华源证券最新研报观点认为，中国医药生物行业已基本完成新旧动能转换，创新药显著打开增长新曲 线。创新产业规模逐步扩大，恒瑞医药、翰森制药等传统药企完成创新转型，百利天恒等公司以全球首 创姿态崛起；出海能力持续提升，中国药企成为跨国药企重要的创新来源，医疗设备和供应链在全球市 场崭露头角。 Wind数据显示，四季度以来，多家创新药企业迎来内外资机构的密集调研。其中，百济神州获得88家 公募和外资机构调研；泽璟制药获得36家公募和外资机构调研；迈威生物和微芯生物也获得10家以上公 募和外资机构调研。 规模方面，截至2025年11月21日，港股创新药ETF最新规模达241.02亿元。从资金净流入方面来看，港 股创新药ETF近6天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得5657.52万元净流入，合计"吸金"1.70亿元。 有机构认为，中国医药产业已迈入"创新兑现+全球布局"的关键阶段，人口与内需基数、全产业链制造 能力构成核心支撑，企业积极探索多元化的出海路径。展望2026年，可以重点关注创新商业化、全球化 突破、政策优化带来的新增量及行业并购整合的机遇。中信建投指出，医保谈判稳步推进，创新产品有 望惠及更多患者，2025年新 ...

11月24日早盘，港股医药板块走强，三生制药涨超7%，恒瑞医药、信达生物等涨超4%。 受盘面提振，热门ETF中，港股创新药ETF（159567）截至9:51涨约2.2%，成交额超3亿元。Wind数据 显示，本月以来截至上周五，该产品份额增长了11.05亿份，目前为99.22亿份，即将突破百亿大关。 资料显示，港股创新药ETF（159567）跟踪国证港股通创新药指数，旨在反映港股通范围内创新药领域 上市公司的运行特征。场外投资者还可通过港股创新药ETF联接基金（A类：023929，C类：023930） 一键布局港股创新药板块上行机遇。 有机构认为，中国医药产业已迈入"创新兑现+全球布局"的关键阶段，人口与内需基数、全产业链制造 能力构成核心支撑，企业积极探索多元化的出海路径。展望2026年，可以重点关注创新商业化、全球化 突破、政策优化带来的新增量及行业并购整合的机遇。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug sector is at a critical turning point, transitioning from a "research investment phase" to a "commercial harvest phase," indicating significant long-term growth potential [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The Dongcai Innovative Drug Index has increased by over 32% year-to-date as of November 20 [1] - The sector experienced a strong rally in the first half of the year, followed by a notable decline [1] Group 2: Institutional Interest - Numerous innovative drug companies, including BeiGene, have attracted intensive research from both domestic and foreign institutions, signaling heightened market interest [1] - BeiGene was researched by 88 public and foreign institutions, while Zai Lab received attention from 36 institutions [1] Group 3: Growth Potential - The sales revenue of domestic innovative drugs is growing rapidly but currently accounts for only about 10% of the overall domestic pharmaceutical market, suggesting over three times potential growth [2] - The next three years are expected to see a significant commercial breakthrough for Chinese innovative drugs in overseas markets, positively impacting the performance of these companies [2] Group 4: R&D and Policy Support - Chinese innovative drug companies have significantly improved their R&D capabilities and gained international recognition, now ranking among the top tier globally in terms of R&D pipeline [2] - Continuous policy support and improvements in commercial insurance payment methods are anticipated to provide additional support for the innovative drug sector [2] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Chinese innovative drug industry is perceived to be entering a "historic" investment opportunity phase, with a clear logic chain from scientific breakthroughs to commercialization [3] - As the industry transitions to the "commercial harvest phase," the commercial value of the innovative drug sector is expected to continue to be released, enhancing its growth logic and investment value [3]

Group 1 - The innovative drug sector continues to rise, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index up by 3.7% and the CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index up by 1.1% as of 10:18 AM [1] - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) has attracted a total of 1.4 billion yuan in the past month, indicating strong investor interest in related products [1] - The introduction of a "commercial insurance innovative drug catalog" in the 2025 national medical insurance negotiations is expected to create new payment channels for high-priced innovative drugs, significantly improving cash flow for pharmaceutical companies [1] Group 2 - In the first ten months of 2025, the total value of outbound licensing transactions for Chinese innovative drugs exceeded 100 billion USD, highlighting the global competitiveness of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [1] - Major leading pharmaceutical companies are expected to report strong performance in their Q3 2025 results, indicating a shift from the "R&D investment phase" to the "commercialization harvest phase" [1] - The trend of innovative drugs going global is clear, with ongoing benefits from drug review reforms and supportive policies, marking the entry of the Chinese innovative drug industry into its 2.0 era [1] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index consists of leading companies in the Hong Kong innovative drug sector, being the first ETF-tracked index with a "purity" of 100% in innovative drugs [2] - The CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index focuses on leading companies in the A-share innovative drug sector, comprising no more than 50 companies primarily engaged in innovative drug R&D [2] - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) and the E Fund Innovative Drug ETF (516080) track the aforementioned indices, providing investors with convenient access to opportunities in the innovative drug industry [2]

Group 1 - The chairman of North Medical (000788), Xu Xiren, has been formally arrested for suspected criminal activities, with the company confirming that its control and operations remain stable despite the leadership change [1] - North Medical's revenue has declined, and the process of "de-BNU" has stalled, indicating a need for improved governance and a focus on core business to rebuild market confidence [1] Group 2 - Lai Kai Pharmaceutical has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Qilu Pharmaceutical for the commercialization of the breast cancer candidate drug LAE002 in China, with potential payments totaling up to 5.3 billion yuan and 20.45 billion yuan in milestone payments [2] - This partnership marks a significant step for Lai Kai Pharmaceutical in commercializing its first innovative drug product, establishing a foundation for future research and development [2] Group 3 - Andao Pharmaceutical has completed a C-round financing of over 400 million yuan, with investments from various institutions, focusing on the development of new drugs for kidney diseases, anemia, and cancer [3] - The funding will accelerate the company's pipeline development and is expected to fill gaps in the market, driving innovation in its specialized fields [3] Group 4 - Shengjian Medical (300888) plans to invest approximately 2 billion yuan to build a production base for all-cotton water-jet non-woven fabric, focusing on high-quality and large-scale production [4] - This investment aligns with trends in sustainable consumption and industrial upgrades, enhancing the company's product matrix and cost advantages for long-term growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Hutchison China MediTech (HCM) has lagged behind the overall market despite the significant rise in the Hong Kong healthcare sector, with its stock price showing only a 36.36% increase year-to-date compared to the sector's peak of 102.6% [1][2]. Market Performance - HCM's stock price has been volatile, particularly after the release of its mid-year report, which showed a revenue decline of 9.2% to $278 million, despite a significant profit increase due to the sale of non-core assets [2][3]. - Following the mid-year report, HCM's stock experienced a sharp decline of 15.99% in a single day, with trading volume reaching a record high of 70.29 million shares, indicating increased market panic and a shift in investor sentiment [3][5]. Investor Sentiment - The recent trading data indicates a shift in investor behavior, with significant net buying from certain brokers, while others have been net sellers, reflecting a divided market view on HCM's future prospects [6][7]. - The stock's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is currently at 5.64, significantly lower than the industry average of 28.32, suggesting potential for a technical rebound in the short term [6]. Sales Performance - HCM's core innovative drugs have seen substantial sales declines in the domestic market, with revenues for its main products dropping between 30% to 50% [2][8]. - In contrast, overseas sales for its key drug, Elunate (fuquintinib), have increased by 25% to $163 million, indicating stronger performance in international markets [9]. Pipeline and Future Prospects - HCM is focusing on its new drug candidate HMPL-A251, which has shown promising preclinical results and is expected to enter clinical development by the end of the year [10][11]. - The company is attempting to shift market attention towards its antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) research, which has garnered industry interest, although immediate stock price catalysts may be limited [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with innovative drugs, raw materials, and CXO/research upstream sectors performing well, while overall domestic demand remains under pressure [2][3] - In 2024, 453 pharmaceutical companies achieved revenue of CNY 2.46 trillion, a year-on-year decline of 0.55%, and a net profit of CNY 148.65 billion, down 8.8% [2][3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue reached CNY 1.80 trillion, a decrease of 2.9%, with net profit at CNY 143.7 billion, down 1.2% [2][3] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's performance is notably varied, with innovative drugs showing a positive trend, while traditional sectors face challenges [2][3] - The medical device sector showed a revenue of CNY 161.1 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.93%, although net profit decreased by 4.79% [3] Innovative Drugs - In Q1-Q3 2025, innovative drug companies reported revenue of CNY 16.144 billion, a growth of 4.24% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards profitability as core products enter a commercialization phase [2][3] Chemical Drugs - Chemical drug companies generated revenue of CNY 292.91 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, down 3.33%, with net profit declining by 1.67% [2][3] Medical Devices - The medical device sector's revenue in Q1-Q3 2025 was CNY 161.1 billion, a decline of 2.99%, with a net profit of CNY 250.36 billion, down 14.52% [3] Biological Products - Blood products revenue in 2024 was CNY 24.18 billion, down 1.4%, while net profit increased by 14.47% [3] Traditional Chinese Medicine - Traditional Chinese medicine companies reported revenue of CNY 252.84 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, a decrease of 3.46%, with net profit down 0.60% [3] Raw Materials - Raw materials achieved revenue of CNY 88.56 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, a decline of 4.64%, but net profit increased by 3.77% [3] Pharmaceutical Commerce - Pharmaceutical commerce companies reported revenue of CNY 777.67 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, a slight increase of 0.5%, with net profit rising by 4.7% [3] CXO & Research Services - The CXO and research service sector achieved revenue of CNY 78.58 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, with net profit growing by 58.07% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector shows mixed performance, with innovative drugs and CXO services performing well, while the medical device sector is expected to continue its recovery [4][5]. Group 1: Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector achieved revenue of 1,825.74 billion yuan (YOY -1.97%) and a net profit of 139.66 billion yuan (YOY -1.59%) [4]. - In Q3 2025, the sector generated revenue of 598.54 billion yuan (YOY +0.78%) and a net profit of 40.51 billion yuan (YOY +7.67%) [4]. - The gross profit margin for the pharmaceutical sector was 31.4% (YOY -1.4 percentage points), with a total gross profit of 573.45 billion yuan (YOY -6.1%) [4]. Group 2: Subsector Analysis - The chemical preparation sector saw a revenue decline of 0.82% in Q3 2025, but net profit increased by 5.05%, driven by strong performance from innovative drug companies [5]. - The medical device sector experienced significant revenue growth of 10.65% in Q3 2025, reflecting a recovery in domestic bidding processes [5]. - The CXO sub-sector showed robust performance with a revenue increase of 10.93% and a net profit increase of 47.90% in Q3 2025, indicating strong demand both domestically and internationally [5]. Group 3: Fund Holdings and Market Trends - In Q3 2025, the market value of pharmaceutical holdings in equity mutual funds was 11.93%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points from the previous quarter [6]. - The top rising stocks in terms of market value among heavy holdings included Rongchang Biotechnology and BeiGene, which rose 18 and 13 ranks respectively [6]. - The number of funds holding top stocks like China National Pharmaceutical Group and Yingke Medical increased significantly, indicating growing interest in these companies [6].

Core Viewpoint - Haichuang Pharmaceutical's first innovative drug, Deuteroenzalutamide soft capsule, reported a revenue of 10.18 million yuan for the quarter, a 22.65% decrease from the previous quarter, and a net loss of 37.29 million yuan, down 25.35% quarter-on-quarter but narrowed by 30% year-on-year [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was 10.18 million yuan, a significant drop from 13.16 million yuan in June, indicating a failure to maintain growth [4]. - The total profit for the period was -37.29 million yuan, with a basic earnings per share of -0.38 yuan [5][8]. - Cash flow from operating activities showed a net outflow of 32.28 million yuan, primarily due to employee payments and market promotion expenses [8]. Cost Structure - Sales expenses reached 15.19 million yuan, a 218.68% increase year-on-year, leading to a high expense ratio of 606.44% [6]. - Despite a decrease in R&D expenses, the overall cost structure remains burdensome, impacting profitability [6]. Market and Product Pipeline - The company has strategically adjusted its pipeline, halting further development of the HP501 project due to intense competition in the URAT1 target market [10][11]. - The ongoing clinical trial for HP515 is expected to face significant market challenges, similar to those encountered by the abandoned HP501 project [11]. - The competitive landscape for Deuteroenzalutamide is intense, with the prostate cancer treatment market in China valued at 8.1 billion yuan in 2022, dominated by other established drugs [12][13]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that Haichuang Pharmaceutical may not achieve profitability until 2027, with a consensus net loss forecast of 219 million yuan for 2025 [13].

Core Viewpoint - After a significant rise in the innovative drug sector, Hong Kong-listed B-share companies have become the main targets for reduction by pharmaceutical fund managers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The innovative drug sector has transitioned from a thematic investment approach to a focus on commercial growth, with fund managers increasingly cashing out on B-share companies and early-stage innovative drug firms [2][10]. - As of October 26, the best-performing innovative drug-themed fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 123%, but there are concerns about potential drawdown risks, particularly among small-cap stocks that are not yet commercialized [4][11]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Fund managers are now prioritizing companies with established commercial capabilities, leading to a reduction in holdings of B-share companies that lack revenue and profit anchors [6][8]. - The shift in focus is evident as fund managers like Zhou Sicong have reduced positions in companies like Kelong Botai Bio-B, which has seen significant stock price declines [8][9]. Group 3: Risk Factors - The innovative drug industry is characterized by high investment, long development cycles, and significant risks, with an average drug requiring over 10 years and more than $1 billion in funding, yet having a clinical success rate of less than 15% [4][5]. - B-share companies, often lacking substantial revenue, are particularly vulnerable to market sentiment, leading to increased volatility and performance risks for funds heavily invested in them [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The innovative drug sector is expected to enter a phase of stock selection, focusing on companies with high certainty of success and established commercial viability [10][12]. - The narrative around stock selection is shifting from broad valuation reassessment to a more rigorous examination of fundamental performance, with future winners likely to be those that can effectively translate scientific innovation into commercial success [12].