optimistic economic growth predictions persist [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The direction of the market ultimately depends on the capital flow; when net inflows exceed outflows, the market rises, and vice versa [3]. - The dominant capital influences market style, as seen in previous years where specific funds drove significant market movements [4][5]. Fund Flows and Market Performance - In 2017, northbound capital significantly contributed to the blue-chip rally, with net purchases nearing 200 billion yuan, surpassing the total of the previous three years [5]. - The public fund sector has expanded, with its share of A-share free float market value increasing from 6.8% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2021 [8]. - As of 2024, the banking sector has surged by 53%, driven by substantial inflows into ETFs and insurance funds, with the Shanghai Composite Index and other indices showing notable gains [9][10]. Institutional Investor Landscape - Retail investors hold the largest share of A-shares at 54%, but institutional investors, including public funds, insurance, and private equity, dominate market influence [11][14]. - The decline in public fund market share from 13.6% in 2021 to 10.3% in 2024 indicates a shift in market dynamics [15]. Future Capital Inflows - Future capital inflows are likely to come from ETFs and insurance funds, with the latter expected to play a significant role in the second half of 2024 and beyond [18][19]. - Policy changes aimed at increasing insurance capital investment in A-shares are anticipated to drive further market participation [20][21]. Sector Focus - The market may shift towards dividend-related sectors, particularly banks, utilities, and cyclical stocks, as insurance funds seek stable returns [24][25]. - The cyclical dividend sector is viewed as a better investment choice due to its potential for recovery and growth, despite some segments already showing high valuations [25].