对于促进房地产市场筑底回稳最需要加力的政策，将近90%房企受访者认为要取消限购等限制性政策； 超过55%的房企受访者认为应降低房贷利率，降低住房公积金贷款利率、提高公积金贷款额度，降低住 房贷款的首付比例。金融机构受访者更关注增量市场，超过55%的受访者认为应大规模开展城市更新， 执行货币化或房票安置；50%的受访者认为应加大政府收储力度，全面推进国企收购的"以旧换新"，并 且取消限购等限制性政策。 对于2026年全国商品房销售面积，93%的房企受访者都认为将下降，认为同比降幅超过5%的受访者比 例达到64%，认为同比降幅在5%以内的受访者将近30%。有78%的金融机构受访者认为2026年全国商品 房销售面积将下降，其中半数受访者认为同比下降将会超过5%，28%的受访者认为同比下降幅度将在 5%以内，另有11%的受访者认为明年全国商品房销售面积将同比增长0—5%。 对于2026年全国住宅成交价格，近一半的房企受访者认为2026年均价将会同比下降超5%，另一半认为 同比下降将会在0—5%之间。金融机构受访者中有67%认为2026年全国住宅市场成交均价将会下跌超过 5%，17%受访者认为下降幅度将会处于0—5%之 ...

广发宏观周度述评（第40期） 广发宏观周度述评 （ 第1-39期，复盘必读 ） 内容 第一，促进房地产市场回稳的政策空间。 2025年的经济，亮点在出口、"两新"和高技术制造业；短板在固 投、地产，后两个问题又存在一定关联。进一步推动"促进房地产市场止跌回稳"具有重要意义。 实际上我们可以从基本面、资金成本、风险溢价三个角度理解地产止跌回稳的中期政策空间。 房地产的基本面一则来自于居住属性，二则来自租金收益率。 2021年三季度之后一二手房价指数环比转负， 对应地产资产增值属性弱化，逐步回归居住、租金两大基本面属性。对于居住属性来说，鼓励改善性住房 和"好房子"是一个方向，即"加大高品质住房供给"、"因城施策增加改善性住房供给"，我们理解它在思路上相 当于培育一个针对住房升级需求的差异化增量市场，然后再由增量市场逐步替代存量市场，这个和汽车市场的 发展升级有相似性。清理"不合理限制性措施"也属于充分释放居住属性的政策方向。 再看租金收益率。近年随着房价调整，租金收益率初步修复。 住宅百城租金收益率至2025年10月已回升至 2.36%左右，相对于中证货币基金指数等定价锚已经有一定吸引力。但城市之间相对分化，一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a decrease in the year-on-year decline of housing prices across various cities, indicating a potential recovery phase [1][2][5]. Price Trends - In September, new home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively [3]. - Year-on-year, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7%, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]. - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased, with Shanghai leading at a 5.6% year-on-year increase [4]. Market Analysis - Industry experts suggest that the real estate market is still undergoing deep adjustments, but the trend towards stabilization is evident, with some cities entering a recovery phase [6]. - The average month-on-month decline in second-hand home prices has decreased from 0.91% before the "9.26 new policy" last year to 0.58% this year, indicating a narrowing of price declines [6][7]. - The combination of recent policy measures is seen as a key driver for the improvement in year-on-year price metrics [7]. Future Outlook - The expectation is that from October to December, the year-on-year decline in housing prices across various cities will continue to narrow, with first-tier cities potentially seeing a shift from negative to positive growth [2][7].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in housing prices across various cities, indicating a potential recovery phase ahead [2][7][9]. Price Trends - In September, new home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.6% and 1.0% [4]. - Year-on-year, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7%, but this decline is narrowing compared to previous months, with Shanghai showing a significant increase of 5.6% [4][5]. - The number of cities with rising new home prices has increased, with 5 cities reporting month-on-month increases in September, down from 9 in August [5]. Market Sentiment - Industry experts believe that while the market is still undergoing adjustments, the overall trend remains positive, with some cities entering a phase of stabilization [7][8]. - The narrowing year-on-year decline in housing prices is seen as a positive signal, suggesting a more solid foundation for market recovery [8]. Policy Impact - Recent policy measures introduced since August are identified as key drivers for the improvement in year-on-year housing price metrics [8]. - The market is expected to continue a "weak recovery, strong differentiation" trend in the fourth quarter, with an overall transaction decline projected to be around 10% for the year [9].

Summary of Yuexiu Property Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yuexiu Property - **Industry**: Real Estate Key Points Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yuexiu Property reported a revenue increase of 35% year-on-year, primarily driven by contributions from core cities [2][6] - The average sales price increased to 35,000 RMB per square meter, up from 24,000 RMB per square meter last year [2][6] - Operating cash flow showed a net inflow of 4.1 billion RMB, with cash reserves around 50 billion RMB, indicating a strong financial position [2][6] - Financing costs decreased by 41 basis points to 3.16% year-on-year [2][6] Land Acquisition and Investment - In the first half of 2025, the company acquired 13 new land parcels totaling approximately 1.48 million square meters, with 68% located in first-tier cities [2][4] - The total land bank as of mid-2025 is 20.43 million square meters, corresponding to a value of 320 billion RMB, with over 94% concentrated in first and second-tier cities [2][7] - The company plans to focus future land acquisitions in key cities such as Guangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu [4][7] Sales and Market Outlook - For the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative sales reached 79.8 billion RMB, a 3% increase year-on-year, achieving 66% of the annual target [3] - The sales target for 2025 is set at 120.5 billion RMB, with expectations to increase supply in the last two months of the year [3][8] - The company anticipates a slight decline in sales during the October Golden Week compared to last year due to a high base effect [3][8] Strategic Focus - The company will continue to concentrate on first-tier cities and gradually reduce investments in weaker regions [2][7] - A flexible sales strategy is being implemented to adapt to market changes, optimizing product structure to stabilize sales performance [2][8] - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency through internal adjustments and maintain financial stability with sufficient cash reserves [2][8] Profitability and Margins - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was reported at 10.6%, considered relatively low [4][15] - The company expects the overall settlement gross margin to remain around 10%, although there is uncertainty due to potential inventory impairments [4][15] - The land acquisition margin is targeted at 15%-16%, while the sales gross margin is approximately 13%-14% [4][15][16] Market Environment and Risks - The real estate market is experiencing instability, with a cautious outlook for financial forecasts [11] - The company does not foresee significant tail risks in its financials, maintaining a stable level of inventory impairment [11] - Future investment strategies will focus on high-certainty projects, avoiding speculative investments in third-tier cities [17] Policy and Economic Context - The Guangzhou real estate market may rely on financial policies, such as adjustments in mortgage rates, to support future growth [14][15] - The company is actively involved in local economic adjustments, focusing on sectors like AI to drive long-term market development [14][15] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Yuexiu Property's financial performance, strategic focus, market outlook, and the broader economic context affecting the real estate industry.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China Construction Bank (CCB) has seen significant growth in its housing loan business, with a focus on adapting to market changes and enhancing competitive capabilities [1][2] - In the first half of the year, CCB's new personal housing loan interest rate decreased from 3.11% in Q1 to 3.08% in Q2, indicating a favorable lending environment [1] - As of the end of June, CCB's personal housing loan balance reached 6.15 trillion yuan, maintaining the top position in the industry [1] Group 2 - CCB reported a more than 20% increase in second-hand housing loan issuance compared to the same period last year, contributing an additional 43.6 billion yuan to overall loan growth [1] - The balance of CCB's second-hand housing loans reached 1.89 trillion yuan, also leading the industry [1] - The bank anticipates that the performance of the housing loan business for the entire year will surpass that of the previous year, supported by ongoing government measures to stabilize the real estate market [2]

Core Viewpoint - S&P has assigned a "BBB-" investment-grade credit rating with a stable outlook to Yuexiu Property, marking the first positive investment-grade rating for a Chinese real estate company since mid-2024, indicating a return of confidence in the Chinese real estate market [1] Group 1: Credit Rating and Market Confidence - S&P's report highlights Yuexiu Property's focus on first-tier and strong second-tier cities, which contributes to its positive market reputation [1] - The company's land reserves are highly concentrated in economically resilient cities, providing a solid foundation for future performance [1] - The strategic importance placed on Yuexiu Property by its parent group and expected government policy support are seen as crucial for its business development [1] Group 2: Sales Performance and Market Trends - In the first half of the year, Yuexiu Property reported strong performance, with July's contract sales reaching 6.006 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [2] - Cumulative contract sales for the first seven months amounted to approximately 67.506 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year growth, ranking second among the top 10 real estate companies [2] - The launch of high-quality projects has led to impressive sales, with notable performances in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, significantly boosting the company's overall sales rate [2] Group 3: Policy Support and Future Outlook - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for "strong measures" to stabilize the real estate market, which is expected to support Yuexiu Property's continued growth in the second half of the year [2] - Analysts predict that with the gradual release of policies, Yuexiu Property is likely to achieve its annual sales targets [2] - Several brokerage firms, including Credit Lyonnais and GF Securities, maintain a "buy" rating on Yuexiu Property, with Credit Lyonnais raising its target price to 5.1 HKD [2]

Core Viewpoint - S&P has assigned a "BBB-" investment-grade credit rating with a stable outlook to Yuexiu Property, marking the first positive investment-grade rating for a Chinese real estate company since mid-2024, indicating a return of confidence in the Chinese real estate market [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Yuexiu Property achieved strong performance in the first half of the year, with a contract sales amount of 6.006 billion yuan in July, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [1] - The cumulative contract sales for the first seven months reached approximately 67.506 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.7%, ranking second among the top 10 real estate companies in terms of growth rate [1] Group 2: Project Sales - The sales performance of high-quality projects launched by Yuexiu Property this year has been particularly outstanding, with the HeYue WangYun and HeYue YuMing projects in Beijing generating sales of 15.2 billion yuan, setting a local market record [2] - The Shanghai JingAn TianYue project sold out upon opening, achieving sales of 2.3 billion yuan, while the "Guangfu Series" products in Guangzhou, such as LongYue XiGuan and XiYue JiangWan, have also been selling well [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for "strong measures" to stabilize the real estate market during a State Council meeting, suggesting a supportive policy environment for the industry [2] - Analysts from various brokerage firms, including Credit Lyonnais and GF Securities, maintain a "buy" rating on Yuexiu Property, with Credit Lyonnais raising its target price to 5.1 HKD [2]

Core Insights - Guangxi is implementing a series of real estate policies to stabilize the market, including the introduction of "housing vouchers," accelerated renovation of dilapidated houses, and the acquisition of existing commercial housing using housing provident fund gains [1][2] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - By the first half of 2025, Guangxi plans to launch a combination of policies aimed at expanding housing solutions and improving the real estate market [1] - The province has already become one of the first in the country to complete acquisition projects and issue property rights certificates for allocated affordable housing [1] Group 2: Market Performance - As of June 30, Guangxi has acquired 20,000 units of existing commercial housing, which has increased the sales area growth rate of commercial housing by 9.35 percentage points [1] - The inventory of commercial housing in Guangxi has decreased by 21.1% year-on-year, boosting consumer confidence and releasing pent-up demand [1] Group 3: Investment and Development - In the first half of this year, investment in urban village renovations reached 6.366 billion RMB, contributing to a 10.2 percentage point increase in overall real estate development investment [2] - The renovation of urban villages has effectively stimulated housing demand, with new housing projects experiencing strong sales [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Guangxi aims to lead housing consumption upgrades through the supply of quality housing and innovative consumption scenarios, such as "cultural tourism + housing" [2] - The province is focused on steadily promoting investment recovery and further stabilizing the real estate market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi is implementing a series of real estate policies to stabilize the market, including the introduction of "housing vouchers," accelerated renovation of dilapidated houses, and the acquisition of existing commercial housing using housing provident fund gains [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - In the first half of 2025, Guangxi plans to launch a combination of policies aimed at expanding housing vouchers, speeding up the renovation of old and dangerous houses, and promoting orderly urban village transformations [1]. - The province has already become one of the first in the country to complete acquisition projects, obtain loans for allocated affordable housing, and implement financial subsidies for the acquisition of existing housing [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - As of June 30, Guangxi has acquired 20,000 existing commercial housing units, which has increased the sales area growth rate of commercial housing in the region by 9.35 percentage points [1]. - The inventory of commercial housing in Guangxi has decreased by 21.1% year-on-year, boosting consumer confidence and releasing both rigid and improved housing demand [1]. Group 3: Investment and Development - In the first half of this year, investment in urban village renovations reached 6.366 billion RMB, contributing to a 10.2 percentage point increase in overall real estate development investment in Guangxi [2]. - The renovation of urban villages has effectively stimulated housing demand, with projects in Nanning and Liuzhou seeing significant sales and land purchase fees increasing by 164.4% year-on-year [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Guangxi aims to lead housing consumption upgrades through the supply of quality housing, improve mechanisms for digesting existing housing, and innovate in utilizing emotional consumption scenarios [2].