Hi~ 朋友们 不知道你有没有意识到 美元今年是跌惨了 上半年是近半个世纪 表现最差的一年 从年初到现在 美元指数已经下跌了超过10% 你别觉得10%没多少啊 这可是美元 不是什么比特币 这是全球资产的标尺 这个尺子半年里头缩短了10% 约等于所有人都长高了10% 与此同时 全球的资产价格都出现了久违的爆发 最猛的就是黄金 你就看这张图 这是过去半个世纪黄金的走势 我只能用疯狂来形容 比特币也是创出了新高 也疯狂 不过它可能一直都挺疯狂 除此之外 全球的股市也是 什么美股 欧股 A股 港股 日股 它全涨 事出反常必有妖 这个妖在哪里 咱们今天就来看看 这个美元暴跌的背后 今天呢 我来跟大家来一个专业一点 但同时又很直观很有意思的方式来聊 就是看图说话 来先看几张图 这个是美元指数 而这个是美股标普500指数 你看啊 之前股市跟美元相关性还是非常高的 大家是一起涨一起跌 但你看这两个人 手拉手高高兴兴共振着呢 怎么5月份开始 刚振到一半 股票就说哎 "算了不跟你玩了" 自己跑了 美元一个人孤零零的留在了底下 我再给你看个共振得更happy的 这个是美元指数 和美国10年期国债利率的共振 也是之前玩的好好的 5月 ...

关键时刻，特朗普预告大动作。 在美国政府"停摆"的背景下，美国总统特朗普当地时间10月3日晚间宣布，将于10月5日在弗吉尼亚州诺 福克市主持一场盛大的美国海军庆典，以庆祝美国海军250周年纪念日。他特别强调，这场活动将是美 国"海军史上规模最大的庆典"。 值得注意的是，美国政府"停摆"的影响正在显现。10月4日，据央视新闻，美国国务院网站最新公告显 示，受政府"停摆"影响，部分美国国内对领事服务的支持将被暂停，美国务院网站内容的更新也受到限 制。标普全球评级表示，经济部门估计，美国联邦政府"停摆"每持续一周，经济增长就可能下降0.1— 0.2个百分点。 特朗普重大预告 10月4日，据环球网综合英国《独立报》、乌克兰国家新闻社（UNN）等媒体报道，在因美国政府"停 摆"导致美军人员面临无薪工作的背景下，美国总统特朗普当地时间10月3日晚间在其社交平台上宣布， 他将于10月5日在弗吉尼亚州诺福克市主持一场盛大的美国海军庆典，以庆祝美国海军即将于10月13日 迎来的250周年纪念日。他称这场活动将是美国"海军史上规模最大的庆典"。 特朗普在帖文中表示，他将与夫人梅拉尼娅、国防部长赫格塞思及海军部长费伦共同参加此次庆 ...

Group 1 - Policymakers are facing challenges due to the government's shutdown, which is expected to withhold employment data [1]

Core Insights - The monthly government jobs numbers will be delayed, prompting private firms to step in to provide employment data [1] Group 1 - The absence of timely government jobs data creates a gap that private firms are addressing by offering alternative employment statistics [1] - Private sector involvement in labor market data collection may enhance the accuracy and timeliness of employment insights [1]

媒体援引美国参议院银行委员会助理报道称，劳工统计局（BLS）可能准备好发布9月劳动力数据，数 据已经收集完毕。参议院民主党成员Warren针对数据问题写信给BLS代理局长。此前，BLS宣布，美国 政府停摆期间，不会发布就业数据。按惯例，9月非农就业报告将在10月3日发布。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Insights - The ADP report unexpectedly became the focus of the market due to the absence of official employment data from the U.S. government, which is currently in a shutdown [1] - The report indicated a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, significantly below market expectations, leading to initial declines in U.S. stock index futures and a drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield [1][3] - The report raised more questions than answers regarding the U.S. economic situation, complicating investors' assessments [3] Group 1: ADP Report Analysis - The ADP report has historically been inconsistent in predicting official non-farm employment data, and this month's report was particularly unusual [4] - A technical recalibration based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) led to a reduction of 43,000 jobs in the ADP report, indicating that market interpretations of weak data should be approached with caution [4] - The reliance of private data on official statistics highlights the challenges in data collection and the limitations of private data providers [5] Group 2: Challenges in Data Collection - Data collection is a labor-intensive and costly process, and private data providers are not yet equipped to independently guide the market [5] - Although alternative data from private suppliers is becoming valuable, it is often only accessible to institutional investors and lacks uniform quality [5] - The public sector's role in data collection is crucial, especially for specific demographic employment data, which private entities may not prioritize due to a lack of profit motivation [5] Group 3: Issues with Official Statistics - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faces challenges, including budget cuts and resource constraints, which have raised concerns about data quality [6] - The BLS has been criticized for unevenly disclosing data to a select group of "super users," further undermining confidence in its statistics [6] - Political pressures have also affected the BLS, as seen in the previous administration's actions that questioned the integrity of the agency [6]

Core Insights - The private sector experienced a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected gain of 45,000 jobs, following a downward revision of August's figures from 54,000 to a loss of 3,000 jobs [1][3] - The overall labor market is showing signs of weakness, particularly with small companies losing 40,000 jobs while only large corporations gained 33,000 jobs [2][3] Private-Sector Jobs Data Breakdown - The ratio of goods-producing to services jobs remained stable, with goods jobs down by 3,000 and services jobs down by 28,000 [2] - Education and Healthcare sectors led job creation with 33,000 new jobs, while sectors like Trade/Transportation/Utilities, Professional/Business Services, and Leisure & Hospitality saw losses of 7,000, 13,000, and 19,000 jobs respectively [4] Income Change Metrics - Job Stayers saw a 4.5% increase in income compared to a year ago, while Job Changers experienced a 6.6% increase, indicating a narrowing gap in income growth [5] Market Reaction - Pre-market futures showed a negative response to the job numbers, with the Dow down 160 points, S&P 500 down 30 points, and Nasdaq down 130 points, suggesting expectations for potential interest rate cuts [6] Government Shutdown Impact - The federal government shutdown is likely to hinder further job reports from the U.S. Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, limiting insights into the labor market's current state [7]

Core Insights - Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported a decline of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, significantly below the expected increase of 45,000 jobs [1] - The August figures were revised down from an initial gain of 54,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000 jobs [1] - The overall labor market appears to be weakening, with the federal government shutdown likely exacerbating the situation [3][7] Private-Sector Job Breakdown - The job losses were primarily in small companies (under 50 employees) which lost 40,000 jobs, while medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) shed 20,000 jobs [2] - Large corporations (500+ employees) were the only segment to gain jobs, adding 33,000 positions [2] - By industry, Education & Healthcare added 33,000 jobs, while sectors like Trade/Transportation/Utilities, Professional/Business Services, and Leisure & Hospitality experienced losses of 7,000, 13,000, and 19,000 jobs respectively [4] Income Change Metrics - Job Stayers saw a 4.5% increase in income compared to a year ago, while Job Changers experienced a 6.6% increase, indicating a narrowing gap in income growth [5] Market Reaction - Pre-market futures showed a negative reaction to the job numbers, with the Dow down 160 points, S&P 500 down 30 points, and Nasdaq down 130 points [6] - Bond yields, particularly for the 10-year and 2-year, also declined, suggesting expectations for potential interest rate cuts [6] Future Job Data Expectations - Due to the government shutdown, further job data from the U.S. Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is unlikely to be released this week, limiting insights into the labor market [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses various economic indicators and events scheduled for October, including employment data and consumer confidence indices in the US and Eurozone [2][3] - Key dates include the release of the US September ADP employment numbers and the unemployment rate, as well as the Eurozone's August unemployment rate [2] - The article highlights the importance of the US non-farm payroll data and the consumer confidence index for October, which are critical for assessing economic health [3] Group 2 - The article mentions the upcoming release of China's September industrial profits and the significance of these figures for understanding the country's economic performance [3] - It also notes the scheduled announcements from central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, which could impact market expectations [3] - The article emphasizes the relevance of oil inventory data and production numbers, which are crucial for the energy sector [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The inability to access employment data during a government shutdown would be extremely detrimental for economic analysis and decision-making [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee expressed concerns about the impact of a government shutdown on the availability of employment data [1] - The lack of employment data during a shutdown would create significant challenges for economic assessments [1] - Goolsbee highlighted the importance of timely employment data for understanding economic conditions [1]