中经记者 罗辑 北京报道 截至7月11日晚间，9家上市券商发布2025年上半年业绩预告，全员实现净利润大幅增长。随着上半年A 股活跃度回升，券商业绩也水涨船高。多位券商分析师认为，券商板块作为"牛市旗手"，在当前A股重 回活跃的背景下，业绩提升、预期加码，板块有望强势领涨。 业绩暴涨 具体来看，9家首批披露业绩预告的上市券商全员实现业绩预增。9家券商整体净利润或超90亿元，业绩 平均增幅在3倍左右。不过，不同券商之间净利润规模和增长幅度差异较大。 2025年中报券商业绩预告 证券简称 业绩预告摘要 红塔证券 净利润约65137.0800万—69629.3000万元,增长45%—55% 国信证券 净利润约36334.1400万—40424.7400万元,增长51%—68% 华林证券 净利润约27000万—35000万元,变动幅度为118.98%—183.86% 国盛金控 净利润约478000万—553000万元,变动幅度为52%—76% 华西证券 净利润约44500.00万—57500.00万元,变动幅度为1025.19%—1353.90% 哈投股份 净利润约38003.8200万元,增长约233.10% 财达 ...

Group 1 - The A-share leading brokerage ETF (512000) surged by 4.35%, reaching a new high for the year, and closed up 2.36% with a total trading volume of 1.952 billion yuan, an increase of 139.8% compared to the previous period [1] - The main funds significantly increased their positions in the securities sector, with a net inflow of 9.097 billion yuan, ranking second among all Shenwan secondary industries [3][4] - Three brokerage stocks have reported impressive mid-term earnings forecasts, indicating a strong growth momentum in the sector [6][7] Group 2 - Dongfang Wealth led the trading with a total transaction amount of 26.314 billion yuan, attracting a net inflow of 2.975 billion yuan, making it the top stock in both capital absorption and trading volume in the A-share market [2][3] - The expected net profit for Hongta Securities in the first half of the year is between 651 million yuan and 696 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 55% [6] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with expectations for continued high growth in the performance of listed brokerages due to the recovery of capital market trading activity and the resumption of IPOs [7]

Core Viewpoint - The securities sector is experiencing a strong rally, driven by favorable policies and robust trading activity, with a focus on leading securities firms and ETFs as investment opportunities [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 1%, surpassing 3530 points, with securities stocks showing significant strength [1]. - The Securities ETF leader (560090) surged over 3% in early trading, indicating strong market interest [1]. - Major component stocks of the Securities ETF, such as Zhongyin Securities and Zhongyuan Securities, reached their daily limit, while Guosheng Jinkong and Guolian Minsheng rose over 6% [3]. Group 2: Company Earnings - Red Tower Securities projected a 45%-55% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, while Guosheng Jinkong expected a staggering growth of 236.85%-394.05% in the same period [5]. - Guosheng Jinkong attributed its performance to improvements in brokerage and investment banking businesses, alongside enhanced risk management [5]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The brokerage sector is expected to maintain high profitability in the second half of the year, supported by active trading, improved bond markets, and a favorable IPO environment [6]. - Long-term trends indicate a shift towards higher industry concentration and the emergence of leading brokerages with competitive advantages [6]. - The brokerage sector's valuation remains low, with a price-to-book ratio of only 1.47, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [7]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - Recent mergers and acquisitions in the brokerage sector, such as the merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, are expected to enhance operational synergies and scale [7]. - The ongoing trend of mergers, including "Xibu + Guorong" and "Guoxin + Wanhua," is anticipated to further boost the sector's valuation [7]. Group 5: Investment Tools - The Securities ETF leader (560090) tracks the CSI All-Share Securities Company Index, providing a direct and efficient way to invest in the securities sector [9]. - For investors without a securities account, linked funds (A class: 501047; C class: 501048) are available for investment [9].

Group 1 - The brokerage sector experienced a significant surge on July 11, with notable stocks like Zhongyin Securities and Hatou Shares hitting their daily limits [1] - Zhongyin Securities rose by 10.04% to a price of 13.04, while Hatou Shares increased by 10.00% to 6.82 [2] - The A-share leading brokerage ETF (512000) opened high and rose by 2.8%, with a trading volume nearing 600 million yuan, indicating active market participation [2] Group 2 - Analysts from Changcheng Securities noted that major domestic and international events are expected to converge after July, which could be a key factor for further market strength [3] - Minsheng Securities projected that by Q2 2025, external trade disruptions will gradually diminish, leading to a rebound in capital markets and increased trading activity [4] - Kaisheng Securities highlighted a significant year-on-year increase in new account openings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in June, suggesting a positive outlook for brokerage performance [4] Group 3 - The brokerage ETF (512000) passively tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, encompassing 49 listed brokerage stocks, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages [4] - The ETF serves as an efficient investment tool, balancing exposure to both leading brokerages and smaller firms with high growth potential [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hongta Securities is the first listed brokerage to pre-disclose its operating data for the first half of 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 651 million to 696 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 55% [2][5]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - Hongta Securities anticipates a net profit of 651 million to 696 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 202 million to 247 million yuan compared to the same period last year [5]. - The company expects a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses to be between 634 million and 679 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40% to 50% [5]. - The improvement in performance is attributed to the company's focus on differentiated and specialized development, enhancing asset allocation effectiveness, and optimizing its asset-liability structure [5]. Group 2: Market Context - The brokerage sector has seen increased activity since June, with Hongta Securities' stock rising by 6.33% on July 10, while the Wind brokerage index increased by 1.21% [3]. - The overall brokerage sector is expected to maintain growth momentum in the first half of 2025, supported by favorable macroeconomic policies and increased trading volumes [7][10]. - The average daily trading volume in the first half of 2025 is projected to grow by 61% year-on-year to 1.39 trillion yuan, with financing scale increasing by 26.8% [7]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The brokerage sector is characterized as a "bull market barometer," indicating a potential increase in market risk appetite [12]. - Analysts suggest that the current technical patterns of brokerage ETFs and individual stocks resemble those seen before the 2014 bull market [13]. - The sector's valuation is significantly below historical averages, with leading brokerages like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities showing low price-to-book ratios while experiencing high profit growth [14].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 2025-1-1总市值 | 2025-6-30总市值 | 赠瑞(亿元) | 排名变动 | 上丰年漆跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | (亿元) | | | | | HS OEOOO9 | 中倡证券 | 4076.89 | 50'9666 | -140.84 | 0 | -5.31 | | 300059.SZ | 东方财富 | 4075.83 | 3655.47 | -420.35 | 0 | -10.15 | | 601211.SH | 国家海道 | 1544.81 | 3108.98 | 1564.17 | 2 | 2.73 | | 601066.SH | 中信建投 | 1787.31 | 1682.96 | -104.35 | -1 | -6.60 | | 601688.SH | 华专证券 | 1494.38 | 1550.86 | 56.48 | 1 | 1.25 | | 601881.5H | 中国银河 ...

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融/ 2025 年 07 月 05 日 2Q25E 业绩同比双位数高增，环比 回正 证券Ⅱ 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 金黎丹 (8621)23297818× jinld@swsresearch.com 看好 ——证券行业 2Q25E 业绩前瞻 本期投资提示：我们预计券商板块 2Q25E 净利润在低基数下延续同比双位数增长，1Q25 市场回 暖背景下环比增速回正。我们预计 2Q25 券商板块实现归母净利润 436 亿元/yoy+26%/qoq+1%。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ ⚫ 投资业务：股债市场回暖，自营亮眼表现延续。股票市场：4 月初，权益市场受中美关税干扰而阶 段性触底，在"国家队"托底、央国企率领回购、增持等稳市举措下市场持续回升，2Q25 沪深 300 指数+1.25%（VS ...

本报记者 于宏 近期，券商密集披露最新回购进展。例如，7月2日晚间，东方证券发布公告称，自5月6日公司披露回购 方案以来，截至6月30日，公司已通过集中竞价交易方式累计回购A股股份2670.32万股，占公司总股本 的比例为0.31%，已支付的总金额为2.5亿元（不含交易费用，下同）。 7月1日，国泰海通、中泰证券、国金证券也纷纷披露股份回购情况。其中，截至6月30日，国泰海通已 通过集中竞价交易方式累计回购A股股份5922.44万股，占公司总股本的比例为0.34%，已支付的总金额 为10.51亿元；中泰证券已通过集中竞价交易方式累计回购股份3350.35万股，占公司总股本的比例为 0.48%，已支付的总金额为2.13亿元；国金证券已通过集中竞价交易方式累计回购股份719.46万股，占 公司总股本的比例为0.19%，已支付的总金额为5946.68万元。 除上述4家券商外，实施回购的券商还包括财通证券、华安证券、西部证券，回购股份数量分别为 4074.2万股、1751.72万股、614.79万股，回购金额分别为3亿元、1.08亿元、5009.6万元。 同时，还有部分券商已公布回购方案。例如，5月9日，红塔证券发布 ...

长江大金融-政策空间和配置线索 20250630 摘要 6 月售均价单月增长 12.9%，但整体金额仍下滑。重点 20 城二手房成 交同比下降约 4 个百分点，市场持续承压。 政策方面，市场对政策空间存在分歧。若 7 月初无政策出台，三季度压 力或加大，预计 9 月出台政策概率较高，但常规产业政策空间有限。 超常规政策如结构性货币或财政工具（降息、补贴、提高公积金额度） 值得期待，以提升居民购房能力。大规模城中村收储也是潜在手段。 开发类个股位置较低，可适度左侧配置等待交易窗口。长期关注华润置 地、滨江等具备稳定现金流或潜在高股息的商业地产和物管公司。 券商板块受益于市场热度回升和交投活跃度修复，头部券商通过战略配 置稳定 ROE，下半年仍是配置 AH 优质头部券商的良好时机。 银行板块近期调整是机构交易行为导致的情绪波动，但基本面稳固，息 差边际企稳，资产质量稳定，看好港股大行和招商银行等高股息红利个 股。 招商银行股息率在回调后重回 4.5%左右，红利价值突出，无再融资计 划，股息含金量高。头部城商行如杭州银行、江苏银行等增长优异，推 荐关注。 Q&A 如何理解当前产业政策的空间？ 2025 年上半年房地 ...

申万宏源研报指出，中资券商涉足虚拟资产交易，有助于拓展国际业务版图，开辟新的业绩增长点，看 好券商板块未来的成长性。继国泰君安国际成为首家可提供全方位虚拟资产相关交易服务的中资券商， 其服务范围延伸至提供虚拟资产交易服务以及在交易过程中提供意见等，市场期待后续拥有香港1号牌 照的中资券商能够通过升级牌照，进一步拓展跨境业务范围。 国金证券认为，券商板块上半年业绩同比改善趋势明确，高盈利与低估值的显著错配，凸显出该板块的 配置性价比。建议投资者关注主动基金超低配的权重券商以及估值显著低于平均水平的头部优质券商。 同时，券商并购预期增强，可关注券商并购潜在标的机会。 【环球网财经综合报道】6月30日消息，多家机构发布最新研报，对券商板块未来发展表达了积极看 法，认为中资券商涉足虚拟资产交易、业绩改善以及政策利好等因素，将共同推动券商板块成长。 兴业证券通过长周期复盘发现，券商股的股价走势取决于市场周期和监管周期。当前阶段，市场风险偏 好明显抬升，具有强贝塔属性的券商板块将迎来景气度上行。在监管政策方面，目前更多聚焦于推动行 业的头部效应。在短期难以看到创新业务推动行业ROE系统性提升的背景下，市场交易的主线将聚焦 ...