2026开年A股市场表现强劲，成交额创历史新高。2026年年初至今（1月12日）上证指数累计上涨4.9%，自2025年年底以来17连阳，表现在全球 主要市场居前。整体风格偏向成长，创业板指/科创50年初以来累计涨5.8%/12.5%；传媒/国防军工/计算机/有色金属分别累计涨 21.9%/20.1%/16.4%/10.0%。值得关注的是1月12日，A股市场总成交额3.64万亿元，创历史新高。 智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，2026年年初至今（1月12日）上证指数累计上涨4.9%，自2025年年底以来17连阳，表现在全球主要市 场居前。多重利好促成A股开年强势表现，但短期市场上涨较快、成交放量，一定程度也需防范短期波动。 中期视角下，中金公司坚定看好A股市场延续上行趋势。一方面，近期地缘局势再度发生变化，美国政策不确定性提升的同时中国受影响较小； 去年十月底中美经贸磋商和中美领导人会谈后，中美经贸关系逐步步入新阶段，或进一步强化货币秩序重构。 另一方面，AI产业技术持续迭代、需求保持高增，自身高景气同时也带动较多相关行业的增长；叠加中国近年来在较多领域取得创新突破，共 同促进中国资产重估。中金公司认为 ...

分别看各大类行业的景气表现：1)能源及基础材料：需求预期转弱影响动力煤价格，地产链商品维持弱势，供需周期错配叠加货币宽松，贵金属、工业金 属、小金属价格普遍大幅上涨。12月我们观察的周期品价格表现存在差异，焦煤、焦炭、伦敦金、铜、铝、锌、碳酸锂、镨钕氧化物、钨、钴、螺纹钢、 化工指数、水泥指数分别环比上涨4%、8%、2%、12%、5%、2%、26%、7%、43%、21%、1%、2%、1%，而动力煤、原油、铁矿石、玻璃指数分别下 跌17%、2%、1%、7%，终端需求呈现分化，国内地产链商品价格延续弱势。12月美联储已经如期降息，美国劳动力市场及通胀数据走弱，市场对美联储 2026年降息次数的预期上升至2~3次，人工智能科技革命叠加能源革命，电力、高端制造等需求扩张，但商品属性使得相关有色金属品种供应阶段性紧 张，支撑有色金属价格走强。 智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研究报告称，A股春季行情有望延续。1月建议关注如下配置思路：1)伴随AI技术与应用扩散，关注光模块、云计算基础 设施，应用端关注机器人、消费电子、智能驾驶等。2)有色金属部分细分行业受益于全球货币秩序重构及供需不均。3)以地产链和泛消费为代表的顺周 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that market risk appetite improved in December, and the spring market is expected to continue [1] Group 2 - Investment suggestions for January include focusing on sectors benefiting from the spread of AI technology and applications, such as optical modules, cloud computing infrastructure, robotics, consumer electronics, and intelligent driving [1] - Certain sub-sectors of non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from the restructuring of global monetary order and supply-demand imbalances [1] - The cyclical market represented by real estate and general consumption remains tilted towards the left side, with attention on chemicals, power grid equipment, engineering machinery, white goods, and commercial vehicles [1] - Long-term capital inflow into the market is a prevailing trend, with a focus on high-dividend leading companies based on quality cash flow, volatility, and dividend certainty [1] - Improved risk appetite in the capital market is expected to boost the performance of the non-bank financial sector, with a focus on insurance and brokerage firms [1]

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 "回顾 2025":A 股关键变化暗示未来投资主线 20260102 手调研究 争 匆 争 匆 - · 全球货币秩序重构是牛市主因,美元和美债信任危机促使资金多元化配置, 中国股市受益,中美贸易谈判超预期及中国经济韧性亦构成支撑。 A 股市场基本面由新经济驱动,AI 和出海板块 2025年前三季度业绩增长 . 17%，占比达五成，旧经济占比下降，中国资产迎来重估。 科技板块估值先行是科技创新常见特征,A 股科技板块有产业基础,需求 ● 来自自主可控战略和产业升级,领军企业订单超百亿,需鉴别盈利能力。 2025 年 A 股呈现科技成长与高股息红利双主线格局,资产配置需攻守平 . 衡,高股息配置需求与中国经济周期和资产荒有关,新质生产力吸引资金。 2026 年消费板块或迎投资机会,经济工作会议强调扩大内需,消费品内 部结构发生变化,新兴品牌崛起,高分红特点吸引稳健投资者。 服数据加V： shuimu2026 ● 美国降息对 A 股资金面有判,人民币资产吸引力上升,但国际货币秩序重 构带来波动 şky数资公 市有助于改变 A 股市场格局，险资等长期资金在低点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the A-share market, indicating that the market has moved past its bottom phase and is expected to continue its upward trend into 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the A-share market is likely to experience a shift from valuation recovery to improved earnings expectations, with a projected overall profit growth of approximately 4.7% for 2026 [3][36]. - It highlights the importance of macroeconomic factors, including the restructuring of the global monetary order and the ongoing AI technology revolution, which are expected to support the performance of Chinese assets [2][12]. - The report suggests that the market may experience a balanced style shift, with a focus on sectors benefiting from high growth and innovation, as well as those poised for cyclical recovery [4][38]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic and Policy Environment - The report discusses the ongoing restructuring of international order and its impact on China's industrial innovation, suggesting that the safety of dollar assets is being questioned, which may benefit Chinese assets [12][16]. - It notes that while domestic demand still needs repair, external demand shows resilience, with exports expected to remain stable due to China's manufacturing advantages [13][14]. Earnings Outlook - The report forecasts a positive earnings growth trajectory for 2026, with non-financial corporate earnings expected to grow by around 8.2%, driven by policy implementation and improvements in supply-demand dynamics [36][37]. - It highlights that the banking sector may see stable earnings, while the brokerage and insurance sectors could benefit from an active capital market, although growth rates may moderate due to high base effects [37][39]. Structural Analysis - The report identifies key investment opportunities in high-growth sectors such as AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to contribute positively to overall market performance [38][39]. - It emphasizes the importance of the capacity cycle, noting that many industries are approaching improvement points after a period of capital expenditure reduction, which could lead to enhanced earnings elasticity [39][40]. - The report also points out that overseas expansion remains a significant growth opportunity for companies, with an increasing share of revenue coming from international markets [40].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend since "9.24", with increasing importance of fundamentals after a valuation correction, supported by the new phase of Sino-US relations, restructuring of the international monetary order, and the AI revolution entering a critical application period [2][5][10]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The new global order and domestic macroeconomic needs require proactive responses, with the Sino-US relationship entering a new stage, which will continue to promote global capital reallocation favoring Chinese assets [6][12]. - The A-share market is transitioning from valuation recovery to improved profit expectations, with an estimated overall profit growth of around 4.7% for 2026, driven by high-growth sectors and industries nearing performance improvement inflection points [6][30]. - The overall valuation of A-shares remains reasonable, with the current risk premium of the CSI 300 at 5.2%, indicating a favorable comparison to the bond market in the context of "asset scarcity" [6][30]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on three main lines: 1) Growth in high-prosperity sectors, particularly in AI and innovative industries; 2) Opportunities from external demand, especially in sectors like home appliances and engineering machinery; 3) Cyclical reversals in industries such as chemicals and renewable energy [7][28]. - The market style is expected to become more balanced, driven by the end of the capacity reduction cycle and policies promoting "anti-involution," leading to a closer supply-demand balance in many cyclical industries [7][28]. Group 3: Profit Growth and Structural Analysis - The profit growth for A-shares is projected to be around 4.7% in 2026, with non-financial companies expected to see an 8.2% increase in net profit, supported by policy implementation and the ongoing AI trend [29][30]. - High-growth innovative sectors are anticipated to support the index, with significant contributions expected from AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing [31][32]. - The capacity cycle is showing signs of improvement, with many industries experiencing a turning point after three years of capital expenditure reduction, leading to potential investment opportunities [32][33].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development in the capital market [1] - The new version of the basic medical insurance drug catalog and the first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog are expected to be released in December and implemented from January 1, 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - True Love Home announced a potential change in control, leading to a suspension of trading from November 5, with an expected duration of no more than 2 trading days [5] - Shida Group plans to acquire 95% of Fujian Shuchan Ming Shang Technology Co., Ltd. for 185 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its main business revenue and profit scale [5] - Fuyao Glass has completed the registration of a change in its legal representative, with no other changes to its business license [7] Group 3 - The implementation of artificial intelligence in healthcare is set to enhance the quality of health services, with a goal to establish high-quality data sets and intelligent applications by 2027 [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to improve the efficiency of overseas listing filings and expand the scope of stock trading through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market ended October with all three major indices declining, with the ChiNext Index falling over 2% [1] - The total market turnover for October exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points [5][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.85% in October, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 1.10% and 1.56%, respectively [5][6] Sector Performance - The coal, steel, and non-ferrous metal sectors led the market, with respective increases of 10.02%, 5.16%, and 5.00% [6] - The pharmaceutical, media, and retail sectors showed strong performance, with gains of 2.42%, 2.39%, and 2.08% [3] - Conversely, the communication, electronics, and non-ferrous metal sectors experienced declines of 4.07%, 3.06%, and 2.03% [3] Small and Micro-Cap Stocks - Small and micro-cap stocks performed well, with the CSI 1000 Index, CSI 2000 Index, and Wind Micro-Cap Index rising by 0.29%, 1.05%, and 1.69%, respectively [2] - In contrast, large-cap indices such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300 fell by 1.15% and 1.47% [2] Financing and Leverage - The A-share market showed optimistic sentiment regarding leveraged funds, with the financing balance increasing by over 1 billion yuan in October [5][6] - As of October 30, the financing balance reached 24,811.80 billion yuan, marking a historical high [6][7] Future Market Outlook - Analysts expect the A-share market to maintain a fluctuating upward trend in November, supported by policy drivers and improved external conditions [1][9] - The upcoming disclosure of important economic data in early November may provide clearer direction and expectations for the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of increased tariffs by the U.S. on Chinese goods has led to heightened volatility in the A-share market, but analysts believe this will not alter the long-term upward trend of the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction and Economic Resilience - Following the recent tariff announcements, the A-share market rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% to surpass 3900 points [1]. - Analysts assert that China's strong economic fundamentals and resilience can withstand the impact of U.S. tariffs, as evidenced by a significant year-on-year increase of 8.3% in China's total exports in September, despite a notable decline in exports to the U.S. [1][2]. - In the first three quarters, China's trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 17.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, indicating a growing diversification in trade relationships [1]. Group 2: Limited Impact of Tariffs - Analysts, including Yuan Fang from Guotou Securities, believe that the impact of the newly announced 100% tariffs will be limited, as the market has become desensitized to tariff shocks following previous trade tensions [2]. - Historical context shows that high tariffs have often been used as negotiation tactics by the Trump administration, suggesting that the likelihood of these tariffs being fully implemented is low [2]. - The upcoming holiday season in the U.S. poses a risk of supply shortages for certain goods if the tariffs are enforced, which could lead to further negotiations [2]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Opportunities - Analysts emphasize that the current external shocks should be viewed as disturbances rather than threats to the overall market trend, with a clear boundary on trade risks compared to previous situations [3]. - The ongoing transformation of the Chinese economy, along with a decline in risk-free returns and capital market reforms, creates a strong demand for quality assets, making current market dips potential buying opportunities [3]. - The restructuring of the global monetary order and the declining safety of U.S. dollar assets are expected to lead to a revaluation of RMB assets, supporting a stable upward trajectory for the A-share market [3].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the ChiNext Index dropping by 3% [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3846.25 points, down 1.30%, with a trading volume of 727.1 billion; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13013.34 points, down 2.56%, with a trading volume of 850.9 billion; and the ChiNext Index was at 3019.81 points, down 3.00%, with a trading volume of 391.8 billion [1] - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.58 trillion, a decrease of 65.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Galaxy Magnetic and China Ruilin hitting the daily limit [2] - The military industry sector was active, with Changcheng Military Industry achieving two consecutive limit-ups [2] - The semiconductor sector continued its strong performance, with stocks like New Lai Material and Kaimete Gas also achieving two consecutive limit-ups [2] - Conversely, the robotics sector weakened, with Daying Electronics hitting the daily limit down [2] Institutional Insights - CICC noted that recent global events have caused noticeable disturbances in major assets, but the impact on A-shares is expected to be less severe than in early April [3] - The firm emphasized that the revaluation of Chinese assets is ongoing, supported by favorable policies and a reasonable valuation range for A-shares [3] - CITIC Securities highlighted that recent market fluctuations are influenced by adjustments in financing policies for popular stocks, but the overall impact is expected to be limited [4] - Starstone Investment suggested that the market may see a recovery in trading sentiment as risk-averse funds return, especially with the upcoming 20th National Congress [4] Export Growth - The General Administration of Customs reported a 54.9% increase in the export of industrial robots in the first three quarters [5] - The export of wind power equipment also saw a growth of 23.9% [5] - Traditional handicrafts like dragon boats and wood carvings have gained popularity in international markets, reflecting a blend of traditional craftsmanship with contemporary elements [5] Company News - Vanke announced the resignation of Chairman Xin Jie, with Huang Liping elected as the new chairman [6]