来自中银证券陕西分公司的投资顾问杨捍卫（执业证书编号：S1300620110013）公募基金模拟组合评 比中荣获7月月榜第五名，模拟组合月收益率达12.43%。 再谈到模拟组合交易策略时，杨捍卫表示模拟配置上主要采取的核心策略是趋势跟踪。再谈到当下股市 走势表现时，杨捍卫解析，对于当下股市自去年924以来，要分两个阶段来看：第一阶段流动性与情绪 推动，第二阶段基本面改善引领。回归市场本轮一揽子政策中最重要的一块拼图——增量财政政策已浮 出水面，财政、货币、资本市场、内需等政策的迅速出台体现了当下宏观政策的一致性和针对性，显著 降低了宏观层面不确定性。值得重点注意的是本轮政策由中央层面统一部署，系统性、前瞻性应对经济 结构转型的解决方案，底层逻辑重构将带来中长期权益市场的向上力量。 杨捍卫认为国庆节（2024年）前后由情绪与流动性推动的阶段性"疯牛"已经告一段落，未来较长时间将 进入区间震荡期，随着货币政策与财政政策共振势发力必带动国内宏观经济数据触底修复，基本面逻辑 将引领指数震荡走高，A股市场表现值得期待。而目前市场已经处于第二阶段，有望就此进入慢牛行 情。当下看指数是开启了新一轮分化，陷入一段时间的盘整蓄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Ping An Fund to suspend its APP operations by August 31, 2025, has sparked significant market attention, indicating a potential shift in the public fund distribution strategy within the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Several public fund companies, including Guoshou Anbao Fund and Morgan Stanley Fund, have also shut down their APPs this year, suggesting a broader trend in the industry [3][6]. - The closure of APPs by mid-sized public funds reflects the increasing operational and maintenance costs that are difficult to justify against low user engagement and financial returns [3][7]. - As of mid-2025, Ping An Fund's management scale reached 655.4 billion yuan, with a non-monetary scale of 251.7 billion yuan, ranking 24th in the industry [3][7]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - The annual cost of maintaining a fund APP is estimated to exceed 2 million yuan, which includes expenses for technical development and content operations, making it unsustainable for many mid-sized funds [7]. - The user engagement of fund APPs from leading companies is relatively low compared to third-party platforms like Tiantian Fund and Ant Wealth, leading to a significant disparity in active user numbers [3][7]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Despite some companies exiting the APP market, leading firms are investing in enhancing their APP services to improve user experience and engagement [3][8]. - Recent upgrades to APPs from major funds, such as Nanfang Fund and Yinhua Fund, have resulted in increased user activity, with some reporting a month-on-month growth in active users [8][9]. - The industry is gradually shifting towards a customer-centric approach, focusing on enhancing investor experience and reducing overall fees, which may lead to a restructuring of sales channels [9][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The development of direct sales APPs is seen as promising, provided that they focus on delivering investment research insights and comprehensive services to investors [4][10]. - Regulatory frameworks are being established to support the growth of fund advisory services, indicating a potential expansion of the direct sales model in the future [12].

Core Insights - The average commission rate for A-shares in Shanghai reached a new low of 0.201‰ in the first half of 2025, continuing a downward trend observed in recent years [1] - The commission rate decreased by 8.2% year-on-year compared to the same period in 2024, with a notable decline of 5.9% for the entire year of 2024 compared to 2023 [1] - Several brokerage firms have set the commission rate for new individual investor accounts as low as 0.01%, with some even waiving the minimum fee of 5 yuan [2][3] Commission Rate Trends - The average commission rate for local branches in Shanghai was 0.260% in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than the 0.181% for branches located outside Shanghai, indicating a 32.6% difference even after excluding high-frequency quantitative trading [5] - Monthly data from January 2024 to June 2025 shows a gradual decline in the average commission rate, with fluctuations but a clear overall downward trend [7] - The commission rates for 2025 have stabilized in a lower range, consistently below 0.221%, reflecting a more competitive market landscape [9] Market Dynamics - The relationship between market activity and commission rates is evident, as higher trading volumes tend to enhance brokers' bargaining power, leading to potential increases in commission rates during active market periods [8] - The commission rate decline exhibits a "stair-step" pattern rather than a straight line, indicating gradual adjustments in response to market conditions [9] Strategic Responses from Brokerages - Brokerages are enhancing their service offerings to counteract declining commission revenues, focusing on buyer advisory services and bundling additional services with commission rates [11] - Innovative strategies include linking commission rates to value-added services such as market insights and proprietary research reports, allowing firms to differentiate themselves in a competitive environment [11] - The introduction of smart algorithm tools, such as T0 trading algorithms, aims to meet diverse client needs while increasing trading frequency and, consequently, commission income for brokerages [12]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund sales institutions are undergoing a transformation due to the shrinking of trailing commissions and upcoming sales fee reforms, shifting from a "sell-side sales" model to a "buy-side service" model [1][2][5]. Group 1: Impact of Fee Reforms - The first impact on fund sales institutions is the reduction of trailing commissions, with management fees and custody fees decreasing since the initiation of the public fund fee reform in July 2023. The projected management fee income for 2024 is 124.73 billion yuan, an 8.1% decrease from 2023, with trailing commissions expected to be 35.48 billion yuan, down 8.7% [3]. - Many fund sales institutions, such as China Merchants Bank and Tiantian Fund, reported a significant decline in their distribution income, with reductions around 20% [4]. - The second impact is the anticipated reduction in sales fees, which is expected to be implemented by 2025, further constraining the revenue space for sales institutions [5]. Group 2: Transformation Strategies - Fund sales institutions are actively seeking transformation strategies in response to the dual pressures of commission shrinkage and upcoming sales fee reductions [6]. - Companies like Jiyu Fund are adjusting their product structures to focus more on multi-asset and equity products, enhancing their service offerings to meet diverse investor needs [7]. - Yingmi Fund is adopting a buy-side advisory model, aiming to align its interests with those of clients and reduce reliance on sales fees by developing a comprehensive advisory service system [8]. Group 3: Evaluation and Performance Metrics - The regulatory framework is shifting towards evaluating fund sales institutions based on investor returns, emphasizing the importance of maintaining investor profitability and long-term performance [9][10]. - Companies are adjusting their internal assessment mechanisms to focus more on the long-term stability and goal achievement of institutional clients, rather than just overall scale [11]. - The industry consensus is moving towards enhancing the investor experience through comprehensive advisory services, addressing the historical focus on initial sales rather than ongoing client engagement [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The mutual fund distribution industry is facing a critical transformation, emphasizing the need for enhanced professional services and increased information transparency to rebuild investor trust [1][2][12]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The star fund manager sales model has faced backlash as investors express dissatisfaction, leading to significant redemptions despite strong fund performance [1][3]. - Fund distribution institutions are criticized for promoting "hot" funds, contributing to investor losses and eroding trust [1][2]. - The upcoming 2025 reforms in the mutual fund industry present a pivotal moment for fund distribution institutions to balance profitability and responsibility [1][12]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary by E Fund Management, focusing on buy-side investment advisory services [3][12]. - The CSRC's recent action plan aims to establish a classification evaluation mechanism for fund sales institutions, incorporating investor profit and holding period into the assessment [11][12]. Group 3: Transformation Initiatives - Fund distribution giants like China Merchants Bank are reforming their sales models, introducing risk parity strategies and comprehensive asset allocation solutions [2][6]. - The "TREE Long-term Profit Plan" by China Merchants Bank aims to enhance investor experience through dedicated advisory services and diversified asset allocation [6][7]. - Ant Group has updated its fund entry rules and launched the "Index+" platform, reflecting a shift towards more structured fund offerings [8][9]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - Data from the China Universal Wealth Management platform indicates that accounts utilizing investment advisory services have outperformed traditional fund accounts by significant margins over various time frames [4]. - E Fund's investment advisory service has achieved a 70% profitability rate among clients since its launch, with an 85% growth rate projected for 2024 [4][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The mutual fund advisory pilot program is seen as a crucial exploration for the transformation of China's wealth management market [5][12]. - The industry is expected to shift from a sales-driven model to a focus on long-term investor profitability, necessitating a re-evaluation of performance metrics and service offerings [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The importance of providing correct asset allocation advice is emphasized over merely selecting good products, highlighting the evolving role of investment advisors in connecting capital markets with investors' wealth management needs [1][3]. Group 1: Development of Fund Advisory Services - The buy-side advisory model in China has made significant progress since the pilot program for public fund advisory services was launched over five years ago, with the number of participating institutions growing from 5 to 60 [4]. - As of the end of last year, the cumulative signed client assets for the fund advisory business at China Merchants Securities exceeded 30 billion yuan, and as of June 5, this figure approached 35 billion yuan [2]. - The fund advisory product system at China Merchants Securities covers various fund types, including money market, fixed income, equity, and global investments, offering dozens of combinations to meet diverse client needs [2]. Group 2: Focus on Pension Advisory Services - China Merchants Securities has launched a comprehensive pension advisory service, which includes designing public welfare fund advisory combinations, creating pension fund of funds (FOF) advisory combinations, and providing personalized pension advisory services [2]. - The company aims to support the development of the pension industry while allowing investors to participate in public welfare initiatives through its advisory services [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The transition of the fund advisory pilot program to a regular practice is anticipated to accelerate, driven by regulatory support from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [3][5]. - Industry experts believe that the establishment of user trust and awareness of advisory services remains a challenge, necessitating ongoing education and tailored solutions to meet investor needs [5]. - The shift towards regularization of fund advisory services is expected to bring profound impacts and new opportunities and challenges to the fund and wealth management industries [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1]. Core Insights - The public fund advisory pilot program is expected to be a significant exploration in the transformation of China's wealth management market, with 60 institutions already qualified for the pilot. The transition from a "sell-side advisory" model to a "buy-side advisory" model is anticipated to enhance client engagement and asset appreciation [2]. - China's wealth management market is in a rapid development phase, akin to the U.S. in the 1980s, with a notable shift in asset allocation from cash and deposits to financial assets. The proportion of cash and deposits is projected to decline from 53% in 2012 to 44% by 2024, while investments in capital market products are expected to rise [5][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Management: Client-Centric and Diverse Financial Services - Wealth management focuses on comprehensive financial planning centered around client needs, offering services such as cash management, debt management, risk management, insurance planning, investment portfolio management, retirement planning, and estate planning [11]. 2. Global Wealth Management Market: Origin in Europe, Development in the U.S., Future in Asia - Global resident wealth has grown from $117 trillion in 2000 to $454 trillion by the end of 2022, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6%. The U.S. wealth management market has matured over the past century, benefiting from a robust financial system and a client-centric approach [5][16]. 3. China's Wealth Management Market: Continuous Growth in Resident Wealth - China's personal investable assets reached ¥278 trillion by the end of 2022, with projections to grow to ¥327 trillion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 14% from 2018 to 2024. The high-net-worth population in China reached 3.16 million by the end of 2022, with an 18% CAGR from 2018 to 2022 [54][55]. 4. Competitive Landscape of China's Wealth Management - The wealth management sector in China is characterized by a diverse range of institutions, including banks, trusts, public and private funds, and internet wealth management platforms. The asset management scale of these institutions reached ¥155 trillion by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [5][54]. 5. Public Fund Advisory Pilot as a Key Transformation - The public fund advisory pilot program is a crucial step in the transformation of China's wealth management market, with the potential to shift the focus from sales-driven models to client-centric advisory services [2][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the summit is the emphasis on the high-quality development of the public fund industry in China, with a focus on investor-centric ecosystems and the integration of technology to enhance investor experience [1][2] - Morningstar's General Manager highlighted the rapid growth of index investing in China and the introduction of smart advisory tools to help investors avoid irrational decisions [1] - Experts at the summit agreed on the need for the public fund industry to shift from a "scale-oriented" approach to a "performance-oriented" one, emphasizing the importance of cost reduction and transparency to improve actual investor returns [1] Group 2 - The summit attracted over 1,000 participants from more than 200 institutions, indicating strong interest and support for the development of the investment advisory ecosystem [2] - Morningstar reiterated its strategic positioning to bridge domestic and international wealth management industries, aiming to create sustainable value for investors [2] - The theme of the summit, "Intelligence Gathering Globally, Witnessing the Future Together," reflects the goal of fostering consensus for high-quality industry development and injecting new momentum for future transformation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is undergoing significant transformation, with a focus on aligning the interests of sales institutions with investor profitability through a new classification evaluation mechanism for fund sales institutions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Classification Evaluation Mechanism - The newly introduced classification evaluation mechanism will incorporate various metrics, including investor profit and loss, holding period, and the scale of equity fund holdings [2][3]. - The mechanism aims to shift the assessment of sales institutions from a sales volume focus to an investor profitability focus, thereby enhancing the accountability of sales channels [1][2]. Group 2: Impact on Sales Institutions - The reform will prioritize institutions with better classification evaluation results in product access, license applications, and innovative business opportunities [3]. - Sales institutions are encouraged to improve their internal assessment and incentive mechanisms, emphasizing the importance of investor profit and loss [3][4]. Group 3: Fund Sales Fee Reform - The upcoming reform will include a reduction in fund sales fees, with expectations of a 50% decrease in sales service fees and a 30% reduction in trailing commissions, potentially leading to a total revenue decline of 39% for sales channels [4][5]. - The fund industry is projected to generate management fee income of 124.7 billion yuan in 2024, with sales service fees and trailing commissions contributing significantly to this figure [4]. Group 4: Shift to Buy-side Advisory Model - Sales institutions are advised to transition towards a buy-side advisory model, focusing on long-term investor relationships and asset appreciation rather than short-term sales [6]. - The demand for investment advisory services is expected to increase, necessitating a shift in sales strategies to accommodate investor needs [6]. Group 5: Growth of Equity Index Funds - The reform is anticipated to boost the scale and proportion of equity funds, particularly index funds, with securities firms expected to benefit from their existing advantages in this area [7][8]. - The market share of securities firms in equity index products is projected to reach 58% by the second half of 2024, highlighting their competitive position [7]. Group 6: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the growth potential for equity index funds, there are concerns about the ongoing trend of fee reductions, which may impact overall profitability [8]. - The industry is expected to see a rapid development of thematic and strategy-based index funds, driven by regulatory guidance and changing investor demands [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report "2025 Financial Products Annual Report: Ecological Leap" by Huabao Securities highlights significant changes in the asset management industry, emphasizing the growing gap between insurance, public funds, and other asset management businesses, as well as the shift towards a buyer-centric investment advisory model [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Structure and Trends - The asset management industry in China has seen a substantial shift, with insurance and public funds significantly outpacing other asset management sectors in terms of scale [5]. - The public fund sector surpassed bank wealth management products in 2023, with expectations to further widen the gap in 2024 due to accelerated indexation [5]. - The transition to net value-based operations has not only transformed bank wealth management products but has also reshaped the entire industry ecosystem [6]. Group 2: Drivers of Growth - The growth of insurance asset management is attributed to a steady increase in funding sources and long-term stability, driven by rising insurance awareness and wealth preservation needs [7]. - Public funds have experienced rapid growth due to policy support, increased demand for wealth management, and innovation within the sector [8]. - The shift towards index-based investment strategies has significantly contributed to the growth of both public funds and ETFs, with the latter experiencing explosive growth in 2024 [17]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The asset management industry is facing common challenges such as the need for differentiated strategic positioning, diversified strategies, and enhanced client service capabilities [9][10]. - The competition is increasingly focused on improving customer service capabilities and leveraging AI technologies to optimize investment decisions and operational efficiency [9][10]. - The industry is moving away from a product-centric operational model towards a more service-oriented approach, emphasizing the importance of understanding and meeting client needs [10][13]. Group 4: Talent and Technology - The rise of smart investment advisory tools is reshaping the talent structure within the asset management industry, reducing reliance on traditional human advisors while creating demand for new skills in financial technology and data analysis [14][15]. - The integration of advanced technologies like generative AI and big data is enhancing operational efficiency and enabling personalized wealth management services [14][15]. Group 5: Market Insights - In the bank wealth management market, the total scale reached 30 trillion yuan in 2024, driven by declining deposit rates [16]. - The public fund market is witnessing a significant increase in the issuance of fixed-income funds, which accounted for approximately 70% of new fund issuance in 2024 [17]. - The securities asset management sector is evolving, with a focus on enhancing research capabilities and diversifying product offerings, although the pace of public fund establishment has slowed [18].