行 华福证券 国防军工 2025 年 11 月 24 日 业 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：静待十五五规划 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 11 月 18 日，解放军报报道，日前，海军福建舰航母编队组织海上多 科目训练，这是福建舰入列后首次海上实兵训练。歼-35、歼-15T、歼-15DT、 空警-600 等多型舰载机在福建舰陆续完成了多架次弹射起飞和着舰训练， 有效检验了福建舰电磁弹射、回收和甲板作业能力。 2）隐身材料：【佳驰科技】、【华秦科技】； 3）深海：【西部材料】、【中国海防】； 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 11 月 17 日，2025 迪拜国际航空展开幕,，中航工业集团组织中航技以 "全面迈向高端新时代"为主题参展。本届航展，航空工业集团"翼龙" -X、"20 家族"等高端航空装备悉数亮相，进一步开拓国际市场。其中， 阿联酋空军"骑士"表演队换装 L15 高级教练机后带来精彩全球首秀，新 型高商载货运无人机概念方案首次面向全球市场进行展出，"翼龙"-X 无 人机首次以静展形式亮相境外航展。展区展示了由战斗机、直升机、教练 机、运输机、无人机组成的谱 ...

11月17日至21日，A股市场震荡调整，成交规模维持在1.7万亿元上方。指数方面，上证指数一周下跌3.9%，最新报3834.89点；深证成指累计下跌5.13%， 创业板指累计下跌6.15%。北证50指数一周累计下跌9.04%，为一周跌幅最高的A股主要指数。 本周A股赚钱效应不佳 11月22日，数据宝发布调查报告《下周能否止跌？》，非常感谢各位粉丝的热投票与支持。 从仓位变化来看，本周26%的受访者进行了"加仓"，18%的受访者进行了"减仓"，11%的受访者进行了"清仓"；其余45%持仓不动。 从仓位管理来看，参与调查的投资者仓位整体向下。"满仓加融资""50%—100%"所占比例分别环比下降1个百分点、7个百分点，最新分别为8%、 28%；"50%以下""空仓"所占比例分别环比上升6个百分点、3个百分点，最新分别为18%、7%；"满仓"占比不变，保持为39%。 | 名称 | 年初至今 | 本周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | | (%) | (%) | | 沪深300 | 13.18 | -3.77 | | 上证指数 | 14.41 | -3.90 | | 深证成指 | 20.39 | ...

华福证券指出，"十五五"时期国防和军队现代化建设投入体量大、精准化要求高，必须走高效益、 低成本、可持续发展路子。要加快先进战斗力建设，推进新域新质作战力量规模化、实战化、体系化发 展，加强传统作战力量升级改造，统筹网络信息体系建设运用，加快无人智能作战力量及反制能力建 设，加紧国防科技创新和先进技术转化。同时要巩固提高一体化国家战略体系和能力，推动新质生产力 同新质战斗力高效融合、双向拉动，建设先进国防科技工业体系，优化国防科技工业布局。在26-27年 【十五五计划将近】＋【建军百年目标】+【军贸快速发展】等多重催化下，国防军工行业内外需均将 实现大幅增长。当前军工板块估值虽处于历史较高分位，但考虑到2026年行业基本面强恢复预期，仍具 备较高配置意义。 军工ETF（512660）跟踪的是中证军工指数（399967），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及航空、航 天、船舶、兵器及军事电子等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映中国军工行业上市公司证券的 整体表现。指数成分股呈现中小盘风格，主要聚焦于航空装备与军工电子行业。 注：数据来源wind、截至2025.11.19，军工ETF规模为144.61亿，在同类12只产 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality advancement in national defense and military modernization, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the goal of achieving a strong military by 2027 [43][44] - It highlights the need for efficient resource utilization and cost control in military modernization efforts, advocating for a sustainable development approach [4][45] - The report anticipates significant growth in both domestic and international demand for military products and services, driven by multiple catalysts including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and rapid military trade development [10][47] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The military industry is rated as "Outperform the Market," indicating expected returns above the market benchmark [5] Key Points from the Report - The report outlines the fundamental requirements for military modernization during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on advanced combat capabilities and military governance modernization [43][44] - It stresses the integration of new production capabilities with combat capabilities, enhancing the national strategic system and capabilities [44] - The report also discusses the necessity of policy support to address challenges in planning and cross-domain collaboration [4][45] Market Performance - The military industry index decreased by 2.15% from November 10 to November 14, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.08% [12][18] - The military index has increased by 13.35% since 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 17.62%, indicating a relative underperformance of 4.27% [20] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include Tian'ao Electronics and Shanghai HuGong, which saw increases of 12.63% and 12.35% respectively, while stocks like Chunzong Technology and Lais Information experienced declines of 17.43% and 15.39% [24][26] Fund Flows and Valuation - The report notes a decrease in passive fund sizes but an increase in fund shares, with a net inflow of 4.57 billion yuan into military ETFs during the week [28] - As of November 14, the military sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 68.88, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels, but with expectations of recovery in 2026 [46][37]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes optimism regarding the domestic and overseas new productive forces in the military industry, particularly with the recent commissioning of China's first electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier, which showcases advanced technology [3][39] - The report anticipates a favorable development in the military industry fundamentals from Q4 2025 to 2026, driven by the nearing 14th Five-Year Plan and the centenary goals of the military [3][39] - The military industry is expected to experience significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand due to multiple catalysts, including the 14th Five-Year Plan and rapid military trade development [4][40] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - From November 3 to November 7, the Shenwan Military Industry Index (801740) decreased by 0.47%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.82%, resulting in an underperformance of -1.29 percentage points [10][15] - Since 2025, the Shenwan Military Industry Index has risen by 15.84%, compared to an 18.9% increase in the CSI 300 Index, leading to a relative underperformance of -3.07 percentage points [17] 2. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on various sectors within the military industry, including: 1. Land Equipment: Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, Ligong Navigation, Baiao Intelligent, Great Wall Military Industry, and China Ordnance Arrow 2. Stealth Materials: Jiach Technology, Huaqin Technology 3. Deep Sea: Western Materials, China Marine Defense 4. Engines: Hangyu Technology, Hangya Technology, Tunang Co. 5. Unmanned & Anti-Unmanned: Zongheng Co., Aerospace Rainbow, Ruike Laser, Sichuang Electronics, and Xinjing Steel 6. AI Intelligence: Xingtuxinke, Aerospace Electronics 7. Aircraft: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft 8. Nuclear Fusion: Guoguang Electric, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Hezhuan Intelligent, Xuguang Electronics, Yongding Co., Jingye Intelligent, Weiteng Electric, Xinfengguang, Aike Saibo, Paike New Materials, Wangzi New Materials, and Hongwei Technology [4][40][42] 3. Valuation and Funding - As of November 7, the current TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Military Industry Index is 70.35, with a percentile rank of 92.55%, indicating a high configuration significance at this time [4][31] - The report notes a decrease in passive fund sizes and shares, with a net outflow of 617 million yuan from military ETFs, although the trend of net outflows has weakened [25][30] - The report anticipates a recovery in passive fund inflows due to strong demand recovery expectations in the military industry for 2025-2026 [30]

Group 1 - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session will focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its implications for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The session is scheduled to take place from October 20 to 23 in Beijing, where the draft proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan will be reviewed [1] - The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to build on the achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on the 100th anniversary of the military in 2027 and supporting the modernization of national defense and the military by 2035 [1] Group 2 - The military industry ETF (512660) tracks the CSI Military Industry Index (399967), which selects listed companies in sectors such as aviation, aerospace, shipbuilding, weaponry, and military electronics [1] - The index aims to reflect the overall performance of publicly traded companies in China's military industry, with a focus on small and mid-cap stocks primarily in the aviation equipment and military electronics sectors [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][55]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the expectation of a favorable development in the military industry from Q4 2025 to 2026, driven by the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan and the centenary goal of the military [4][39]. - The military industry is anticipated to experience significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand due to multiple catalysts, including the 14th Five-Year Plan and rapid military trade development [4][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The military index (801740) fell by 4.61% from October 9 to October 17, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 2.73%, resulting in an underperformance of 1.88 percentage points [10][15]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has increased by 13.28%, compared to a 14.72% rise in the CSI 300 index, leading to a relative underperformance of 1.44 percentage points [17]. 2. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include: 1. Land Equipment: Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, LIGONG Navigation, Bai'ao Intelligent, Great Wall Military, and China Ordnance Red Arrow 2. Stealth Materials: Jiachitech and Huaqin Technology 3. Deep Sea: Western Materials and China Marine Defense 4. Engines: Hangyu Technology, Hangya Technology, and Tunan Co. 5. Drones & Anti-drone: Zongheng Co., Aerospace Rainbow, Ruike Laser, Sichuang Electronics, and Xinjinggang 6. AI Intelligence: Xingtuxinke and Aerospace Electronics 7. Aircraft: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft 8. Nuclear Fusion: Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Hezhuan Intelligent, Guoguang Electric, Jingye Intelligent, Weiteng Electric, Xinfengguang, Xuguang Electronics, Aike Saibo, Parker New Materials, Yongding Co., Wangzi New Materials, and Hongwei Technology [4][40]. 3. Fund and Valuation Analysis - As of October 17, the military index's TTM P/E ratio is 73.81, with a percentile rank of 96.47%, indicating a high configuration value given the strong recovery expectations for 2025 [4][39][30]. - The report notes a decrease in the scale of passive funds but an increase in fund shares, with a net inflow of 1.391 billion yuan into military ETFs, suggesting continued confidence in the military sector [25][30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the rising demand and premium for military trade equipment, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan", "Centenary of the Army", and "indigenous and controllable domestic substitution", indicating a strong certainty in domestic growth for the military industry [1] - The military ETF (512660) covers the entire industry chain of land, sea, air, and space, demonstrating good elasticity and defensive attributes, making it an important tool for capturing industry allocation opportunities [1] - As of September 1, 2025, the military ETF has a scale of 15.864 billion, ranking first among 12 similar products, reflecting a strong market position [1] Group 2 - The index tracked by the military ETF is the China Securities Military Industry Index, which is compiled by the China Securities Index Company, selecting representative listed companies in the defense and military industry from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The index covers multiple sub-sectors of the national defense and military industry, exhibiting high industry concentration and distinct military characteristics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The defense and aerospace industry in China is expected to experience significant growth potential driven by multiple catalysts, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "100th Anniversary of the Army" [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Potential - The defense and aerospace sector is projected to see substantial growth in both domestic and international demand from 2025 to 2027 due to various stimulating factors [1] - The military industry sector has been on a continuous upward trend since the end of June 2025, although there has been a slight recent pullback [1] - Upcoming events such as the September 3 military parade and the "15th Five-Year Plan" are expected to further boost industry performance [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - There has been a net inflow of leveraged funds for five consecutive weeks, indicating optimistic market expectations regarding the recovery of industry demand [1] - The military ETF (512660) tracks the CSI Military Industry Index (399967), which selects listed companies involved in defense sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, and weaponry [1] - The index employs a weighted methodology to reflect the overall performance of Chinese military-themed listed companies [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations on August 21, with the defense and military industry showing resilience despite a minor pullback. The Aerospace ETF (159227) saw a decline of 0.49% with a transaction volume of 58.92 million yuan, maintaining its position as the top performer in its category. Key holdings such as Hitec Products, AVIC Chengfei, and others showed gains [1] - The military construction plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" is in a critical phase of capability integration delivery, with an expected acceleration in order demand leading up to 2025. The formulation and implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" will provide a clear development blueprint for the military industry over the next three to five years, enhancing growth certainty and industry prosperity [1] - Huafu Securities indicated that the military industry has strong domestic trade attributes, with significant growth expected from 2025 to 2027 due to multiple catalysts, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" tasks and the centenary goal of the military. This sector is less affected by tariffs and is considered a priority for future development amid current international circumstances [1] Group 2 - The Aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, with a high military industry representation of 97.86%, focusing on the aerospace sector. The index includes leading companies across the entire industry chain, aligning with the strategic direction of "integrated aerospace" [2] - From July 31, 2024, to July 31, 2025, the Guozheng Aerospace Index achieved a return of 37.28%, outperforming the CSI National Defense Index (33.06%), CSI Military Industry Index (30.4%), and Military Leaders Index (26.78%) [2]