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11月3日【港股Podcast】恆指、小米集團、中海油、蔚來、快手、港交所
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-04 19:51
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,158 points, near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 26,163 points, indicating a potential for slight upward movement if trading volume increases [1][2] - Investors are divided, with bullish investors targeting levels between 26,300 and 26,500, while bearish investors see strong resistance at 26,200, predicting a potential drop of 300 points [1][2] - Current resistance is estimated at around 26,600 points, with a possibility of reaching 26,679 points if the index breaks through this level [2] Group 2 - Xiaomi's stock price rose slightly to 44.72 HKD, with a first resistance level at 48.1 HKD, and a potential upward movement towards 53.8 HKD if this level is breached [9][10] - Technical signals for Xiaomi show 11 buy signals and 6 sell signals, indicating a slightly positive short-term outlook [9][10] - The support level for Xiaomi is around 42.6 HKD, and if it falls below this, it could drop to 40 HKD [9][10] Group 3 - CNOOC's stock price closed at 20.46 HKD, close to the upper Bollinger Band, with a support level at 19.7 HKD [14] - If CNOOC's stock price drops below 19.7 HKD, it may further decline to 19.2 HKD [14] Group 4 - NIO's stock price increased to 56.9 HKD, with a resistance level at 59.9 HKD, and a potential rise to 63.2 HKD if this level is surpassed [18] - Investors are advised to choose options with a strike price about 10% out of the money and longer expiration dates for better safety [18] Group 5 - Kuaishou's stock price closed at 73.45 HKD, with a resistance level at 78.2 HKD, and a potential rise to 85.7 HKD if this level is broken [25][26] - Technical signals indicate 10 buy signals and 5 sell signals, suggesting a slightly positive short-term outlook [25][26] Group 6 - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) closed at 428.8 HKD, with a resistance level at 439 HKD, and a potential rise to 449 HKD if this level is breached [32] - Technical signals show 9 buy signals and 5 sell signals, indicating a slight preference for buying [32]
10月27日【港股Podcast】恆指、美團、百度集團、藥明康德、阿里、瑞聲科技
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-27 13:11
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is currently experiencing mixed investor sentiment, with some expecting it to challenge 26,800 points while others predict a drop to 26,100 points [1][2] - The resistance level for the HSI is estimated at around 26,900 points, while the support level is approximately 25,800 points [2] - Technical signals indicate a predominance of "strong sell" signals, with 12 sell signals and only 2 buy signals [3][6] Group 2 - Meituan's stock price has surpassed 100 HKD, closing at 102 HKD, and is currently above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [10] - The technical signals for Meituan lean towards "sell," with 9 sell signals and 3 buy signals, suggesting a bearish outlook [10] - The resistance level for Meituan is around 106 HKD, with a potential next target of 110 HKD if it breaks through [10] Group 3 - Baidu's stock price closed at 125 HKD, close to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, with a resistance level at approximately 132.5 HKD [16] - The technical signals for Baidu are also predominantly "sell," with 8 sell signals and 5 buy signals [20] - Investors are advised to consider the exercise price of options carefully, with recommendations to choose options closer to the current stock price for better alignment with market movements [17] Group 4 - WuXi AppTec's stock has shown strong performance, breaking through the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, with a resistance level at around 123.6 HKD [23] - The stock's trading volume has increased significantly compared to the past 10 trading days, indicating positive market sentiment [23] Group 5 - Alibaba's stock closed at 173.6 HKD, with a resistance level at 180.6 HKD and a potential next target of 189.7 HKD [30] - The technical signals for Alibaba are predominantly "sell," with 9 sell signals and 3 buy signals, indicating a cautious outlook [30] - The support level for Alibaba is around 164.4 HKD, with a potential drop to 157.5 HKD if it breaks below this level [30] Group 6 - AAC Technologies' stock closed at 40.88 HKD, above the 40 HKD mark, but still below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [36] - The technical signals for AAC Technologies are slightly more favorable, with a majority of buy signals [36] - Investors are advised to consider waiting for lower entry points, with a support level at approximately 38.8 HKD [36]
10月24日【港股Podcast】恆指、贛鋒鋰業、華虹半導體、中芯國際、小米集團、中國移動
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-25 19:56
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is currently showing mixed signals, with some investors optimistic about breaking through resistance levels at 26,700 points, while others anticipate a drop to around 25,500 points [1][2] - Technical analysis indicates a predominance of sell signals, with 9 sell signals compared to 4 buy signals, suggesting a higher probability of adjustment in the near term [1][2] - The calculated resistance level is approximately 26,700 points, and if this level is breached, the index could potentially rise to around 27,400 points [2] Group 2 - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) has seen a slight recovery, with a current price of approximately 46.76 HKD, but technical signals remain bearish with 10 sell signals and only 2 buy signals [8] - The resistance level for Ganfeng Lithium is estimated at 51.3 HKD, and a breakthrough could lead to further gains up to 53.1 HKD [8] Group 3 - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) is experiencing positive market sentiment, with expectations for the stock to rise to 99-100 HKD, supported by a closing price of 82.4 HKD [14] - The resistance level for Hua Hong is identified at 90.1 HKD, and a breakthrough could lead to further increases [14] Group 4 - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) has shown a recovery with a closing price of 80 HKD, but technical signals indicate a bearish trend with 9 sell signals and 4 buy signals [19] - The resistance level is around 86 HKD, and if breached, it may lead to adjustments [20] Group 5 - Xiaomi Group (01810) has seen a significant decline from nearly 60 HKD to a current price of 45.7 HKD, with a short-term support level at 44.5 HKD [26] - If the stock falls below 44.5 HKD, it may drop further to around 40 HKD, which would breach the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands [26] Group 6 - China Mobile (00941) has shown some recovery, currently priced at 85.4 HKD, but the trading volume remains weak [32] - The support level is approximately 82.4 HKD, and if this level is broken, the stock could decline to 79.1 HKD [32]
10月17日【港股Podcast】恆指、美團、寧德時代、中移動、中海油、匯豐
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-20 11:01
Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at approximately 25,247 points on October 17, indicating a significant decline, having breached key technical levels such as the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands [1][2] - The market sentiment is affected by this drop, with many investors feeling psychological pressure due to the volatility [2] Technical Analysis - Currently, there are 8 buy signals and 7 sell signals for the HSI, suggesting a slight bias towards buying in the short term [3][7] - The immediate support level for the HSI is around 24,800 points; if this level is breached, the next support is approximately 23,700 points [4][5] - Investors are advised to select products with recovery prices further from the support level to mitigate risks associated with sudden market declines [5] Individual Stock Analysis Meituan (03690) - Meituan's stock price has also been declining, closing at 94.5 HKD, having breached the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands [9] - The first support level is around 91.1 HKD; if this is broken, the next support is at approximately 85.8 HKD [9][10] - Technical signals for Meituan show 9 buy signals and 4 sell signals, indicating a slight preference for buying [12] Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (03750) - The stock closed at 521.5 HKD, down from a high of 614 HKD, with a neutral technical signal showing 5 buy and 5 sell signals [14][15] - The support level is around 477 HKD, which is close to the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands [15] China Mobile (00941) - China Mobile's stock closed at 85.3 HKD, maintaining a neutral technical signal with potential resistance at 88.5 HKD [17][18] - If the stock price continues to rise, it could reach 91.8 HKD if it breaks the resistance level [17] China National Petroleum Corporation (00857) - The stock closed at 7.32 HKD, with a bearish technical signal showing 8 sell signals and 5 buy signals [23][24] - The first resistance level is at 7.5 HKD, and if this is surpassed, it could rise to 7.7 HKD [23] HSBC Holdings (00005) - HSBC's stock closed at 100.9 HKD, just above the support level of 96.7 HKD [29][30] - The technical signals show 8 buy signals and 7 sell signals, indicating a slight preference for buying [32]
保力加通道頂部遇阻!騰訊665元成多空分水嶺
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-30 19:47
Core Viewpoint - Tencent's stock price is currently facing resistance at 665 HKD, with technical signals indicating a "sell" recommendation, while the support level is at 638 HKD [1][2]. Technical Analysis - Key support levels for Tencent are at 638 HKD and 617 HKD, while initial resistance is at 678 HKD, with a potential challenge at 692 HKD if the initial resistance is broken [2]. - The stock price is above the 10-day moving average (647 HKD) and significantly higher than the 30-day and 60-day moving averages, indicating a favorable short to medium-term trend [2]. - The RSI indicator is at 67, suggesting the stock may be in a strong zone but not yet overbought [2]. - Various oscillators show mixed signals, with the Williams indicator indicating overbought conditions but neutral, while the stochastic oscillator gives a buy signal, and MACD maintains a buy signal [2]. Leverage Products Performance - On September 25, market data showed significant performance in leveraged products, with HSBC call warrants (18949) rising by 13% and UBS bull certificates (56416) increasing by 29% over two days [4]. - Another UBS bull certificate (56153) saw a substantial rise of 34% in the same period, indicating that leveraged products can provide returns significantly higher than the underlying stock during volatility [4]. Investment Options - For investors optimistic about Tencent's short-term breakout, options include slightly out-of-the-money call warrants with lower implied volatility, such as the Guotai Junan call warrant (19049) offering approximately 10.2x leverage [7]. - UBS call warrant (18902) also presents a favorable option with 9.1x leverage and relatively low implied volatility [7]. - For bearish investors, there are put warrants available, such as the Bank of China put warrant (20518) and UBS put warrant (15152), both offering around 8x leverage with favorable pricing [7]. Bull and Bear Certificates - Investors expecting Tencent to consolidate within the 635-700 HKD range may consider related products, such as UBS bull certificate (63073) or HSBC bull certificate (61968), with redemption prices at 635 HKD and 636 HKD, respectively, offering approximately 18x leverage [9]. - For those with a bearish outlook, UBS bear certificate (66241) and JPMorgan bear certificate (66094) are available, both with redemption prices set at 700 HKD [9].
9月5日【港股Podcast】恆指、華虹、美團、比亞迪、神華、舜宇
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-05 20:08
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - Investors remain optimistic about the Hang Seng Index, expecting it to challenge 26,000 next week, with a buyback price of 24,800 for bull certificates [1] - Short-term technical signals indicate a "sell" recommendation, with bearish signals prevailing; support at 25,000 and resistance at 25,700 and 26,100 [1] - Cautious investors are advised to choose products with a buyback price below the second support level of 24,733 [1] Group 2: Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) - The stock price closed at 47.58, with investors holding call options with an exercise price of 48; short-term signals indicate a "buy" [7] - Resistance levels are identified at 52.8 and 56.6, with a recommendation to consider options with an exercise price of 50, which is slightly out of the money [7] Group 3: Meituan-W (03690.HK) - The stock price has been trading between 98 and 104 for two weeks, with a closing price of 103; the recommendation is a "buy" [9] - Resistance levels are at 118.9 and 119.1; caution is advised for investors holding options with an exercise price of 158, as it is significantly out of the money [9] Group 4: BYD Company (01211.HK) - The stock is viewed as a strong buy, with potential for a rebound; support levels are at 102.3 and 95.9 [14] - Investors are considering bullish certificates with a target of 100 [14] Group 5: China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) - The stock has closed above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, but the overall signal is a "sell" [18] - Support levels are at 35.2 and 34.5, which investors should consider [18] Group 6: Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) - The stock is below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands; the recommendation is a "buy" [24] - Resistance levels are at 83.4 and 87.6, with short-term support at 75.9 and 71.2 [24]
8月25日【港股Podcast】恆指、阿里、百度、京東、洛陽鉬業、紫金
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-25 11:22
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has shown a significant increase, with investors optimistic about it surpassing 26,000 points, closing near bullish territory [1] - The index has broken through the upper Bollinger Band at 25,760, with a primary signal indicating "buy" [1] - Support is identified at 25,299 points, while resistance is at 26,343 points [1] Group 2: Alibaba Group (09988.HK) - Alibaba's stock closed at 124.5 HKD, with an intraday high of 126 HKD, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band [6] - The buying signal is strong, with short-term resistance levels at 131.8 HKD and 132.8 HKD [6] - Investors are optimistic about reaching 150 HKD, but it requires time for observation; safe options are available with a buyback price of 111 HKD [6] Group 3: Baidu Group (09888.HK) - Baidu's stock closed at 91 HKD, having risen from the lower Bollinger Band to the upper band [13] - Key resistance levels are at 93.7 HKD and 97 HKD, with support at 87.4 HKD and 84.1 HKD [13] - The buyback price for held options is considered safe [13] Group 4: JD Group (09618.HK) - JD's stock closed at 126.6 HKD, with a bullish outlook despite being below the lower Bollinger Band [17] - Resistance levels are identified at 130.7 HKD and 134.8 HKD, with 135 HKD being a significant target for investors [17] - The overall signal remains "buy" [17] Group 5: Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock closed at 11.92 HKD, with a high of 12.09 HKD, showing a strong upward trend from a low of 7.75 HKD [24] - The buying signal is confirmed, with resistance at 13 HKD and 13.6 HKD [24] - Options with an exercise price of 12.75 HKD are expected to move from out-of-the-money to in-the-money [24] Group 6: Zijin Mining (02899.HK) - Zijin Mining's stock is near the upper Bollinger Band, with a strong buy signal [30] - Resistance levels are at 25.8 HKD and 26 HKD, which investors should monitor [30]
8月22日【港股Podcast】恆指、中興通訊、華虹、小米、快手、港交所
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-22 12:58
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to open higher next Monday, with predictions of a rise between 300 to 500 points, aiming to challenge the 26,000 mark [1] - Current resistance level for HSI is at 25,578 points, and if broken, it could test 25,995 points [1] - The closing index is at 25,339 points, which is close to the day's high of 25,349 points, indicating a positive trend [1] Group 2 - ZTE Corporation (00763.HK) shows strong momentum, with a recent price of 36.06 HKD, and a potential resistance at 39.9 HKD and 43 HKD [8] - Investors holding a call option with an exercise price of 40 HKD are seeing a 12% out-of-the-money level based on current prices [8] Group 3 - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) closed at 56 HKD, with a buy signal despite a significant price increase, and resistance at 63.4 HKD [10] - Support levels are identified at 47.1 HKD and 43.1 HKD [10] Group 4 - Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) closed at 52.55 HKD, below the Bollinger channel, indicating a sell signal [17] - Support levels are at 50.8 HKD and 49.2 HKD, with resistance at 54.6 HKD [17] Group 5 - Kuaishou Technology (01024.HK) fluctuated between 69.2 HKD and 75.3 HKD, with a buy signal but not reaching a strong buy position [20] - Support levels are at 70.5 HKD and 67 HKD [20] Group 6 - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) closed at 448 HKD, with a buy signal and a first resistance level at 456 HKD [28] - Support levels are at 436 HKD and 426 HKD [28]
8月21日【港股Podcast】恆指、百度、中移動、長城汽車、華潤啤酒、蔚來
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-21 20:06
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,104 points, slightly below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (25,113), indicating a neutral trading signal with no clear direction [1] - Support levels are identified at 24,717 points and 24,200 points, while resistance levels are at 25,400 points and 25,900 points [1] - Investors are advised to be cautious and consider waiting for clearer signals before making directional trades [1] Group 2: Baidu Group (09888.HK) - Baidu's stock price closed at 85 HKD, having fallen below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and approaching a low of 83.9 HKD [6] - The analysis indicates a "sell" signal, with long-term prospects remaining positive; support levels are at 81.8 HKD and 78.5 HKD [6] Group 3: China Mobile (00941.HK) - China Mobile's stock reached a high of 89.7 HKD, surpassing the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands, and closed at 89.4 HKD [13] - The trading signal is classified as "strong buy," with resistance levels at 90.7 HKD and 96.1 HKD for investors to consider [13] Group 4: Great Wall Motors (02333.HK) - Great Wall Motors' stock price has shown a positive trend, reaching a high of 18.3 HKD and closing above the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands [18] - The signal is a "buy," with the first resistance level at 19.2 HKD and a second resistance level at 21.4 HKD [18] Group 5: China Resources Beer (00291.HK) - The stock price has shown a rapid upward movement, with a high of 28.98 HKD and a closing price of 28.34 HKD [24] - The trading signal is a "buy," with resistance levels at 29.2 HKD and 30.7 HKD [24] Group 6: NIO Inc. (09866.HK) - NIO's stock price closed at 41.18 HKD after reaching a high of 41.38 HKD, indicating a strong upward trend [26] - The analysis suggests a "buy" signal, with resistance levels at 43.2 HKD and 45.3 HKD [26]
瑞聲突破保力加通道頂部;關鍵阻力位52元在望!
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-18 19:17
Core Viewpoint - 瑞声科技 (02018) has shown strong upward momentum, breaking through key technical levels and signaling potential for further gains in the near term [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The stock price reached a high of 50.6 HKD, currently trading at 50.15 HKD, reflecting a 6.03% increase [1]. - The price has surpassed the 10-day (44.86 HKD), 30-day (41.93 HKD), and 60-day (40.45 HKD) moving averages, indicating a "buy" signal [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 76, entering the overbought territory, while the Williams and Stochastic indicators also signal buying opportunities [1]. - CCI indicator shows overbought conditions, suggesting potential short-term pullback risks [1]. Support and Resistance Levels - Immediate support levels are at 45.1 HKD (Support 1) and 42.8 HKD (Support 2) [2]. - Resistance levels are identified at 52 HKD (Resistance 1) and 56.2 HKD (Resistance 2) [2]. Derivative Products Performance - A notable performance was observed in the recommended derivative products, with a call option (15694) surging by 50% during a 9.13% rise in 瑞声科技 [4]. - The 国君 call option (15427) offers a leverage of 5.5 times with an exercise price of 54.73 HKD, making it suitable for investors anticipating a breakout above 52 HKD [6]. - The 中银 call option (18352) has a slightly lower leverage of 2.8 times but offers a favorable implied volatility of 61.89%, suitable for short-term trading [6]. Market Sentiment - The market shows mixed sentiments with a 5-day volatility of 12.6%, reflecting differing opinions on future price movements [2]. - The bullish camp argues that the MACD and moving averages indicate strong short-term momentum, suggesting that any pullback could be a buying opportunity [10]. - Conversely, the cautious camp highlights the overbought RSI and potential for a price correction, advocating for strict stop-loss measures when entering positions [10].