9 月销售降幅收窄,优质房企逆势增长 顾铮 A0230125070004 quzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× quzheng@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 2025 年 9 月房企销售数据点评 事件: 9 月 30 日，克而瑞发布 2025 年 9 月房地产公司销售排行，保利单月销售排名第一，实现销售金 额 205 亿元，中海、华润单月销售额分别为 202、176 亿元，排名第二、三位，前三门槛从去年同 期 169 亿元提升至 176 亿元。9 月单月销售过百亿房企为 6 家，较 2024 年同期持平。 点评: 若研究院 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2025 年 10 月 08 日 9 月房企销售额单月同比-10%/累计同比-17%，分别较前值+3.4pct/+0.8pct，降幅收窄。根据 克而瑞数据，2025年９月，50 家房企单月销售金额 1,802 亿元，同比-10%，较前值+3.4pct; 销 售面 ...

在北京8月出台的楼市新政推动下，9月，北京楼市成交量显著回升，新房、二手房9月网签成交套数分别为3464套和15843套，环比8月增长约10%和17%。 这个国庆中秋假期，北京楼市交易情况如何？来看记者的探访。 在北京市通州区一个新房项目，购房人郭女士和先生正在看房。 记者：整个假期，今天是看了第几天房了？ 北京购房人郭女士：是第二天。我们原来有一套房子，现在准备要生孩子，想置换更大一点的。 郭女士正在考虑的这个项目在9月下旬开盘销售，恰好赶上北京楼市新政策的落地。据项目方介绍，到目前为止，首批推出的760多套房源已网签超过60%。 北京市通州区某商品房项目营销负责人解文广：到国庆节，我们基本上每天都是在120到150组的客户。我们的销售转化，每天会在八到十组认购客户之间的 成交量。 此外，"好房子"政策的落地也在推动新房项目销售。在北京通州另一个新房项目，记者看到，实景示范区直观展示了北京"好房子"政策带来的房屋功能和品 质的升级。 北京市通州区某商品房项目营销负责人张文言：我们持续有实景展示区的呈现，相当于是在全维度上面都可以给客户做到实景的呈现效果。"十一"假期，目 前每天到访50到60组客户，随着客户 ...

（央视财经《经济信息联播》）在北京8月出台的楼市新政推动下，9月，北京楼市成交量显著回升，新 房、二手房9月网签成交套数分别为3464套和15843套，环比8月增长约10%和17%。这个国庆中秋假期， 北京楼市交易情况如何？来看记者的探访。 在北京市通州区一个新房项目，购房人郭女士和先生正在看房。 记者：整个假期，今天是看了第几天房了？ 北京市通州区某商品房项目营销负责人 解文广：到国庆节，我们基本上每天都是在120到150组的客户。 我们的销售转化，每天会在八到十组认购客户之间的成交量。 此外，"好房子"政策的落地也在推动新房项目销售。在北京通州另一个新房项目，记者看到，实景示范区 直观展示了北京"好房子"政策带来的房屋功能和品质的升级。 北京市通州区某商品房项目营销负责人 张文言：我们持续有实景展示区的呈现，相当于是在全维度上面 都可以给客户做到实景的呈现效果。"十一"假期，目前每天到访50到60组客户，随着客户从外地陆续返 京，整体的到访量跟成交量可能还会有进一步的上升。 转载请注明央视财经 北京购房人 郭女士：是第二天。我们原来有一套房子，现在准备要生孩子，想置换更大一点的。 郭女士正在考虑的这个项目 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The implementation of stable growth policies in the building materials sector is expected to strengthen anti-involution efforts, leading to potential growth opportunities [1][4] - The report highlights a rebound in industrial profits and improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI), driven by anti-involution measures [4] - The report recommends several companies, including Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and Qibin Group, as well as consumer building materials firms like Oppein Home and Arrow Bathroom, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The building materials sector experienced a decline of 2.11% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, which gained 1.07% and 0.25% respectively [4] - The average price of high-standard cement nationwide is reported at 351.0 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 5.3 CNY/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 35.0 CNY/ton [4][18] - The average cement inventory ratio is 65.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last week [25] 2. Cement Market - The report notes a slight decrease in cement demand due to weather conditions, with an average shipment rate of 46.5%, down 1.9 percentage points from last week [25] - The report anticipates that cement companies will continue to push for price increases as the fourth quarter approaches, with expectations for a rebound in prices [4][11] - Recommendations include leading companies such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from industry consolidation and improved profitability [11] 3. Glass Market - The average price of float glass is reported at 1224.7 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 16.8 CNY/ton and a year-on-year increase of 47.6% [4] - The report suggests that the glass industry is currently facing a supply-demand stalemate, but mid-term supply-side adjustments are expected to improve pricing dynamics [13] - Flagship companies like Qibin Group are recommended due to their competitive advantages in resource access and potential profit growth from diversified business lines [13] 4. Fiberglass Market - The report indicates that the profitability of fiberglass is expected to improve in the medium term, with a focus on high-end products [12] - The report highlights that the industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in supply pressure, which is likely to stabilize prices [12][13] - Companies such as China Jushi are recommended for their strong market position and growth potential in emerging applications [12][13] 5. Consumer Building Materials - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies on consumer demand for building materials, with expectations for continued growth in the sector [14] - Companies like Oppein Home and Arrow Bathroom are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for recovery in consumer spending [14] - The report suggests that the competitive landscape is improving, with many companies showing signs of profit recovery and growth strategies [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3]. Core Views - The report suggests that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It anticipates that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline being further introduced. Core cities are expected to lead the recovery as they approach the bottom of the market [3][29]. - The "Good House" policy is expected to create a new development track with "new products, new pricing, and new models," which will improve the real estate market in core cities with lower penetration rates [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 34 key cities saw a total new housing transaction volume of 2.458 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%. First and second-tier cities increased by 15.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant rise of 43.8% [4][29]. - For September 2025, the total new housing transaction volume in 34 cities was 8.078 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 13 key cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction volume of 1.148 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.8%. Cumulatively, September's transaction volume was 4.235 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 21.2% [12][29]. New Housing Inventory - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities had a total of 1.48 million square meters of new housing launched, with a total inventory of 90.309 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. The average monthly deprecation period was 24.8 months, an increase of 1.8 months [20][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights significant government efforts to stabilize the real estate market, including over 1.6 trillion yuan in funding for key projects and a 52% annual increase in rental housing loans. Local governments are also implementing various supportive measures, such as home purchase subsidies and policies to improve land use efficiency [29][30]. - Shanghai has introduced new regulations to standardize balcony capacity and facade materials, while Dongguan has launched a new home purchase subsidy policy [29][30]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings issued USD 1.6 billion in overseas bonds, while Poly Developments announced a plan to issue up to 15 billion yuan in corporate bonds. Other companies like China Merchants Shekou and CIFI Group are also actively engaging in financing activities [33][35]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 1.07%. The report notes that the real estate sector ranked 11th among 31 sectors in terms of performance [41][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][4]. - The report highlights significant policy support, including over 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for three major projects to stabilize the real estate market and support the delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [31][32]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of a new development track driven by favorable housing policies, which will enhance the penetration of quality housing in core cities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.458 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities rose by 15.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant increase of 43.8% [4][12]. - In September, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 8.078 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.148 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.8%. Cumulatively, September transactions were up 21.2% year-on-year [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.48 million square meters of new housing, with a transaction volume of 950,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.64. The total available residential area in these cities was 90.309 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [21][22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that various local governments are implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including subsidies for home purchases and regulations to improve housing quality [31][32]. - Shanghai has introduced new regulations to standardize balcony measurements and support the renovation of old residential areas [31][32]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings issued USD 1.6 billion in overseas bonds, while Poly Developments announced a plan to issue corporate bonds not exceeding 150 billion yuan [38][39]. - The report tracks significant financing activities, including guarantees provided by major companies for their subsidiaries [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials sector has shown a positive performance with a weekly increase of 2.45%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite and Wind All A indices, which rose by 1.38% and 2.12% respectively, resulting in excess returns of 1.07% and 0.33% [2][3] Group 1: Cement Market - The national high-standard cement market price is 344.0 CNY/ton, up by 1.3 CNY/ton from last week, but down by 40.7 CNY/ton compared to the same period in 2024 [3][8] - Average cement inventory among sample enterprises is 65.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from last week and 0.2 percentage points from 2024 [3] - The average cement shipment rate is 46.7%, up by 0.9 percentage points from last week but down by 4.5 percentage points from 2024 [3] Group 2: Glass Market - The average price of float glass is 1197.0 CNY/ton, increasing by 4.0 CNY/ton from last week but down by 86.9 CNY/ton from 2024 [3] - The inventory of sample enterprises for float glass is 55 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.04 million heavy boxes from last week and 8.62 million heavy boxes from 2024 [3] - The domestic market for fiberglass has seen slight price increases, with mainstream prices for 2400tex alkali-free yarn ranging from 3250 to 3700 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 50-150 CNY/ton from previous periods [3][6] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market [4][10] - The cement industry is anticipated to see a rebound in prices due to improved supply-demand balance and the exit of zombie capacities, with leading companies likely to benefit from this optimization [8] - The fiberglass sector is projected to experience a recovery in profitability as supply pressures ease and demand from new applications in renewable energy and electric vehicles grows [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector [2][3][34] Core Viewpoints - The investment side remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 12.9% in investment from January to August 2025, and a more significant drop of 19.5% in August alone [1][20] - The sales side is also experiencing a downturn, with a cumulative sales area decrease of 4.7% year-on-year from January to August 2025, and a sharper decline of 10.6% in August [21][34] - Funding sources are showing a narrowing decline, with total funding sources down 8.0% year-on-year from January to August 2025, but domestic loans have turned positive [35] Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to August 2025, total real estate development investment reached 603.09 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with August alone seeing a 19.5% decline [3][20] - New construction area decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the completion area fell by 17.0% [20][21] - The report predicts a continued weak investment environment, with forecasts of a 11.0% decline in investment, 15.1% in new construction, and 20.0% in completions for 2025 [20] Sales Side - Cumulative sales area from January to August 2025 was 570 million square meters, down 4.7% year-on-year, with a 10.6% drop in August [21][34] - The total sales amount for the same period was 5.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.3% decrease year-on-year, with August sales amounting to 544.9 billion yuan, down 14.0% [21][34] - The average selling price of commercial housing decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a slight increase in August compared to July [33][34] Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development enterprises amounted to 6.4 trillion yuan from January to August 2025, down 8.0% year-on-year [35] - Domestic loans showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with August seeing a 1.1% rise [35] - The report indicates that while funding remains slightly tight, it is expected to improve gradually due to recent policy relaxations [35]

Group 1 - The "Good House" policy is making the real estate market in core cities healthier, with the first opening sales rate in 14 first-tier cities ranging from 78% to 83%, significantly higher than historical rates, indicating strong demand for high-quality housing [1] - In Shanghai, prices for high-end improved new homes and second-hand homes for first-time buyers have stabilized and are beginning to improve, suggesting a faster overall recovery in the Shanghai real estate market [1] - The shift in buyer preferences from "having a place to live" to "living well" is driving strong demand for improved housing, but there is a shortage of quality homes, particularly in core cities [1] Group 2 - The "Good House" policy provides new opportunities for real estate companies and drives industry transformation, allowing them to sell high-quality homes at higher prices due to relaxed price controls [2] - Companies that focus on high-quality housing in core cities, such as China Resources Land, are expected to emerge from the downturn, shifting their business model from quick profits to a more sustainable, product-focused approach [2] - The policy emphasizes the essence of housing as a place to live, promoting green, low-carbon, intelligent, and safe homes, thereby reducing the financial attributes of real estate and encouraging a return to manufacturing principles [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the broad housing demand in China has bottomed out, but the price and volume have not entered a positive cycle as expected. The real estate industry faces challenges from weakened household balance sheets and policy constraints requiring high-quality development without overall leverage [4][5][6]. - The "Good House" policy is seen as a potential breakthrough strategy that could lead to a fivefold positive resonance in core cities, gradually achieving a recovery driven by structural improvements [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Status: Challenges in Real Estate Fundamentals and Policy Constraints - Broad housing demand is estimated to have bottomed out, with total transactions stabilizing around 1.4 billion square meters [15][22]. - New home sales have decreased from 1.57 billion square meters in 2021 to an estimated 0.81 billion square meters in 2024, a cumulative decline of 48%, while second-hand home sales have increased by 64% during the same period [15][22]. - The key issue in the real estate sector is not demand but purchasing power, with a trend of consumption downgrade evident in the market [22][31]. 2. Breakthrough Strategy: "Good House" Policy Leading to Fivefold Positive Resonance - The "Good House" policy aims to create new products and markets, enhancing the price system under conditions of supply scarcity and relatively abundant demand [4][6]. - The report identifies five positive resonances: policy strength of "Good House," urban renewal, housing consumption upgrade, wealth reallocation under capital controls, and stock market strength [4][6]. - Potential benefits include expected further reductions in mortgage rates and loosening of purchase restrictions, which could drive improvements in core cities [4][6]. 3. Core Cities: Hong Kong Has Reversed, Shanghai and Other Core Cities Nearing Bottom - Hong Kong's real estate market has experienced a turnaround due to four positive factors, including talent policies and stock market gains [4][6]. - Other core cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen are also showing signs of improvement, with Shanghai expected to be the next city to see a bottoming out [4][6]. 4. Investment Analysis Opinion: "Good House" as a Breakthrough Strategy - The report emphasizes that the "Good House" policy could lead to a structural recovery in the real estate market, benefiting quality real estate companies positioned in core cities [4][5][6]. - Recommended companies include those with strong product capabilities and undervalued recovery potential, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management firms [4][5].