Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a significant upward trend, particularly in polysilicon futures, which have shown a slight increase of 1.69% to 55,515.0 CNY/ton [1] Market Dynamics - Recent news regarding the establishment of a storage platform has resurfaced, alongside rumors of downstream warehouse receipts, which have positively impacted polysilicon prices [1] - As November approaches, some polysilicon production capacities are expected to undergo maintenance, potentially alleviating supply pressure after an increase in October production [1] Demand Analysis - Demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry remains weak, with continuous declines in component bidding prices leading to project delays, thereby reducing the demand for polysilicon [1] - Although N-type silicon materials maintain a certain premium due to the increasing penetration of TOPCon battery technology, the prices of standard materials are nearing cost levels, resulting in a narrowing overall industry gross margin [1] Market Outlook - In the short term, polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a wide fluctuation range, with the main contract projected to operate between 50,000 and 55,000 CNY/ton, and opportunities for low buying below 50,000 CNY/ton should be monitored [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable in the short term, with future trends dependent on demand improvement and effective implementation of production cut policies in Q4, leading to a substantial improvement in supply-demand dynamics [1] - The report anticipates a return to normal profitability for the industry by 2026, with leading companies benefiting from significant technological and cost advantages post-capacity clearance, recommending a focus on New Energy (01799) and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) [1] - Currently, there are about 10 polysilicon producers operating, with overall operating rates remaining relatively low and stable supply of silicon materials. In September, domestic polysilicon production is expected to be around 130,000 tons, which still exceeds downstream demand [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that polysilicon inventory remains above 400,000 tons, with a slight accumulation trend due to weak market demand and ongoing supply surplus. This is compounded by self-discipline in production cuts and strong policy expectations from the government [2] - The market is experiencing a divergence between producers' pricing and actual market transaction prices, driven by high inventory levels and reduced mainstream order volumes, leading to expectations of short-term price stability at high levels [2]

9月24日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，多晶硅期货呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约 大幅走高2.12%，报51235.0元/吨。 基本面来看，中财期货指出，9月份内蒙和青海地区存在减产预期，不过部分二三线企业出现复工动 作，9月份多晶硅产量环比或小幅下降。上周多晶硅周度产量环比小幅增加，整体仍维持高位。 需求端看，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，硅片价格小幅上行，部分企业提价，但下游观望浓厚。终端需 求疲软影响逐渐显现，从整体产业链来看，光伏产业链报价虽小幅上调，但市场供强需弱的格局没有改 变，终端成交压力较大，后续预计价格走弱，对多晶硅的需求形成一定抑制。 库存方面，近期多晶硅库存小幅波动，前期提货较多，库存有所下行。近期市场成交量有所减少，库存 变动放缓。 展望后市，东海期货表示，近期多晶硅、硅片、电池片现货价格涨价，政策预期强仍存，短期预计高位 震荡，关注现货价格支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Standardization Administration of China has released a draft for mandatory national standards on energy consumption limits for polysilicon products, which will significantly impact the polysilicon industry by enforcing stricter energy consumption standards and potentially leading to a reduction in effective production capacity by approximately 16.4% by the end of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: New Standards and Their Implications - The new energy consumption standards set limits for polysilicon production at ≤5 kgce/kg for Level 1, 5.5 kgce/kg for Level 2, and 6.4 kgce/kg for Level 3, corresponding to energy consumption of approximately 40.7 kWh/kg-Si, 48.8 kWh/kg-Si, and 52.1 kWh/kg-Si respectively [1]. - Existing polysilicon producers that do not meet the Level 3 standard will be required to rectify their operations, with non-compliance potentially leading to shutdowns [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the implementation of these standards may lead to the elimination of around 30% of polysilicon production capacity, depending on the actual execution of the policy and the technological upgrades undertaken by companies [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the announcement of the new standards, polysilicon prices have remained relatively stable, with recent trading around 53,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight weekly decline of 1.73% [2][3]. - The current market sentiment indicates that while there is a cautious optimism regarding the potential for price support due to the new standards, the immediate impact on supply and demand dynamics is expected to be limited [2][4]. - The production capacity of polysilicon companies has seen a recovery, with operational rates reaching 49% and monthly production around 130,000 tons, although there are concerns about potential declines in output during the dry season [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the polysilicon market may experience a period of stability in pricing, with significant improvements in the fundamental market conditions unlikely in the short term [4][5]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" sentiment in the market suggests that while there are expectations for capacity reductions, the actual realization of these changes will be gradual and systematic [3][4]. - The future trajectory of polysilicon prices will heavily depend on the timely implementation of supply-side policies and the clarity of the capacity reduction pathways [5].

Market Performance - The main contract price of polysilicon has significantly decreased, with the PS2511 closing at 48,690 CNY/ton, down 4.13%, with a trading volume of 502,410 lots and an open interest of 154,537 lots, reflecting a net increase of 17,059 lots [1] Future Outlook - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is expected to be between 45,000 to 52,000 CNY/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,900 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1] - Polysilicon production is projected to rise to 125,000 tons in August, but will enter a production limit and sales control phase in September. Downstream inventory replenishment is expected to buffer the pressure from declining terminal demand [1] - In July, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China was only 11 GW, indicating that domestic demand remains weak following the "rush installation" phase in the first half of the year [1] - Price rigidity is providing support for the market, but the policy-driven phase is entering a rational stage, with a decrease in risk appetite due to a policy vacuum and continuous increase in warehouse receipts, leading to wide fluctuations in the market [1] Risk Factors - The implementation of anti-involution policies has exceeded expectations, leading to a greater-than-expected reduction in polysilicon production [2] - As of August 27, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,880 lots, with a net increase of 10 lots compared to the previous trading day [2] - Data indicates that from January to July 2025, the cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity reached 1,109.6 GW, with a new installed capacity of 223.25 GW during the same period. The newly installed capacity in July was only 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, marking a new low for 2025 [2]

Core Insights - The price range for n-type polysilicon recycled materials is between 46,000 to 51,000 CNY per ton, with an average price of 47,900 CNY per ton, remaining stable week-on-week [1] - The average transaction price for n-type granular silicon has increased by 2.17% week-on-week to 47,000 CNY per ton [1] - The number of main signing enterprises in the polysilicon market has decreased to 3-4, indicating a reduction in market activity [1] Price Trends - The price of n-type recycled materials is stable, while n-type granular silicon prices have seen a slight increase [2] - The average price for n-type recycled materials is 47,900 CNY per ton, with no fluctuation [2] - The average price for n-type granular silicon is 47,000 CNY per ton, reflecting a 0.10 CNY increase [2] Market Dynamics - There has been a reduction in the signing volume of polysilicon, with some downstream companies extending their delivery periods to October to secure supply [1] - The market sentiment remains optimistic due to self-reduction in production by companies and increased stocking demand from downstream [1] - The total production of polysilicon in September is expected to be around 125,000 to 130,000 tons, down from the original plan of 140,000 tons [1] Industry Participants - The price statistics are based on data from nine polysilicon production companies, which account for 87% of domestic production [2][3] - The companies involved include Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, and Xinjiang Goin Technology Co., Ltd., among others [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the price of polysilicon is experiencing slight increases due to cost support, despite a slight decrease in transaction volume [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is reported to be between 45,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 47,400 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.42% [1] - The transaction volume of polysilicon has slightly decreased, but the number of signing companies has increased to six, with some companies maintaining prices while others raised prices by 1 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 2 - The number of polysilicon producers remains at nine, with an expected domestic production of 125,000 tons in August and a potential increase to around 140,000 tons in September [2] - To alleviate supply-demand pressure, some silicon material companies are planning coordinated production cuts, which may stabilize output in September [2] - The current market pricing is approaching a temporary high point, with prices expected to stabilize unless there are significant changes in industrial policy or terminal demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent surge in polysilicon futures prices, which reached a peak of 52,180 yuan, with a current price of 51,685 yuan, reflecting a 3.91% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guotou Anxin Futures expects polysilicon to maintain high-level fluctuations supported by 47,000 yuan/ton, driven by positive export policy expectations and improved downstream battery orders [2] - Guoxin Futures indicates that the short-term polysilicon price will primarily experience fluctuations due to increased weekly production and stable prices of downstream products, despite weak terminal component demand [3] - Zhongcai Futures anticipates that polysilicon prices will maintain a range-bound trend, with production expected to increase significantly in August due to higher operating rates at leading manufacturers [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows a significant increase in polysilicon production, with major companies ramping up operational rates, while downstream demand remains weak, leading to a cautious market sentiment towards high prices [3][4] - The overall market is characterized by an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, resulting in a buildup of inventory, which may impact new installation capacity due to rising upstream product prices [4]

Group 1 - The average transaction price of polysilicon n-type raw materials this week is 47,100 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.64% [1] - The average transaction price of n-type granular silicon is 44,300 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.68% [1] - The increase in polysilicon prices is primarily due to rising downstream silicon wafer prices and reduced inventory pressure for some wafer companies, leading to a slight price increase by polysilicon producers [1] Group 2 - The number of domestic polysilicon producers has returned to 10, with two companies partially resuming production, contributing to a slight output increase [2] - In July, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 107,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.7%, while the cumulative production from January to July was 704,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [2] - The expected production for August is around 125,000 tons, and if capacity integration occurs as planned, domestic polysilicon capacity may reduce to approximately 2.3 million tons per year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The polysilicon price increased due to rising coal and energy prices and the influence of the anti - involution conference, but it has deviated far from the fundamentals. If the downstream cannot absorb the high prices, it will form a negative feedback. With the possible addition of delivery brands by the exchange, the price may return to the mean. It is recommended not to chase the upward trend and suggests temporary observation or laying out put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 53,765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,685 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 172,564 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 6,923 lots. The price difference between August and September polysilicon is 115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 145 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 44,075 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,520 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 46,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the basis of polysilicon is - 4,080 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 975 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no month - on - month change. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all with no month - on - month change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,690 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 165 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 10,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 500 yuan/ton. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,113 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.01 US dollars/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.98 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6.7386 million kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 318,300 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 88,975,860 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 14,424,120 units; the monthly import volume is 11,095,900 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.31 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 26.63, with a month - on - month increase of 4.34 [2] 3.6 Industry News - At the Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Development (Datong) Seminar on July 24, Yan Dazhou, the director of the National Engineering Laboratory for Polysilicon Material Preparation Technology, stated that the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon has been continuously decreasing, and the revision of the comprehensive energy consumption standard per unit product of polysilicon is being promoted. The current first - level, second - level, and third - level comprehensive energy consumption per unit product of polysilicon are ≤7.5 kgce/kg, 8.5 kgce/kg, and 10.5 kgce/kg respectively, and the revised corresponding standards are expected to be ≤5 kgce/kg, 6 kgce/kg, and 7.5 kgce/kg to eliminate backward production capacity [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - From the supply side, the overall output of polysilicon enterprises increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some undergoing shutdown for maintenance, and the self - disciplined production reduction measures did not cause significant fluctuations in production capacity. From the demand side, affected by the anti - involution conference, production capacity declined significantly, but the price gradually recovered. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down to a certain range, and the marginal demand has weakened. As the profits of silicon wafer enterprises stabilize, the overall decline in production is expected to end, and battery cell enterprises also have production reduction plans [2] 3.8 Key Focus - No news today [2]