一般来说，八次会议中的四次堪称"重量级"，也就是每年3月、6月、9月、12月召开的这四次。因为这 几次会议会公布经济预测摘要(SEP)，包含著名的"点阵图"。虽是小小一图，却浓缩了委员们对未来利 率路径的判断，被市场视作政策走向的风向标。 除去这四次分量较重会议，其他四次会议虽不发布点阵图，但也会有利率决定与联储主席新闻发布会。 如果经济形势突变，这些会议同样可能成为转折点。 此外，如有特殊情况，譬如危机或突发事件时，FOMC还会召开临时会议，这种临时会议的关注度甚至 超过例会。譬如2008年金融危机、2020年疫情期间，都曾出现过"紧急降息"的非常规举措。同时，如果 会议刚好发生在美联储换主席、换理事，或者总统对联储独立性施压的时点，那会议也会被额外放大。 会议内容:从数据到措辞，环环相扣 一次完整的FOMC会议大致分为几步。 当地时间9月16日，美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在首都华盛顿召开货币政策会议，该会 议常常被形容为"华尔街的心跳"，因为其不仅决定美元利率高低，也牵动全球资本流向、各国央行政 策，乃至普通家庭的房贷和就业。正因为FOMC决定牵一发而动全身，本次会议的敏感性更显突出。 ...

Group 1: Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, international gold prices fluctuated at high levels, briefly surpassing $2300 per ounce, marking a new peak. The second half of 2025 presents mixed market sentiments regarding gold's trajectory, influenced by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and rising attractiveness of risk assets due to improved economic soft landing expectations [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy indicates that declining interest rates will support gold prices. As inflation cools and core CPI drops to around 3.1%, the Fed has signaled a potential interest rate cut cycle starting in 2025 [2][4] - A 25 basis point rate cut has already occurred, bringing the rate to 4.75%, with another cut anticipated within the year [3] Group 3: Geopolitical and Financial Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, along with emerging market debt risks, contribute to persistent risk aversion among investors. This environment enhances gold's appeal as a traditional hedge against risk [5][6] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks have shown strong demand for gold, with net purchases reaching 336 tons in the first half of 2025, a 14% year-on-year increase. Major buyers include China, India, and Russia, driven by diversification of foreign reserves and inflation hedging [8] Group 5: Supply Constraints - Despite high gold prices encouraging some mine restarts, global gold supply is projected to grow only modestly, with an estimated production of 3600 tons in 2025, reflecting a mere 1.3% increase year-on-year. Supply constraints are influenced by environmental regulations, rising costs, and aging mines [8]

Core Viewpoint - The future trend of the US dollar index is likely to be a downward fluctuation, which may lead to a stable or rising trend in the RMB to USD exchange rate, benefiting China's cross-border capital flow and the internationalization of the RMB [2][11]. Group 1: Historical Analysis of the US Dollar Index - Since 1971, the US dollar index has experienced three long cycles of decline followed by rise, with significant percentage changes in each cycle [2][5]. - The first cycle saw a decline from 120.5 to 82.1 (31.9% drop) and a rise to 164.7 (100.6% increase) [2]. - The second cycle had a decline from 164.7 to 78.3 (52.5% drop) and a rise to 120.9 (54.4% increase) [2]. - The third cycle experienced a decline from 120.9 to 71.3 (41.0% drop) and a rise to 114.1 (60.0% increase) [2]. Group 2: Current Dollar Index Trends - From September 2022 to June 2025, the dollar index is projected to decline from 114.1 to 96.9, a decrease of 15.1% [4]. - The end of the previous Federal Reserve interest rate hike cycle and the beginning of a rate cut cycle in September 2024 suggest a new long-term downward trend for the dollar index [4]. Group 3: Characteristics of Dollar Index Cycles - The highest and lowest points of the dollar index in the three cycles show a gradual downward trend, indicating a weakening of the US economic advantage relative to other developed countries [5]. - The duration of the cycles has been increasing, with the downward phases lasting around 7-8 years and the upward phases extending significantly [5]. - The relationship between the dollar index and interest rates has changed, with recent trends showing a lower correlation between the two [6]. Group 4: Future Predictions for the Dollar Index - The dollar index is expected to continue a downward trend for an extended period, potentially lasting another 6-7 years [10]. - The lowest point of the current downward cycle may fall below the previous cycle's low of 71.3, but it is unlikely to drop below 80 due to issues in other developed economies [10]. - The correlation between the dollar index and US interest rates may remain low, impacting the RMB to USD exchange rate positively [11].

Group 1 - The U.S. is facing significant debt pressure, and the trade war with China has escalated unexpectedly for Trump [2][4] - Trump has been vocal in his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, demanding interest rate cuts to support the economy, but Powell has maintained the Fed's independence [6][8] - High interest rates are causing distress in the U.S. manufacturing sector, with average loan rates exceeding 6%, impacting companies like Tesla and Walmart [10][12] Group 2 - Trump's trade policies aim to reduce trade deficits and revive U.S. manufacturing, but high loan rates hinder companies from relocating to the U.S. [12][14] - A significant amount of U.S. debt, totaling $6.5 trillion, is maturing soon, leading to concerns about the government's ability to meet these obligations [14] - China has refused to negotiate with the U.S. in response to Trump's tariffs, contrasting with previous negotiations during his first term [16][18] Group 3 - Trump has attempted to signal goodwill towards China by suggesting potential tariff reductions, despite no communication from China [20][22] - The situation in Taiwan is being leveraged by Trump, as he may be influencing Taiwan's leadership to adopt a more conciliatory stance towards China [27][28] - The dynamics between the U.S. and Taiwan are shifting, with calls for peace contrasting with previous aggressive rhetoric [25][30]