北京时间7月12日03:00，在岸人民币兑美元（CNY）收报7.1702，成交量396.06亿美元。 ...

人民币兑美元中间价报7.1475，上调35点；上一交易日中间价7.1510，上一交易日官方收盘价7.1776， 上日夜盘报收7.1780。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1780 against the US dollar, appreciating by 35 points compared to the previous trading day's night session [1] Group 1 - The onshore yuan's exchange rate indicates a strengthening trend against the US dollar [1]

7月10日，在岸人民币兑美元16:30收盘报7.1776，较上一交易日上涨48个基点。 ...

在岸人民币兑美元7月10日16:30收盘报7.1776，较上一交易日上涨48点。 ...

Core Insights - The RMB to USD exchange rate remained stable on July 7, 2025, with onshore RMB (CNY) opening at 7.1641 and closing at 7.1692, while offshore RMB (CNH) opened at 7.1621 and closed at 7.1676, indicating a relatively calm market environment [3][4][6] Exchange Rate Data Analysis - On July 7, the onshore RMB reached a high of 7.1709 and a low of 7.1641, with a closing value of 7.1692, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1676, maintaining a narrow spread of 10 basis points [3][4] - The actual exchange rate for consumers is expected to be around 7.17, factoring in bank fees [3] Factors Behind Exchange Rate Stability - Market confidence in the RMB remains stable, leading to minimal expected fluctuations [6][9] - The People's Bank of China effectively balanced liquidity and interest rates, preventing significant exchange rate volatility [6][11] - Recent improvements in export data have contributed to a more balanced foreign exchange supply and demand [4] Future Exchange Rate Predictions - The RMB to USD exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15 to 7.20, with low likelihood of significant appreciation or depreciation in the short term [9][10] - Domestic economic stability and steady export growth support this outlook [9] - The nearing end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle reduces pressure on the USD [10] Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations - For individuals repaying USD loans, the current exchange rate of 7.17 compared to 7.20 can save approximately 30 RMB monthly, totaling 360 RMB annually [7] - Investments in USD-denominated assets, such as US stock funds, are directly influenced by exchange rate movements [7] - Export-oriented businesses benefit from the current exchange rate range, allowing for better currency conversion and reduced financial pressure [7] Strategies for Managing Exchange Rate Volatility - Individuals should adopt a stable approach to currency exchange for travel or study, rather than attempting to time the market [12] - Export companies are advised to implement flexible, phased currency conversion strategies to mitigate short-term risks [12] - Investors in USD assets should continuously monitor Federal Reserve policies and domestic interest rates to optimize their asset allocation between RMB and USD [13]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar closed at 7.1818, reflecting a decline of 23 points from the previous trading day, with trading fluctuating between 7.1695 and 7.1854 during the day [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Currency Performance - The offshore yuan (CNH) closed at 7.1818 against the US dollar [1] - The currency experienced a drop of 23 points compared to the previous New York closing [1] - The daily trading range was between 7.1695 and 7.1854 [1]

在岸人民币兑美元（CNY）北京时间03:00收报7.1780元，较周一夜盘收盘跌30点。成交量334.09亿美元。 ...

如果未来几年美元指数整体处于波动下行的态势，那么人民币兑美元汇率走势可能处于稳中有升之势。这一情景有利于中国的跨境资本流动与人民币国际 化，也有利于增强中国货币政策独立性 文｜张明 1971年至今，美元指数大致走出了三个先下降、后上升的长周期（图1）。 数据来源：CEIC 2022年9月底至2025年6月底，美元指数已经由114.1下降至96.9，降幅为15.1%。考虑到上一轮美联储加息周期已经结束，且美联储从2024年9月起已经步 入降息周期，笔者认为，我们基本上可以确定，从2022年9月底起至今，美元指数大概率已经步入新的一轮长周期，且美元指数的下行期可能持续较长时 间，后续跌幅也会相当显著。 三个美元指数长周期分析 回顾1971年至今的三个完整的美元指数长周期，我们可以得到以下初步结论： 第一个周期的下降期为1971年初至1978年10月底，美元指数由120.5下降至82.1，降幅为31.9%；上升期为1978年10月底至1985年2月底，美元指数由82.1上 升至164.7，升幅为100.6%。第二个周期的下降期为1985年2月底至1992年9月初，美元指数由164.7下降至78.3，降幅为52.5% ...

在岸人民币兑美元（CNY）北京时间03:00收报7.1750元，较上周五夜盘收盘跌97点。成交量346.17亿美元。 ...