据CME"美联储观察"：美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为5.9%，降息25个基点的概率为94.6%。美联储 12月维持利率不变概率为0.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为19.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 80.1%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 美联储会议纪要谨慎暗示今年将进一步降息 美联储官员对利率未来走向的分歧越来越大，但多数人认为，今年有必要进一步降息。周三公布的美联 储9月会议纪要显示，委员会正在努力应对相互矛盾的经济信号，并在顽固的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场 哪个是最紧迫的问题上难以达成共识。会议纪要显示，美联储官员一致认为，鉴于近期疲弱的就业数 据，有必要降息一次，但对于未来路径官员产生分歧。不过，会议纪要显示，"大多数人认为，在今年 剩余时间里进一步放松政策可能是合适的。"然而，一些政策制定者"指出，从若干指标来看，金融状况 表明货币政政策并非特别具有限制性 ...

每经AI快讯，周二（10月7日）纽约尾盘（周三北京时间04:59），离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报7.1459 元，较周一纽约尾盘跌18点，日内整体交投于7.1361-7.1489元区间。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

人民币兑换美元，你会觉得很神奇还是有点无感？今天聊聊这个事，你会发现身边的感受和数字背后的世界其实离你没那么远。人民币现在大概一块换 0.1405美元，这个数字看起来挺具体，但对普通人来说，感受更多来自生活中的应用。 出国旅游的时候，这个数字就很直观。去美国买东西，一双鞋标价50美元，用这个汇率算下来差不多350块人民币。这一算，就能心里有数：你在国内买一 双鞋可能只要300块，而出国买同样一双鞋，花的钱明显多。看到价格差异，有人会觉得国外东西贵，也有人会觉得换汇之后花得有点心疼。 网购也是一个典型场景。很多人喜欢在海外网站上淘东西，人民币换美元，顺便还能比较价格。遇到打折季，那种心里暗爽的感觉，可能比国内的促销还强 烈。你可能本来打算买一件衣服，结果汇率算下来，和国内差不多甚至便宜，购物欲望就蹭蹭上升。数字背后，不只是钱，还影响着人的消费决策。 投资方面，汇率同样能带来小心思。有人会存外币，有人会用美元账户买理财产品。人民币升值或者贬值都会影响最终收益。这个时候，你会发现汇率不只 是新闻里的一串数字，它直接牵扯到你手里的钱能买到什么，或者未来能换回多少。换句话说，了解汇率，其实就是了解自己手中财富的价值。 ...

每经AI快讯，周五（9月19日）纽约尾盘，离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报7.1194元，较周四纽约尾盘跌 100点。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The recent exchange rate of RMB to USD is approximately 1 RMB equals 0.1406 USD, reflecting the interconnectedness of global economic conditions and domestic economic performance [1] - The strength of the USD, as a global reserve currency, directly influences the RMB/USD exchange rate, with recent soft US economic data leading to a slight decline in the USD index while China's economy shows resilience [1][6] - Foreign investment flows significantly impact the RMB's value, with increased foreign investment in China putting upward pressure on the RMB, while capital outflows can lead to depreciation [1][4] Group 2 - Exchange rate fluctuations directly affect consumers, particularly those planning to travel abroad or engage in cross-border shopping, as a stronger RMB reduces costs for these activities [2][4] - Export-oriented companies are sensitive to RMB appreciation, which can reduce their revenue when converted back to RMB, while importers benefit from lower costs for raw materials [4][6] - Investors need to be aware of how exchange rate changes can affect returns on USD-denominated assets, with appreciation of the RMB potentially reducing the value of returns when converted back to RMB [4][6] Group 3 - Future trends of the RMB exchange rate depend on several factors, including domestic economic data, US economic conditions, and global risk factors such as geopolitical tensions [6][8] - Companies and long-term investors should consider diversifying their currency exposure to manage risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations [6][8] - Understanding the factors influencing the RMB/USD exchange rate can help consumers and investors make informed decisions regarding spending and investment strategies [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar is driven by expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant decline in the dollar index, which provides upward momentum for non-dollar currencies including the Renminbi [1][2][3] - The market is currently anticipating a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of further cuts later in the year, which has led to a strong performance of the Renminbi [2][3] - The Renminbi's exchange rate is expected to maintain a stable and strong trend, with potential testing of the 7.00 level against the US dollar if the Federal Reserve adopts a clear easing monetary policy [4][5] Group 2 - The recent inflow of foreign capital into the domestic stock market has increased demand for currency exchange, improving market sentiment and supporting the Renminbi's strength [1][5] - The expectation of a concentrated release of currency exchange funds by Q4 2025 is anticipated to further enhance the Renminbi's appreciation potential, given the structural weakness of the dollar index [5] - The management of the exchange rate will continue to follow a "bottom-line thinking" approach to prevent both consistent depreciation and appreciation expectations, ensuring a balanced currency market [4][5]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB against the US dollar broke the 7.10 mark for the first time since November last year on September 17 [1] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1163 against the US dollar on September 16, up 65 basis points from the previous trading day, marking the highest closing price since November 6 of last year [4] - Hong Kong is positioned as the largest offshore RMB business hub globally, with plans to enhance market liquidity and global reach through new funding arrangements [4] Group 2 - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, indicating stable inflation [4] - Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - Economists predict that the RMB will continue to appreciate against the US dollar due to several factors, including expectations of US rate cuts and ongoing support from China's exports [5][6] Group 3 - The RMB is expected to potentially break the 7 mark against the US dollar, influenced by changes in US Federal Reserve policies and cross-border capital flows [6] - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the approaching Fed rate cuts and increased foreign capital inflows into China's capital markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the USD, breaking the 7.10 mark for the first time since November last year, driven by expectations of US interest rate cuts and strong support from China's exports to various markets [2][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movement - On September 17, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate reached a high of 7.0995, while the onshore rate closed at 7.1163, marking a significant increase [2]. - The RMB has shown notable volatility, initially depreciating at the beginning of the year but appreciating significantly since April, nearing the critical "7" level [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to three main factors: short-term expectations of US interest rate cuts, medium-term support from exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and other emerging markets, and long-term economic stabilization policies in China [2]. - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the USD index, providing upward momentum for non-USD currencies, including the RMB [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as beneficial for domestic demand and investment, while it poses challenges for exporters who may need to establish technological barriers to reduce reliance on low prices [3]. - China's economic recovery and structural transformation are expected to support the RMB's strength, with policies aimed at boosting domestic demand further enhancing this trend [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with potential for additional cuts by the end of the year [4]. - Analysts predict that the RMB/USD exchange rate may continue to appreciate, with key indicators being the movements of US interest rates and cross-border capital flows [4].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the USD, breaking the 7.10 mark for the first time since November last year, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong support from China's exports to various markets [1][5][6]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - On September 17, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate reached a high of 7.0995, while the onshore rate closed at 7.1163, marking a significant increase of 65 points from the previous day [1]. - As of September 17, the offshore RMB was quoted at 7.1036 and the onshore at 7.1079 [1]. - The RMB has shown notable volatility, depreciating earlier in the year but appreciating significantly since April, nearing the critical "7" level [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to three main factors: short-term expectations of interest rate cuts in the US, medium-term support from exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and other emerging markets, and long-term economic stabilization policies in China [5]. - The key driver for the recent RMB appreciation is the market's anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which has led to a decline in the USD index and provided upward momentum for non-USD currencies, including the RMB [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - Analysts predict that the RMB will continue to appreciate against the USD in the short to medium term, with potential to break the "7" level [8]. - Key indicators for future RMB movements include changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rates and the flow of cross-border capital in China [8]. - Historical trends suggest that there is no definitive pattern for RMB exchange rate movements following Fed rate cuts, but the overall economic recovery in China and strong demand from emerging markets are expected to support the RMB [9].

Economic Activity - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of September 9, 2025, is 0.98, a decrease of 0.06 from September 2 [1][3] - Key industrial indicators such as the "coastal coal freight index" and "import dry bulk freight index" have declined, with the coastal coal freight index at 0.71, the lowest since June [1][3] Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [42] - Food prices saw a significant decline, with fresh vegetable and pork prices dropping by 15.2% and 16.1% year-on-year, respectively [42] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline in production material prices narrowing to 3.2% [42][2] Monetary Policy - As of September 9, 2025, the central bank net withdrew 948.8 billion yuan through open market operations, with a reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [5][6] Interest Rates - The overnight interbank rate rose by 12 basis points to 1.48%, while the seven-day repo rate increased by 3 basis points to 1.49% [9][10] - The yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds increased by 3.46, 1.35, and 4.74 basis points, respectively [14] Industrial Sector - As of September 9, 2025, steel billet prices increased by 1.69% week-on-week, while cement prices decreased by 1.01% [23][24] - The operating rate of short-process steel mills remained stable at 69.79%, while long-process steel mills saw a decline to 50.00% [23] Shipping Sector - The China Coastal Bulk Freight Index fell by 59.07 points to 994.29 points, while the Baltic Dry Index rose by 93 points to 2079 points [31] Real Estate Market - In the week ending September 9, 2025, new and second-hand home transaction areas in first-tier cities decreased by 24.64% and 4.17%, respectively [35][36] Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index decreased by 0.54 points to 97.77, while the RMB appreciated by 228 basis points to 7.1248 against the dollar [44][45]