| | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | shenyb@sywggh. com. cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | IL | | | | | 11 | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1373.0 | 1116.5 | 1195.0 | 1842. 0 | 1668.0 | 1736.5 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1403.0 | 1159. 5 | 1237.5 | 1887. 0 | 1719.0 | 1788. 5 | | EH | 煮跌 | -30. 0 | -43.0 | -42.5 | -45.0 | -51. 0 | -52.0 | | स्त | 廉政幅 | -2.14% | -3. 71% | -3. 43% | -2. 38% | -2. 97% | -2. 91% | | 10 | 成交重 | ...

20260128申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | shenyb@sywggh. com. cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | IL | | | | | 11 | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1373.0 | 1116.5 | 1195.0 | 1842. 0 | 1668.0 | 1736.5 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1403.0 | 1159. 5 | 1237.5 | 1887. 0 | 1719.0 | 1788. 5 | | EH | 煮跌 | -30. 0 | -43.0 | -42.5 | -45.0 | -51. 0 | -52.0 | | स्त | 廉政幅 | -2.14% | -3. 71% | -3. 43% | -2. 38% | -2. 9 ...

每经AI快讯，1月27日，国内双焦期货走低：焦煤期货主力合约跌2.95%，报1117元/吨；焦炭期货主力 合约跌2.24%，报1677元/吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. On the 31st, leading steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places lowered the tender price of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the fourth round of coke price cut was implemented at 0:00 on the 1st. Recently, the rise of the double - coking futures market has repaired market sentiment, with mixed results in online auctions, improved trading volume, and prices stabilizing and rebounding slightly. Looking ahead, the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. Coupled with the Spring Festival holiday of domestic coal mines, the overall supply pressure will be relieved. The demand side is expected to further improve during the downstream replenishment. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in both futures and spot prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. Steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the tender price of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the fourth round of coke price cut was implemented. The rise of the double - coking futures market repaired market sentiment, with improved trading volume and prices stabilizing and rebounding slightly. The impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved, and the supply pressure will be relieved. The demand side is expected to improve during downstream replenishment, and coking coal fundamentals will improve marginally with upward price momentum [2] 3.2 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - Coking coal total inventory was 2169.21 million tons, up 10.13 million tons or 0.47% week - on - week. Coke total inventory was 915.9 million tons, up 3.04 million tons or 0.33% week - on - week. Steel mills' daily average hot metal output was 229.5 million tons, up 2.07 million tons or 0.91% week - on - week. Independent coking enterprises' profit per ton of coke was - 45 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 28.57% week - on - week [4] 3.3 Futures Market Review - The report provides a 5 - day intraday chart of coking coal and coke's main contracts, with data from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [6] 3.4 Spot Market Review - The report shows charts of the average price of various coking coal types, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian main coking coal, the aggregated price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke, the first - grade arrival price of Hebei Iron and Steel's metallurgical coke, coking coal basis, and coke basis, with data from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [8][11][14] 3.5 Fundamental Data - The report presents charts of the daily average output of clean coal from mines and coal washing plants, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port, the inventory of coking coal in steel mills, independent coking enterprises and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily average output of coke from steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, the inventory of coke in steel mills, independent coking enterprises and ports, the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, the profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, with data from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [18][20][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Downstream steel mills' hot metal production is falling, leading to a slowdown in coal and coke demand. Steel mills' coke production has changed little, with a slight increase in daily average coke output, a decline in inventory, and a decrease in available days. The profitability of coking enterprises in the middle - stream has improved due to the weakening of coking coal prices, but production remains poor with a month - on - month decrease in coke output. Upstream mines have accelerated production, increasing coking coal output. Overall, coking profits have rebounded significantly month - on - month. The demand side has limited support, while the supply side has a marginal increase. After continuous adjustments of coking coal and coke, attention should be paid to the previous low support, and the futures prices are expected to show a volatile trend [1][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3057 | 4 | 0.13 | 6165476 | 2619983 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3270 | 14 | 0.43 | 1916372 | 1152598 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 785.5 | 13.0 | 1.68 | 1401911 | 477486 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1103.0 | - 89.0 | - 7.47 | 5157690 | 912017 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1614.5 | - 55.0 | - 3.29 | 114086 | 49628 | Yuan/ton | [3] 2. Market Review - Last week, coking coal and coke futures were weak. The mine start - up rate increased month - on - month, with continuous increases in coking coal production and supply. Downstream coking enterprises had high coking coal inventories and reduced purchasing willingness. Steel mills' hot metal was in a downward cycle, with limited demand support, leading to a weakening of futures prices [5]. - Downstream: Steel mills' hot metal production decreased, and the demand for coal and coke slowed down. The daily average coke output increased slightly, inventory declined, and available days decreased. The profitability rate of steel mills last week was 82.19%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 0.26 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, a decrease of 0.60 tons month - on - month and an increase of 0.48 tons year - on - year. The daily average coke output was 46.22 (month - on - month + 0.05) tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.23% (+0.09). Coke inventory was 622.34 (- 0.06) tons, and the available days of coke were 11.05 (- 0.01) days [5]. - Middle - stream: The profitability of coking enterprises improved due to the weakening of coking coal prices, but production remained poor with a month - on - month decrease in coke output. The national average profit per ton of coke was 19 (month - on - month + 53) Yuan/ton. Last week, the capacity utilization rate was 71.71% (+0.07%), and the daily average coke output was 62.67 (- 0.33) tons [6]. - Upstream: Mine production accelerated, and coking coal output increased. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 86.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. The daily average output of raw coal was 193.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons. Raw coal inventory was 434.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 tons. The daily average output of clean coal was 75.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 tons, and clean coal inventory was 185.9 tons [6]. 3. Industry News - In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, the first single - month increase of over 10% this year [15]. - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have been fully launched, targeting Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and several central enterprises, with an on - site inspection period of one month [15]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized promoting the improvement of foreign trade quality and efficiency, improving the high - standard logistics system, supporting the high - quality development of the manufacturing industry, and building a unified national market during his research in Hubei and Hunan [15]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the basis trend of coke, the futures and monthly spread trend of steel, the daily average output of independent coking plants and steel mills, capacity utilization rates, daily average hot metal output, various inventory charts, and ton - coke profit charts [9][10][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal market showed a strong trend, while the coke price remained stable. The second round of coke price increase was implemented, and the third round was initiated [2][4]. - On the supply side, production was affected by factors such as the completion of annual tasks in some mines, safety and environmental inspections, and the structural adjustment of imported Mongolian coal, resulting in a significant reduction in supply. On the demand side, macro - favorable factors pushed up the market price, and the steel inventory decreased significantly. The probability of the third round of coke price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton being implemented was relatively high [2]. - Overall, the domestic coking coal supply was subject to continuous disturbances, the import supplement was limited, and the spot transactions still showed more increases than decreases. The coking coal spot market was stable with a strong trend, and the coking coal fundamentals were still healthy. It was expected that the coking coal price would fluctuate in the short term [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal market was strong, and the coke price was stable. The second round of coke price increase by mainstream steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places was implemented on Monday, with a range of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The third round was initiated on Wednesday, and the steel mills had not responded yet [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 28, the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was released, aiming to optimize and upgrade traditional industries [6]. - The upgraded protocol of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 was officially signed, expanding cooperation in emerging fields and promoting regional trade facilitation [6]. - China's manufacturing PMI in October was 49%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5373.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry turned from loss to profit, with a profit of 97.34 billion yuan [6]. - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the inventory of iron ore in seven major ports in Australia and Brazil continued to decline [7]. - The "Action Plan for Quality Improvement and Upgrading of the Iron and Steel Industry in Henan Province" was issued, setting goals for the iron and steel industry in Henan Province by the end of 2025 and 2027 [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, production was affected by factors such as the completion of tasks in some mines, safety and environmental inspections, and the structural adjustment of imported Mongolian coal, resulting in a significant reduction in supply. Although the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal recovered this week, the main coking coal resources in the market were still in short supply [2]. - On the demand side, macro - favorable factors pushed up the market price, and the steel inventory decreased significantly. The coke initiated the third round of price increase, and the probability of the increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton being implemented was relatively high [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Due to frequent inspections in the main production areas and production reduction in some coal mines, the supply was difficult to increase [30]. - Demand: The coke production was basically flat month - on - month, the procurement enthusiasm of downstream and intermediate links remained, and the inventory of upstream coal mines had decreased to a low level in recent years [30]. - Investment Strategies: For single - side trading, it was mainly range - bound operation; for inter - period arbitrage, it was mainly to wait and see; for coking profit, it was also mainly to wait and see [2][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic coking coal prices continued to rise, with most increases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The coke market was stable with a slight upward trend. Multiple mainstream coke enterprises in various regions proposed a second round of price hikes for coke last week, with increases of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. However, due to strong resistance from downstream steel mills, the implementation time may be postponed to next Monday [2][4]. - Supply disruptions persist. In Wuhai, most open - pit mines have shut down due to slope management and resource restructuring, and stricter environmental inspections have restricted coal transportation, reducing regional supply. In addition, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lvliang and Linfen have shut down due to safety reasons, resulting in a significant decline in production [2]. - On the demand side, the average daily pig iron output this week was 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons compared to last week but still at a high level. On Friday, some steel mills planned to accept the second - round coke price increase, which will be implemented starting next week. There is also an expectation of further coke price increases next week, so the rigid demand for coking coal remains in the short term [2]. - Overall, supply disruptions continue, and coal prices are showing a strong performance. With limited coal production growth and persistent downstream purchasing enthusiasm, the coking coal fundamentals remain healthy, and the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Coking coal prices in the domestic market continued to rise, with most increases in the range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The coke market was stable with a slight upward trend. Multiple mainstream coke enterprises in various regions proposed a second - round price increase for coke last week, with increases of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Due to strong resistance from downstream steel mills, the implementation time may be postponed to next Monday [2][4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, aiming to achieve significant results in high - quality development, greatly improve the level of scientific and technological self - reliance, make new breakthroughs in all - around deepening of reforms, significantly enhance social civilization, continuously improve people's living standards, make new major progress in building a beautiful China, and strengthen national security [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". It stated that in the Yangtze River Economic Belt region, new or expanded iron and steel smelting projects outside compliant industrial parks are prohibited. In key areas, the total steel production capacity must not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas or between different key areas is prohibited. Provinces with clear steel production capacity control targets cannot accept steel production capacity transferred from other regions. The iron - making and steel - making capacity replacement ratios in each province should be no less than 1.5:1. For compliant production capacity newly obtained through mergers and acquisitions after June 1, 2021, the replacement ratios should be no less than 1.25:1 [6]. - In the first three quarters, China's GDP was 1.015036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The growth rates in the first, second, and third quarters were 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [7]. - From January to September, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37.1535 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In terms of different fields, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, with the growth rate dropping by 0.9 percentage points compared to January - August. Manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, with the growth rate dropping by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first eight months. Real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%, with the decline rate widening by 1.0 percentage point compared to January - August. The sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.9% [7]. - In September, China's automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, the production of new - energy vehicles was 1.58 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20.3%. From January to September, the total automobile production was 24.048 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: In Shanxi, more coal mines have reduced or stopped production due to factors such as working - face relocation, safety, and maintenance. In Inner Mongolia's Wuhai area, coal production has declined due to environmental protection, further tightening the supply from production areas [30]. - Demand side: Coke production continued to decline slightly, but downstream and intermediate sectors were actively purchasing. Coal mines had good order intake, with continuous inventory reduction at upstream coal mines and a large number of pre - sale orders [30]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Overall, supply disruptions continue, and coal prices are strong. With limited growth in coal production and persistent downstream purchasing enthusiasm in the short term, the coking coal fundamentals remain healthy, and the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [30]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range trading; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profit, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [2][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The domestic coking coal and coke markets rose and then stabilized this week. The first round of coke price increase was implemented on the 1st, with a rise of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged coke and 70 - 75 yuan/ton for top - charged coke. The second - round price increase may be pushed forward next week. The supply of coking coal is relatively stable, and downstream replenishment has slowed down. The market is expected to remain volatile in the future [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The domestic coking coal and coke markets rose and then stabilized. The first - round coke price increase was implemented on the 1st, with a rise of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged coke and 70 - 75 yuan/ton for top - charged coke. The second - round price increase may be pushed forward next week [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order [6]. - In the first eight months of 2025, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the SME export index was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [6]. - In September, the central bank's SLF net investment was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net investment was 30 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 8.83 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net investment was 39.02 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net investment was 30 billion yuan [6]. - In September, the sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises in China rebounded. According to the China Index Academy, the total sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises increased by 11.9% month - on - month. According to the CRIC Research Center, the sales operating amount of the top 100 real - estate enterprises reached 25.278 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 22.1% and a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [6]. - In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 1.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month increase of 16%. From January to September this year, the cumulative wholesale was 10.446 million, a year - on - year increase of 32% [6]. - In September, about 105,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the 58,000 sold in the same period last year [7]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 94.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 0.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 19.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 80.1% [7]. - As of October 10, the total inventory of imported iron ore in Chinese steel mills was 90.4619 million tons, a decrease of 9.906 million tons from the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 299,140 tons, an increase of 340 tons from the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, a decrease of 3.35 days from the previous period [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Some coal mines in Lvliang and Linfen were shut down for 2 - 8 days during the National Day holiday. Except for individual mines in the region for shutdown and maintenance, the impact time was relatively short, and the overall output was relatively stable with little fluctuation. The overall supply was balanced [2]. - Demand side: Coking and steel enterprises mainly consumed the inventory prepared before the festival. Due to the unclear price trend after the festival, the downstream replenishment willingness was cautious, and the overall raw - material inventory was maintained near the safety inventory line. The subsequent steel trend still needs to be observed [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Market outlook: During the holiday, coking enterprises mainly consumed in - plant inventory, and the procurement willingness decreased. The spot coal price was weakly stable. After the festival, coal - mine production will quickly return to normal, but the production level will still be restricted. Although downstream replenishment has slowed down, there is still rigid demand under high molten - iron production. The fundamentals are relatively healthy. The Sino - US tariff war has little impact on the fundamentals, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate repeatedly. It is expected that the future price will remain volatile [29]. - Investment strategy: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - delivery spread arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profit, mainly wait and see [2][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coking coal and coke is "Oscillation" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream procurement sentiment is cautious, and the coking coal and coke futures are oscillating. For coke, the supply is contracting marginally, and the demand is supported in stages but the price increase is under pressure. For coking coal, the supply elasticity is increasing, and the actual demand growth is relatively limited [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Spread - The coking coal main contract closed at 1,161.0 yuan/ton, and the coke main contract closed at 1,666.5 yuan/ton. The market sentiment is cautious, and the prices are mainly oscillating [1][5] Supply - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 81.9%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.6%. The daily output of raw coal is 183.9 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 10.3 million tons; the daily output of clean coal is 75.2 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.2 million tons. The daily output of coke is 112.5 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.12 million tons [1][21][28] Demand - The daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 241.54 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.27 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 8.46 million tons [1][35] Inventory - The total coke inventory is 967.2 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15.11 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 650.80 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12.6 million tons; the inventory of independent coking plants is 63.8 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.49 million tons; the inventory of 18 ports is 252.60 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4.00 million tons. The coking coal inventory is 3,632.4 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 131.9 million tons, with significant decreases in independent coking plants and ports [1][37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in the prices of coking coal and coke futures, indicating a bullish trend in the futures market [1] - Coking coal futures main contract rose by 3.38%, reaching 1270 yuan per ton [1] - Coke futures main contract increased by 1.99%, reaching 1769 yuan per ton [1]