1月7日【港股Podcast】恆指、港交所、兗礦能源、友邦保險、中移動、阿里 1、恆指：有多頭投資者繼續看好指數直上27000點，繼續持有牛證，收回價25854點。看跌投資者認為小反彈結束，會再跌300-400點，持有收回價27300點 的熊證。 Simon：大家好呀，那今天我們就繼續來回顧一下港股的情況。記得吧，今天的股市，先看恆指方面，今天是有所回落的。也就是說，在昨天達到一個高位 之後，今天出現了一些調整。其實我們也能看到，就像前兩天提到的，比如到目前為止的短線技術信號總結。前兩天的時候，就以賣出信號居多，所以有時 候真的會覺得，一些技術信號的總結，或許能給大家提供一些參考。當然，我們不是說今天講完明天就會立刻出現相應的走勢，但是如果像一些短線信號， 要是真的偏強或者偏弱的話，我們也會跟大家回饋，希望大家能有更多資訊方面的參考。 好啦，先來看一下投資者的看法。看好的投資者會繼續認為，指數有機會上漲到27000點。如果真的漲到27000點，那有可能會比之前的高位還要再高一些。 他們也一直在買入一些牛證。但也有看淡的投資者認為，這一次的小反彈就要結束了，有可能會再下跌一些。當然啦，市場上有人看好有人看淡是很 ...

Simon：大家好呀，又到了我們的港股回顧時間。首先，我們還是先來看一下恆指數的走勢。 1、恆指：投資者表示壓低指數入牛證，過幾日準備拉升，收回價25500的牛證；也有看跌投資者認為日線穿頭破，26100企不穩都要繼續跌。 Simon：相信今天（8日）恆指的表現會讓不少投資者感到些許失望，因為今天恆指確實跌得比較多。上周五的時候，恆指曾經回升到保利加通道中線的位 置，但今天最終出現了較大幅度的下跌，又回落了下來。其實觀察近期走勢就能發現，恆指好幾次都嘗試衝擊保利加通道中線，但每次觸及中線後，都會出 現調整回落的情況，今天的走勢也是如此。上周五恆指的高位已經接近保利加通道中線，今天盤中高位同樣挨近甚至觸及了中線位置，但收盤時卻收在了 25765點，沒能站穩中線，稍微觸碰後就又跌了下來。 對於後續走勢，有投資者表示依然會繼續看好，會選擇買入牛證；也有投資者認為可能還會再跌一點，打算等後續再買入牛證，因為他們覺得市場或許還存 在一些調整空間；當然，也有投資者持看跌態度，這很正常，市場上總有看漲和看跌的分歧。看跌的投資者認為，如果當前的下跌走勢持續下去，後續市場 大概率還是以看跌為主。 賣出信號 信號總結 中立信號 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) showed a significant increase, closing at 25,890.4 points, recovering from previous declines [1][2] - The trading volume decreased compared to the previous day, indicating a lack of strong momentum despite the price increase [1] - Technical indicators suggest a neutral market sentiment, with mixed signals from various indicators [1] Group 2: Alibaba (09988.HK) - Alibaba's stock price rose to 157.8 HKD, nearing the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 159.6 HKD [9] - Investors in the warrant market are beginning to clear their bullish positions, indicating profit-taking behavior [9] - The stock has shown significant volatility, with a price fluctuation of approximately 8.6% over the past five trading days [10] Group 3: Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) - Xiaomi's stock price has rebounded to around 40.34 HKD after stabilizing at a low of 36.62 HKD [17] - Technical signals indicate a slight bullish sentiment, with 9 buy signals compared to 5 sell signals [17] - The resistance level is identified at 43.4 HKD, while support is at approximately 38.2 HKD [17] Group 4: JD.com (09618.HK) - JD.com's stock closed at 112.4 HKD, with a decrease in trading volume compared to the previous day [20] - The technical outlook is slightly positive, with 9 buy signals and 5 sell signals [20] - The resistance level is at 118.8 HKD, with potential for further gains if this level is surpassed [20] Group 5: AIA Group (01299.HK) - AIA's stock price is currently at 79.25 HKD, stabilizing near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [27] - The market sentiment remains neutral, with buy and sell signals being nearly equal [27] - The resistance level is at 82.5 HKD, and a breakthrough could lead to further gains [27] Group 6: CanSino Biologics (09926.HK) - CanSino's stock price closed at 116 HKD, above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a positive signal [33] - The stock has shown increased trading volume, suggesting a strong upward movement [33] - Technical signals are neutral, with equal buy and sell signals, but potential resistance is at 121.6 HKD [33]

Group 1 - The latest bull-bear ratio of the Hang Seng Index is 65:35 as of November 14 [1] - The heavy area for bear certificates is in the range of 27,500 to 27,599, with the latest number of bear certificates at 815, a decrease of 93 from the previous trading day [1] - The most significant increases in bear certificates were observed in the ranges of 27,800 to 27,899 and 27,600 to 27,699, with the latest numbers at 315 and 595 respectively, both showing an increase of 41 from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The heavy area for bull certificates is in the range of 26,400 to 26,499, with the latest number of bull certificates at 885, an increase of 101 from the previous trading day [1] - The most significant increase in bull certificates was in the range of 26,600 to 26,699, with the latest number at 605, reflecting an increase of 605 from the previous trading day [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has support at 25,824 and resistance at 27,862, with a cumulative increase of 3.2% since November, driven by financial and technology stocks [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCE) has support at 9,187 and resistance at 9,891, benefiting from favorable policies for domestic real estate stocks and improved profitability in the energy sector [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) has support at 5,596 and resistance at 6,389, with a 5% increase in financing for technology stocks in November, indicating a rebound in AI chips and cloud computing sectors [1] Company Highlights - CK Hutchison (00001) plans to increase its stake in UK telecom assets, with its stock price rising 4.15% to HKD 55.25 following the announcement [1] - HSBC (00005) reported Q3 net profit exceeding expectations and plans to increase its dividend payout, boosting trading activity in the Hong Kong banking sector [1] - Tencent (00700) saw a 15% increase in Q3 gaming revenue, with its AI model being applied in financial scenarios, while shareholder Prosus announced a delay in share reduction [2] - SMIC (00981) received increased investment from the National Integrated Circuit Fund, achieving a 98% utilization rate for its 14nm production capacity, with a projected 30% net profit increase in H1 2025 [2] - Kuaishou (01024) reported a 22% increase in advertising revenue for H1 2025, with daily active users for short drama content exceeding 100 million and a 17.6% year-on-year increase in e-commerce GMV [2] - BYD (01211) sold over 300,000 new energy vehicles in October, with overseas factories commencing production and supply chain cost optimization enhancing profits [2] - Meituan (03690) experienced a 20% increase in instant retail order volume in Q3, securing exclusive partnerships with several supermarkets [2]

Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,282 points, showing a decline but remaining above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, which is a slightly positive sign [1] - There is a mixed sentiment among investors, with some being optimistic and others pessimistic, indicating a lack of a clear market direction [1][2] - Current technical signals show 8 sell signals and 6 buy signals, suggesting a predominance of sell signals but not a strong sell or buy consensus [2] Group 2: Bubble Mart (09992) Analysis - Bubble Mart's stock price has dropped to 229.8 HKD, down from previous highs around 280 HKD, and is currently struggling to regain the 230 HKD level [9] - Technical signals indicate a "strong buy" with 13 buy signals and 4 sell signals, reflecting a potential short-term upward trend [9] - Support levels are identified at 217 HKD and 187 HKD, with caution advised for investors expecting further declines before a rebound [9] Group 3: GCL-Poly Energy (03800) Insights - GCL-Poly Energy's stock price is approaching the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, with increased trading volume indicating positive momentum [14] - Current technical signals show 9 sell signals and 4 buy signals, suggesting a potential for a price correction after recent gains [14] Group 4: China Shenhua Energy (01088) Performance - China Shenhua has shown an upward trend since September 1, with the stock reaching a high of 32 HKD [19] - Resistance levels are noted at 43 HKD and 44.8 HKD, with the possibility of reaching 45 HKD requiring more time [19] Group 5: NetEase (09999) Market Position - NetEase's stock has dropped significantly, closing at 220 HKD and breaking below the lower line of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a bearish trend [25] - Key support levels are at 211 HKD and 199 HKD, with the market closely watching if it can hold above 211 HKD [25] Group 6: S&P Gold ETF (02840) Evaluation - The S&P Gold ETF has followed the market trend downwards, currently priced at 2,831 HKD, with support levels at 2,730 HKD and potential further declines to 2,630 HKD [31] - Investors holding put options should be aware of time decay affecting their positions, especially if the ETF price remains stagnant [32] Group 7: Meituan (03690) Stock Dynamics - Meituan's stock price has shown some recovery to 102.4 HKD, with increased trading volume compared to previous days [38] - Support levels are identified at 98 HKD and 94.3 HKD, with the stock currently fluctuating between these levels [38]

Group 1: Alibaba (Code: 00988) - Technical analysis indicates a support level at 144.6 and a resistance level at 185.6, with strong rebound momentum from the support level, suggesting a short-term upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 21370, 20017, and 15432, while bull warrants are 57383, 57470, and 57384 [1] Group 2: Meituan (Code: 03690) - Support level is at 88 and resistance level at 107.1, with a high probability of breaking through the resistance level, indicating an upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 19971, 20069, and 20116, with bull warrants being 58005, 53778, and 53780 [1] Group 3: Xiaomi (Code: 01810) - Technical indicators show a support level at 39.8 and a resistance level at 56.4, with the price at the lower end of an upward channel, indicating a high safety margin and short-term upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 16253, 13630, and 13979, while bull warrants are 67393, 67394, and 67402 [1] Group 4: AIA (Code: 01299) - Support level is at 68.6 and resistance level at 77.2, characterized by low volatility as a blue-chip stock, with a stable short-term upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 18410, 17948, and 18411, with bull warrants being 61825, 53008, and 61274 [1] Group 5: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (Code: 00388) - Technical analysis shows a support level at 399 and a resistance level at 460, with strong performance driven by active market trading, indicating a short-term upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 27741, 15562, and 23503, while bull warrants are 62570, 56665, and 68548 [1] Group 6: BYD (Code: 01211) - Support level is at 95.8 and resistance level at 113.8, with the stock benefiting from the popularity of the new energy sector, indicating a short-term upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 20458, 20495, and 20219, while bull warrants are 56780, 64027, and 63130 [1] Group 7: HSBC (Code: 00005) - Support level is at 94.3 and resistance level at 110.5, with a stable trend influenced by the valuation recovery in the banking sector, indicating a short-term upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 19105, 18901, and 19104, while bull warrants are 65343, 66095, and 68629 [1] Group 8: China Construction Bank (Code: 00939) - Technical indicators show a support level at 7.38 and a resistance level at 8.26, characterized as a low valuation high dividend stock with strong safety attributes, indicating a short-term upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 17265, 19572, and 20261, while bull warrants are 62134, 62178, and 57112 [1] Group 9: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Code: 01398) - Support level is at 5.55 and resistance level at 6.35, characterized by low volatility as a large-cap bank stock, indicating a clear short-term upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 20585, 20618, and 16703, while bull warrants are 65682, 57199, and 58321 [1] Group 10: China Mobile (Code: 00941) - Technical analysis indicates a support level at 78.7 and a resistance level at 91.7, with strong earnings supporting the stock price as a leader in the telecommunications industry, indicating a short-term upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 21277, 21344, and 28920, while bull warrants are 57975, 56130, and 63412 [1] Group 11: SMIC (Code: 00981) - Support level is at 58.5 and resistance level at 89.6, benefiting from favorable policies in the semiconductor sector, indicating high elasticity and a short-term upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 13923, 20790, and 20292, while bull warrants are 61294, 61093, and 60800 [1] Group 12: Kuaishou (Code: 01024) - Support level is at 63.1 and resistance level at 88, with strong rebound momentum driven by stable demand in the short video sector, indicating a short-term upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 17442, 17594, and 15122, while bull warrants are 59046, 59410, and 61399 [1] Group 13: JD.com (Code: 09618) - Technical indicators show a support level at 115.9 and a resistance level at 141.3, benefiting from the recovery in the e-commerce sector and positive earnings expectations, indicating a short-term upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 19677, 19641, and 19529, while bull warrants are 56434, 55794, and 56562 [1] Group 14: Anta (Code: 02020) - Support level is at 81 and resistance level at 95.6, characterized as a leader in sports apparel, benefiting from consumer recovery, indicating a short-term upward trend [1] - Recommended call warrants are 13440, 13921, and 15902, while bull warrants are 54515, 54416, and 65820 [1] Group 15: Tencent (Code: 00700) - Technical indicators show a support level at 581 and a resistance level at 680, indicating a short-term upward trend with ample room for growth [1] - Recommended call warrants are 18949, 18902, and 13713, while bull warrants are 55125, 67093, and 55772 [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at approximately 25,247 points on October 17, indicating a significant decline, having breached key technical levels such as the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands [1][2] - The market sentiment is affected by this drop, with many investors feeling psychological pressure due to the volatility [2] Technical Analysis - Currently, there are 8 buy signals and 7 sell signals for the HSI, suggesting a slight bias towards buying in the short term [3][7] - The immediate support level for the HSI is around 24,800 points; if this level is breached, the next support is approximately 23,700 points [4][5] - Investors are advised to select products with recovery prices further from the support level to mitigate risks associated with sudden market declines [5] Individual Stock Analysis Meituan (03690) - Meituan's stock price has also been declining, closing at 94.5 HKD, having breached the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands [9] - The first support level is around 91.1 HKD; if this is broken, the next support is at approximately 85.8 HKD [9][10] - Technical signals for Meituan show 9 buy signals and 4 sell signals, indicating a slight preference for buying [12] Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (03750) - The stock closed at 521.5 HKD, down from a high of 614 HKD, with a neutral technical signal showing 5 buy and 5 sell signals [14][15] - The support level is around 477 HKD, which is close to the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands [15] China Mobile (00941) - China Mobile's stock closed at 85.3 HKD, maintaining a neutral technical signal with potential resistance at 88.5 HKD [17][18] - If the stock price continues to rise, it could reach 91.8 HKD if it breaks the resistance level [17] China National Petroleum Corporation (00857) - The stock closed at 7.32 HKD, with a bearish technical signal showing 8 sell signals and 5 buy signals [23][24] - The first resistance level is at 7.5 HKD, and if this is surpassed, it could rise to 7.7 HKD [23] HSBC Holdings (00005) - HSBC's stock closed at 100.9 HKD, just above the support level of 96.7 HKD [29][30] - The technical signals show 8 buy signals and 7 sell signals, indicating a slight preference for buying [32]

Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a slight decline of approximately 22 points, closing at 25,888 points, indicating a lack of clear market direction among investors [1] - Investors are divided, with some bullish investors waiting for the index to reach 26,250 points to fill the gap, while bearish investors anticipate a drop to the 25,200-25,400 range [1] - Current technical signals show a "neutral" market, with an equal number of buy and sell indicators, suggesting no clear trend [2] Group 2: BYD Electronics (00285) - BYD Electronics has seen an increase in trading volume over the past two days, indicating potential buying interest, with a resistance level around 43 HKD [8] - The stock is currently in a "neutral" technical state, similar to the HSI, with no clear direction indicated by the technical signals [8] - If the stock continues to rise, it may challenge the 43 HKD level, while a pullback could see it drop to the 38-39 HKD range [8] Group 3: Xiaomi Group (01810) - Xiaomi's stock has been on a downward trend, reaching a low of 47.32 HKD, but technical signals currently show a "buy" bias with 10 buy signals against 5 sell signals [14] - The short-term resistance level is around 52.7 HKD, while the support level is at 45.8 HKD, with a potential drop to 39.9 HKD if the support is breached [14] - The market sentiment is mixed, with both bullish and bearish perspectives present [14] Group 4: China Shenhua (01088) - China Shenhua's stock has performed well recently, closing at 40.98 HKD, but is considered to be at a relatively high level, with an RSI of 86 indicating overbought conditions [20] - Technical signals suggest a "sell" bias with 8 sell signals and 5 buy signals, indicating a potentially weaker trend [20] - The current resistance level is around 42.2 HKD, with a support level at 39.5 HKD [20] Group 5: Sunny Optical Technology (02382) - Sunny Optical has shown a rebound over the past two days but remains at low levels, with no clear reversal signals yet [26] - Technical analysis indicates a "buy" bias with 8 buy signals and 5 sell signals, suggesting a slightly stronger outlook [26] - The resistance level to watch for a potential rise to 88 HKD is around 85.4 HKD, with a possibility of reaching 89.7 HKD if this level is surpassed [26] Group 6: Bilibili (09626.HK) - Bilibili's stock has recently rebounded, closing at 212 HKD, approaching the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at around 215 HKD [30] - Current technical signals are "neutral," indicating no clear direction, and investors are advised to wait for further analysis [30] - The first support level is around 199 HKD, with a potential drop to 188 HKD if this level is breached [30]

Core Viewpoint - As of September 27, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) shows a bull-bear ratio of 59:41, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Bearish Sentiment - The heavy concentration of bear certificates is in the range of 26,700 to 26,799, with the latest count at 1,002 certificates, an increase of 421 from the previous trading day [1] - The most significant increase in bear certificates occurred in the 26,700 to 26,799 range, reflecting heightened bearish sentiment [1] Group 2: Bullish Sentiment - The heavy concentration of bull certificates is in the range of 25,800 to 25,899, with the latest count at 1,013 certificates, an increase of 405 from the previous trading day [1] - The largest increase in bull certificates was noted in the 25,700 to 25,799 range, where the latest count reached 865 certificates, up by 583 from the previous trading day [1]