美联储理事米兰表示，美国经济现状需要大幅降息。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

美联储理事米兰：美国经济需要大幅降息。货币政策阻碍了经济发展。我们看到对2026年经济乐观的理 由。随着进展的推进，在利率方面快速行动的必要性降低。重要的是美联储不应在市场中占据过大比 重，这意味着应增加短期国库券比重，减少抵押贷款、中期票据和长期债券。 ...

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Core Viewpoint - Trump may replace the Federal Reserve Chairman by the end of 2025, despite Powell's term lasting until 2026, highlighting a conflict between Powell's resistance to significant rate cuts and Trump's economic goals [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve Leadership** - Trump is considering a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, potentially replacing Powell by the end of 2025 [1] - **Interest Rate Policy** - Powell's opposition to large rate cuts contrasts sharply with Trump's economic objectives, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction [1] - **Market Reactions** - The recent 25 basis point rate cut on September 25 and internal unrest within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have heightened tensions, suggesting possible market volatility of 1%-2%, similar to past Federal Reserve-related changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari warns that significant interest rate cuts could lead to inflation risks, emphasizing the potential for high inflation if economic growth exceeds its potential growth rate [1] Economic Growth and Inflation - Kashkari indicates that pushing economic growth beyond its potential can result in widespread price increases [1] - Current economic data shows signs of stagflation, with economic growth slowing while inflation persists [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari warns that significant interest rate cuts could lead to a period of high inflation in the economy [1] Group 1 - Kashkari's statement highlights the potential economic consequences of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The warning suggests that the balance between stimulating economic growth and controlling inflation is delicate [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan calls for a more aggressive interest rate cut strategy, emphasizing the need for a looser monetary environment due to current restrictive policies [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Policy** - Milan advocates for rapid adjustments if policies deviate from their intended path, suggesting that the current policy is more restrictive to growth than necessary [1] - **Divergence Among Officials** - He notes that his differences with other decision-makers are not as significant as perceived by the public, indicating a potential consensus on the need for policy adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicates that the economic fundamentals are quite strong, suggesting the possibility of significant interest rate cuts, but emphasizes the need for caution in such actions [1] Economic Fundamentals - Goolsbee highlights the strength of the current economic fundamentals, which could support a substantial reduction in interest rates [1] Caution in Policy Actions - Despite the potential for rate cuts, Goolsbee stresses the importance of exercising caution in implementing such measures to avoid negative repercussions [1]

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 70,728 kilograms, with an increase of 2,100 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - On September 30, gold futures opened at 866.88 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 880.00 yuan and a low of 865.08 yuan, with a current price of 874.40 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.48% [1] - The trading volume for the day is 226,548 contracts, while the open interest has decreased by 6,344 contracts to 256,876 contracts [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan is advocating for significant interest rate cuts, but Wall Street is skeptical of this approach [2] - Economists have reacted negatively to Milan's policy speech, indicating that the current benchmark interest rate set by the Federal Reserve is too high due to changes in the Trump administration's policies [2]

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Stephen Miran emphasizes the necessity for significant interest rate cuts to achieve a neutral rate that neither stimulates nor hinders economic growth [1][2] - Miran's stance is based on an assessment of the Trump administration's policies, which he believes have lowered the necessary interest rates to combat inflation, suggesting that the current benchmark rate is too high [1] - Miran has indicated that he may continue to vote against the Federal Reserve's decisions if they do not align with his views on the need for substantial rate cuts [1] Group 2 - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, with some officials warning about limited room for further easing in the context of high inflation [2] - Recent economic data, including a notable increase in Q2 economic growth and steady consumer spending, has contributed to policymakers' hesitance regarding immediate rate cuts [2] - Some economists acknowledge that while Miran's logic has merit, they question whether the neutral rate is as low as he claims, suggesting that if it were, the economy and financial markets would have already faced severe downturns [2]