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10月24日【港股Podcast】恆指、贛鋒鋰業、華虹半導體、中芯國際、小米集團、中國移動
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-25 19:56
1、恆指:看好的投資者認為下週先突破26300再突破26700,不過有人選擇清倉牛證,週末觀望;看淡投資者認為下周又要暴跌至25500附近,入手熊證,收 回價26670點。 Simon:歡迎來到今天(24日)的港股回顧。我們先來看一下恆指的情況,首先,相信今天恆指應該是小幅上漲了,這想必也讓投資者們感到比較開心,因為 看到指數回升到了26000點以上,並且收復了26160點。以目前的收盤點位來看,其實能發現指數已經開始接近保力加通道中線,目前這條中期均線大概在 26276點左右。指數技術信號的總結。目前從短線來看,技術信號以"賣出"為主,有9個賣出信號,4個買入信號,所以賣出信號會稍微多一些。出現這種情 況,有一種可能是因為指數已經接近保力加通道的中期均線附近。回顧一下,比如前幾天指數也曾走到保力加通道中期均線附近,之後就出現了不錯的調 整。所以,如果用技術信號來做分析,目前指數處於中期均線附近,出現調整的概率可能會相對高一些。因此整體來看,短期技術信號還是以賣出為主。 現在如果我們從阻力位的角度去分析,計算得出目前的阻力位大概就在26700點附近,這和投資者的分析是一致的。如果指數能突破26700點,那麼接 ...
10月17日【港股Podcast】恆指、美團、寧德時代、中移動、中海油、匯豐
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-20 11:01
恆指 (HSI) 信號總結 賣出信號 買入信號 中立信號 買入 7 6 8 더 简介汇 恆指(HSI)衍生品回顧 60% 58% 48% -2.56% -2.56% -2.56% 中銀熊證 磨退認法證 中銀熊證 58247 59159 18782 Simon:大家好,現在先和大家回顧一下港股的情況。今天(10月17日)的收市價是25247點左右。其實今天最大的問題就是下跌。我一直都說,下跌本身 並不可怕,但如果跌穿了一些關鍵的技術點位,情況就不太理想了。比如按今天的收市價計算,能看到恆指已經跌穿了保力加通道的底部,成交量也比昨天 稍微大了一些,而且RSI也已經到了一個比較低的水準。 所以整體來看,今天恆指這一波下跌,我相信會給不少投資者帶來較大的心理影響。這裏還想多提醒一句,可能有點馬後炮,或者說在事後複盤,但還是希 望大家記住,當遇到像今天這樣波動比較大的行情時,在選擇產品方面,儘量選擇收回價稍遠一些的產品。不管大家用什麼方法計算收回價,也不管哪種產 品適合自己的風險承受能力,都要記住一個原則:當面對波動較大的行情,比如今天這樣大幅下跌時,如果選擇的產品收回價比較近,雖然收回價近最大的 吸引力是槓桿率高,但 ...
保力加通道頂部遇阻!騰訊665元成多空分水嶺
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-30 19:47
港股焦點騰訊控股(00700)近期走勢再度成為市場話題,今日升0.76%,股價報665元。 對於看好騰訊短線突破的投資者,可以考慮輕微價外、引伸波幅相對較低的認購證。國君認購證(19049)提供約10.2倍槓桿,行使價751.2元,其溢價和引 伸波幅在同類產品中均屬最低。另一選擇是瑞銀認購證(18902),槓桿9.1倍,行使價同為751.2元,引伸波幅亦處於相對低位。若傾向看淡後市,市場亦有 認沽證可供選擇。中銀認沽證(20518)和瑞銀認沽證(15152)均提供約8倍槓桿,後者更擁有最低溢價,引伸波幅和槓桿水準都比較理想。 牛熊證方面,對於認為騰訊會在635-700元區間整理的投資者,可以考慮相關產品。看好可留意瑞銀牛證(63073)或滙豐牛證(61968),收回價分別在635 元和636元,槓桿約18倍。看淡則有瑞銀熊證(66241)和摩通熊證(66094),收回價同設於700元水準。 從技術走勢觀察,騰訊目前關鍵支持位處於638元,下一支持參考617元水準。上方阻力方面,678元為初步阻力,突破後有望挑戰692元。值得留意的是,股 價目前企穩於10天線(647元)之上,並且遠高於30天及60天線,反映中 ...
9月5日【港股Podcast】恆指、華虹、美團、比亞迪、神華、舜宇
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-05 20:08
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - Investors remain optimistic about the Hang Seng Index, expecting it to challenge 26,000 next week, with a buyback price of 24,800 for bull certificates [1] - Short-term technical signals indicate a "sell" recommendation, with bearish signals prevailing; support at 25,000 and resistance at 25,700 and 26,100 [1] - Cautious investors are advised to choose products with a buyback price below the second support level of 24,733 [1] Group 2: Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) - The stock price closed at 47.58, with investors holding call options with an exercise price of 48; short-term signals indicate a "buy" [7] - Resistance levels are identified at 52.8 and 56.6, with a recommendation to consider options with an exercise price of 50, which is slightly out of the money [7] Group 3: Meituan-W (03690.HK) - The stock price has been trading between 98 and 104 for two weeks, with a closing price of 103; the recommendation is a "buy" [9] - Resistance levels are at 118.9 and 119.1; caution is advised for investors holding options with an exercise price of 158, as it is significantly out of the money [9] Group 4: BYD Company (01211.HK) - The stock is viewed as a strong buy, with potential for a rebound; support levels are at 102.3 and 95.9 [14] - Investors are considering bullish certificates with a target of 100 [14] Group 5: China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) - The stock has closed above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, but the overall signal is a "sell" [18] - Support levels are at 35.2 and 34.5, which investors should consider [18] Group 6: Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) - The stock is below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands; the recommendation is a "buy" [24] - Resistance levels are at 83.4 and 87.6, with short-term support at 75.9 and 71.2 [24]
8月25日【港股Podcast】恆指、阿里、百度、京東、洛陽鉬業、紫金
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-25 11:22
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has shown a significant increase, with investors optimistic about it surpassing 26,000 points, closing near bullish territory [1] - The index has broken through the upper Bollinger Band at 25,760, with a primary signal indicating "buy" [1] - Support is identified at 25,299 points, while resistance is at 26,343 points [1] Group 2: Alibaba Group (09988.HK) - Alibaba's stock closed at 124.5 HKD, with an intraday high of 126 HKD, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band [6] - The buying signal is strong, with short-term resistance levels at 131.8 HKD and 132.8 HKD [6] - Investors are optimistic about reaching 150 HKD, but it requires time for observation; safe options are available with a buyback price of 111 HKD [6] Group 3: Baidu Group (09888.HK) - Baidu's stock closed at 91 HKD, having risen from the lower Bollinger Band to the upper band [13] - Key resistance levels are at 93.7 HKD and 97 HKD, with support at 87.4 HKD and 84.1 HKD [13] - The buyback price for held options is considered safe [13] Group 4: JD Group (09618.HK) - JD's stock closed at 126.6 HKD, with a bullish outlook despite being below the lower Bollinger Band [17] - Resistance levels are identified at 130.7 HKD and 134.8 HKD, with 135 HKD being a significant target for investors [17] - The overall signal remains "buy" [17] Group 5: Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock closed at 11.92 HKD, with a high of 12.09 HKD, showing a strong upward trend from a low of 7.75 HKD [24] - The buying signal is confirmed, with resistance at 13 HKD and 13.6 HKD [24] - Options with an exercise price of 12.75 HKD are expected to move from out-of-the-money to in-the-money [24] Group 6: Zijin Mining (02899.HK) - Zijin Mining's stock is near the upper Bollinger Band, with a strong buy signal [30] - Resistance levels are at 25.8 HKD and 26 HKD, which investors should monitor [30]
8月22日【港股Podcast】恆指、中興通訊、華虹、小米、快手、港交所
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-22 12:58
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to open higher next Monday, with predictions of a rise between 300 to 500 points, aiming to challenge the 26,000 mark [1] - Current resistance level for HSI is at 25,578 points, and if broken, it could test 25,995 points [1] - The closing index is at 25,339 points, which is close to the day's high of 25,349 points, indicating a positive trend [1] Group 2 - ZTE Corporation (00763.HK) shows strong momentum, with a recent price of 36.06 HKD, and a potential resistance at 39.9 HKD and 43 HKD [8] - Investors holding a call option with an exercise price of 40 HKD are seeing a 12% out-of-the-money level based on current prices [8] Group 3 - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) closed at 56 HKD, with a buy signal despite a significant price increase, and resistance at 63.4 HKD [10] - Support levels are identified at 47.1 HKD and 43.1 HKD [10] Group 4 - Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) closed at 52.55 HKD, below the Bollinger channel, indicating a sell signal [17] - Support levels are at 50.8 HKD and 49.2 HKD, with resistance at 54.6 HKD [17] Group 5 - Kuaishou Technology (01024.HK) fluctuated between 69.2 HKD and 75.3 HKD, with a buy signal but not reaching a strong buy position [20] - Support levels are at 70.5 HKD and 67 HKD [20] Group 6 - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) closed at 448 HKD, with a buy signal and a first resistance level at 456 HKD [28] - Support levels are at 436 HKD and 426 HKD [28]
8月21日【港股Podcast】恆指、百度、中移動、長城汽車、華潤啤酒、蔚來
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-21 20:06
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,104 points, slightly below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (25,113), indicating a neutral trading signal with no clear direction [1] - Support levels are identified at 24,717 points and 24,200 points, while resistance levels are at 25,400 points and 25,900 points [1] - Investors are advised to be cautious and consider waiting for clearer signals before making directional trades [1] Group 2: Baidu Group (09888.HK) - Baidu's stock price closed at 85 HKD, having fallen below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and approaching a low of 83.9 HKD [6] - The analysis indicates a "sell" signal, with long-term prospects remaining positive; support levels are at 81.8 HKD and 78.5 HKD [6] Group 3: China Mobile (00941.HK) - China Mobile's stock reached a high of 89.7 HKD, surpassing the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands, and closed at 89.4 HKD [13] - The trading signal is classified as "strong buy," with resistance levels at 90.7 HKD and 96.1 HKD for investors to consider [13] Group 4: Great Wall Motors (02333.HK) - Great Wall Motors' stock price has shown a positive trend, reaching a high of 18.3 HKD and closing above the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands [18] - The signal is a "buy," with the first resistance level at 19.2 HKD and a second resistance level at 21.4 HKD [18] Group 5: China Resources Beer (00291.HK) - The stock price has shown a rapid upward movement, with a high of 28.98 HKD and a closing price of 28.34 HKD [24] - The trading signal is a "buy," with resistance levels at 29.2 HKD and 30.7 HKD [24] Group 6: NIO Inc. (09866.HK) - NIO's stock price closed at 41.18 HKD after reaching a high of 41.38 HKD, indicating a strong upward trend [26] - The analysis suggests a "buy" signal, with resistance levels at 43.2 HKD and 45.3 HKD [26]
瑞聲突破保力加通道頂部;關鍵阻力位52元在望!
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-18 19:17
Core Viewpoint - 瑞声科技 (02018) has shown strong upward momentum, breaking through key technical levels and signaling potential for further gains in the near term [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The stock price reached a high of 50.6 HKD, currently trading at 50.15 HKD, reflecting a 6.03% increase [1]. - The price has surpassed the 10-day (44.86 HKD), 30-day (41.93 HKD), and 60-day (40.45 HKD) moving averages, indicating a "buy" signal [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 76, entering the overbought territory, while the Williams and Stochastic indicators also signal buying opportunities [1]. - CCI indicator shows overbought conditions, suggesting potential short-term pullback risks [1]. Support and Resistance Levels - Immediate support levels are at 45.1 HKD (Support 1) and 42.8 HKD (Support 2) [2]. - Resistance levels are identified at 52 HKD (Resistance 1) and 56.2 HKD (Resistance 2) [2]. Derivative Products Performance - A notable performance was observed in the recommended derivative products, with a call option (15694) surging by 50% during a 9.13% rise in 瑞声科技 [4]. - The 国君 call option (15427) offers a leverage of 5.5 times with an exercise price of 54.73 HKD, making it suitable for investors anticipating a breakout above 52 HKD [6]. - The 中银 call option (18352) has a slightly lower leverage of 2.8 times but offers a favorable implied volatility of 61.89%, suitable for short-term trading [6]. Market Sentiment - The market shows mixed sentiments with a 5-day volatility of 12.6%, reflecting differing opinions on future price movements [2]. - The bullish camp argues that the MACD and moving averages indicate strong short-term momentum, suggesting that any pullback could be a buying opportunity [10]. - Conversely, the cautious camp highlights the overbought RSI and potential for a price correction, advocating for strict stop-loss measures when entering positions [10].
8月15日【港股Podcast】恆指、中金、長汽、網易、中移動、瑞聲科技
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-15 11:12
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - Investors believe that 25,200 is a strong support level, with expectations to test 25,500 next week [1] - Technical signals indicate a "buy" recommendation, with resistance levels at 25,600 and 26,100, and support levels at 24,779 and 24,400 [1] - For bullish investors, a call option with a redemption price of 24,618 is considered relatively safe, while a more conservative option at 24,400 is also available [1] Group 2: China International Capital Corporation (CICC) - The stock price has been steadily rising since August, with a closing price surpassing the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a "buy" signal [6] - Resistance levels are identified at 24.7 and 25.5, while a potential entry point on a pullback is suggested at 20.6, which is lower than investor expectations [6] Group 3: Great Wall Motors (GWM) - The stock has risen for 10 consecutive days, closing above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating an upward trend and a "buy" signal [9] - Resistance levels are at 16.7 and 17.8, with support levels at 14.2 and 13.6 for potential entry points [9] Group 4: NetEase (NTES) - The stock has shown high volatility with a 9% price range over the last three days, currently signaling a "strong sell" [16] - Support levels are at 195.6 and 189.3, and investors are advised to consider options closer to the market price rather than out-of-the-money options [16] Group 5: China Mobile (CHL) - The stock closed at 88.25, with a "buy" signal, but holding a call option with a redemption price of 84.5 is considered risky [22] - The first support level is at 84.8, and a safer option would be to consider the second support level at 81.5 [22] Group 6: AAC Technologies (AAC) - The stock has broken above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a "buy" signal, with short-term positive momentum [27] - Resistance levels are at 48.5 and 51.7, with potential to break the 50 yuan mark as anticipated by investors [27]
8月13日【港股Podcast】恆指、美團、紫金礦業、洛陽鉬業、吉利、百度
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-13 10:58
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,613 points, approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 25,782 points, with a neutral signal despite a significant increase [1] - Resistance levels are identified at 25,831 and 26,300 points, with a potential breakthrough of the key level at 26,000 [1] - Support levels are noted at 24,900 and 24,600 points, suggesting caution for investors holding bearish products [1] Group 2: Meituan-W (03690.HK) - Meituan's stock price closed at 124.3 HKD, near the middle Bollinger Band at 125.6 HKD, indicating a sell signal [7] - The stock has faced resistance below the middle line since August, with support levels at 119.3 HKD and 113.2 HKD [7] - Investors are advised to monitor the buyback price of 106 HKD for bullish products [7] Group 3: Zijin Mining (02899.HK) - Zijin Mining's stock price is near the upper Bollinger Band at 23.78 HKD, with a strong buy signal [14] - Resistance levels are at 24.4 HKD and 25.4 HKD, with a longer observation needed for a potential rise to 30 HKD [14] - Support levels are identified at 22.3 HKD and 21.2 HKD for potential low-position entry [14] Group 4: Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) - The stock has maintained an upward trend since mid-July, rising from 7.9 HKD to 10.6 HKD, with a buy signal [21] - Resistance levels are at 11.1 HKD and 11.7 HKD, both below 12 HKD [21] - The exercise price of 11.13 HKD for call options is considered stable [21] Group 5: Geely Automobile (00175.HK) - Geely's stock shows a buy signal, with current resistance at 19.8 HKD and potential to test 20.7 HKD [27] - Investors are encouraged to assess future trends while considering their risk tolerance [27] Group 6: Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK) - Baidu's stock closed at 88.15 HKD, breaking the middle Bollinger Band and indicating a buy signal [32] - Resistance levels are at 90.8 HKD and 94.1 HKD, with support at 84.2 HKD and 81.2 HKD [32] - Investors are advised to consider buying calls below 85 HKD [32]