行 华福证券 国防军工 2025 年 11 月 24 日 业 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：静待十五五规划 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 11 月 18 日，解放军报报道，日前，海军福建舰航母编队组织海上多 科目训练，这是福建舰入列后首次海上实兵训练。歼-35、歼-15T、歼-15DT、 空警-600 等多型舰载机在福建舰陆续完成了多架次弹射起飞和着舰训练， 有效检验了福建舰电磁弹射、回收和甲板作业能力。 2）隐身材料：【佳驰科技】、【华秦科技】； 3）深海：【西部材料】、【中国海防】； 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 11 月 17 日，2025 迪拜国际航空展开幕,，中航工业集团组织中航技以 "全面迈向高端新时代"为主题参展。本届航展，航空工业集团"翼龙" -X、"20 家族"等高端航空装备悉数亮相，进一步开拓国际市场。其中， 阿联酋空军"骑士"表演队换装 L15 高级教练机后带来精彩全球首秀，新 型高商载货运无人机概念方案首次面向全球市场进行展出，"翼龙"-X 无 人机首次以静展形式亮相境外航展。展区展示了由战斗机、直升机、教练 机、运输机、无人机组成的谱 ...

华福证券指出，"十五五"时期国防和军队现代化建设投入体量大、精准化要求高，必须走高效益、 低成本、可持续发展路子。要加快先进战斗力建设，推进新域新质作战力量规模化、实战化、体系化发 展，加强传统作战力量升级改造，统筹网络信息体系建设运用，加快无人智能作战力量及反制能力建 设，加紧国防科技创新和先进技术转化。同时要巩固提高一体化国家战略体系和能力，推动新质生产力 同新质战斗力高效融合、双向拉动，建设先进国防科技工业体系，优化国防科技工业布局。在26-27年 【十五五计划将近】＋【建军百年目标】+【军贸快速发展】等多重催化下，国防军工行业内外需均将 实现大幅增长。当前军工板块估值虽处于历史较高分位，但考虑到2026年行业基本面强恢复预期，仍具 备较高配置意义。 军工ETF（512660）跟踪的是中证军工指数（399967），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及航空、航 天、船舶、兵器及军事电子等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映中国军工行业上市公司证券的 整体表现。指数成分股呈现中小盘风格，主要聚焦于航空装备与军工电子行业。 注：数据来源wind、截至2025.11.19，军工ETF规模为144.61亿，在同类12只产 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality advancement in national defense and military modernization, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the goal of achieving a strong military by 2027 [43][44] - It highlights the need for efficient resource utilization and cost control in military modernization efforts, advocating for a sustainable development approach [4][45] - The report anticipates significant growth in both domestic and international demand for military products and services, driven by multiple catalysts including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and rapid military trade development [10][47] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The military industry is rated as "Outperform the Market," indicating expected returns above the market benchmark [5] Key Points from the Report - The report outlines the fundamental requirements for military modernization during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on advanced combat capabilities and military governance modernization [43][44] - It stresses the integration of new production capabilities with combat capabilities, enhancing the national strategic system and capabilities [44] - The report also discusses the necessity of policy support to address challenges in planning and cross-domain collaboration [4][45] Market Performance - The military industry index decreased by 2.15% from November 10 to November 14, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.08% [12][18] - The military index has increased by 13.35% since 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 17.62%, indicating a relative underperformance of 4.27% [20] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include Tian'ao Electronics and Shanghai HuGong, which saw increases of 12.63% and 12.35% respectively, while stocks like Chunzong Technology and Lais Information experienced declines of 17.43% and 15.39% [24][26] Fund Flows and Valuation - The report notes a decrease in passive fund sizes but an increase in fund shares, with a net inflow of 4.57 billion yuan into military ETFs during the week [28] - As of November 14, the military sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 68.88, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels, but with expectations of recovery in 2026 [46][37]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes optimism regarding the domestic and overseas new productive forces in the military industry, particularly with the recent commissioning of China's first electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier, which showcases advanced technology [3][39] - The report anticipates a favorable development in the military industry fundamentals from Q4 2025 to 2026, driven by the nearing 14th Five-Year Plan and the centenary goals of the military [3][39] - The military industry is expected to experience significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand due to multiple catalysts, including the 14th Five-Year Plan and rapid military trade development [4][40] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - From November 3 to November 7, the Shenwan Military Industry Index (801740) decreased by 0.47%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.82%, resulting in an underperformance of -1.29 percentage points [10][15] - Since 2025, the Shenwan Military Industry Index has risen by 15.84%, compared to an 18.9% increase in the CSI 300 Index, leading to a relative underperformance of -3.07 percentage points [17] 2. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on various sectors within the military industry, including: 1. Land Equipment: Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, Ligong Navigation, Baiao Intelligent, Great Wall Military Industry, and China Ordnance Arrow 2. Stealth Materials: Jiach Technology, Huaqin Technology 3. Deep Sea: Western Materials, China Marine Defense 4. Engines: Hangyu Technology, Hangya Technology, Tunang Co. 5. Unmanned & Anti-Unmanned: Zongheng Co., Aerospace Rainbow, Ruike Laser, Sichuang Electronics, and Xinjing Steel 6. AI Intelligence: Xingtuxinke, Aerospace Electronics 7. Aircraft: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft 8. Nuclear Fusion: Guoguang Electric, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Hezhuan Intelligent, Xuguang Electronics, Yongding Co., Jingye Intelligent, Weiteng Electric, Xinfengguang, Aike Saibo, Paike New Materials, Wangzi New Materials, and Hongwei Technology [4][40][42] 3. Valuation and Funding - As of November 7, the current TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Military Industry Index is 70.35, with a percentile rank of 92.55%, indicating a high configuration significance at this time [4][31] - The report notes a decrease in passive fund sizes and shares, with a net outflow of 617 million yuan from military ETFs, although the trend of net outflows has weakened [25][30] - The report anticipates a recovery in passive fund inflows due to strong demand recovery expectations in the military industry for 2025-2026 [30]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][55]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the expectation of a favorable development in the military industry from Q4 2025 to 2026, driven by the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan and the centenary goal of the military [4][39]. - The military industry is anticipated to experience significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand due to multiple catalysts, including the 14th Five-Year Plan and rapid military trade development [4][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The military index (801740) fell by 4.61% from October 9 to October 17, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 2.73%, resulting in an underperformance of 1.88 percentage points [10][15]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has increased by 13.28%, compared to a 14.72% rise in the CSI 300 index, leading to a relative underperformance of 1.44 percentage points [17]. 2. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include: 1. Land Equipment: Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, LIGONG Navigation, Bai'ao Intelligent, Great Wall Military, and China Ordnance Red Arrow 2. Stealth Materials: Jiachitech and Huaqin Technology 3. Deep Sea: Western Materials and China Marine Defense 4. Engines: Hangyu Technology, Hangya Technology, and Tunan Co. 5. Drones & Anti-drone: Zongheng Co., Aerospace Rainbow, Ruike Laser, Sichuang Electronics, and Xinjinggang 6. AI Intelligence: Xingtuxinke and Aerospace Electronics 7. Aircraft: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft 8. Nuclear Fusion: Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Hezhuan Intelligent, Guoguang Electric, Jingye Intelligent, Weiteng Electric, Xinfengguang, Xuguang Electronics, Aike Saibo, Parker New Materials, Yongding Co., Wangzi New Materials, and Hongwei Technology [4][40]. 3. Fund and Valuation Analysis - As of October 17, the military index's TTM P/E ratio is 73.81, with a percentile rank of 96.47%, indicating a high configuration value given the strong recovery expectations for 2025 [4][39][30]. - The report notes a decrease in the scale of passive funds but an increase in fund shares, with a net inflow of 1.391 billion yuan into military ETFs, suggesting continued confidence in the military sector [25][30].

Core Viewpoint - The defense and aerospace industry in China is expected to experience significant growth potential driven by multiple catalysts, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "100th Anniversary of the Army" [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Potential - The defense and aerospace sector is projected to see substantial growth in both domestic and international demand from 2025 to 2027 due to various stimulating factors [1] - The military industry sector has been on a continuous upward trend since the end of June 2025, although there has been a slight recent pullback [1] - Upcoming events such as the September 3 military parade and the "15th Five-Year Plan" are expected to further boost industry performance [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - There has been a net inflow of leveraged funds for five consecutive weeks, indicating optimistic market expectations regarding the recovery of industry demand [1] - The military ETF (512660) tracks the CSI Military Industry Index (399967), which selects listed companies involved in defense sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, and weaponry [1] - The index employs a weighted methodology to reflect the overall performance of Chinese military-themed listed companies [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" for the defense and military industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses a bullish outlook for the military industry, driven by upcoming catalysts such as the September 3 military parade and the 14th Five-Year Plan, despite a slight decrease in the index's growth this week [2][44]. - The military industry is expected to experience strong demand recovery by 2025, supported by both domestic and international growth opportunities [2][44]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the military index is 74.21, indicating a high configuration value at this time, especially with the anticipated strong recovery in the industry [2][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The military index rose by 0.15% from August 11 to August 15, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.37% [11][16]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has increased by 21.74%, significantly outperforming the broader market [18]. - The aerospace sector showed better performance this week, while the aviation sector faced declines [22][19]. 2. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on three main lines of investment: domestic trade, foreign trade, and emerging industries [3][44]. - Specific companies to watch in domestic trade include Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, and others in various segments such as aircraft and engines [3][4][45]. - In foreign trade, companies like Guangdong Hongda and Guorui Technology are highlighted [4][45]. - Emerging industries include nuclear fusion and commercial aerospace, with companies like Guoguang Electric and Aerospace Power being noted [10][46]. 3. Funding and Valuation - There has been a slight decrease in passive fund sizes and shares, with a net outflow of 775 million yuan this week, but leveraged funds have seen significant inflows [28][34]. - The military sector's valuation remains high, with a five-year P/E ratio of 74.21, indicating continued attractiveness for investment [35][44]. - Most companies in the military sector are expected to have valuations below 30 times by 2026, suggesting potential for performance improvement [39][44].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [73]. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the military industry, emphasizing that despite recent adjustments, the sector remains attractive for investment. The military industry index has shown resilience, with a slight increase of 0.08% during the week of July 28 to August 1, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.75%, resulting in an outperformance of 1.83 percentage points [3][43]. - The report highlights a strong demand recovery expected in 2025, driven by various catalysts such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "Centenary of the Army" goals, which are anticipated to significantly boost both domestic and foreign demand [4][43]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the military industry index is 72.21, placing it in the 98.04 percentile, suggesting a high configuration value at this time [4][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The military industry index ranked 6th among 31 primary industries, with a year-to-date increase of 14.76% compared to a 3.05% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, resulting in an outperformance of 11.71 percentage points [9][16]. - The information technology sector within the military industry showed the best performance, with significant gains from stocks like New Light Optoelectronics and Northern Long Dragon, which rose by 29.1% and 21.69% respectively [20][22]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four main lines of investment: 1. Domestic Trade: Companies such as Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, and others in various segments like land equipment and aircraft [4][43]. 2. Foreign Trade: Companies like Guangdong Hongda and Guorui Technology [5][45]. 3. Emerging Industries: Companies involved in nuclear fusion and commercial aerospace, including Guoguang Electric and Aerospace Power [6][46]. 3. Funding and Valuation - Passive fund inflows into military ETFs have increased, with a net inflow of 640 million yuan during the week, indicating a positive trend in funding for the sector [27][31]. - The report notes that the military sector's valuation remains attractive, with most companies expected to have valuations below 30 times earnings by 2026, supporting a favorable long-term outlook [39][34].

Core Viewpoint - The military industry ETF (512660) has seen significant inflows, with over 1.2 billion yuan net inflow in the last 10 trading days and a year-to-date share growth of over 50%, currently reaching a scale of over 16.7 billion yuan, ranking first among its peers [1] Group 1 - The military industry ETF is expected to benefit from multiple catalysts including the "14th Five-Year Plan" push, the "Centenary of the Army" goal, domestic substitution, and rapid military trade development, leading to substantial growth in both domestic and foreign demand [1] - The ETF tracks the CSI Military Index, which comprehensively covers opportunities across various sectors including land, sea, air, and space, and has shown superior defensive and offensive characteristics compared to similar indices [1] - The CSI Military Index has demonstrated strong defensive performance, with the smallest decline during weak market conditions in 2018, 2022, and 2023, particularly notable in 2023 [1] Group 2 - In 2024, the CSI Military Index is expected to rank first in terms of returns among its peers, and it has shown significant gains during bull markets in 2019 and 2020, closely following military leaders and the CSI Defense Index [1]

Core Viewpoint - The military industry is experiencing a phase of adjustment, with significant capital inflow into the aerospace sector, particularly the Aerospace ETF (159227), which has seen continuous net inflow for 13 trading days, totaling over 300 million yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 14, the three major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.11% and 0.45%, respectively [1]. - The Aerospace ETF (159227) closed at 1.100 yuan with a trading volume of 72.94 million yuan, and its latest scale reached 570 million yuan, ranking first among popular ETFs [1]. Group 2: Key Developments - The China Eastern Military Industry team publicly showcased the maiden flight of the "Jiutian" drone carrier, which has a wingspan of 25 meters and a payload of 6 tons, capable of carrying 300 "Xuanbird" suicide drones for saturation attacks [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Defense announced the first Youth Leaders Conference of the China-Africa Peace and Security Forum, set to take place in Nanjing from July 15 to 19, with participation from nearly 90 mid-level military officers from over 40 African countries [2]. - The U.S. Secretary of Defense signed a memorandum on July 10 to comprehensively reform the military drone strategy, aiming for the U.S. to dominate the small drone sector by 2027 [2]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Huafu Securities indicated that from 2025 to 2027, driven by multiple catalysts such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "Centenary Goals of the Army," both domestic and foreign demand in the military industry are expected to grow significantly, making military development a key focus for the future [3]. Group 4: Related Products - The Aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the National Aerospace Index, which has a strong military attribute, with the military industry accounting for 98.2% of its composition, and aerospace equipment holding a weight of 66.5%, significantly higher than other military indices [4].