点击小程序查看报告原文 上证指数突破近10年新高，如何看本轮牛市驱动力 ？2025年以来A股一改过去三年弱势，近期上证指数突破近10年新高，大部分宽基指数也已突破去年10 月8日高点。但与此同时，国内基本面预期并未显著改善，也缺乏超预期的增量刺激政策，"经济稳"与"市场热"似乎出现了一定的背离。市场共识是这是 一轮资金驱动的上涨，但问题在于市场表现与资金流动都是内生变量，既可以是资金流入推动市场大涨，也可以是市场大涨吸引资金流入。市场表现与资 金流动其实互为因果，资金流入未必是牛市的根本原因。事实上，低利率、资产荒与居民储蓄高增长并非当前新现象，而是过去2年都处于这种状态，但 牛市直到去年9月才启动，因此从时间维度看，资金流入也难以完全解释本轮牛市的底层驱动力。 本篇报告将基于对市场的复盘，围绕本轮牛市的几个成 因进行辨析，并找出牛市的根本驱动力，这对于未来判断行情的持续性，以及可能面临的风险，都有较为重要的意义。 一、年初以来的市场行情复盘：一波三折，全球股票牛市，中国表现偏强 年初以来的市场，美元出现罕见大跌，全球多数大类资产走强，新兴市场股市近5年首次跑赢发达市场，中国权益资产一改过去弱势，港股表现优异 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in margin trading balance in the A-share market, surpassing 20 trillion yuan for the first time since 2015, indicates a significant increase in market activity and investor engagement [2][4][9]. Group 1: Margin Trading Balance Trends - The margin trading balance reached 20,002.6 billion yuan on August 5, 2023, and increased to 20,131.3 billion yuan by August 7, 2023, with a financing balance of 19,989.2 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 142.1 billion yuan [2]. - Compared to 2015, the current margin trading balance represents a lower proportion of the A-share market's total market capitalization, which has grown significantly over the past decade [2][4]. - The current margin trading balance has increased more steadily, taking nearly a year to rise by 600 billion yuan, contrasting with the rapid increase seen from 2014 to 2015 [4][9]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Investors are diversifying their holdings, with a preference for emerging industries and growth-oriented sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, and high-end manufacturing, rather than concentrating on financial and real estate sectors as seen in 2015 [4][9]. - The recent increase in margin trading is supported by a series of stabilizing policies implemented since September 24, 2022, which have improved investor sentiment and reduced financing costs [9][10]. Group 3: Capital Market Conditions - The A-share market is experiencing a significant influx of retail investor capital, driven by a combination of increased savings and a lack of high-yield investment options, indicating a potential for further market growth [11][19]. - The dividend yield of the CSI 300 index stands at 2.8%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield, suggesting strong potential for returns in the A-share market [19][21]. - Institutional investors, including public funds, are currently holding a historically low position in A-shares, indicating room for increased investment in the future [25][27]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The overall profitability of the A-share market is expected to recover in 2025, ending a four-year decline, supported by macroeconomic policies and improvements in corporate profit margins [33]. - The current market structure resembles that of 2013, with expectations for better overall performance in 2025 due to favorable policies and liquidity conditions [34].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index leading the decline, closing at 3454.79 points for the Shanghai Composite Index, down 0.09%, with a trading volume of 543.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10412.63 points, down 0.61%, with a trading volume of 833.8 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext index closed at 2123.72 points, down 1.13%, with a trading volume of 393.8 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The steel, photovoltaic, coal, and marine economy sectors showed strong performance, while military, brain-computer interface, CPO, and semiconductor sectors faced declines [1][2] - Photovoltaic concept stocks rebounded collectively, with nearly 10 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Marine economy concept stocks surged against the trend, with over 10 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Steel and cyclical stocks were active, with companies like Liugang Co. hitting the daily limit [2] - Military stocks underwent adjustments, with Beifang Changlong dropping over 10% [2] Institutional Insights - According to Jufeng Investment Advisors, the market is experiencing fluctuations, with the steel sector performing well. The marine economy is emerging as a new thematic focus due to multiple catalysts [4] - Hengsheng Qianhai Fund noted that the market remains strong under the expectation of policy support for the economy, with a dual rotation between consumption and technology sectors [4] - The long-term outlook suggests that with decreasing tariff uncertainties and a restructuring of the global monetary order, the valuation of Chinese equity assets may improve [4] Innovation and Technology - CITIC Securities highlighted the issuance of measures by the National Medical Insurance Administration and the National Health Commission to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, indicating a favorable environment for the pharmaceutical sector [5] - The report suggests embracing innovation-driven strategies and internationalization as key directions for investment in the second half of the year [5] Industry Developments - The world's largest single-unit capacity impact turbine has been successfully developed, marking a significant breakthrough in China's high-head, large-capacity turbine technology [7] - The turbine, with a capacity of 500 megawatts, will be used in the Zhala Hydropower Station, a key project for China's "Tibetan electricity export" initiative [7] Market Trends - The global DRAM market is expected to reach a historical high, driven by a significant increase in prices, with the DRAM market composite price index rising by 47.7% since the beginning of 2025 [9] - The traditional DRAM products are projected to experience a shift from oversupply to undersupply, impacting both server and consumer terminal markets [9]